The Anthrax attacks: YOUR turn to play "Profiler"

[astorian]

Up front, I have NO expertise on Anthrax, no background in criminology, NO inside information about the person(s) sending out anthrax-infected letters... in short, my opinion means little here. But I'm going to offer it anyway. You are not only free, but ENCOURAGED to offer your own takes and theories.

Do I believe that Arabs or fundamentalist Moslems are behind the recent anthrax attacks? No, I don't. As horrible as it is that 3 people have died, and many more have been put through an ordeal, the fact remains, whoever HAS been behind these attacks is strictly a small-timer. He's a penny-ante crook, who's accomplishing little, but getting lots of publicity. To me, that means that the guilty party is a home-grown product... undoubtedly a white American.

My hunch is, the guy who's doing this is the same kind of jerk who writes computer viruses: namely, a highly intelligent guy with no people skills, who's ended up working at a job he thinks is beneath him.

The guys who write computer viruses are the super-nerds with Ph. D's in computer engineering, but who end up working in mailrooms because they can't hold "real" jobs in the real world.

In the anthrax case, my profile of the killer is this: A middle-aged white guy with an advanced degree in microbiology who's ended up working as a flunky or lab assistant in some pharmaceutical firm. He's convinced that he's the most brilliant scientist on earth, and that "office politics" are the only reason he isn't CEO.

I suspect the guy will be nailed soon, because he's SO freaking proud of himself right now that he can't possibly keep it to himself. He's obviously got a HUGE ego, which explains why he sent letters to so many big media outlets (when he's watching the TV in his mother's basement, he's probably jumping up and down on his bed, as Brokaw and Rather read the news). He'll feel an unyielding urge to tell people what a cool thing he's done.

I'm concinced that ,when he's revealed, we'll find a Ted Kaczynski-ish loser behind the whole affair- NOT Osama Bin Laden.

[Mangetout]

OK, the handwriting on the envelopes looks to me as if it has been copied as a picture, not writing (i.e. as if the Roman alphabet is something with which the sender is unfamiliar, either that or it has been copied with the envelope deliberately inverted in an attempt to disguise the handwriting) The characters had a peculiar flattish look to their tops.

The text of the letter to Tom Brokaw contained a the word 'Penicillin' spelt as 'Penacilin', which strikes me as more of a 'western internet community' kind of spelling mistake.

There's another spelling mistake on the envelope too; I think we would have to consider these deliberate if we are to entertain the 'educated disgruntled lab assistant' hypothesis.

Of course, I'm not any kind of expert on any of this, so the above should be taken with a modicum of NaCl.

[reprise]

According to the news reports I've been watching this morning (and if anyone can confirm or refute this please do, our 6am news isn't known for letting facts get in the way of a good headline), it's now being publicly acknowledged by both the CDC and the FBI that the anthrax hitting the US mail system is "weapons grade". That very strongly suggests that Biopreparat (http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/EID/vol5no4/davis.htm) is the original source.

I'm not convinced that bin Laden and al-Quaeda are behind the anthrax attacks (if only because there are "better" biochemical weapons to which they have access); my gut instinct is that this is the work of another terrorist network, rather than the demented action of an individual. (sorry, I'm currently studying criminology and my son is studying forensic science, so we have a tendency in our household at the moment to try to assess what's happening in the world right now according to our respective fields). I don't believe that if even the most tenuous link had been established between the anthrax attacks and ObL, it wouldn't have been all over CNN. The FBI has no reason whatsoever to keep any proven or suspected links quiet (quite the reverse, in fact).

I'd love to be proven wrong on this, but every instinct I have is screaming at me that another "enemy" is taking advantage of the fact that just about anything which goes wrong in the US right now is bound to be blamed on ObL.

[Phlosphr]

Well I think regarding the OP I would say that I do not in any way think this is a home grown criminal. There are many facets to my deduction. First of all the Al Quaeda and the Taliban, and other Terror Groups are not saying peep about this, this in itself I think should raise an eye brow or two. Second, The materials started out as non-weapons grade anthrax in Florida and once it moved to D.C. and NYC it got more and more lethal, aerosol-ish. Thirdly, the places across the world that it has shown up. Nairobi(sp?) Argentina, UK, a couple others slip my biological roladex.

Basically, I think that 'a' terror group is responsible for starting the spread of anthrax, a group who has much fundage and can buy small seemingly innocuous strains as well as lethal weaponized strains. Saving the small strains for organizations like the tabloids and others who have pissed them off in the past and the lethal strains for D.C. The only rationale for my deduction is what I have seen on the front lines and on different news stations. So I may be wrong, but I do not think a home grown American committed these acts. I think that any true red blooded American when they saw the trade centers going down and the pentagon hit, they felt the same as anyone else. Enraged.

[Larry Mudd]

My personal bet (voiced in a number of threads) is that the perp or perps are connected to Christian Identity (http://www.religioustolerance.org/cr_ident.htm) or a spin off group. Larry Wayne Harris (http://www3.cnn.com/US/9802/19/fbi.arrest.pm/) was connected with them. For those that are not familiar with him, he's the lovely guy that was arrested for:
Obtaining plague culture by fraud.
Bragging about having enough Anthrax to "wipe out a city."
Stockpiling Anthrax vaccine
Trying to purchase millions of dollars worth of microbiology lab equipment.
Plotting to unleash plague in New York and blame it on Iraq.


Here is a charming excerpt from a 1998 PBS Documentary (http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/plague/etc/script.html) about bioterrorism:LARRY WAYNE HARRIS: My view of the future is that we are facing now a biological apocalypse. It is coming. The Bible says that it is coming.

NARRATOR: Larry Wayne Harris, a member of the white supremacist group Aryan Nation, has been in constant trouble with the law for his attempts to obtain plague bacteria and anthrax through the mail. Harris has written a manual for do-it-yourself biological warfare, and he claims it is easy to acquire these deadly agents.
...
INTERVIEWER: Could you personally use biological organisms offensively, if you had to?

LARRY WAYNE HARRIS: Most definitely. I- I hope I never have- we never have to, but most definitely.

INTERVIEWER: Do you believe, looking into the future, that you may have to?

LARRY WAYNE HARRIS: I hope and pray that I never have to.

INTERVIEWER: That's not the question, Mr. Harris.

LARRY WAYNE HARRIS: Yes.
Christian Identity nutjobs consider Armageddon a good thing. They expect that there will be a final war between White Christians and dark Jews and Muslims, and that the world will end and the White Christians will go to paradise while everyone else goes to hell.

This anecdotal evidence, combined with the al Qaeda operation manual's references to pitifully crude "biological agents", (basically spoiled food,) and absence of any intelligence that suggest they have ever experimented with more sophisticated agents, leads me to believe that domestic terrorists, looking to exacerbate the already tense situation in order to further their own agenda, are the more likely culprits.
Phlosphr, I read your post on preview. Read this Christian Identity doctrine (http://www.kingidentity.com/doctrine.htm), and ask yourself if these people are "Red Blooded Americans" with values that even remotely resemble the rest of us.WE BELIEVE the White, Anglo-Saxon, Germanic and kindred people to be God's true, literal Children of Israel. Only this race fulfills every detail of Biblical Prophecy and World History concerning Israel and continues in these latter days to be heirs and possessors of the Covenants, Prophecies, Promises and Blessings YHVH God made to Israel. This chosen seedline making up the "Christian Nations" (Gen. 35:11; Isa. 62:2; Acts 11:26) of the earth stands far superior to all other peoples in their call as God's servant race (Isa. 41:8, 44:21; Luke 1:54). Only these descendants of the 12 tribes of Israel scattered abroad (James 1:1; Deut. 4:27; Jer. 31:10; John 11:52) have carried God's Word, the Bible, throughout the world (Gen. 28:14; Isa. 43:10-12, 59:21), have used His Laws in the establishment of their civil governments and are the "Christians" opposed by the Satanic Anti-Christ forces of this world who do not recognize the true and living God (John 5:23, 8:19, 16:2-3).

[Milossarian]

I have a theory that this is meant to tie up law enforcement, while whoever is behind it works at catching us unaware in some other, devastating way.

I base that on the messages with the notes. In addition to saying stuff like "9-11-01; Death to America; Death to Israel, Allah is great," the letters say (paraphrasing), "You've been infected with anthrax. Take penicillin."

Why would they tell them that, if their goal is to kill people?

And why anthrax? It doesn't transmit from one person to another, and it is combatted relatively simply if detected early enough (which they ensure by what they say in the letters).

I think the post office deaths were, to a certain extent, inadvertent.

Their higher goal, rather than killing the letter recipients, was making sure they knew how they were infected. And causing a major investigation.

Which I'm guessing is a diversion of some sort.

[Hamish]

I just assumed it was Iraq. Now I'm beginning to wonder about the possibilities of domestic terrorists.

Of course, the only problem with the possibility that it's Christian Identity is that it wouldn't make much sense to inform their victims of Anthrax infection if they're going for Armageddon.

[reprise]

Milo, my fear and and my belief is that you are correct - this is just a diversionary tactic to focus attention on anthrax while "someone" (and I don't presume to know precisely which someone) performs the kind of sleight of hand we usually associate with entertainment by David Copperfield.

Perhaps I'm being more than a little paranoid here (or perhaps I have a more devious mind than the terrorists), but if I was a terrorist who had access to RBC weapons, I'd only be using anthrax as "foreplay".

[GIGObuster]

Larry Mudd covered most of what I was thinking, I agree, but I do think that there is also another possibility: just like great minds think alike, terrorists and criminal minds do also. I remember this example:

About a year ago a police helicopter crashed around the San Francisco bay area, this meant that the police had no capability of pursuing suspects in the air in the locality for awhile. Then the news reported on the great number of police officers that were going to attend the funeral. Right there I thought some criminals could think that that was a good opportunity to act and evade the police, and indeed: about three or more bank robberies, unrelated to each other, occurred the day of the funeral. Unfortunately for the crooks the police had thought already of the possibility and had more cops on the street that usual. All suspects were caught.
IMO the domestic terrorists are involved, either alone or taking advantage of the original mail strikes. And not in support of the foreign terrorists, but to incite Americans into supporting more xenophobic behavior like theirs.

[Larry Mudd]

Hamish:
Of course, the only problem with the possibility that it's Christian Identity is that it wouldn't make much sense to inform their victims of Anthrax infection if they're going for Armageddon.I'm not sure that that follows. If their intention was to escalate a war, then the main point would be to create panic and place the blame on Arabs, which was the M.O. in the 1998 conspiracy.

[Sam Stone]

I would lay 100:1 odds that this is NOT a domestic terrorist.

I've been thinking about scenarios for this, and a number of them come to mind.

First, the most likely possibility is that this is another attack related to Bin Laden. People keep pointing out how 'amateurish' it is, but that's not necessarily the case. First, if they happened to have some anthrax, and couldn't devise a better delivery method, then they just used the best one they had. That's not amateurish, it opportunistic. Second, before we start talking about how ineffective this attack is we'd better stop and think about the possible motives behind it. Sure, if the intent was to kill thousands of people it was a failure (so far). However, what if the intent was a diversion? What if it was to lull us into a false sense of security so that we treat the NEXT round of anthrax attacks with less care, only to find out afterwards that that stuff is resistant to antibiotics and aerosols easily?

Then there is the possibility that it was done as a tactical strike against the U.S. Command and Control. So far, it seems to have completely bottled up mail communications into the federal government. Perhaps that is important to the next attack. Who knows? But when the U.S. sends a strike into a country and wipes out nothing but communication towers, are you likely to say that the attack was a failure because no soldiers are killed, or are you more likely to say that the U.S. wanted to destroy that particular communications link and did a great job of it? We shouldn't underestimate the enemy.

Then there is the P.R. hit - Perhaps they wanted to panic the government, and demoralize the people by having us see the Senate and Congress flee Washington. If so, then that goal was partially achieved when the house bugged out of town, and it was the reason why I was strongly opposed to them doing so. And notice now that mail workers are demoralized, because they were told to stay on the job while Congress ran? If you are Bin Laden, you've gotta score yourself some points for that.

A scarier scenario is that this attack was designed to be very visible and widespread so as to stretch the resources of the CDC so that they will be less able to respond to an attack of something really dangerous like Smallpox. How many CDC field agents are tied up right now?

So far, with about 10 bucks worth of stamps and a few ounces of anthrax powder the terrorists have completely freaked out the U.S. media, bottled up the major postal outlets into the nerve center of the U.S. government, killed a bunch of people, and have caused the CDC to stretch its resources thin. THIS is a failure? Seems pretty damned effective to me.

