10/15/11 - All illegal aliens leave the U.S.

[Typo Negative]

on 10/15/11, all illegal aliens leave the U.S., either by choice or by force. Let's iclude those who are incarcerated. They are released and deported. This is neither pro- nor anti-immigration, take it as a given with no judgment attached.

So........what happens on 10/16/11?

What real effect will there be on social services, the education system, the prison system, the economy?

Obviously there would be some savings because of fewer people incarcerated, in the public school system, in emergency rooms....

But we would also lose a fair amount of our work force, tax revenue and an awful lot of customers.

There was a piece on the Daily Show about farmer not having enough farm workers to harvest his crop. its The Daily Show, so it's comedy, but I can imagine the impact in California if there were no one to pick the crops. Is this a job that Americans will do? If so, they certainly wouldn't do it for the same price. Would the price of strawberries skyrocket? etc...

What will we gain, what will we lose?

[Smitty]

Well, for one, the price of produce would skyrocket. You are definitely right about that. Also, the cost of dining out, as there would be a lack of dishwashers, line cooks and other support staff in restaurants. Ditto for construction costs.

The simple fact is that there are loads of illegals that work at below minimum wage in a lot of industries. You fill those positions with people working at 3 to 5 times as much pay, you increase the cost and therefore the end price.

The unpleasant truth is you need a certain number of illegals unless you are willing to pay a great deal more for a whole lot of things.

[RickJay]

You don't precisely "Need a certain number of illegals." You need a certain number of workers to achieve a certain market-clearning wage price.

If you dramatically reduce the labour pool, you will dramatically jack up the cost of wages in theory. Since illegal immigrants tend to pool in lower-wage jobs, the price of low wage jobs in general would rise dramatically - in theory.

In reality it wouldn't even be that smooth. You'd have gaping problems of inefficiency, since labour doesn't move instantly. Some companies might go bankrupt because their production would be so disrupted. Even companies that employed no illegals at all might be blown out of business because they'd lose a large number of customers who suddenly left the country. So you'd see wages at the low end, and the price of many goods and services, become wildly unpredictable, and some businesses would collapse. Some goods would skyrocket in price while others would not; it would take quite some time for the market to catch up. It'd be quite a lot of unpredictable economic disruption.

The effect would be the same if you removed any large pool of randomly chosen workers who were overwhelmingly in low wage jobs.

Incidentally, most illegals do not work for wages substantially below minimum, but it really doesn't matter; take away a large number of workers and wages will go up and crazy stuff will happen.

[Fear Itself]

Well, for one, the price of produce would skyrocket.No, it wouldn't, because farm labor is not a large percentage of the retail price of produce. While farmworkers comprise 30% of the production cost to the farmer, his total costs comprise only 19% of the retail price. So farmworker wages make up only 6% of the retail price of fresh produce.

http://www.cis.org/no_farm_labor_shortages.html

[Captain Amazing]

The problem is, though, we are seeing farm labor shortages from anti-illegal immigration crackdowns. Alabama and Georgia, which just passed strict laws cracking down on illegal immigration, are seeing some pretty severe labor shortages, especially in agriculture and construction:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/44793734#.To-wn3KZRNp
http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D9Q5JJF81.htm
http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/227258/20111007/alabama-immigration-law-georgia-inmates.htm

From the third, regarding Georgia economic losses:

The labor shortage has already caused an estimated $140 million in losses during Georgia's spring and summer harvest, according to an industry-funded study the Georgia Fruit and Vegetable Growers Association released this week.

The data collected for seven crops-blueberries, Vidalia onions and cucumbers, for instance-totaled $75 million in losses, but the loss figure reached the $140 million level to account for all growers of each commodity.

Further, many farmers responded that they'll cut their acreage or buy mechanical equipment to alleviate the problem. More than half of the vegetable growers who responded said their acreage will decrease.

[asterion]

Exactly. It doesn't matter what the cost of the labor is if most of the crop is left rotting in the fields.

I know it's not a job I could do, no matter what the pay was. I go to the local pick-your-own a few times a year for various crops--berries, cherries, apples, etc.--and pay for the privilege of bending over a lot (for berries at least) and harvesting fruit. Normally I'm totally sick of it after about one container and would probably be in a lot of pain if I had to do it to get paid by the piece as I'm not in shape for that kind of thing.

[Mehitabel]

Don't have a lot of farms here in the big city, but yes, we'd lose a lot of waiters and dishwashers and in this neighborhood, tons of construction and retail workers with charming Irish brogues. And bartenders!

If you're extending the term "illegal aliens" to mean everyone who, due to expired visas or non-work ones, shouldn't be doing what they're doing where they're doing it, lots of students wouldn't show up for classes from kindergarten to doctorate programs. I also think people would be surprised at the numbers of grandparents and old aunts and uncles who would vanish.

[Farmer Jane]

I'm a teacher, so...I'd lose my job.

[Smapti]

11 million people leaving the US all on the same day is going to be HELL on my morning commute, that's for sure.

[Rigamarole]

This was already the premise for a movie (http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0377744/) (OK, technically the premise was that all the Latinos in California disappeared, and I am well aware that most are legal - but most illegals are Latino and the gist of the OP's question was the point of the film).

