Could Gary Johnson appeal to broader GOP?

[Omar Little]

Gary Johnson, former governor (R) of New Mexico, declared his candidacy for POTUS a little over a week ago.

He slashed New Mexico's budget and left it with a healty surplus when leaving office. He also campaigned for the decriminalization of marijuana.

Handicap his chances to get to the general election for POTUS in November 2012.

[Boyo Jim]

I'm kind of a political news junkie and I've never heard his name before this thread. So I will start by saying he has zero national name recognition.

That's all I can contribute because I know nothing about his reputation as governor, or whether he is considered centrist, right wing, or what.

[Jas09]

Agreed with Jim, although I had actually heard of Johnson, but only vaguely. And I'm someone that was up on Mitch Daniels some time ago, as well as Herman Cain and John Huntsman. If you're below those folks, you got some catching up to do.

Although I will admit that until today I didn't actually know that Herman Cain is black. So maybe I'm not as informed as I'd like to think.

[Boyo Jim]

Agreed with Jim, although I had actually heard of Johnson, but only vaguely. And I'm someone that was up on Mitch Daniels some time ago, as well as Herman Cain and John Huntsman. If you're below those folks, you got some catching up to do.

Although I will admit that until today I didn't actually know that Herman Cain is black. So maybe I'm not as informed as I'd like to think.

Yes, I have some familiarity with all those names and their political stances.

[Captain Amazing]

He doesn't have a chance. He's a libertarian, believes in drug legalization, and nobody outside of New Mexico has heard of him.

[Simplicio]

Kind of impressive he's managed to generate so little buzz. I mean, apparently he was a governor for eight years, so its not like he isn't a legitimate candidate. But even amongst our more politically aware Dopers, it appears that his campaign for President is completely unknown.

[appleciders]

He seems like someone who could do credibly against Obama in the general but I can't picture him getting out of the primaries.

[BrotherCadfael]

"President Johnson" Hmmm... it does have a rather familiar sound...

[Jas09]

Johnson fans can see him in action in the first GOP primary debate tomorrow night, against a stellar lineup of Herman Cain, Rick Santorum, Tim Pawlenty, and Ron Paul. Make sure to set your DVRs.

[Lamar Mundane]

Johnson fans can see him in action in the first GOP primary debate tomorrow night, against a stellar lineup of Herman Cain, Rick Santorum, Tim Pawlenty, and Ron Paul. Make sure to set your DVRs.

Two hardcore Libertarians, a Tea Partier, a social issue Christian, and one serious candidate. Pawlenty may come to realize the wisdom of the saying "Never get into a wrestling match with a pig - you'll both end up covered in mud, and the pig likes it."

Might be fun to watch.

[Chronos]

What's his stance on immigration? Coming from a southwestern state, I'd think that'd be pretty relevant.

[HardyMacia]

It's early yet in the primary season. No one heard of Obama, Clinton, Carter, Dean, Kerry before the primaries were up and running.

Johnson has a great record as governor. If he can make it out of the primaries he probably has the best shot against Obama. Johnson was at 2% in polls in NM 3 months prior to election, upset the GOP endorsed candidate, then went on to beat the incumbent Democratic governor in a state that is 2-to-1 democrat.

You can find his stance on some issues on his campaign site http://www.garyjohnson2012.com

[Simplicio]

It's early yet in the primary season. No one heard of Obama, Clinton, Carter, Dean, Kerry before the primaries were up and running.

BS. Obama had been floated as a candidate almost immediately after his speech at the 2004 Democratic National Convention. Clinton was a popular candidate for a Presidential nominee as early as 1988, Dean not only was well known before the primaries were up and running, but thats pretty much the only time he was considered a contender as his fortunes sunk pretty fast after Iowa, John Kerry was of course already famous as a longstanding Senator, and at this point in the 2004 cycle, had already been running for six months.

Indeed, while the idea of someone coming out of nowhere and winning the nomination seems popular, so far as I can tell, it never happens. In every election I can remember, a couple people emerge as likely candidates two years or more before the election, and the nominees invariably ends up being two of those people. Candidates that try and jump in at the last minute, like Wesley Clark or Fred Thompson, quickly go down in flames.

