Ludovic
05-20-2012, 06:04 AM
Linky (http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/05/19/naacp-backs-same-sex-marriage/?hpt=hp_t3). Will this have an effect on the upcoming US election? It could, if it can get some socially conservative black people to the polls who would have otherwise stayed home due to Obama's support for same sex marriage.
Of course this depends on a few factors like:
-- How heavily otherwise moderate black people listen to the NAACP
-- How many would-be Obama supporters would stay home just because of his stance on SSM, and
-- How this would shake out in actual election results, which would depend on swing states and/or the existence of marginal districts with lots of black people, the latter of which seems to be fairly rare due to the twin effects of the "concentration" strategy of gerrymandering and the demands for minority-safe districts under the Voting Rights Act.
I applaud the NAACP's stance on this. I just don't know how large its effect will be.
Of course this depends on a few factors like:
-- How heavily otherwise moderate black people listen to the NAACP
-- How many would-be Obama supporters would stay home just because of his stance on SSM, and
-- How this would shake out in actual election results, which would depend on swing states and/or the existence of marginal districts with lots of black people, the latter of which seems to be fairly rare due to the twin effects of the "concentration" strategy of gerrymandering and the demands for minority-safe districts under the Voting Rights Act.
I applaud the NAACP's stance on this. I just don't know how large its effect will be.