[nachtmusick]

If all the illegals vanished...

Suddenly there would be a dire need for labor in so many professions that they cannot be listed.

This need for labor would inevitably result in a steep rise in the proffered wages for these jobs, and then the legal unemployed would take them.

The prices of material goods and services would rise to reflect the new wage balance.

I am fine with this, because I would like to think that the price I pay for my daily bread fully compensates the people who baked it.

I do not care to pay lower prices if those prices are driven down through the exploitation of workers who have no other choice but to accept the non-living wage that illegal immigration fosters.

[Budget Player Cadet]

If all the illegals vanished...

Suddenly there would be a dire need for labor in so many professions that they cannot be listed.

This need for labor would inevitably result in a steep rise in the proffered wages for these jobs, and then the legal unemployed would take them.

The prices of material goods and services would rise to reflect the new wage balance.

I am fine with this, because I would like to think that the price I pay for my daily bread fully compensates the people who baked it.

I do not care to pay lower prices if those prices are driven down through the exploitation of workers who have no other choice but to accept the non-living wage that illegal immigration fosters.

But how long do you think you could afford your daily bread if it cost 3, 4, maybe 5 times what it costs now? I know for a fact that my family would last maybe a week, then really end up struggling.

[Saint Cad]

Unemployment is 9.1% and has been for the last three months. This translates into 14 million people out of work (http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm). Plus, This figure does not take into account underemployment, those that are working fewer hours. There are 11 million illegal immigrants in this country, some of which are children. Therefore there are enough out-of-work Americans to take the jobs that are vacated. In 2009 in Maricopa County according to news radio (FWIW), most of the report to INS of illegal immigrants were legal citizens working as day laborers losing employment opportunities.

Some of you are recycling the unfounded assumption that illegal aliens fill jobs that legal residents won't do such as berry picking, dishwashing, etc. Has it ever occurred to you that people do want these jobs but are not hired because the employer knows they can pay less by hiring illegals? The cites about the loss of farm workers is telling, but what does it tell? I suspect it tells us that illegal immigrants are cheaper than machines which are themselves cheaper than minimum wage. You also ignore possibilities of reimplementing legal visa programs such as the bracero program if you are right and certain jobs cannot be filled.

The real impact would be on things everyone consumes such as gasoline (and highway taxes), consumer goods (like groceries) and so on. But lets examine the numbers, there are around 11 million illegal immigrants (http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/02/01/us-immigration-study-idUSTRE7107XV20110201) in the US out of a population of 312 million (http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html). If that number included all illegal immigrants, then they make up just over 3.5% of the population. In effect, you would lose 3.5% of the consumption in this country which may be made up for in the increased cumsumption of Americans returning to work to fill those jobs.

Also, one needs to take into account that the illegal immigration population is not uniform. In places like North Dakota, deporting the 6 illegal immigrants from Canada probably will not have much impact but in places like California, Arizona, Texas, etc. it would have a real impact on the economy. The state would save significant money in social programs that are per consumer. Questions would have to be answered such as keeping the education budget the same so CitizenPained can keep their job or keeping the cost per student the same and spendong that money somewhere else. At the same time, the cities/counties/state would lose revenue in taxes. A significant number of houses would become abandoned contributing to even lower prices.

[Der Trihs]

Also as you see in places like Georgia that are having a crackdown, you don't just lose the illegal immigrants. You lose the friends and family that leave with them, either to stay with them or out of fear of racial persecution.

[Budget Player Cadet]

@Saint Cad: Will they fill them for the same costs, though? I imagine they may get filled, but not at costs people will be able to stomach well.

[nachtmusick]

But how long do you think you could afford your daily bread if it cost 3, 4, maybe 5 times what it costs now? I know for a fact that my family would last maybe a week, then really end up struggling.

Prices would never climb by such astronomical amounts. Your family would have work available. Not great work, but work. The wage would reflect living wage in your neighborhood, not whatever the "living wage" was in the ghetto that your illegal counterpart fled from.

[Fear Itself]

But how long do you think you could afford your daily bread if it cost 3, 4, maybe 5 times what it costs now? There is no data that suggests that would happen. Labor is a small part of food costs.

[Saint Cad]

@Saint Cad: Will they fill them for the same costs, though? I imagine they may get filled, but not at costs people will be able to stomach well.

Of course not, wages will go up and part of that cost will be borne by the consumer but considering that labor costs are such a small cost of the final product, there would be a slight increase in prices if any at all.

I find it hard to believe that a benefit of illegal immigration is to keep the price of consumables down. You just ate a $15 meal at your favorite restaurant. How much more expensive would that meal have been if the dishwashers were paid minimum instead of illegal wages? What about the cost of biulding your house if electricians and not illegal immigrants ran the wiring? How much would that raise the final price?

[Lynn Bodoni]

Apparently, there's a great deal of unemployment among poor minority (not necessarily Hispanic) youth...and these kids want jobs. Most of them would be able to do things like bussing tables and washing dishes and, during summer or weekends, doing fieldwork. It was pretty common, in fact, for kids to take these sorts of jobs when my mother was a kid, she told me that she had to pick cotton during the summers when she was young.