[CyclopticXander]

I had a chance to meet him at the debates and have a few nice chats with him. He is very smart and just a super nice guy. He has a great thoughtful demeanor, but the fact that I, as a huge liberal, find him slightly appealing as a candidate cannot bode well for his primary chances.

He is very socially liberal. Whether or not he would classify himself as such, he is actually to the left of many mainstream democrats on issues ranging from same-sex marriage to immigration to drug legalization and even abortion, and he's quite unapologetic about it. Whereas most Republican candidates who held these views would just hope it doesn't come up and beat around the issue when it did, these things were basically the first things he told me about himself.

He is very popular in New Mexico actually, even among democrats. But in this current field he is already competing with the super popular Ron Paul for the libertarian inclined voter. The only major policy difference I can see to differentiate the two at this point is that Johnson is pro-choice, so take that for what it's worth.

[CyclopticXander]

And also he got the dumbest question in the history of presidential debates, so obviously Fox News doesn't take him too seriously.

If you saw the debate you know exactly which question I'm talking about.

[Crane]

Gary Johnson - president - surely you jest!

He was a Libertarian gov who simply vetoed every bill placed on his desk. Even one originated by his wife. He unvetoed that one after she got a hold of him.

I met him a couple of times and found him to be simplistic. He spends most of his time on physical workouts.

The Republicans panicked when Johnson went public with his plan to legalize drugs. They distanced themselves so far from Johnson that I assume his present run is on his own $$$.

Crane

[Really Not All That Bright]

He's much too ugly to win a national election. And yes, I'm quite serious. We don't elect ugly people.

[Crane]

Perhaps so, but I'd rather think of it as the charisma of a used toothpick.

How about Nixon?

Crane

[Simplicio]

He's much too ugly to win a national election. And yes, I'm quite serious. We don't elect ugly people.

Eh? he's not a super-model (http://www.google.com/search?um=1&hl=en&client=ubuntu&channel=fs&biw=1147&bih=874&tbm=isch&sa=1&q=gary+johnson+new+mexico&aq=f&aqi=g1&aql=&oq=), but I don't see him as particularly ugly. We've certainly elected worse as far as looks go.

[Backcountry Medic]

Count me as another political junkie the used to live in AZ for most of his term in NM, and I still couldn't pick his face out of a lineup or identify a single position stance he has.

Maybe you haven't been watching much fox news lately, but what odds would anyone give a pro-gay marriage, pro-immigration, pro-choice, marijuana-legalizing, anti-war, anti-torture, defense minimalist in any republican primary? 1 in a Trillion? He has a better chance running as a democrat.

[foolsguinea]

"President Johnson" Hmmm... it does have a rather familiar sound...So...just one term then?

[joebuck20]

And also he got the dumbest question in the history of presidential debates, so obviously Fox News doesn't take him too seriously.

If you saw the debate you know exactly which question I'm talking about.

For those of us who didn't watch the debate, what was the question? And what was his response?

[furt]

Kind of impressive he's managed to generate so little buzz. I mean, apparently he was a governor for eight years, so its not like he isn't a legitimate candidate. But even amongst our more politically aware Dopers, it appears that his campaign for President is completely unknown.People who don't fit neatly into Donkey/Elephant categories get ignored by mainstream media. Johnson is well-known and well-regarded in libertarian circles: e.g. http://reason.com/topics/gary-johnson


He has a good record to run on, and I'd give him a fighting shot as a general election candidate from either party -- but he's not got a snowball's chance of getting any such nomination in either party. Take immigration, which someone asked about: his position (make legal immigration easier, while taking measures to reduce illegal immigration) would make a lot of sense to people in the middle, but is anathema to the hard right or left.

I had high hopes of him having a good showing in New Hampshire and getting a hearing after that, but now I suspect Ron Paul is going to suck up all his oxygen.

[furt]

For those of us who didn't watch the debate, what was the question? And what was his response?

http://watchdog.org/9293/gary-johnson%E2%80%99s-first-gop-debate-%E2%80%9Chey-what-about-me%E2%80%9D/

[Simplicio]

People who don't fit neatly into Donkey/Elephant categories get ignored by mainstream media.