Then there are the disturbing reports of crop-dusters 'bombing' several locations with some sort of powder - It was reported today that a crop duster dropped a load of powder on a national guard location, and another crop-duster dusted a river boat towing a barge or something. Unless this is some kind of nut, this is really disturbing.

[musicguy]

Originally posted by Sam Stone

Then there are the disturbing reports of crop-dusters 'bombing' several locations with some sort of powder - It was reported today that a crop duster dropped a load of powder on a national guard location, and another crop-duster dusted a river boat towing a barge or something. Unless this is some kind of nut, this is really disturbing.

You know, before I left for work this morning I heard both of these incidents mentioned on the morning news. When I got to work, I searched CNN, Reuters,AP, ABC, etc., and I couldn't find any mention of these stories anywhere???? What the hell is up with that? Is it that something major is going on and there is an enforced "hush" so as not to panic everyone or was it somehow not considered newsworthy? That seems strange, if true, being that the media is jumping on one unsubstantiated story after another.

Sorry if this is a hijack

[musicguy]

By the way Sam, you make a hell of a lot of sense but I sure hope you are wrong.

[xanakis]

Larry Mudd,

the problem with your theory is that the anthrax letter sent from America to Kenya was mailed on 8th September, three days before the WTC attack.

This means that either the two events are connected or they aren't (which involves a BIG coincidence).

Phlosphr,

The materials started out as non-weapons grade anthrax in Florida and once it moved to D.C. and NYC it got more and more lethal, aerosol-ish.

The first guy who died, the one in Florida, died of inhaled anthrax.

the places across the world that it has shown up. Nairobi(sp?) Argentina, UK, a couple others slip my biological roladex.

There have been no anthrax cases in the UK. Only Kenya and Argentina, and both these letters were mailed from inside America.

Sam Stone:

I don't know whether to laugh or cry at your ludicrous view of the situation.

- Anthrax wouldn't work by cropdusting, in fact, anthrax is pretty ineffective as a weapon of mass destruction. The CDC will be fully focused on the danger of smallpox or any other potential disease.

Just because there is an ongoing anthrax alert doesn't mean the CDC are neglecting other areas of potential biological threat.

- "A tactical strike at US command and control centers"? Get real. Like they are going to knock out America's communications systems with a few poisoned letters in the same way that the US has knocked out some Afghan radars?

Please, get real.

- The PR success? So OBL gets a point or two. Who cares? The PR war is not of primary importance here, the real war is.

[elfkin477]

Originally posted by Sam Stone
I would lay 100:1 odds that this is NOT a domestic terrorist.

Well, if I had the money to gamble with, I'd take that bet. I think that this is a homegrown psycho, someone with too much access and too little respect for the lives of others.

The most recent reports (CNN or MSNBC, I forget which) I've heard on it said that they're almost ready to publicly confirm that all the samples they've collected from exposed persons are from the same batch. To me, that sounds like someone was working alone and cultivating it in private, though of course I don't have a real idea of how big a batch would be.

Why would terrorists who did something as big as the WTC and Pentagon attacks follow up with something so small as this? Terrorism is the sort of thing that's supposed to escalate until goals, as nebulous as they might be, are achieved, not get scaled down to an almost petty level. This is more the work of someone taking advantage of people's fears and takes the opportunity to get off on making people panic. (sort of like the copycat crimes after the Tylenol poisonings). If their goal is to inspire fear, then a small scale attack with something this odd is prefect for what they want-high fear to effort ratio.

My bet is within 2 months some US born sociopath that has more in common with McVee or the Unibomber than the Talabain is going to be caught red-handed.

[reprise]

I should, perhaps, explain that the TV version of profiling is about as real and relevent as "Quincy, ME" is to forensic science.

There's nothing metaphysical or magical about profiling. Some people are born with the ability to suspend their own thoughts and emotions and "get inside" (not really an accurate term, but it will do until a better one comes along) the minds of other people, just as some people are born with an intuitive grasp of mathematics, or art, or music.

It's not that a profiler can read minds - they can't. The ability they use is mostly empathic. They have a talent which allows them to momentarily suspend their own identity and walk in the shoes of another. This is not an unknown talent. Actors use the same talent all the time - they just use it differently.

Profiling, like many other talents, is very much a reflection of how you perceive the world. An artist can look at a block of marble and see a potential sculpture. All I see is a piece of rock. The visual world pretty much doesn't exist for me. Sounds, body movement, and the ways in which people use language, I NOTICE, and I notice them bigtime

[squeegee]

There seems to be no consensus that the anthrax is 'weapons grade'. The only person saying that lately is Tom Daschle in several widely reported comments today (http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nm/20011023/pl/attack_anthrax_bush_dc_4.html). Daschle (http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nm/20011017/ts/attack_anthrax_investigation_dc_1.html) and others (http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nyt/20011020/ts/2_new_anthrax_infections_found_previous_cases_share_same_strain_1.html) have also stated that this was not "weapons grade" material in earlier stories. There seems to be a bit of Keystone Cops revolving around these allegations.

There is also no substantiated indication that the anthrax spores being delivered are becoming more lethal. The CDC confirmed (http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nm/20011018/ts/attack_anthrax_match_dc_3.html) that the strains in New York and Florida were indistinguishable.

[squeegee]

Theory: It's a disgruntled postal worker.

Yes, it's cliche, but it fits some of the facts.

Most interesting fact: the Kenya sample (http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/ap/20011018/wl/anthrax_overseas_15.html) was mailed on September 8 to a doctor in Nairobi from a relative in Atlanta. That relative apparently did not contaminate the package -- this was done after the package was mailed.

So: some nutjob who could contaminate that package did so somewhere between Atlanta and Nairobi, sometime between Sept 8 and Oct. 9 when it was delivered.

Who could have done this? Someone who works for the post office.

Why did it take a month for an Express Mail package to arrive at it's destination? Because someone in the delivery chain, for reasons unknown, intercepted and tampered with that package at thier leisure. And then, who could have made sure that that package was correctly delivered with the original postmark? Someone who works for the post office.

(OK, sometimes it does indeed take an Express Mail package a month to arrive...)

Who could have easily contaminated the mail workers in the Brentwood facility in D.C.? Someone who works for the post office. No tainted mail required, just sprinkle some powder.

Just a wild theory. Obviously there are holes you could drive a mailtruck through, but the OP invited speculation. No offense intended to the poor members of the mailworker community who have been victimized by these horrible acts.

[squeegee]

Which isn't to say that the Anthrax scare is unrelated to 9/11. That person in the postal chain could either have connections to the terrorists, or could be using the 9/11 events as an opportunity for thier own ugly gratification by raising terror the stakes using the mail as a weapon.

[Larry Mudd]

xanakis:
the problem with your theory is that the anthrax letter sent from America to Kenya was mailed on 8th September, three days before the WTC attack.
Actually, xanakis, that letter was later found not to contain anthrax. It was a package of cloth samples that had become mildewy. See here. (http://www.accessatlanta.com/news/2001/10/kenya.html)The package from Atlanta that Kenya officials said last week contained anthrax, was instead tainted by a harmless fungus or mildew, the FBI said today.

Additional tests at the Kenya Medical Research Institute turned up negative results for anthrax, according to Dr. Kevin Decock of the Centers for Disease Control in Nairobi.

[squeegee]

Actually, xanakis, that letter [mailed to Kenya] was later found not to contain anthrax. Well, damn. That pretty much blows my theory. <insert sound of bubble popping>

[squeegee]

(So sometimes it does indeed take an Express Mail package a month to arrive...)

[BobT]

If you're trying to divert law enforcement through this anthrax by mail plan, you're not necessarily diverting the FBI or the Army. It's the Postal Inspectors who are doing most of the legwork on this matter.

[reprise]

I don't know which news anyone else is watching, but since 5am this morning our media has been reporting the anthrax as confirmed "weapons grade". When I want to confirm information which is all over cnn, I usually trust theBBC (http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/in_depth/world/2001/war_on_terror/) to give me a fairly accurate and non-hysterical summary of what is known and verified by our governments and approved for public distribution.

News reports in our media this morning said that the DefSec was having a hernia over people leaking information to the media and thus compromising national security.

I wouldn't want to be a profiler for quids in this aprticular campaign unless I was damn sure I was outside of the range of the tabloid media.

[reprise]

preview is my friend...really

[Sam Stone]

[b]Xanakis:[/i] You should go back and read what I said. At no point did I suggest that Anthrax was being dropped by cropdusters. I'm quite familiar with the difficulty in setting up the spray bars on a crop duster to handle something other than what it was particularly designed for.

I simply said that it makes me nervous. It's STRANGE. Dusting some boat on a river could possibly be the work of some cropdusting joker, but a National Guard Base? Where you could actually get shot at? That takes it beyond practical joke. It could be a random nutcase, sure. But it could be something else. Just what, I won't speculate. But there are plenty of other biological, radiological, and chemical toxins out there.

As for the attack on C&C - I think you missed what I'm talking about. I'm not suggesting that the government can't communicate or something, but that it DID cause disruption. If you've got the weapon, and it will have any effect at all, don't you use it? Is it amateurish? Or is it more 'professional' to not use a weapon at your disposal just because it won't produce an impressive body count? If they had the Anthrax and no way to deliver it as a WMD, then this seems to me to be a reasonably effective use. Don't you? As opposed to not using it at all?

I think it's strange that people are saying that the fact they didn't kill as many people with this attack means that they don't have any more large attacks in their inventory. That's like Bin Laden watching a U.S. sniper kill a Taliban leader and saying that it's good news, because it means the U.S. is almost out of bullets.

[Lemur866]

I think the anthrax attacks have been very successful. Obviously they haven't killed many people, but they were never supposed to kill many people. The goal is obviously fear, panic, neuroses, paralysis, and sowing distrust of the authorities.

And the anthrax attacks have accomplished that splendidly. I can't think of a better way to use a limited supply of anthrax spores than mailing them to government and media figures. Government figures to make sure they are scared, and media figures to make sure that the media takes the story seriously. The goal is to turn CNN into ANN--the Anthrax News Network, all Anthrax, all the time. People are panicking, stockpiling Cipro, worrying about every package and every sniffle.

As a weapon, Anthrax is pretty puny. You could do better with a simple rifle on top of a water tower if all you want is a body count. But as a propaganda tool, Anthrax is very effective.

Of course, this says nothing about whether the anthrax attacks came from Al Qaida or from some homegrown organization. Right now I'm still leaning slightly towards homegrown, if only because the attacker(s) seemed to follow all the right steps for maximum media coverage for the smallest amount of material.

Really, Anthrax is not very useful as a weapon of mass destruction. It is a weapon of assasination and terror.

[GIGObuster]

Originally posted by BobT
If you're trying to divert law enforcement through this anthrax by mail plan, you're not necessarily diverting the FBI or the Army. It's the Postal Inspectors who are doing most of the legwork on this matter.

I'm afraid that is not right:

http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1101011029-180476,00.html
The FBI admitted that with only 11,143 agents, the hunt for the anthrax perpetrators meant the bureau had to reduce its effort to track the Sept. 11 clues--and, in the process, perhaps reducing its chances of uncovering and preventing the next attack. "Every day is Groundhog Day," sighed an overtaxed investigator whose morning begins before dawn. "By 9 a.m. I'm brain dead and we're just starting."

[Larry Mudd]

squeegee:
Well, damn. That pretty much blows my theory. <insert sound of bubble popping>
Sorry, squeej. ;) It's too bad, I liked the disgruntled postie angle.

[reprise]

Originally posted by Larry Mudd
Sorry, squeej. ;) It's too bad, I liked the disgruntled postie angle.

You should try the disgruntled profiler angle. If profilers don't start getting some serious sleep very soon we're going to start saying stuff like "Luke, I'm your father".

[Larry Mudd]

Luke, I am...

Oh. G'night folks.

[Vinnie Virginslayer]

Looking at photos of the letters:

http://www.fbi.gov/pressrel/pressrel01/102301.htm

My impression is that it's NOT the work of a foreign terror netweok. No serious Muslim terrorist would write "Allah is great". Sounds like something some teenager would write.

As for the penecillin misspelling, which I have heard as evidence it's a foreigner, how many Americans REALLY know how to spell that word? I'm not even sure I spelt it right.