I think that there IS a labor pool that's being underutilized.

I'll grant you, teenagers shouldn't be working in heavy construction or dangerous factory jobs, but there are also plenty of adults who are here legally who are unemployed, too.

[Crazyhorse]

This probably is not even in the realm of possibility for many who think that immigrants are hired just because they are willing to work for less, but it's also because they are frequently better and more skilled workers with better job-specific education for particular work. They are highly qualified to work in those jobs while there are very few qualified and educated Americans making themselves available for them.

There was a time an American could presume they were among the most educated, skilled, well-trained, and valuable employees in the world (incorrect then, but closer to the truth than it is today). That is not presumed anymore as the global community gets smaller and job specific training becomes more available to more people worldwide. We cut our vocational training programs while other countries have invested in theirs. We may not like to accept that an 'illegal' got the job because they are better at math and writing than our kids, have had more specific experience and job training than our kids, and on top of that, are willing to work much harder and for lower pay than our kids.

Recently some business leaders from foreign countries that the US would like to have investing in US jobs met with the State Department to discuss why it is undesirable for them to do so (http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2011/10/foreign-ceos-hard-to-find-skilled-us-workers/).

Many of the reasons foreign companies find American workers too expensive for what skills and education they bring to the jobs are among the same reasons US employers find immigrant labor more effective and profitable. This is the case even if they get paid the same as American labor.

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton listened throughout much of the hour-long session and pledged to provide the resources of her department to address their concerns.

She said the State Department was making progress on visa issues through increased access and hours, despite legislative limitations and potential budget cutbacks that could make the situation more difficult.

"We’re in a race; we want to increase access to this country, she said. We’re particularly interested in the business ramifications. So we very much welcome the jobs council emphasis on this."

Martin Daum, the head of Daimler Trucks North America, told the gathering that he felt he had better skilled workers at his plants in Mexico than in the United States, where some workers have to be taught proper math and writing skills.

He said that America produces highly educated professionals, but knowledge can be lacking when it comes to hiring for vocational jobs. According to Daum, the better skill sets of Mexican workers makes it easier to ramp up production at his company’s factories in Mexico than those in the United States.

"We have to bring in educators," he said.

Peter Solmssen of Siemens said his company was "bullish on America. We have 3,000 open jobs and we’re looking for people to come work for us."

But he added there were bumps in the road, "it’s a skills issue. We’re having to train them ourselves. "

Clinton’s strongest comments were about how vocational training programs have been cut in recent years and that the perceptions of blue-collar jobs in this country have to change.

"We need to pay more respect to those men and women who do this work," she said. "We’ve had, for a long time, a mixed message: Go to college, go to college, get a degree and make that kind of money," which has devalued blue collar job opportunities.

[magellan01]

There is no data that suggests that would happen. Labor is a small part of food costs.

Yes. It is estimated that for produce, like lettuce, labor accounts for only 10% of the final cost. So if a head of lettuce cost a dollar, and we decided we had to double the wages paid to pick the lettuce, a head a lettuce would then cost a whopping $1.10. Triple it and you're up to $1.20. Some foods, like nuts, have a labor cost of about 30%, but most produce is just 10%.

[Crazyhorse]

Yes. It is estimated that for produce, like lettuce, labor accounts for only 10% of the final cost. So if a head of lettuce cost a dollar, and we decided we had to double the wages paid to pick the lettuce, a head a lettuce would then cost a whopping $1.10. Triple it and you're up to $1.20.

I realize that I'm just a product of the American educational system so my maths aren't as good as some Mexican laborers, but isn't what you just said the same thing as saying "The cost of lettuce would go up by 20%"? That sounds serious - like the kind of thing that could have ramifications for the economy if it were magnified on a national scale and applied to all other crops like corn and wheat, etc.

But it's an irrelevant point anyway, since its not really the wages of immigrant labor that make them popular and necessary, as already noted. Its their willingness to work, their work ethic, their general education level and past experience. Top of the list - just their willingness to work. You can't fill several buses every morning in a US city with hard workers who are ready to get up at 4 AM and go work in the fields for a meager wage and also be reliable, consistent, hard workers. You could fill any number of hundreds, or thousands, of those buses up in Mexico every single day with people willing to risk their lives and leave their families just for such a golden opportunity.

As long as Americans are unwilling to do the work, someone will take the jobs and it isn't about salaries. If they tripled the wages there would still be unemployed 'consultants' and 'HR associates' sitting at home on the internet, milking their unemployment until they manage to find the next, perfect, sweet gig with good benefits. They all really can go out and meet the buses at 5 AM and go pick fruit, right now - they don't want to, and they wouldn't do it for triple the standard pay.

[Fear Itself]

They all really can go out and meet the buses at 5 AM and go pick fruit, right now - they don't want to, and they wouldn't do it for triple the standard pay.Just because not everybody would do that work, doesn't mean no one would do it.

[Crazyhorse]

Just because not everybody would do that work, doesn't mean no one would do it.

Certainly but those who would, apparently, aren't making themselves known to the hiring managers. Because the jobs are there and they go on every day. Triple the wages, and you might convince some to take a job they hate just for the money. Sometimes, when they really have to. Like all other employers they are hoping to find consistent, reliable and even enthusiastic people to work for them.