I don't think thats true. Ron Paul seems to do OK. I think he's getting ignored because a) he isn't well funded and b) he's trying to move into a niche that Ron Paul already has pretty much filled.

[The wind of my soul]

I had high hopes of him having a good showing in New Hampshire and getting a hearing after that, but now I suspect Ron Paul is going to suck up all his oxygen.

I absolutely agree. Registered Republicans who lean more Libertarian will vote for Ron Paul, and more staunch/traditional ones won't like Johnson.

What I hope will happen, however, is that Johnson will use the Republican primaries to get media exposure. He will then go on to run, not as a Republican, but as a Libertarian. My understanding is because he is a former governor and not a current one, he can switch his part affiliation with little consequence. (Paul, on the other hand, would have to relinquish his seat in Congress if he were to leave the Republican party.) Then, running as a Libertarian who has hopefully achieved a certain degree of popularity, he will have a better chance at seizing a sizable portion of the votes in the general election.

[joebuck20]

(Paul, on the other hand, would have to relinquish his seat in Congress if he were to leave the Republican party.)

Cite? There have been a number of congresscritters who've switched parties in the middle of their term. Now whether or not Paul would be able to win re-election in his district if he had a different letter by his name is a matter of debate, but he wouldn't automatically lose his seat because he decided to abandon the GOP.

[Really Not All That Bright]

He has a good record to run on, and I'd give him a fighting shot as a general election candidate from either party -- but he's not got a snowball's chance of getting any such nomination in either party. Take immigration, which someone asked about: his position (make legal immigration easier, while taking measures to reduce illegal immigration) would make a lot of sense to people in the middle, but is anathema to the hard right or left.
Uh... what? That is the hard left's position on illegal immigration.
I don't think thats true. Ron Paul seems to do OK. I think he's getting ignored because a) he isn't well funded and b) he's trying to move into a niche that Ron Paul already has pretty much filled.
Not really. Paul is a libertarian in name only; he's a social conservative and a fiscal conservative who is distinct from mainstream Republicans only in that he's okay with pot and anti-war.

Johnson is an actual libertarian, which means he fits into a separate, but more problematic niche. There are lots of people (especially here) whose own policy positions he reflects much more accurately than the "mainstream" candidates, but those people are also (1) practical enough to know he's basically a wasted vote, and (2) split between the two major parties.

[Chronos]

I don't think thats true. Ron Paul seems to do OK.And Ron Paul, despite his rhetoric, fits neatly into the elephant category. I'm continually baffled by how he managed to get a reputation as a libertarian.

[The wind of my soul]

Cite? There have been a number of congresscritters who've switched parties in the middle of their term. Now whether or not Paul would be able to win re-election in his district if he had a different letter by his name is a matter of debate, but he wouldn't automatically lose his seat because he decided to abandon the GOP.

Honestly, this is just hearsay. I thought that was the reason why he didn't run as a Libertarian candidate in the 2008 election. Am I wrong?

[Really Not All That Bright]

Yes. He could theoretically have been kicked out of the Republican Party for running as an independent or on a third party ticket, but they don't control his Congressional seat; he does.

[The wind of my soul]

Cite? There have been a number of congresscritters who've switched parties in the middle of their term. Now whether or not Paul would be able to win re-election in his district if he had a different letter by his name is a matter of debate, but he wouldn't automatically lose his seat because he decided to abandon the GOP.

Ok it looks like I was misinformed. The best information I could find indicates that "In order to be on the GOP Primary Ballot in at least 11 states, including Texas, Ron had to pledge that he would not seek the presidency on another ticket if he failed to secure the GOP nomination. " (This quote is attributed to Jesse Benton, Paul's campaign communications manager in the 2008 election.) So if this rule is still in place, Johnson may be ineligible for a Libertarian run as well.

[Really Not All That Bright]

The pledge probably isn't actually enforceable.

[Chronos]

It certainly isn't enforceable, given that he showed up in the Montana general election under a third party.

[Really Not All That Bright]

He was nominated by a third party, but they didn't actually ask him before putting his name on the ballot. See here (http://www.flatheadbeacon.com/articles/article/ron_paul_wants_off_montana_ballot/5514/).

[Chronos]

Huh, I didn't even realize a party could do that.