I also do think the militia theory is a valid one worth exploring. Larry Wayne Harris made it clear that he would use biological weapons, and that his movement would consider using them, then blaming their use on Iraq. If America attacks Iraq, Russia could switch sides, and PRESTO- WW3, and hopefully for these kooks, Armageddon.

Investigators should seriously look at someone in the postal service being involved. It seems like only someone familiar with the handling and distribution techniques and observing the mail sorting mechanisms day after day would dream up such a clever way to distribute anthrax and scare the American public. A disgruntled mail worker seeking revenge, perhaps with connections to a right wing Christian identity movement is another hypothesis I have.

[Vinnie Virginslayer]

I also forgot to point out that mailing these letters to high profile politicans and media members, seen in TV every day, to me smells of something someone living in American would do. Why would terrorists from another country wish to alienate the one organization that can get their message to the most people- the media?

[squeegee]

quoth reprise:
I don't know which news anyone else is watching, but since 5am this morning our media has been reporting the anthrax as confirmed "weapons grade".Is this new information, or is the media just quoting Daschle's wild speculation (http://www.cnn.com/2001/HEALTH/conditions/10/23/anthrax.gephardt/)?

[Bosda Di'Chi of Tricor]

Originally posted by Vinnie Virginslayer
I also forgot to point out that mailing these letters to high profile politicans and media members, seen in TV every day, to me smells of something someone living in American would do. Why would terrorists from another country wish to alienate the one organization that can get their message to the most people- the media?

An important point, Vinnie.

Most of the larger Middle Eastern or Irish terror groups maintain pretty damn sophisticated relationships with the media. These groups have a leadership that is very savvy. Attacking the media is totally out of character for these folks.

But some white supremisist (sp?) rube from Kansas---now he might think that that was a swell move. Isn't the idea that the "media is controlled by Jewish conspiracies" a widely held belief among these yokels?

These attacks are the acts of evil men--but small men. No scope or scale in their resources, thoughts, or deeds. And less dangerous than the typical letter bomb. As I have posted elsewhere, I have met badasses that could do better with a .22 derringer than these palookas have done with their anthrax.

Catch 'em & hang 'em. :p

[Shirley Ujest]

Back to the OP:

I think it is foriegn terrorists living in this country operating as a seperate cell.

I beleive that there are many cells living in this country waiting patiently for either their orders to come through to start their campaign of terror or already have a start date planned.

The detail and planning that went into the WTC/Pentagon attacks was extensive. It was not hastily done. I do not for one minute think that that was the only attack on our soil. Another attack will come, has come, and will continue to come.

If everyone thinks that the only "war" on our home soil that we will witness is via CNN, et all, and if they think that this will be "over" by Christmas, they are living in a fantasy world. Life as we knew it is officially over.


Right now, our countries attention is really on two fronts: Afghan and the anthrax situation. (Has regular crime taken a holiday in the US or what?) I think in the next few weeks another scare of some sort ( car bombs? Human-kamikaze bombs?) will start. So that our minds, now split into two parts, will be divided into another faction of worry and concern and constant barragement from the media.


These terrorists are very intelligent: mailing letters to key figures in government and media, bringing fast global attention on a near instantaneous level. The damage done is mostly on the phsycological level and has scored a direct hit. That might be the only attack from "them" on this level, but what an effective job.

However, I do not beleive that there are an unlimited amount of terrorists living here (or elsewhere). Maybe a couple hundred to (perhaps) a thousand living here ( which really isn't that much when you think of all the people in this country who are now no longer walking around blithely since Sept 11.) living in isolated cells. None of the cells know of each other and the goings on because if one is caught, he can really only narc on his own group and no one else.

[pennylane]

Upon seeing the photograph of the anthrax-tainted letter, I have begun to question the identity of the group behind this attack. Three things struck me as peculiar in the letter.

Firstly, the date is written "09-11-01". Is this a reference to September 11th, or November 9th? Because as far as I know, only Americans put the month before the day when writing dates. A lot of people in other countries are not even aware of this format.

Secondly, the misspelling of penicillin seems odd to me. I would have expected a non-native-English-speaker to look the word up.

Thirdly, the last sentence is "Allah is Great". In my experience, Arabs almost always use the word "God" when speaking English. The word "Allah", in Arabic, refers not only to the Muslim God but to any God. The plural form is even used in reference to polytheistic religions. So most Arabs and Muslims will translate this word to "God" when speaking English. (This is based on my knowledge of Arabic after two years of studying the language at university. If anyone here speaks Arabic natively, feel free to confirm or correct this.)

Of course, none of these points are conclusive evidence that the perpetrator is not Arab or not Muslim. But I am now of the opinion that this is the work of a person or people living in America, whatever their political or religious inclinations.

[lucwarm]

First, on the question of "amateurish and sloppy" v. "slick and professional":

It seems to me that OBL's group takes pride in very careful planning and preparation for its activities.

This anthrax attack doesn't seem like it was very well planned or thought out. You can't tell me that the perp was targeting postal workers. More likely, the perp didn't really care who was hurt - he just wanted to cause terror.

If this had been OBL's group, IMHO, they would have carefully packaged the anthrax, done "dry-runs," observed the operations of mailrooms around the country, etc. This sort of preparation seems almost like a point of pride with them.

Further, if this had been OBL's group, I do not believe that the letters would have denounced Israel, or said "take pennicilin," etc. On the contrary, he would have not included any warnings or political statements, and would have sent the anthrax powder as innocuously as possible.

This leaves two other possibilities: First, OBL sympathizers; Second, someone homegrown.

I agree with pennylane that it is weird that the letters say "Allah is Great." I think it more likely that an English-speaking Muslim would say "God is Great." I have heard the phrase "Allah Akbar" translated a few times, and I have always heard it translated as "God is Great."

The handwriting does seem somewhat foreign, and I'm not sure what to make of the misspelling. But my instinct is that whoever wrote those words is a troll of sorts - someone who is mainly trying to evoke a reaction, and who doesn't necessarily believe what he is writing.

It's not an easy call, but my guess is: frustrated white guy.

P.S. There is an open question as to just how potent the anthrax at issue was. If it truly turns out to be "weapons grade" (whatever that means), I may change my mind. But my instinct is that whoever called it "weapons grade" was a politician who was exaggerating a bit, possibly because he felt a little embarrassed about all the precautionary measures taken by American legislators.

[Milossarian]

Vinnie:
Why would terrorists from another country wish to alienate the one organization that can get their message to the most people- the media?
I think you sort of answer your own question. Visibility. They get more bang for their buck by using their limited ability to attack with anthrax on highly visible people.

And it's not like the media is going to go away, or like they're going to say, "No. We won't report on what you say or do, because you were mean to us."

I think the wording of the letters and the way they are written is intended to confuse. If you're sophisticated enough to get your hands on this type of anthrax, chances are you don't write like a fourth-grader. Or, if you do, then there's someone further up the chain of complicity who is far superior in intellect to you, and you're just more or less a drone.

Another tiny thing: Does anyone know how the date is typically written in the Middle East? My friends in and from South America always write it day-month-year, and its one of the things they have the most trouble with "slipping on," even as they write in otherwise really good English.

If it's the same in the Middle East, the "9-11-01" may show a certain level of familiarity with the USA beyond somebody who's only been here temporarily.

[Phlosphr]

Lucwarm
The handwriting does seem somewhat foreign

Just out of curiosity do you know what a terrorist's handwritng looks like? Does the handwriting from a arab born terrorist schooled at Oxford differ from a white aryan's handwriting schooled at whitetrash high? Sorry for the bluntness. But A)...sources say the anthrax that recently killed 2 D.C. postal workers was weaponized and B) This is quite obviously someone or someones who want to cause terror, lets just hope its not a diversionary ploy, or a learning experience....

[kingpengvin]

My guess is it is a small (2 or 20 people tops) American group looking to take advantage of the situation.
I believe them to be middle aged White male possibly from the East coast.
More likely a hold over from the militia anti government types like McViegh. Or even White supremacist looking to heat up anti Muslim resentment.

Why do I think this?

1) This is not the style of Bin Laden or his gang. Every action they have taken in the last decade has dealt with showy explosions on identifiable targets (Embassies, Ships etc) Sending a few letters in the mail lacks the punch in the face style of blowing up a building.

2) The targets so far have been press and Government offices. What better way to undermine democracy at this time than to make them look frightened or disrupt them from doing their jobs.

3) Nothing has happened in the West (that I know of), Just the East coast. I think they are operating outside the immediate area and not "pissing on their own lawn"

4) I believe it was home-grown by the fact that these people did exactly what the Press was worrying about. Note that CNN and other news groups worked up a furore over the possibility of use of Anthrax. Suddenly Anthrax is used despite the fact it is not good for physically affecting large groups and is iffy on the means of spreading it (spraying large areas) To me it was as if these people were waiting for a good idea and picked it up from the press.

Of course with little to really go on I'm just profiling based on my own world view and could be completely wrong but hey I'm not paid to do this.

[pennylane]

Originally posted by Milossarian
Another tiny thing: Does anyone know how the date is typically written in the Middle East?

If it's the same in the Middle East, the "9-11-01" may show a certain level of familiarity with the USA beyond somebody who's only been here temporarily.
I lived in several Middle Eastern countries as a child, and dates were always written day-month-year. This is one of my reasons for thinking, like you, that even if the writer is Arab or Muslim, he may be a long-term resident of the United States.

Another point which I forgot to mention: one of the envelopes was addressed from a school in New Jersey. The practice of schoolchildren writing to senators and other government representatives, while not restricted to the U.S., is very uncommon outside of North America and Europe. Of course, any terrorist who has spent time in the U.S. or taken the trouble to educate himself about American society could be familiar with this practice, but it is a concept which is quite alien to many foreigners.

[lucwarm]

Originally posted by Phlosphr


Just out of curiosity do you know what a terrorist's handwritng looks like? Does the handwriting from a arab born terrorist schooled at Oxford differ from a white aryan's handwriting schooled at whitetrash high? Sorry for the bluntness. But A)...sources say the anthrax that recently killed 2 D.C. postal workers was weaponized and B) This is quite obviously someone or someones who want to cause terror, lets just hope its not a diversionary ploy, or a learning experience....

Well, by definition I know what a terrorist's handwriting looks like. i.e. whoever sent the anthrax letters is a terrorist.

The point of this thread is to "profile" the author of the anthrax letters - to make guesses about his background and motivations.

I find it an interesting exercise, but if you feel there's something wrong with it, I'm not gonna debate you.

I'm not sure what your point is about the handwriting, but to me, the handwriting looks like that of someone who did not grow up writing English. In spite of this, my guess is that the author is American-born and unaffiliated with extremist Muslim causes.

By the way, if you could (1) define "weapons grade" anthrax; and (2) identify your "source[]," I'd appreciate it.

[even sven]

The handwriting is irrellevent. Whoever did this would certainly make some attempt to disguise their handwriting. My guess is that they copyed the letters upside down or some other technique to remove identifying characterists from the writing.

[Larry Mudd]

Certainly, it would be silly to try to determine the ethnicity or nationality of the offender by examining the printing, but there's plenty of other info for forensics. There's an article (http://www.usatoday.com/life/2001-10-22-penmanship.htm) at USA Today that focuses on the handwriting, but it is typical USA Today quality stuff. 'Handwriting experts' have determined that all three letters were written by the same person. (That's why they get the big bucks, I guess.) I can't believe they cite a corporate graphologist (who uses a system about as scientific as astrology to advise companies on the best hire,) as an 'expert.'"Disguised handwriting and sloping baselines are all indicative of a suicidal personality or very depressive person. The writing is completely free of emotion. All that is present is pure depression. Sociopaths have no conscience. They are without feeling. They will destroy others and themselves," Hopper says.So, disguising your handwriting in the comission of a capital crime indicates a suicidal personality? And the sloping baselines in a document that is covered in deadly anthrax tell us the writer has a disregard for other people's lives? This guy deserves a raise, he's good. :rolleyes:

[Spoonbender]

The letters seem to me more like someone trying to sound like an Islamic terrorist rather than someone who is an Islamic terrorist. The statements are too simplistic. "Death to America," "Death to Israel," "Allah is Great." It's like the person read Islamic Extremism for Dummies.

If it were Al Qaeda, I'd expect the letters to be completely innocuous in content. They would write perfectly normal-sounding letters, then sit back and let people die.

[audient]

the boston globe ran a story (can't find the link) suggesting that it's a homegrown right-wing group. mainly because they attack Democrats & the "liberal media".