[Fear Itself]

Triple the wages, and you might convince some to take a job they hate just for the money.And the smiling brazeros do it because they love that kind of work? There is a wage below which even they won't work.

[Crazyhorse]

And the smiling brazeros do it because they love that kind of work? There is a wage below which even they won't work.

Yes, they love having work. Liking or not liking the work isn't really something considered by most workers in the world, and that gets right to the point.

But again it doesn't matter, quadruple the wages, 4 times minimum wage, and advertise the jobs with instructions to meet the buses at 4:30 AM. You will have fruit rotting in the fields across the country while people on unemployment complain that immigrants are taking away all the jobs.

[PhillyGuy]

There are 11 million illegal immigrants in this country, some of which are children. Therefore there are enough out-of-work Americans to take the jobs that are vacated.
Maybe, but not for the reason you are saying. Most of the vacated jobs would not need to be filled because, with 11 million less mouths to feed and bodies to cloth, you have a lot less demand for goods and services, and thus a lot less need for workers. A lot of low income US citizens would be laid off from places like supermarkets and dollar stores because the customers had gone back to Mexico and Guatemala and Ireland. (Just as middle class Americans who manage those stores, and drive trucks to service those stores, and manufacture food for those stores, would lose their jobs.)

I know it's not a job I could do, no matter what the pay was.
Me too.

Now, if I was hungry enough, I guess that would change. But so long as we are going to have any kind of safety net, I'm with you. I can't take the hot sun and am convinced of (and a little ashamed of) my inability to do it.

To some extent, crops would have to be picked by machine at higher cost. And, to a larger extent, we would just import more of our food.


Obviously there would be some savings because of fewer people incarceratedIt's not obvious to me. People who entered the US, or remain here, illegally, have an unusally low incareceration rate. (http://www.policefoundation.org/pdf/strikingabalance/Appendix%20D.pdf) They pay taxes but are less likely to receive services, whether it be social security disability benefits, or even stuff I do like going on a White House tour or borrowing library materials for the Kindle. So I'm going to say that loss of the part of their taxpaying that goes to support prisons, minus the cost of incarecerating a small number of them, may net out to an economic harm to citizens like myself.

[Fear Itself]

But again it doesn't matter, quadruple the wages, 4 times minimum wage, and advertise the jobs with instructions to meet the buses at 4:30 AM. You will have fruit rotting in the fields across the country while people on unemployment complain that immigrants are taking away all the jobs.That would be $30/hr. There wouldn't be enough buses to handle the turnout.

[Crazyhorse]

That would be $30/hr. There wouldn't be enough buses to handle the turnout.

You really think 11 million of them? Every day, ongoing? I would be very interested to see it happen but I doubt it. I think we'd see fields full of very happy immigrants and Americans still saying immigrants are stealing all the jobs, when we are really saying "Its worth it. I don't want to go out in the fields and pick fruit even for 50.00 an hour". Of course in the real world there is no reason they should offer 4 times the standard wages. Even minimum wage is a bounty worth risking life and limb for among millions of able and ready workers just lining up for the chance. It seems a little arrogant for an American who is unable to find any other work to demand four times the minimum wage before even considering work that isn't worth that much by any standard, not just immigrant standards.

Americans who are willing to work for the standard wage that those jobs offer, or skilled jobs that require education and experience, are under qualified and have higher expectations than their immigrant counterparts.

Businesses all over the world, our own government, and employers of immigrants, all say the same thing - they can't find enough Americans who are both qualified, and willing, to fill the jobs that they have available.

[PhillyGuy]

That would be $30/hr. There wouldn't be enough buses to handle the turnout.
Maybe yes, maybe no. But since nobody would offer the $30/hr, what's the point? In the OP scenario, we just expelled millions of people, most commonly to Mexico. The Mexicans would have little choice but to farm marginal land down there, for less money than they made here, so that the crops can be exported northwards. Crops rotting in the field? This would only happen if the mass expulsion of undocumented workers was instantaneous, instead of, as is actually happening, more gradual. Over a period of years, we would switch to a some combination of greater farm automation and increased food importation.

[boytyperanma]

Come on now this is America if one source of cheap exploitable labor goes away we'll find another, it's what we've always done.

Pass legislation to go back to prison labor on large scales, create some new draconian laws to force the less desirables into prison and with a few years we'll have a whole new crop of slave labor.

Increasing wages and costs are out of the question when we can maintain our lifestyles on the backs of others.

[Farmer Jane]

Every single undocumented immigrant I know works in blue-collar jobs, restaurant jobs, or cleaning. (I must say, it pays to have kiddos in the food industry. Free dishes. :D)

No one is in the fields, and as their children grow up in American schools and in the American standard of living, uh, they definitely aren't headed to pick tomatoes.

[Crazyhorse]

Every single undocumented immigrant I know works in blue-collar jobs, restaurant jobs, or cleaning. (I must say, it pays to have kiddos in the food industry. Free dishes. :D)

No one is in the fields, and as their children grow up in American schools and in the American standard of living, uh, they definitely aren't headed to pick tomatoes.

And those jobs even more so than farm jobs are available right now, at fair American wages, to the public at large. Nobody is stealing the job they are just doing the job. Farm workers, railroads, construction, food service - basically anywhere there is work going on, you will find immigrants delighted to have a chance to do it. And they will have a generally better looking resume for the work than a typical citizen who is in a position to be looking for that same work.

[Der Trihs]

Crops rotting in the field? This would only happen if the mass expulsion of undocumented workers was instantaneous, instead of, as is actually happening, more gradual. No it isn't; in places like Arizona you have thousands of workers leaving (http://news.yahoo.com/ala-loses-workers-immigration-law-takes-effect-222404123.html) both legal and illegal.


Intended to force illegal workers out of jobs, it is also driving away many construction workers, roofers and field hands in the country legally who do backbreaking jobs that Americans generally won't.

<snip>

"They just feel like there is a negative atmosphere for them here. They don't feel welcome. I don't begrudge them. I'd feel nervous, too," Pate said.

While it's not clear how many of an estimated 185,000 Hispanic people in the state have fled, one estimate figured as much one-fourth of the commercial building work force had left since the law was upheld last week, said Bill Caton, president of Associated General Contractors of Alabama.

<snip>

On Chandler Mountain in north Alabama, tomato farmer Lana Boatwright said only eight of the 48 Hispanic workers she needed for harvest showed up after the law took effect. Those who did were frightened.

"My husband and I take them to the grocery store at night and shop for them because they are afraid they will be arrested," she said.

Farmer Chad Smith said his family farm stands to lose up to $150,000 because there are not enough workers to pick tomatoes spoiling in the fields.

"We will be lucky to be in business next year," he said.The fact of the matter is no matter what people want to pretend, the illegal immigration issue is in reality primarily a race issue. In the OP's scenario you will see massive fear among Hispanics no matter how legal they are, and a great deal of harassment of racial minorities. Because that's the point.

It's not obvious to me. People who entered the US, or remain here, illegally, have an unusally low incareceration rate. (http://www.policefoundation.org/pdf/strikingabalance/Appendix%20D.pdf) They pay taxes but are less likely to receive services, whether it be social security disability benefits, or even stuff I do like going on a White House tour or borrowing library materials for the Kindle. So I'm going to say that loss of the part of their taxpaying that goes to support prisons, minus the cost of incarecerating a small number of them, may net out to an economic harm to citizens like myself.For example, as of 2005 they were paying 7 billion a year (http://www.nytimes.com/2005/04/05/business/05immigration.html?ei=5090&en=78c87ac4641dc383&ex=1270353600&partner=kmarx&pagewanted=all&position=) into Social Security.

[PhillyGuy]

And those jobs even more so than farm jobs are available right now, at fair American wages, to the public at large.
While I am definitely on the side of compassion for undocumented workers, the issue is a bit more complicated. Because undocumented workers are easily exploited, their presence can depress wages. This is the most plausible explanation for the big difference in janitor's wages between Los Angeles, where there are many workers here illegally, and New York City, where it it is quite hard to get such jobs without high-quality ID. From the New York Times, 2006: (http://www.nytimes.com/2006/06/19/business/19illegals.html?pagewanted=all)

In New York City, janitors cleaning commercial buildings make $19 an hour. Mike Fishman, president of the Service Employees International Union's local in New York, points out that the union never lost ground in the city, and it is still unusual to find illegal immigrants cleaning office buildings there.

In Southern California, by contrast, unions were decimated in the 1980's, and only started recovering in the late 1990's. According to Mike Garcia, president of the union's main local in the state, Southern California's unionized janitors earn between $8.50 and $11 an hour.

The answer is not mass expulsion, but amnesty combined with stronger employer sanctions to reduce hiring of exploitable workers.

Is this one of America's most urgent challenges? No. Draconian solutions would be worse than the problem.

[Bloodless Turnip]

I don't think the wages of illegal field workers is as low as many think. Nor are the wages of illegal construction workers.

[Eva Luna]

While I am definitely on the side of compassion for undocumented workers, the issue is a bit more complicated. Because undocumented workers are easily exploited, their presence can depress wages. This is the most plausible explanation for the big difference in janitor's wages between Los Angeles, where there are many workers here illegally, and New York City, where it it is quite hard to get such jobs without high-quality ID. From the New York Times, 2006: (http://www.nytimes.com/2006/06/19/business/19illegals.html?pagewanted=all)



The answer is not mass expulsion, but amnesty combined with stronger employer sanctions to reduce hiring of exploitable workers.

Is this one of America's most urgent challenges? No. Draconian solutions would be worse than the problem.

What leads you to believe this is an issue of the immigration status of the workforce rather than the relative strength of unions in the two places? There's certainly no shortage of immigrant workers with no legal status in NYC.

[Hyperelastic]

The US is a welfare state that "levels up" the standard of living of people to a certain level. Although illegal immigrants are not eligible for some kinds of public assistance, they still benefit from the progressive tax system that ensures the poor pay very little for public goods like roads, schools, prisons, healthcare in certain situations, etc. As a result there is some income level below which a person is a net cost to other workers whether he is here legally or not. An illegal immigrant above that level is a net benefit and one below it is not.