Me, I'm struck with a philosophical similarity between the 9/11 attack & the anthrax attacks. Both use the openness of american society & turn its infrastructure against itself.

wtc terrorist: gosh, those americans can lob missiles at us at will. I wish we could do that... Wait a minute - there are 4,000 missiles flying over USA at any given time. we just need to commandeer some. we can even get the americans to train us how to guide them!

anthrax terrorist: if I only had a courier to distribute this poison, who could sneak into the seat of american power, not even knowing what he's carrying, without ever meeting me. And also it'd be nice if he'd do it for just 34 cents...

[Larry Mudd]

Here's the Boston Globe (http://boston.com/dailyglobe2/294/nation/In_anthrax_puzzle_some_see_evidence_pointing_within_US%2b.shtml) story.Edith Flynn, a longtime researcher and specialist on terrorism at Northeastern University, said she was reluctant to rule out Iraq but ''nearly all of the evidence that we have now points to this being a case of domestic terrorism.'
'There is a prior history in which right-wing crazies and neo-Nazis have dabbled in biological'' weapons, said Flynn, who has written extensively on terrorism. ''My thesis is that 80 to 90 percent of the anthrax stuff we've seen is homegrown because these extremist groups are using the cover of a national calamity to advance their own agendas.'

[SterlingNorth]

I'm going to admit straight up that I've have not been paying attention to the Anthrax attacks. I've been purposely trying to ignore them for a while. With that said, I haven't read more than a few posts in this thread (though from a quick scan I see that the consensus is developing that this may be a homegrown incident). Here is some fuel for the fire, so to speak.

Bibliography:

Talking Points Memo-- Oct. 24 (http://j-marshall.com/talk/oct0104.html#102401222am)
by Joshua Micah Marshall
http://j-marshall.com/talk/oct0104.html#102401222am

No Consensus on Who Wrote Anthrax Letters (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A47885-2001Oct24.html)
by Peter Slevin for the Washington Post
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A47885-2001Oct24.html

Don't blame Saddam for this one (http://www.guardian.co.uk/comment/story/0,3604,576755,00.html)
by Scott Ritter for the Guardian (UK)
http://www.guardian.co.uk/comment/story/0,3604,576755,00.html

Josh Marshall brings up an very interesting point about how this all started. Some guy at an National Enquirer office in some podunk town in Florida dies. That gets mentioned after the entertainment minute of the local news. Then we find Tom Brokaw recieving a letter. It gains a little bit of media attention but nobody seems to link them up together or even seem to acknowledge the events.

Tom Daschle doesn't recieve a letter for several weeks -- as the story seems to be dying down. I quote from Marshall...
The letters to the New York Post and NBC News were sent on September 18th from Trenton, New Jersey. To the best of my knowledge, the letters responsible for the CBS, ABC and AMI contaminations have yet to be found. But it seems reasonable to assume, from all we know now, that those letters were also sent out of Trenton on the same day.

Two weeks later almost nothing had happened. Bob Stevens had been hospitalized on the 2nd of October, had his diagnosis confirmed on the 4th, and died on the 5th. But at that time federal authorities were still sticking with some improbable natural explanation for Stevens sickness.

So after two weeks the terrorist's work had gone entirely ignored and after two and a half weeks authorities were not even conceding that there had been a terrorist attack. None of the letters to the legit media had even been publicly discovered or acknowledged. This isn't meant to sound flippant but you get the sense there was a bit of frustration.
Joshua Micah Marshall

This could mean that the original plan of attack--scare the reporters-- wasn't working, (note: Why the National Enquirer?) so they started going after whom else would make news--the politicians, and to make sure to link it to previous letters to fan the flames. For that bit of evidence, I'll quote from the Wash Post article...

[Retired Air Force anti-terrorism expert Gerald] Brown believes the letter to Daschle is distinctive in intriguing ways, and may have been written by a different person than the earlier two. . . . It specifically mentions anthrax, which the media letters did not, suggesting that the author wanted to attract more attention. Unlike the earlier letters to Brokaw and the New York Post, which had no return addresses, the Daschle letter carried a fictitious one.

"Now they're saying, 'How can we get this through the system? Well, a letter to a senator from grade school kids might get it through. And if we mention that this is anthrax, this might get their attention,' " Brown said.

Brown also theorized that the anthrax operation seems more likely a case of domestic terrorism, not least because a letter packed with anthrax spores went to Daschle, "who's on the left. If it's a home-grown militia effort, Daschle's a likely target."
Washington Post
And to note the last line, I'm not completely sure that Daschle's politics is the issue -- especially if the White House anthrax story is true. But it is interesting to note because it shows an awareness of the American political climate. Daschle didn't become terribly important until Jim Jeffords made it known that he was leaving the Republican Party. Events like that in the Senate wouldn't seem to be important to foreign terrorists like that.

Anyway, this looks doesn't look like the MO of Osama or the Al Qaeda network. They seem to work on the idea of killing as many people as possible in big showy ways. This anthrax thing is too shrouded in mystery and such as to the perps. It looks more like a con than anything else. Like spoonbender said, it looks kinda like a caricature or burlesque of a fundamentalist Islamic terrorist. Remember that the suicide hijackers were pretty educated and living in America for some time. I'd expect the letters to be less kindergardenized than "You die now". Anyway,I'm not sure Israel plays as big a role in Al Qaeda's rage against us than is generally believed.

There also recent reports that this anthrax was treated with something that is only available in the US, Russia, and Iraq. Iraq could be very well behind this, but they've been trying their damnedest to get the UN to lift the sanctions, and they're too close now to gamble that on some pennyante stunt like this. And that other signatures on the microbes seem to point away from the Iraqis (http://www.guardian.co.uk/comment/story/0,3604,576755,00.html).

But this is all speculative and I'm really bad at this detective stuff (especially under an all night crash course in the anthrax story), so I don't know. And I should be going to bed.

[audient]

thanks for finding the article, LM.

vB is doing wierd things to that url - adding spaces where there aren't any, rendering it bogus. here's the raw address. paste it into your browser, but delete the space in "shtml"

http://boston.com/dailyglobe2/294/nation/In_anthrax_puzzle_some_see_evidence_pointing_within_US+.shtml

i didn't put that space there. i don't know why vB is insisting on inserting it

[Fretful Porpentine]

Sure, I'll play.

My guess is that this person is both a homegrown American and nominally Muslim -- a follower of Louis Farrakhan or someone similar. This individual is probably not directly connected with the WTC and Pentagon attacks, but does view them as a good thing.

First of all, I agree with pennylane's analysis of the way the date is written; I'd add that the 1's are written without strong upstrokes, and that handwriting analysts seem to have concluded that the writer is accustomed to writing left to write. All of this suggests that the writer is certainly not Middle Eastern, was probably educated in North America, and therefore has nothing to do with the earlier terrorist attacks.

However, I don't think that the references to Allah and 9/11 are entirely a blind. It seems to me that there are two reasons to commit a terrorist act of this sort -- to kill people, and to make a statement. If the writer simply wanted certain individuals dead, he (or she) would have chosen a more efficient way of spreading anthrax, one that doesn't involve warnings or statements of any sort. Therefore, this person probably wants to call attention to a particular cause, and you can't do that by pretending to represent a different cause. On the other hand, the messages make perfect sense if this person really DOES hate America and Israel, and DOES perceive the WTC attack as the will of Allah (and it seems likely that an American Black Muslim would make a distinction between "Allah" and "God" in English, while somebody from a predominantly Muslim culture would not).

It's also a bit suggestive that the writer can't spell "penicillin" but can spell "Israel" -- most people who are poor spellers and accustomed to the standard American pronunciation would write "Isreal." It looks like this person may actually be interested in Israel, at least enough to make sure he's spelled it correctly.

Finally, I seem to remember from Farrakhan's speech at the Million Man March that he sees some sort of cosmic significance in the numbers 9 and 1 -- the sort of thing that may cause one of his followers to take an interest in the date 09-11-01, and perhaps to see the attacks as the first step in some grand divine plan.

I've probably got it all wrong, but this is fun!

[pennylane]

Originally posted by Fretful Porpentine
Therefore, this person probably wants to call attention to a particular cause, and you can't do that by pretending to represent a different cause.
Good point, Fretful. American Muslims often do distinguish between "God" and "Allah" when speaking English. There are two other possibilities - that the person responsible is attacking specific people or organisations (this being his cause) or that he is simply a madman or prankster (and has no cause). In either of these cases, he could attempt to blame the attack on Muslims/Arabs without obscuring or hampering his intent.

[lucwarm]

Originally posted by audient
the boston globe ran a story (can't find the link) suggesting that it's a homegrown right-wing group. mainly because they attack Democrats & the "liberal media".



For what it's worth, the New York Post is traditionally a conservative paper.

[MEBuckner]

I was really inclined towards the "home-grown white supremacist loony trying to start a race war by mentioning 'Allah' and casting blame on the A-Rabs" theory myself. Now, I'm not so sure. An article (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A47864-2001Oct24.html) in the Washington Post (http://www.washingtonpost.com) seems to be talking much more convincingly about the "weaponization" of this stuff than some off-the-cuff remark by a politician as reported by the TV news. Reportedly, this stuff has weaponized--aerosolized--in a way that only the U.S., the former Soviet Union, and Iraq are known to have developed techniques for. This isn't just Earl and Bubba going out and taking some scrapings from a dead cow. Would domestic terrorists have that kind of capability? But then, the article quotes a "government official with direct knowledge of the investigation" as saying that "the totality of the evidence in hand suggests that it is unlikely that the spores were originally produced in the former Soviet Union or Iraq." Does that mean they were weaponized by the United States?

Did we destroy all our stocks of weaponized anthrax?

Could some of our domestic loonies have gotten ahold of actual U.S. military bioweapons?

Or are these unnamed government sources just blowing smoke?

[Larry Mudd]

That's a very interesting article, MEBuckner, but I think that in some ways it is a bit misleading.
The presence of the high-grade additive was confirmed for the first time yesterday by a government source familiar with the ongoing studies..Sounds definitive, but later, they elaborate:"The amount of energy needed to disperse the spores was trivial, which is [b]virtually diagnostic of achieving the appropriate coating." - Alan Zelicoff, a senior scientist at Sandia National Laboratories' Center for National Security and Arms ControlThat sounds more like an inference than a confirmation to me. The hypothetical coating in question is intended to obviate clumping due to static charge.But more than that is needed to get anthrax spores to drift easily in the air and spread widely without settling quickly to the ground. That is because tiny particles tend to have electrostatic charges.Package-handling facilities that I have worked at all have conductive "streamers" hanging over the conveyer-belt, the intention of which is to ground out everything that moves across the belt. Could this have any effect on individual particles, and, for that matter, do the conveyers in question have these? Also, it seems to me that the particles that would escape the envelope would be necessarily fine, and likely were blown into the air with the compressed air used to clean the machines.

As for how sophisticated a Militia mentality perp is likely to be, this page (http://www.tetrahedron.org/articles/bioweapons/Larry_Harris_Followers_Beware.html) has a fairly objective analysis of Larry Harris's credentials, from the dawn of proto-history, when he was still writing books about how to prepare for a biological attack by Muslim terrorists. I don't know how typical the guy is.

[Sam Stone]

I'll still lay 100 to 1 odds that this is NOT a domestic terrorist.

The type of anthrax we're talking about is just not easy to get. It was probably either stolen from the Soviet Union's stocks, or manufactured in Iraq. My money is on Iraq, and has been since I first heard of the Anthrax in Florida.

That doesn't mean that Iraq attacked us. They could have given it to Bin Laden years ago to attack Russians with. Or they could have given it to him before the WTC attack just as some quid-pro-quo for something, and not even know what he was going to use it for.

But certainly Iraq has to be considered the top contender right now.

Oh, and I don't buy the 'right-wing nut' theory. They want attention. If they sent the stuff, it would have been with notes saying, "First Bin Laden, and now us."

[squeegee]

Anthrax Killer Profile:

The same type of person (or the same person?!) as the Tylenol killer (http://www.personal.psu.edu/users/w/x/wxk116/tylenol/). This is the only other 'anonymous, widespread poisoning' case I can think of, although the killer used retail medicine rather than the mails as a delivery system.

Check out the profile at the bottom of the above link; very interesting.

[pennylane]

Sam Stone, I have heard claims from several "experts" on both BBC and CNN that the anthrax was not manufactured in Iraq, but was the kind made in the United States or Russia. (These were unofficial experts - university professors and the like.) I can't vouch for the accuracy of this statement, but after hearing it from many unrelated sources I can't help but wonder if it might be true.