[Bridget Burke]

Apparently, there's a great deal of unemployment among poor minority (not necessarily Hispanic) youth...and these kids want jobs. Most of them would be able to do things like bussing tables and washing dishes and, during summer or weekends, doing fieldwork. It was pretty common, in fact, for kids to take these sorts of jobs when my mother was a kid, she told me that she had to pick cotton during the summers when she was young.

I think that there IS a labor pool that's being underutilized.

I'll grant you, teenagers shouldn't be working in heavy construction or dangerous factory jobs, but there are also plenty of adults who are here legally who are unemployed, too.

Well, since you obviously hang out with the underemployed youth--how many of them have actually applied for those jobs?

[aruvqan]

The main problem with US born workers [those whose parents, grandparents were the legal immigrants] is they are being educated and told by their parent/s grandparents that they are essentially too good for manual labor. Remember the whole "I came to the US and scrimped and saved so you could go to college and get an education so you wouldn't have to do a manual job like me ..." bullshit? Being informed that "get an education, get a high paying job" and the whole school/high school essentially forcing kids into the mold of "go to college, get an office job, get married, have kids" instead of having the ones with the upper end of mental capacity being channeled to college and those with lesser mental capacity being channeled into vocational education.

It is as if manual labor is dirty, not suitable for US born people ... for immigrants and illegal immigrants only.

[I got put to work in a manual labor job, as did my brother long before I ever went to college or ended up in office jobs. I personally see nothing wrong with reorganizing school to at about the age of 12/13 running all the kids through several batteries of tests to decide university track or vocational track.]

[Naxos]

on 10/15/11, all illegal aliens leave the U.S., either by choice or by force. Let's iclude those who are incarcerated. They are released and deported. This is neither pro- nor anti-immigration, take it as a given with no judgment attached.

So........what happens on 10/16/11?...

All mainstream conservative political entities shove their defining discrimination ideology up their a$$, because the unending sea of drones who have been blindly hating anyone with a dark skin under the affront of "illegal alien", are affected drastically by losing their jobs and having their living standard dive through the floor, at a rate 10x than it has been already in the past 30 years due to the prevalent conservative policies implemented in the US that consistently funnel the country's wealth to the richer 5% of the population.

[Chen019]

What will we gain, what will we lose?

1. The National Research Council (http://books.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=5779&page=334#p2000633a9960334001)looked at this in in 1996, and found that unskilled immigrants on average collect $126,000 net present value (2011 dollars) more in their lifetime than they pay in taxes.

2. You'll also avoid a lowering of human capital downstream by reducing the number of people requiring affirmative action. Educational stats here (http://www.frumforum.com/the-future-costs-of-todays-cheap-labor) and here (http://articles.cnn.com/2009-05-05/us/dropout.rate.study_1_dropouts-enrollment-graduations/2?_s=PM:US).

[Nava]

If you're extending the term "illegal aliens" to mean everyone who, due to expired visas or non-work ones, shouldn't be doing what they're doing where they're doing it, lots of students wouldn't show up for classes from kindergarten to doctorate programs.

Or people who are doing every step they have to do, but whose paperwork is late because it's in government limbo.

I once worked for three months under a valid visa and with a valid SSN, but with no valid SS card - that's how long it took for the government to decide I probably wasn't a terrorist. And this was simply getting a piece of paper without the "student" stamp on it, the backlog for visa renewals and green card reviews is horrific.

[Nava]

One of the consequences of the current crisis in Spain is that many immigrants have gone back home (c. 480.000 per a newspaper article I read yesterday - this is about 1% of our population): many of them intended to do it whenever they retired, so they're doing it earlier than expected but it was always in the plans. The consequences aren't clear yet and won't be for a while, but the majority of those who are kwnown to have left were "legal": they paid SS and income tax, which people working under the table don't (under the table economy is so common here that paper-less workers don't bother get fake papers, there are many Spaniards who choose to work under the table). We know how much their leaving means in terms of "less income to SS", but not how much it means of "less expenses for SS", less educational expenses... and we know that our economy is hiding under the table worse than in the "fat cow years".

I think if everybody who's illegally in the US left, it would mean some people who are there legally leaving too (children, spouses). What I can't estimate is how many would that be.

[Lynn Bodoni]

Well, since you obviously hang out with the underemployed youth--how many of them have actually applied for those jobs? Quite a lot of them. The kids mostly DO want a job. Some of them are entitled princes and princesses who just want a paycheck without working for it, but a lot of them do want to have a job, and make some money. Some of them even want to make money for the benefit of their families, not just to have some spending money for frivolous things.

A big problem is that criminal activity does pay off very well, in the short run. Of course, that's another issue that we need to address...

[Zeriel]

1. The National Research Council (http://books.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=5779&page=334#p2000633a9960334001)looked at this in in 1996, and found that unskilled immigrants on average collect $126,000 net present value (2011 dollars) more in their lifetime than they pay in taxes.

The magic question: How does that compare to similarly unskilled non-illegal workers?
The second magic question: What proportion of illegal immigrants are "unskilled"?