[aegypt]

Would-be profilers could find food for thought at the New Scientist (British science mag) bioterrorism page:

http://www.newscientist.com/hottopics/bioterrorism/

Especially relevant:

http://www.newscientist.com/hottopics/bioterrorism/trailofterror.jsp

Appearantly, there's a possible connection to Libya, which would point the finger at radical Islamists:
Wouter Basson, former head of the South African bioweapons programme [which had access to the Ames strain], made several trips to Libya after the fall of the apartheid government in 1994.

[audient]

i'd bet one thing about the anthrax terrorist(s) -

that they didn't expect this to affect postal workers to the extent it has. Anthrax has never been distributed thru mail before (I don't know that it's been intentionally distributed in any fashion before). I can't imagine the culprits figured it would spill out into mailrooms on its way to its target. That just seems inadvertant. The bummer here is that the postal workers seem to be bearing the brunt of the anthrax attack.

whether that fact delights or dissappoints the terrorist(s) I couldn't guess.

[aegypt]

Here's another possibility: Atta got the spores from the Iraqi intelligence officer he met up with in Prague.
German investigators link bin Laden and Iraq with anthrax outbreak

German investigators think Iraq and Osama bin Laden are involved in the US anthrax outbreaks.

They believe suicide hijacker Mohammed Atta received anthrax spores from an Iraqi intelligence chief in Prague.

Iraq denies involvement in either the September 11 atrocities or the anthrax attacks.

According to the Daily Express, investigators believe Atta kept the spores in Hamburg before taking them to New York.

Iraq is one of three countries thought to be capable of making the special anthrax spores which have been treated with a chemical, enabling them to stay in the air longer.

The other countries are the US and Soviet Union.

Story filed: 09:05 Friday 26th October 2001

[leroy_the_mule]

Originally posted by Sam Stone

The type of anthrax we're talking about is just not easy to get. It was probably either stolen from the Soviet Union's stocks, or manufactured in Iraq.


Au contraire...I heard on NPR (http://search.npr.org/cf/cmn/cmnpd01fm.cfm?PrgDate=10/25/2001&PrgID=2) a report in which Harvard geneticist Matthew Meselson states the "weaponization" of anthrax involves the same process as the commercial aerosolizing of bacillus thuringiensis, a close relative of anthrax and an important organic agricultural pesticide.

It is possible a white supremacist working for Monsanto manufacturing BT would know exactly how to do it with anthrax.

[xanakis]

If, as Larry Mudd says, the letter sent to Africa turned out not to have contained anthrax then I think we are looking at a domestic terrorist. That was the only sticking point - the Africa letter was mailed on 8 September.

However I've not seen any other confirmatory evidence of this apart from the local Atlanta newspaper LM linked to. This BBC (http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/world/africa/newsid_1617000/1617185.stm) article seems to indicate there is some doubt whether there was anthrax or not.

A statement reportedly released by the US Federal Bureau of Investigation said the material tested in Kenya may have been mildew or fungus. However, the Kenyan health ministry said it had not been informed of subsequent findings contrary to its initial analysis.

"We have not seen the additional tests. Our position remains the same. We are not aware of new results," the ministry's director of medical services Richard Muga told AFP news agency.

However I did think of another angle to all this.

Imagine you've got yourself a jar of anthrax powder and you want to transfer some of this powder to an envelope. How would you do it?

The moment you opened the jar you would release spores into the room. So you couldn't do this at your house. Or even in a hotel room.

If you did it in a hotel then the spores would remain there and subsequent guests would be infected. We would hear about this and could then track down the perpetrator.

And its not just the risk of infecting whatever room you happen to be in. You could not risk infecting yourself because then you would have to go to a doctor and get hold of some antibiotics. Even if you had yourself a store of antibiotics, you couldn't take the risk of contracting inhalation anthrax in which case the antibiotics may not work and you'd have to go to hospital.

The only way to avoid infecting yourself is by wearing an all-over protective suit.

So basically, there are only two ways to safely transfer those anthrax spores from the holding jar into the envelope:

1. You do it outside or in a disused barn a long way from anywhere

2. You do it in a laboratory

Either way, you'd need to wear a protective suit.

Then, once transferred, you've got to carry that envelope down to the nearest postbox. Presumably you would be wearing gloves and carrying it extremely gingerly.

All the above requires a lot of effort and specialist equipment.

Therefore I don't think its Joe Hick who hates muslims and ZOG (the Zionist Occupational Government).

This is somebody with a knowledge of microbiology who has access to the kind of equipment needed to carry out the plan.

One consolating factor is that, if it is indeed Joe Hick, then he will almost certainly end up infecting himself at some point and will probably die. This may have already happened, have any new envelopes have been posted in the last week or so?

Since the type of anthrax used is, if not weapons grade, then at least an advanced form of anthrax then I think this points away from Joe Hick and toward someone with a knowledge of biology and access to old US anthrax stocks.

Another reason it could be a domestic terrorist is because of that letter that was sent to Tom Daschle. Im not from the USA and I can tell you that we had never heard of this guy until he got that letter.

If I were a foreign terrorist considering who to send my anthrax letters to, he wouldn't be on my list.

I can understand sending letters to Bush, NBC, ABC etc but in what way would sending one to Tom Daschle further the interests of an Islamic Fundamentalist whose main beef is US forces in Iraq and Saudi and The Palestinian problem?

Something is not quite right about that.

[Cervaise]

For what it's worth, here's an Associated Press article from today (http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/ap/20011026/us/attacks_letters_2.html) summarizing experts' current thinking on the identity of the perpetrators. Well, what they're willing to say in public, anyway. For the most part, it recapitulates what's been discussed in this thread, but it's interesting that the authorities seem to have just as many competing theories about what's going on as do the posters here.

Me, I was very close to being convinced that it's a local nutcase, until I saw the news reports that Mohamed Atta was spotted by Czech police meeting with a known Iraqi operative. I still lean toward a domestic terrorist, but I'm not so sure now.

As far as the point raised by the Porpentine at the top of this page, that a Christian Identity cultist wouldn't pretend to be advancing another cause, I don't think that holds up. Christian Identity folks, I'm guessing, wouldn't really care about recruiting followers if they perceive themselves as being on the threshold of Armageddon (or whatever they call it). Rather, they'd do everything they could to make it come about.

Consider: If they say, "Hey, here's some anthrax, we're Christians who want to accelerate the end of the world," then the feds descend on every militia camp in North America, and the plot is over. But if they can keep the mystery roiling, and tensions rising, it's far more likely that they'll succeed in starting a nuclear war, or whatever equals Armageddon in their twisted theology.

I'm betting that if it's a domestic wacko, they thought the U.S. would leap to the conclusion that it was more of bin Laden's mischief. A weapons-of-mass-destruction attack demands a response "in kind," and that means the nukes should have been flying to Kabul immediately thereafter. After that, of course, even the the least tepid Muslim coalition members withdraw, and the end of the world, supposedly, is a big step closer. The fact that this didn't happen, I think, means that some inbred yokel in a mountain hut is chewing his fingers to the bone in frustration.

[Larry Mudd]

xanakis, it's important to remember that you don't have to be an in-bred, uneducated, unwashed, unemployed hick to be a white supremacist. (Although I'm sure it helps.) Larry Wayne Harris, (for example,) had rudimentary microbiology background, and had access to "millions" of dollars to buy lab equipment. Also, it's a safe bet that the perpetrators took the precaution of using some sort of pharmaceutical prophylaxis, so transfering the culture powder to an envelope would not be terribly risky...I've not seen any other confirmatory evidence of this...(Kenya letter negative for anthrax.)It does seem to be underreported. Here is another cite from the Washington Post (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A44845-2001Oct24.html):The correction was announced by the FBI field office in Atlanta, where Kenyan media say the letter was sent by the daughter of the Nairobi physician who opened it on Oct. 11. In addition to a letter, the packet contained fabric, which Kenyan authorities originally described as "bits of cloth."

[mazirian]

FBI and CIA Suspect Domestic Extremists
Officials Doubt Any Links to Bin Laden

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A59509-2001Oct26.html

[capacitor]

The were more potential targets: Planned Parenthood received calls, Iraqi diplomats who received suspicious letters, etc. I wait for those delivered to Israel. I tend to think that it is that Olympic Park bomber, Eric Robert Rudolph, or his group of sympathizers who was behind this.

[Zenster]

An excerpt from an article in the Washington Post:

----------------------------------------------
Several months before an employee of the Sun tabloid died from anthrax, the wife of the publication's editor helped two of the Sept. 11 hijackers find rental apartments here.

Suspected hijackers Marwan Al-Shehhi and Hamza Alghamdi hired real estate agent Gloria Irish to help them find temporary housing, she said in an interview with The Washington Post in September. Her husband is Sun Editor in Chief Mike Irish. He works in the American Media Inc. building, which has been the focus of an intensive investigation since anthrax was discovered in the facility and three employees were found to have been exposed.
----------------------------------------------

The level of coincidence involved here is almost astronomical. I also find the continued mention of controlled biotoxin particle diameters in the micron size range combined with the presence of anti-clumping compounds to be significant indicators that at least some of these spores were the product of a well funded, large scale scientific effort.

The milling and centrifuge equipment required to isolate aerosolized spores is not cheap. You do not simply erect such machines in a shed and begin churning out anthrax. When you factor in the ancillary safety measures and protective equipment needed to accomplish such a task the expense can rapidly exceed tens if not hundreds of thousands of dollars.

Combine this with the fact that Atta is now believed to have met an Iraqi operative in Prague and all of this pulls into a much sharper focus. Iraq is specifically known to have produced weapons grade anthrax spores in the past. As mentioned by Sam Stone, the anthrax attack is a classic "asymmetric threat" where few dollars are spent in order to wreak major havoc in a heavily imbalanced equation of military might. This is a hallmark of bin Laden's organization as well. I have yet to be shown compelling evidence that this attack was the work of our own domestic terrorists.

[Collounsbury]

Originally posted by Zenster

The level of coincidence involved here is almost astronomical.


Is it? Is there any reason to presume that the al-Qaeda cell had any knowledge of who her husband was, who he worked for and what the hell the talbloids were?

There is a chain of assumptions which make no sense. None at all. Even presuming that these guys, who I understand had nothing but a business relationship with her, somehow knew (how?) where her husband worked, why the fuck go for a supermarket rag? And how would they know he would get it? Why target the rag publisher anyway? Doesn't fit any logic I can discern.

Concidences do happen.

On the "Milling":

I also find the continued mention of controlled biotoxin particle diameters in the micron size range combined with the presence of anti-clumping compounds to be significant indicators that at least some of these spores were the product of a well funded, large scale scientific effort.


Calm down Zenster. I rather have the impression that some of this information has been revised. Indeed, recent comments have noted that a sufficiently sophisticated microbiologist with a private lab could have achieved this. I have commenced to take the assertios in re large scale efforts with a grain of salt now because my sense is they were based on out-of-date information (for North America with a large, sophisticated bio-tech industry).


The milling and centrifuge equipment required to isolate aerosolized spores is not cheap. You do not simply erect such machines in a shed and begin churning out anthrax. When you factor in the ancillary safety measures and protective equipment needed to accomplish such a task the expense can rapidly exceed tens if not hundreds of thousands of dollars.


There many bio-sciences labs in the US Zenster. Many.

Not trivial costs perhaps, but then one doesn't necessarily have to buy the equipment. Leased lab time, fraud, either direct or employee fraud etc ....


Combine this with the fact that Atta is now believed to have met an Iraqi operative in Prague and all of this pulls into a much sharper focus. Iraq is specifically known to have produced weapons grade anthrax spores in the past. As mentioned by Sam Stone, the anthrax attack is a classic "asymmetric threat" where few dollars are spent in order to wreak major havoc in a heavily imbalanced equation of military might. This is a hallmark of bin Laden's organization as well. I have yet to be shown compelling evidence that this attack was the work of our own domestic terrorists.

Your logic is not particularly good here. Nor Sam's.

Atta appears to have met, according to Czech sources, the Iraqi agent. Was it the first time? Was there a sustained relationship. Were the Iraqis simply meeting him to sound him out? Iraq has a lot to fear from al-Qaedesque opposition on its, they would be quite careful, I would expect, in their association with al-Qaeda, for their own health. It is unsurprising if Iraq has met al-Qaeda people. It is much more surprising if they actively work together.

Then, you make the assumption anthrax was passed. However, all reports indicate a domestic strain, not the strain known to have been in Iraqi hands.