The magic observation: Descendants of immigrants pay for their parents and then some.

[MLS]

I'm a teacher, so...I'd lose my job.
Wait -- how did you get to be a teacher if you are not a legal resident? It's my impression that one would have to be able to show legal residency in order to get a job of that kind. Certainly my school board would not have hired anyone who did not have a legal right to be here.

[monstro]

I was listening to the radio on Saturday. A story about a tomato farmer in Alabama who had literally overnight lost most of his workforce because of new anti-illegal immigrant legislation.

He said he had seven Americans apply for positions. Only one showed up for work, and he only picked four bushels (or whatever the unit was) before quitting that very day.

Great goodness, I thought to myself.

But then the guy said something that made me raise an eyebrow. He said the Mexicans just know how to pick tomatoes better than anyone else. It's a cultural thing, he said. Not anyone can do it.

The interviewer asked if you could then view a good tomato picker as a skilled laborer, rather than unskilled.

The farmer didn't miss a beat. He said a good tomato picker is a highly skilled laborer. That by the time he got done training someone to pick tomatoes, the tomato season would be over and done with.

So tomato picking is a highly skilled job, according to a guy who would know. As with any highly-skilled position, you have to pay wages commiserate with the work. I do highly skilled work, so I get paid the salary of a professional. This is called fairness. We have not been doing this for a big sector of our economy (agricultural laborers), and yet we have grown accostomed to thinking that this is fair. That we are entitled to cheap tomatoes. That because picking them doesn't require a college degree, it means "unskilled" and thus "low wage" work. So we have been paying artificially depressed prices all this time. The farmers, consumers...all of us have been working the system for our benefit all this time. Since forever. Just because capitalism has always worked this way.

To me, it's not even a question about illegal and legal. It's about exploitation. I don't know if offering tomato pickers $40,000 a year plus benefits will make the whole illegal alien question go away, but I know one thing. I'm not going to whine about the high cost of groceries or my less-than-ideal salary any more. What's the point? The free market is an illusion. People aren't being paid what their labor is worth. They are being paid what other people think they deserve and they just go along with it because they have no choice. There is a big difference between these two things.

[Zeriel]

Wait -- how did you get to be a teacher if you are not a legal resident? It's my impression that one would have to be able to show legal residency in order to get a job of that kind. Certainly my school board would not have hired anyone who did not have a legal right to be here.

I think she's worried about getting fired due to all the children of illegal immigrants leaving with their parents, leaving fewer classrooms needing to be staffed.

[Chen019]

The magic question: How does that compare to similarly unskilled non-illegal workers?
The second magic question: What proportion of illegal immigrants are "unskilled"?

The magic observation: Descendants of immigrants pay for their parents and then some.

It depends on the educational profile of the immigrants if their descendants actually pay for their parents. For those who don't complete High School, the US born descendants do not make up for the costs created by their parents.

In terms of your second question:

Dr. Hanson stated that around 60 percent of illegal immigrants have less than a high school education and compete for low-skilled jobs with native workers. He observed that economic theory would predict downward wage pressure as the result of the increase in the supply of workers in the U.S. economy. He noted the disagreement among economists, however, as to whether the data allows such a conclusion, indicating that studies on wage trends in different local labor markets often find small effects, and studies that look at wages on a national basis find larger effects. He stated that the strongest adverse impacts would be felt by workers competing for jobs with immigrants directly, that is, by low-skilled native workers.

He did not address the effects of illegal immigration separately. Dr. Hanson‘s coauthored research suggested that a 10 percent immigrant-induced increase in the labor supply is associated with a 4 percent decrease in black wages, a 3.5 percent decrease in the black employment rate, and a 0.8 percent increase in the black incarceration rate.11 This correlation held true in both national and state-level data, according to Hanson...

Dr. Briggs emphasized that the distinguishing characteristic of the illegal immigrant population is that 81 percent of them are probably in the low-skill sector of the job market; about 57 percent of them are without a high school diploma, and 24 percent have only a high school diploma.
The Impact of Illegal Immigration on the Wages and Employment Opportunities of Black Workers
A Briefing Before The United States Commission on Civil Rights
Briefing Report
http://www.usccr.gov/pubs/IllegImmig_10-14-10_430pm.pdf

[Zeriel]

It depends on the educational profile of the immigrants if their descendants actually pay for their parents. For those who don't complete High School, the US born descendants do not make up for the costs created by their parents

Which is apparently a small proportion of immigrants, since the overall over/under shows a generally positive overall rate of return for immigrants+their descendants.

[Typo Negative]

What about lost revenues? We have heard about illegals working under the table and not paying taxes, but I wonder how many out there ARE paying taxes under phony social security numbers.

11 million consumers go bye-bye. Is the loss in sales enough to impact large business? (certainly some small mom-n-pop operations would fail) How much do we lose in sales tax, income tax, fuel tax, tobacco tax...

Remember, we are not just talking about Hispanics. Surely there are illegals walking among us who pass undetected for the most part and pulling down decent money. And some illegal Hispanics are making a good living. They buy cars, clothes, groceries, medical supplies, booze and cigarettes, they rent properties and I'm sure some have bought properties. How far up the food chain would these losses be felt?