Second, your characterization that these attacks have the "hallmark" of al-Qaeda is only true in a very trivial superficial sense in that they are terror attacks, and share the "assymetry" that by definition all terror attacks share.

Otherwise, they do not reflect past al-Qaeda behaviour. They are not terribly descructive -- although that could be just a mistake on the part of the sender--, they include notes utterly out of al-Qaeda's character to date, they appear improvised.... etc. I'm sure if you read the WP you've read the critical articles in this regard. Cherry picking facts.

Now, my own :

Firstly, the date. The American format does suggest someone who's been in the United States for something more than a quick run through or brief visits as throughout the Middle East and indeed most of the rest of the world a day-month-year format is used. Suggestive of at least some degree of acclimatization to the USA..

Speculation in regards to the handwriting seems unfounded. I'm not a specialist, I won't hazard any opinion beyond that the handwriting doesn't strike me as particularly ‘middle eastern-Roman character' problematic (and I should say that only the subliterate truly have problems with roman characters, being so ubiquitous in most places).

It does remind me of (a) someone who has poor handwriting command or (b) mimicking poor handwriting command. Whether the person is from place X, Y or Z strikes me as probably undeterminable for all that I am sure the handwriting analysis pseudo-science will make pronouncements.

Further, several persons raised a point which has occurred to me. The targets of the Anthrax letters suggest deep familiarity with America. Even well-informed folks in the Mid-East tend to have a very "Presidential" view of American politics. Political systems in the region are presidential, de facto even in cases where it is not de jure, and one's political world tends to inform one's understanding of other political worlds barring direct experience. To target Daschle reflects, in this world, a fairly sophisticated and indeed almost internal understanding of American politics, which I found to extremely rare, even among well-informed circles. The same for the targets at media companies. (The first target, the supermarket rag publisher is just too bizarre for words for this to be the work of foreigner. Frankly I doubt if any al-Qaeda member knows what the hell those papers are or cares.)

Conclusion: whoever is behind this has a fairly long-domestic exposure to US politics, enough to internalize American political workings. Not necessarily in a sophisticated manner but certainly more than the vast majority of MENA region folks. Does this exclude foreign elements? No, but it does render rather unlikely that it is a case of someone arriving recently doing this. And it strengthens in my mind the domestic connection.

Whether that connection is a white supremacist, a deranged person w/o real political links, a US-born Muslim extremist or some unknown third choice strikes me as currently unknowable. If it is a Bin Laden sympathizer (and my reading to now strikes me that this is just a bit too pat, rather too much of what an American thinks ‘Islamic Terrorists' are all about rather than the reality) I would lay heavy odds on the person being either American born (or long-time resident) and a non-Arabic speaker.

Even the sophistication of the actual anthrax strikes me as an area where one should be cautious in drawing conclusions. I have developed the sense that much of the biological warfare ‘common knowledge' or wisdom is dangerously out of date given advances in the bio-tech field in the past decade. Disturbingly, my sense from the business end is that in biotech, sophisticated equipment is is not that hard to get one's mits on by hook or by crook in North America and material controls not that strict.

However, it does strike me as rather silly to make a priori assertions in regards to the white supremacist angle being excludeable because the poster supposes that such groups want attention.

The pounding of the anti-Iraqi war-drums being knee-jerk and all that, but one might care to try to find factual grounding for it. One meeting between Atta and an Iraqi agent, as yet known through the Czechs only, does not strike me as convincing in light of other, harder facts. Same, it appears for the CIA and FBI.

[Sam Stone]

I guess you are ignoring all the 'unnamed sources' within the administration that are now pointing the finger at Iraq.

Only three countries were known to have knowledge of how to coat anthrax spores to keep them suspended in air - the U.S., the Soviet Union, and Iraq. The U.S. destroyed most of its anthrax stocks in the mid 1980's, and keeps only small sample quantities. The Soviet Union did lose track of some of its anthrax stocks, and has to be considered a possibility.

However, Iraq was making the stuff by the TON. And a lot of it couldn't be found by U.N. weapons inspectors. And there have been no weapons inspections in Iraq for years. And Saddam hates America, and we know Iraq sponsors terrorism against the U.S. Further, we know that Iraq has no qualms about using weapons of mass destruction, since they used chemical warfare against the Kurds and Iranians.

Then we have a fairly substantial report that Atta met with an agent of Iraqi intelligence before Sept. 11.

This is the evidence for Iraq's involvement. It is circumstantial to be sure, but still fairly significant.

The argument for a domestic nut on the other hand, is very thin. The terrorist used a U.S. date format. This is evidence? You're sure not giving much credence to Osama's intelligence. Making sure you use the right date formats would have to fall under Deception 101 in terrorism school. And they have a deep knowledge of America? Apparently you missed the part where Atta and the other 18 hijackers spent YEARS in the United States? Or that Bin Laden has a degree and spent many years abroad? Or that anyone can get their hands on an intro American Civics text?

None of that type of 'intelligence' is worth a nickel. Once you admit that the enemy is relatively sophisticated, things like getting addresses of government buildings and not making obvious grammatical errors is a given. Absence or presence of it is completely irrelevant to the analysis.

[Collounsbury]

Originally posted by Sam Stone
I guess you are ignoring all the 'unnamed sources' within the administration that are now pointing the finger at Iraq.


Ignoring them? Nah, I know some of them vaguely. Those unnamed sources have been beating that drum from the get-go. Clearly data is not informing their desire to take a crack at Saddam.


Only three countries were known to have knowledge of how to coat anthrax spores to keep them suspended in air - the U.S., the Soviet Union, and Iraq.


Sam, are willfully ignoring the revised estimation on the anthrax, including the opinion that a good microbiologist could have achieved the observed Anthrax?

Nor do I recall, and of course with so much to keep track of it is possible I've forgotten or missed something, that the coating issue is confirmed. As has been pointed out in other threads on anthrax, microbiological processing capacity has advanced a great deal since the 1970s and 1980s -- my sense is much of the intitial assertions date from assumptions based on these baseline technologies -- and the issue of reducing the electrostatic charge of micro-particles dealt with in a number of different ways.

Mind you, I am not excluding, say the Soviet option, I am simply adopting some healthy skepticism in regards to this information given many assumptions about anthrax as a bio-weapon seem to me to be based on out-dated technological baselines.


The U.S. destroyed most of its anthrax stocks in the mid 1980's, and keeps only small sample quantities. The Soviet Union did lose track of some of its anthrax stocks, and has to be considered a possibility.


You're speaking of course of the governmental weapon stocks. I believe, if I recall the NYTimes and WP reports correctly, that the sole id'd strain is a naturally occuring one in the USA.

Ergo, we can not operate on the presumption that the anthrax was from anyone's weapon stocks. It could have been independently developed. Again, the issue remains the unknown level of art needed to achieve this.

If there is one thing we can be certain of, past estimations on anthrax as a bio-weapon need to be reviewed, critically.

However, Iraq was making the stuff by the TON. And a lot of it couldn't be found by U.N. weapons inspectors. And there have been no weapons inspections in Iraq for years.


And the id'd strains don't match known Iraqi strains but rather seem to be, again if my recollection of the public reports are correct, of domestic ordinary origin even if milled.

And Saddam hates America, and we know Iraq sponsors terrorism against the U.S.


Yes, Saddam has little reason to love the US of A. But he does like his own skin. He's a stupid thug, but he's not utterly irrational. He has some pretty poor set of frameworks for judging the rest of the world's actions -- his misjudgements to date have been severe.

But nothing like this. Saddam, I am sure, understands if this were confirmed against Iraq that his days would be over. I doubt the risk would be taken. Doubt but do not exclude. Merely hating the US doesn't get us to anthrax terrorism. At least not directly. Indirectly is another story.


Further, we know that Iraq has no qualms about using weapons of mass destruction, since they used chemical warfare against the Kurds and Iranians.


Yes, against folks he knows can't get to him. He has no scruples. He's basicaly a mafia boy in charge of country, but within his little universe, he's not utterly irrational. Again, I'm not excluding Iraq, but I do put it way down on the likely list.


Then we have a fairly substantial report that Atta met with an agent of Iraqi intelligence before Sept. 11.


Shrug, of which we know nothing.


This is the evidence for Iraq's involvement. It is circumstantial to be sure, but still fairly significant.


It's evidence of Iraqi contacts with al-Qaeda, Sam, but that does not make the logical leap that (a) Atta et al, cell is connected with the Anthrax (b) that if they were they got if from the Iraqis.

You're drawing together a wish list to go after the poster boy.


The argument for a domestic nut on the other hand, is very thin.


If we are to believe published reports in re the CIA and FBI, it appears they disagree.


The terrorist used a U.S. date format. This is evidence?


Reread what I wrote, Sam: I noted it is evidence of someone acclimatized to the USA. Doesn't say who that is.

You're sure not giving much credence to Osama's intelligence.


I give great credence to al-Qaeda's organization and intelligence. I also put that in the context of what I know about the blinders in re culture and the like.


Making sure you use the right date formats would have to fall under Deception 101 in terrorism school.


Sam, this is frankly a staggeringly ...illogical response. The letters make specific reference to 'Islamic" themes -- or better to the stereotyped langauge of the same. Hardly "deception" from the POV of an al-Qaeda cell, yes Sam?


And they have a deep knowledge of America? Apparently you missed the part where Atta and the other 18 hijackers spent YEARS in the United States?


No Sam, but I have managed to keep facts and assumptions seperate. They came and went on multiple occasions, sticking to themselves largely, and staying, with the exception of the flight school, within their 'community.' Or so published reports lead me to understand.

Their overall profile strikes me as not having an intimate contact with American society nor its political system. Nor much interest in the same.


Or that Bin Laden has a degree and spent many years abroad?


Bin Laden has a Saudi degree --I think I recall it was technical, but in any case, it wasn't American Civ-- and he spent a handful of years in Bierut. So, Sam, what does that mean?

I shared with you, Sam, my judgement, based on direct professional experience including speaking with officials --in their own language mind you, that most folks, even educated have a very poor understanding of actual power workings in American politics. Dismiss if you wish, but I would hope that your own assumptions are based on something substantive.

In any case, my judgement was that the targets reflect someone with long residence here and/or good integration into the community. That does not match the Atta et al cell. You will note that I did not exclude other choices, including al-Qaeda sympathizers or perhaps a fringe cell such as the one recently broken up in Bruxelles.


Or that anyone can get their hands on an intro American Civics text?


Absolutely Sam, but understanding and internalizing that abstract information is entirely another game. I sense there's no yanking you out of your assumptions so I'll not belabor the issue.

None of that type of 'intelligence' is worth a nickel. Once you admit that the enemy is relatively sophisticated, things like getting addresses of government buildings and not making obvious grammatical errors is a given. Absence or presence of it is completely irrelevant to the analysis.

Frankly, I have no idea what you think you are arguing here, other than that you don't need real evidence to link the attacks to Iraq, your a priori enemy number one.

[xanakis]

The only problem I had with the domestic terrorist theory is that some of the letters were posted before 11 September.

However this article (http://www.observer.co.uk/international/story/0,6903,582222,00.html) in todays UK Observer could possibly answer all the questions.

The article suggests it could be both domestic terrorists and al qaeda working together. Neo-nazi extremists share a similar hatred of US federal Government and they have been known to work together before in Europe although not, so far, in America.

Maybe the nazi group did have prior knowledge of the WTC attack and timed their attack to coincide with it. They may not have known the precise details of the WTC but they may have known that something big was going to go down on that day.

Maybe Atta did get the anthrax off the Iraqi agent but not to use himself. He got it in order to hand it on to the nazi group.

The Oklahoma bomb will have impressed al qaeda. It will have shown them that there are domestic elements within the US who hate the government every bit as much as they do. It will maybe have made al qaeda think that these groups could be trusted to form a temporary alliance with.

I realise we don't have enough evidence to full justify this theory yet but its something to think about.

[Collounsbury]

I don't see that the posting of letters before 11 September is actually relevant quite as yet.

I don't recall the precise time-line but I only recall the Kenyan letter being posted 8 September and that turned out to be not at all related to this whole thing. I don't believe we have a date on the Florida letter -- but again with so much to keep track of I no doubt am forgetting.

In any event, as I said, coincidences do happen. I don't find that likely, but as matter of logic, that is not a reason to conclude anything.

In regards to al-Qaeda working with neo-Nazi groups. I am of two minds in this.

On one hand, shared illogical hatred of "the Jews" and modern American society in all its pluralism certainly provides a lot more common ground than one might think.