[Der Trihs]

What about lost revenues? We have heard about illegals working under the table and not paying taxes, but I wonder how many out there ARE paying taxes under phony social security numbers. I linked to a 2005 story (http://www.nytimes.com/2005/04/05/business/05immigration.html?ei=5090&en=78c87ac4641dc383&ex=1270353600&partner=kmarx&pagewanted=all&position=) on that upthread.

As the debate over Social Security heats up, the estimated seven million or so illegal immigrant workers in the United States are now providing the system with a subsidy of as much as $7 billion a year.

While it has been evident for years that illegal immigrants pay a variety of taxes, the extent of their contributions to Social Security is striking: the money added up to about 10 percent of last year's surplus - the difference between what the system currently receives in payroll taxes and what it doles out in pension benefits. Moreover, the money paid by illegal workers and their employers is factored into all the Social Security Administration's projections.

[Chen019]

Which is apparently a small proportion of immigrants, since the overall over/under shows a generally positive overall rate of return for immigrants+their descendants.

But a high proportion of illegal aliens.

Dr. Hanson stated that around 60 percent of illegal immigrants have less than a high school education and compete for low-skilled jobs with native workers. He observed that economic theory would predict downward wage pressure as the result of the increase in the supply of workers in the U.S. economy. He noted the disagreement among economists, however, as to whether the data allows such a conclusion, indicating that studies on wage trends in different local labor markets often find small effects, and studies that look at wages on a national basis find larger effects. He stated that the strongest adverse impacts would be felt by workers competing for jobs with immigrants directly, that is, by low-skilled native workers.

He did not address the effects of illegal immigration separately. Dr. Hanson‘s coauthored research suggested that a 10 percent immigrant-induced increase in the labor supply is associated with a 4 percent decrease in black wages, a 3.5 percent decrease in the black employment rate, and a 0.8 percent increase in the black incarceration rate.11 This correlation held true in both national and state-level data, according to Hanson...

Dr. Briggs emphasized that the distinguishing characteristic of the illegal immigrant population is that 81 percent of them are probably in the low-skill sector of the job market; about 57 percent of them are without a high school diploma, and 24 percent have only a high school diploma.

The Impact of Illegal Immigration on the Wages and Employment Opportunities of Black Workers
A Briefing Before The United States Commission on Civil Rights
Briefing Report
http://www.usccr.gov/pubs/IllegImmig_10-14-10_430pm.pdf

[Chen019]

I linked to a 2005 story (http://www.nytimes.com/2005/04/05/business/05immigration.html?ei=5090&en=78c87ac4641dc383&ex=1270353600&partner=kmarx&pagewanted=all&position=) on that upthread.

Unfortunately, they take out far more in other expenses (http://www.numbersusa.com/content/learn/illegal-immigration/but-they-are-funding-social-security-system.html):

The illegal alien lobby frequently touts the statistic that illegal alien workers contribute $7 billion each year to Social Security. They fail to note that for every $1 illegal aliens contribute to Social Security, they withdraw $10 in other government benefits.

But it costs $14.2 billion each year to imprison illegal aliens (http://www.numbersusa.com/content/learn/state-policies/but-they-are-funding-social-security-system-part-ii.html) for other crimes they commit. It’s as if they are putting money into one of Uncle Sam’s pockets, while pilfering twice the amount from the other.

As discussed in Part I, the New York Times wrote in a 2005 article, “The estimated seven million or so illegal immigrant workers in the United States are now providing the system with a subsidy of as much as $7 billion a year.” When, in that same year, this writer met the majority leader of the Virginia Senate, Richard L. Saslaw, he immediately quoted that statistic when the subject of illegal immigration was raised.

But the incarceration of illegal aliens convicted of non-immigration crimes (criminal aliens) costs the federal prison system about $1.2 billion per year,1 and the state and local prison system more than $13 billion per year.2 That is a total of $14.2 billion dollars. Federal, state, or local, the money for the incarceration expense comes from the United States taxpayer, just like the money that funds social security.

[Der Trihs]

Ah, yes, of course brown people are all evil and the source of all the problems in the country. How could I ever have forgotten that. :rolleyes:

Do you really want to extend that little calculus of yours? Just how much have rich white guys cost the country recently? Far, far more than those terrible brown immigrants, I'm sure. Or is it that only the crimes of brown poor people should be counted against them?

[Zeriel]

But a high proportion of illegal aliens.

That sounds like a good chicken-and-egg problem right there.

Are illegal immigrant wages/contributions inherently depressed, or depressed because of the fact of their illegality plus job demand?

[Typo Negative]

Unfortunately, they take out far more in other expenses (http://www.numbersusa.com/content/learn/illegal-immigration/but-they-are-funding-social-security-system.html):We're not calling imprisonment a benefit are we?

[Fear Itself]

We're not calling imprisonment a benefit are we?Three hots and a cot, lots of people would kill for that.

[Der Trihs]

We're not calling imprisonment a benefit are we?I halfway expect for someone to start saying that illegal immigrants who get shot are "stealing our hard-earned lead".

[Typo Negative]

Three hots and a cot, lots of people would kill for that.

And the violence and sodomy at no extra charge!