On the other hand, my experience with people on the al-Qaeda end of the polito-religious spectrum leads me to suspect they would not be terribly enthusiastic about working with Xtian infidels of any kind. Their paranioa level is very high, and with good reason. Their organizations only survive through discipline and paranioa. See my post in the deterrance of terrorism thread.

I find it hard to imagine someone like Atta -- I feel know the man, based on my time in Egypt and knowledge of that social class -- would trust handing off something he recieved from Iraqis (and again this runs into the objection that current public information indicates it is an American domestic strain in at least two major cases) to some infidil. The possibilities of getting trapped rather outweigh the possible gains.

No, the whole scenario runs against everything I know about these folks. That is al-Qaeda and related organizations in the violent end of the Islamist political spectrum.

However, the article's raising the issue of some kind of extremist Islamist and Neo-Nazi cohabitation is not to be dismissed. I doubt that it would be al-Qaeda, or this specific cell but that does not rule out sympathizers or fringe cells.

[Zenster]

Originally posted by Collounsbury
Is it? Is there any reason to presume that the al-Qaeda cell had any knowledge of who her husband was, who he worked for and what the hell the tabloids were?Please consider what the odds are against someone having direct (or even remote) contact with the hijackers and then also being in close proximity to one of the very first exposure sites. The odds defy imagination. Also try to remember that the Enquirer had front page full headlines showing bin Laden's photo and reading "Wanted Dead of Alive" with the "Alive" crossed out. While I agree that the publication in and of itself is no major player we cannot afford to assume that such an offensive headline wouldn't garner some animosity.

There is a chain of assumptions which make no sense. None at all. Even presuming that these guys, who I understand had nothing but a business relationship with her, somehow knew (how?) where her husband worked, why the fuck go for a supermarket rag? And how would they know he would get it? Why target the rag publisher anyway? Doesn't fit any logic I can discern.

Coincidences do happen.But the likelihood of this one still remains exceedingly slim. Having two of the most significant terrorist attacks in the entire planet's history come up with such close linking is conspicuous no matter how you slice it.Originally posted by Collounsbury
On the "Milling":

I also find the continued mention of controlled biotoxin particle diameters in the micron size range combined with the presence of anti-clumping compounds to be significant indicators that at least some of these spores were the product of a well funded, large scale scientific effort.


Calm down Zenster. I rather have the impression that some of this information has been revised. Indeed, recent comments have noted that a sufficiently sophisticated microbiologist with a private lab could have achieved this. I have commenced to take the assertions in re large scale efforts with a grain of salt now because my sense is they were based on out-of-date information (for North America with a large, sophisticated bio-tech industry).
The milling and centrifuge equipment required to isolate aerosolized spores is not cheap. You do not simply erect such machines in a shed and begin churning out anthrax. When you factor in the ancillary safety measures and protective equipment needed to accomplish such a task the expense can rapidly exceed tens if not hundreds of thousands of dollars.


There [are] many bio-sciences labs in the US Zenster. Many.

Not trivial costs perhaps, but then one doesn't necessarily have to buy the equipment. Leased lab time, fraud, either direct or employee fraud etc ....


Combine this with the fact that Atta is now believed to have met an Iraqi operative in Prague and all of this pulls into a much sharper focus. Iraq is specifically known to have produced weapons grade anthrax spores in the past. As mentioned by Sam Stone, the anthrax attack is a classic "asymmetric threat" where few dollars are spent in order to wreak major havoc in a heavily imbalanced equation of military might. This is a hallmark of bin Laden's organization as well. I have yet to be shown compelling evidence that this attack was the work of our own domestic terrorists. A single individual working in a "private" lab presupposes that someone could rally the inordinate amounts of equipment and resources without any mishap occurring. While self-innoculation might render a certain margin of safety, there still remains the risk of an inadvertent release which could easily have highly noticeable after effects (like masses of dying livestock). I also find it extremely unlikely that a given biotech industry employee could surreptitiously sideline the fermenters, freeze dryers, mills, centrifuges and the critical decontamination equipment needed to perform the biotoxin isolation (and then cover it up) without attracting the glare of corporate safety and oversight watchdogs. Yes, the biotech industry had expanded exponentially in recent years. That selfsame expansion has also witnessed huge advances in the ability and requirement for such commercial ventures to closely monitor their product for quality control and incidental contamination. Finding even a hint of manufactured biotoxin (I'm talking about detection of parts per million, if not billions) would send up warning flags visible from the moon. Huge product liabilities and their attendant negative publicity when coupled with the danger of unintentional release make this unavoidable.

Your argument against this is less than compelling.

Your logic is not particularly good here. Nor Sam's.

Atta appears to have met, according to Czech sources, the Iraqi agent. Was it the first time? Was there a sustained relationship. Were the Iraqis simply meeting him to sound him out? Iraq has a lot to fear from al-Qaedesque opposition on its, they would be quite careful, I would expect, in their association with al-Qaeda, for their own health. It is unsurprising if Iraq has met al-Qaeda people. It is much more surprising if they actively work together.In deductive situations it is useful to apply Occam's Razor. While I agree that it is almost too simple to be believed, Iraq's puzzle piece fits into this problem with almost breathtaking ease. Again, this does not necessarily make it so, but certainly and justifiably focuses a disproportionate degree of the spotlight upon Iraq.

Then, you make the assumption anthrax was passed. However, all reports indicate a domestic strain, not the strain known to have been in Iraqi hands.Collounsbury, out of respect for your quite obvious degree of lettering I am obliged to assume that you are fully aware that the domestically isolated Ames strain of this biotoxin was shared with Iraq. Which brain-dead moron was responsible for this calamity will remain one of the great mysteries of our time. Consequently, the presence of this particular strain excludes none of the mentioned players. The preponderance of other evidence (however circumstantial) keeps the crosshairs centered squarely upon Iraq.

Second, your characterization that these attacks have the "hallmark" of al-Qaeda is only true in a very trivial superficial sense in that they are terror attacks, and share the "asymmetry" that by definition all terror attacks share.

Otherwise, they do not reflect past al-Qaeda behaviour. They are not terribly destructive -- although that could be just a mistake on the part of the sender--, they include notes utterly out of al-Qaeda's character to date, they appear improvised.... etc. I'm sure if you read the WP you've read the critical articles in this regard. Cherry picking facts.While al Qaeda demonstrates a definite predilection for more abrupt and devastating modes of attack, their callous disregard for massive loss of human life returns the ball of responsibility for this bioterrorism into their court at lightning speed. Whatever valid aspects that might be lacking in the MO are quickly counterbalanced by another too perfect fit with the end results.Now, my own:

Firstly, the date. The American format does suggest someone who's been in the United States for something more than a quick run through or brief visits as throughout the Middle East and indeed most of the rest of the world a day-month-year format is used. Suggestive of at least some degree of acclimatization to the USA...Al Qaeda has already demonstrated a solid willingness to park their operatives within our borders for protracted periods, so this point proves little either way.Speculation in regards to the handwriting seems unfounded. I'm not a specialist, I won't hazard any opinion beyond that the handwriting doesn't strike me as particularly ‘middle eastern-Roman character' problematic (and I should say that only the subliterate truly have problems with Roman characters, being so ubiquitous in most places).

It does remind me of (a) someone who has poor handwriting command or (b) mimicking poor handwriting command. Whether the person is from place X, Y or Z strikes me as probably undeterminable for all that I am sure the handwriting analysis pseudo-science will make pronouncements.Here we are in large agreement, despite being some of the only direct evidence involved in the case, the handwriting does not provide incontrovertible proof of anything. Especially in light of the previous points mentioned.Further, several persons raised a point which has occurred to me. The targets of the Anthrax letters suggest deep familiarity with America. Even well-informed folks in the Mid-East tend to have a very "Presidential" view of American politics. Political systems in the region are presidential, de facto even in cases where it is not de jure, and one's political world tends to inform one's understanding of other political worlds barring direct experience. To target Daschle reflects, in this world, a fairly sophisticated and indeed almost internal understanding of American politics, which I found to extremely rare, even among well-informed circles.Here you make one of your first truly hard to argue points. The targetting of Daschel is something that has an extremely poor fit with external terrorist motives. However, it behooves us to remember that terrorists are not always explicable or rational. Still, I must concur that this one is akin to the trout in the milk pail. It does require some explaining. The same for the targets at media companies. (The first target, the supermarket rag publisher is just too bizarre for words for this to be the work of foreigner. Frankly I doubt if any al-Qaeda member knows what the hell those papers are or cares.)Unless you had lived in the USA for a time and were directly exposed to these newsprint rolls of toilet paper. A terrorist who lived in the exact same town as the publications headquarters might just take umbrage and redirect a little of his plan towards a stark object lesson for the offenders. This is not a too wild speculation to make.Conclusion: whoever is behind this has a fairly long-domestic exposure to US politics, enough to internalize American political workings. Not necessarily in a sophisticated manner but certainly more than the vast majority of MENA region folks. Does this exclude foreign elements? No, but it does render rather unlikely that it is a case of someone arriving recently doing this. And it strengthens in my mind the domestic connection.And neither are many elements of al Qaeda's US based network so recently arrived. There has been ample opportunity for assimilation of this degree of realpolitik to enable this facet of the attack. Again, this is a seemingly disjunct fragment but not entirely out of the question.Whether that connection is a white supremacist, a deranged person w/o real political links, a US-born Muslim extremist or some unknown third choice strikes me as currently unknowable. If it is a Bin Laden sympathizer (and my reading to now strikes me that this is just a bit too pat, rather too much of what an American thinks ‘Islamic Terrorists' are all about rather than the reality) I would lay heavy odds on the person being either American born (or long-time resident) and a non-Arabic speaker.None of which decisively rules out a link to the terrorists that are already actively engaged in operations that have had such a disruptive effect on our nation.Even the sophistication of the actual anthrax strikes me as an area where one should be cautious in drawing conclusions. I have developed the sense that much of the biological warfare ‘common knowledge' or wisdom is dangerously out of date given advances in the bio-tech field in the past decade. Disturbingly, my sense from the business end is that in biotech, sophisticated equipment is not that hard to get one's mitts on by hook or by crook in North America and material controls not that strict.Please review my previous comments on equipment and production methods.However, it does strike me as rather silly to make a priori assertions in regards to the white supremacist angle being excludable because the poster supposes that such groups want attention.I agree.The pounding of the anti-Iraqi war-drums being knee-jerk and all that, but one might care to try to find factual grounding for it. One meeting between Atta and an Iraqi agent, as yet known through the Czechs only, does not strike me as convincing in light of other, harder facts. Same, it appears for the CIA and FBI. [/B]Again I will invoke Occam's Razor as a clear reason for us to maintain a full ongoing investigation of Iraq as we examine the other angles in this admittedly complex case.

[Collounsbury]

Originally posted by Zenster
The odds defy imagination.


Do they? I don't know the proper variables to estimate the odds. It's all well and fine to assert this but frankly we lack any real statistical basis to know how to assess this. It is rather like the folks who assert that the odds are against evolution happening.


Also try to remember that the Enquirer had front page full headlines showing bin Laden's photo and reading "Wanted Dead of Alive" with the "Alive" crossed out. While I agree that the publication in and of itself is no major player we cannot afford to assume that such an offensive headline wouldn't garner some animosity.


Bah, I repeat, I'll lay large odds that few if any al-Qaeda folks care one whit what the US press says about ObL and even fewer have seen or are aware of or care about the Enquirer and fewer still know where the publisher is located etc. etc.

Chain of assumptions. If I build a probability tree, this doesn't look very convincing to me given present knowledge.

Having two of the most significant terrorist attacks in the entire planet's history come up with such close linking is conspicuous no matter how you slice it.


Our history. I have no doubts they are temporally linked. And casually in a weak sense. That does not lead ipso-facto to the conclusion the same group is reponsible, versus piggy-backing etc.


Assumptions:

A single individual working in a "private" lab


First, assuming single individual seems to have no basis. I have no basis to make an assumption, based on public information, either way. Either Islamistes or White Supremecists could be working in groups. I see no basis for us to make assumptions one way or the other.


presupposes that someone could rally the inordinate amounts of equipment and resources without any mishap occurring.


On what basis are you making judgements about the amounts of equipment and resources.

To my knowledge we have no idea how much anthrax there is.

To my knowledge we have few firm ideas about the actual requirements for processing an unknown amount of anthrax.

To my knowledge, we have no basis to make assumptions on risk of handling per se. Well, I will advance the weak opinion that my experience in the business end of bio-tech and gen-engineering lead me to the sensation you are sensationalizing the handling threat for a well-trained lab technician. I've met plenty in my career, it does not strike me that a disciplined, educated lab technician with a decent background, as many have, in micro-biology could not safely handle and culture pathogens. But, I admit I'm an econ and political risk guy with a decent but not truly substantive background in the biosciences. I can read a genetics paper, but lord knows I couldn't replicate it.


While self-innoculation might render a certain margin of safety, there still remains the risk of an inadvertent release which could easily have highly noticeable after effects (like masses of dying livestock).


Yes, there is a risk. Risk taking is part of being involved in terror activities. What that risk is and how controlable the risk is, that is the genuine question.

On the basis of my admittedly somewhat arms-length and superficial knowledge of my own firm's labs, (which don't deal in this kind of thing but we do have to be worried about contamination etc, something of the flip side of the equation), I don't see this as a genuine barrier.


I also find it extremely unlikely that a given biotech industry employee could surreptitiously sideline the fermenters, freeze dryers, mills, centrifuges and the critical decontamination equipment needed to perform the biotoxin isolation (and then cover it up) without attracting the glare of corporate safety and oversight watchdogs.


You don't. Fuck, then you know better than I. We fucking lost a major fucking package of our cultures once. Back in 97 as I recall. A huge amount of money down the drain. Ooh, that was one fucked up disaster. Thank god I wasn't part of that team, those poor bastids.

I'm going to suggest that you've got an unnecessarily Andromeda strain vision of how these things work. Take a look at the documented case of what's his face, the supermacist that was twice busted for holding bio-toxins.

In the pre-11 September world, I frankly don't think that it is terribly difficult to imagine a disciplined, careful group -- or individual-- being able to fraudulently use corporate lab facilities to create a small batch of anthrax. Given that we don't have data on how much anthrax is out there, what it's nature is etc. there is no basis -- on my limited experience-- to exclude this.


Yes, the biotech industry had expanded exponentially in recent years. That selfsame expansion has also witnessed huge advances in the ability and requirement for such commercial ventures to closely monitor their product for quality control and incidental contamination.


Yeah, we do our best as far as I know. However, we're not military. I can't on my knowledge exclude careful individuals not being able to avoid detection. There ain't no corporate cops you know.


Finding even a hint of manufactured biotoxin (I'm talking about detection of parts per million, if not billions) would send up warning flags visible from the moon. Huge product liabilities and their attendant negative publicity when coupled with the danger of unintentional release make this unavoidable.


You're mixing different ideas and parts of the product stream Zenster. In regards to using production facilities, well yeah, I agree introducing a toxin into the system would not be feasible. Well, let me retract that. Would be low on my understanding of likelihood.

However, research labs are a different beast. There, firstly, you often have all kinds of whacky things around. you never know what you can turn up. So testing is going on in different projects etc. Product liability is not the concern, rather keeping your documentation good so that you can go to the patent examiner on D-Day and get that killer patent on your work. And police state things don't work in the research lab. We gotta give our folks a bit of leash -- in my experience -- to cook up new ideas. Now of course there is oversight, we can't be flushing another million down on a failed gene line, but on the other hand we do need good new future lines.

Of course, my experience is all around plant biotech. I am imagining that medical bio-tech research labs do not differ that substantially in terms of structure. (And that my business end understanding of our labs is correct. I'm attempting to be careful here on the knowledge that my occasional tours and beers with our lab-boys do not make me an expert. I have some ideas, but they are superficial)

[qutoe]
Your argument against this is less than compelling.
[/quote]

Shrug, frankly your argument doesn't strike me as well informed.


In deductive situations it is useful to apply Occam's Razor. While I agree that it is almost too simple to be believed, Iraq's puzzle piece fits into this problem with almost breathtaking ease. Again, this does not necessarily make it so, but certainly and justifiably focuses a disproportionate degree of the spotlight upon Iraq.


No, it does not. Occam's razor works when one has the correct set of information and one does not abstract away from relevant data.


Then, you make the assumption anthrax was passed. However, all reports indicate a domestic strain, not the strain known to have been in Iraqi hands.Collounsbury, out of respect for your quite obvious degree of lettering I am obliged to assume that you are fully aware that the domestically isolated Ames strain of this biotoxin was shared with Iraq.


Can you provide substnatiation on the Ames strain in particular being shared with Iraq? My understanding was the contrary. Now, given the rapidly evolving set of public information, I don't pretend to exclude this, it just runs contra what I read in the NYT and the WP.

The preponderance of other evidence (however circumstantial) keeps the crosshairs centered squarely upon Iraq.


There is no preponderance of evidence.


While al Qaeda demonstrates a definite predilection for more abrupt and devastating modes of attack, their callous disregard for massive loss of human life returns the ball of responsibility for this bioterrorism into their court at lightning speed. Whatever valid aspects that might be lacking in the MO are quickly counterbalanced by another too perfect fit with the end results.


Zenster, your rhetorical flourishes add little to your analysis. There's been no massive loss of life in this case, there is no "too perfect" fit with end results.

Now, I am not excluding innovation and branching out, but your characterization as fitting the MO of al-Qaeda is ludicrously superficial and meaningless.



Here you make one of your first truly hard to argue points. The targetting of Daschel is something that has an extremely poor fit with external terrorist motives. However, it behooves us to remember that terrorists are not always explicable or rational.


I disagree, I follow the logic of al-Qaeda and similar organizations quite well. Once you understand their world-view and framework, IMO, the logic and rationality of their actions really becomes much clearer. Assertions as to their illogic, from my POV, largely derive from lack of understanding of their base assumptions and frameworks of analysis.

These guys are whackos in the sense of running out and doing things they've not carefully considered. As I mentioned, these organizations have survived through discipline, cold rational calculations about structure and action etc.

All this said, I am not using this to argue that al-Qaeda is excludable. A cell long in place or perhaps a cell recruited from 'native' or 'nativized' Muslims is entirely concievable to me. Given the compartmentalized structure, however, they are highly unlikely to have known directly or indirectly about Atta.

What leads me to somewhat weakly favor, based on current public information, the white supremacist piste is the overall picture which just does not jibe for reasons already laid out.

And neither are many elements of al Qaeda's US based network so recently arrived.


Assertion, Zenster. We don't know. I don't exclude this, but neither do I feel a basis to make a characterization that "many elements" are here since such and such a time period.

It is an unknown.

Whether that connection is a white supremacist, a deranged person w/o real political links, a US-born Muslim extremist or some unknown third choice strikes me as currently unknowable. If it is a Bin Laden sympathizer (and my reading to now strikes me that this is just a bit too pat, rather too much of what an American thinks ‘Islamic Terrorists' are all about rather than the reality) I would lay heavy odds on the person being either American born (or long-time resident) and a non-Arabic speaker.None of which decisively rules out a link to the terrorists that are already actively engaged in operations that have had such a disruptive effect on our nation.


Did I make that argument?

[Collounsbury]

Originally posted by Collounsbury
These guys are whackos in the sense of running out and doing things they've not carefully considered.

Err insert not before whackos.

[Larry Mudd]

zenster: Iraq's puzzle piece fits into this problem with almost breathtaking ease.Only if you don't think about it. Collounsbury has covered it pretty well, but I wanted to offer this article from The Progressive (http://www.progressive.org/webex/wx102201.html) which addresses the suggestion that Iraq is implicated very well.Much of the case for the Iraq connection rests on two claims: first, Mohamed Atta met with an Iraqi intelligence officer in Prague last year; and second, the anthrax sent to Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle was "weapons grade" or "weaponized."

Both those claims are now being questioned: The anthrax, according to several reports, was not of the highly weaponized variety originally mentioned.

And Atta may never have met with that Iraqi intelligence officer in Prague, at least according to an article by John Tagliabue in The New York Times of Oct. 20. "Czech officials say they do not believe that Mohamed Atta . . . met with any Iraqi officials during a brief stop he made in Prague last year," the story said.

(The truth is hard to piece together on this one, though. The Wall Street Journal reported on Oct. 22 that "officials claim Atta met with one or more intelligence agents" in Prague in June 2000 and with an Iraqi diplomat in Prague in April 2001.)

One piece of anthrax evidence strongly indicates that Iraq was not involved: The type of anthrax used in the U.S. mail attacks, the so-called Ames strain, is one that Iraq doesn't seem to have.

"Federal scientists examining the anthrax used in the Florida and New York attacks have tentatively concluded that it is a domestic strain that bears no resemblance to the strains Russia and Iraq turned into biological weapons," David Johnston and William J. Broad reported for the Times on October 19. "To the best of their knowledge, Baghdad was unable to obtain the Ames strain."

[Zenster]

I think that there has been a huge amount of conflicting information put forth on this subject. While I agree that it would be political suicide for Saddam to risk reprisal and the continuation of sanctions, his prior positions render him a justifiable and central focus for our suspicions.

The notion of Aryan Nation colluding with al-Qaeda is almost as disturbing as it is ludicrous. But stranger things have been known to happen. First and foremost we need to accurately identify those who are responsible.

I maintain that the coincidences surrounding the anthrax attacks are extremely curious at the very least.

[Sam Stone]

I also think that there may be some disinformation going on. There are just too many conflicting claims being made by 'official' sources. Now I hear that this Anthrax may not have been coated and milled that fine, but not more than an hour ago on CNN they were reporting that it WAS coated and milled. And they repeated the claim that only a handful of labs could do this.

Another story mentioned today was that a microbiology student associated with Bin Laden was arrested today in Pakistan.

I think the prudent thing to do is just to wait and see what the final, official line is on the provenance of this stuff.

[Larry Mudd]

I agree that there is a certain amount of disinformation going on. That's natural enough, under the circumstances. I'm inclined to agree with Scott Ritter on this:Scott Ritter, the U.N. weapons inspector in Iraq from 1991 to 1998 who was a strong advocate for military action against Saddam Hussein in the days leading up to the Gulf War, discounts the Iraq link.

"Fears that that hidden hand of Saddam Hussein lies behind these attacks are based on rumor and speculation that, under close scrutiny, fail to support the weight of the charge," he wrote in the London Guardian on October 19.

Ritter confirms that Iraq did not have the Ames strain, and he notes that "Iraq's biological weapons programs were dismantled, destroyed, or rendered harmless during the course of hundreds of no-notice inspections."

Ritter denounces his former boss, Richard Butler, for getting on the "Get Baghdad" bandwagon. "Those who have suggested that Iraq is the source of the anthrax used in the current attacks-including Richard Butler, a former chairman of the U.N. weapons inspection effort-merely fan the flames of fear and panic. There is no verifiable link whatever, and it is irresponsible for someone of Mr. Butler's stature to be involved in unsubstantiated speculation."I suspect that the finger-pointing at Iraq is largely coming from interested parties. (cough.. profiteers.)
..not more than an hour ago on CNN they were reporting that it WAS coated and milled. And they repeated the claim that only a handful of labs could do this.I like the immediacy of CNN, but they are a little too selective about what they report. The still haven't bother to retract the Kenya letter story, as far as I know.

[Collounsbury]

Originally posted by Sam Stone
I also think that there may be some disinformation going on.


Of course, you do note my continued emphasis on "public", published etc.?

Not by accident that.

There are just too many conflicting claims being made by 'official' sources.


Well, much of that I attribute to bad information, some people's knees jerking, confusion and a genuine lack of substantive knowledge as I outlined above in re my suspicion that prior assertions in re biotech bioterrorism were based on outdated tech baselines.

But I also suspect some disinformation is also occuring.


Now I hear that this Anthrax may not have been coated and milled that fine, but not more than an hour ago on CNN they were reporting that it WAS coated and milled. And they repeated the claim that only a handful of labs could do this.


As Larry said, there is also quite a bit of sloppiness in the TV news reporting. Not just CNN IMO.

Another story mentioned today was that a microbiology student associated with Bin Laden was arrested today in Pakistan.


There is the connection I am willing to entertain. Note my prior comment, not an Arabic speaker.


I think the prudent thing to do is just to wait and see what the final, official line is on the provenance of this stuff.

True enough, I presume you're retracting your earlier certitude? I certainly feel little certitude myself, other than I am convinced the Atta connection is a non-starter.

[The Flying Dutchman]

My two cents worth.

The fact that the target for the anthrax terrorists included top media personalities leads me to consider that the home grown right wing groups are not involved. I've never paid much attention to these people,but I understand that their enemy is the federal government and some ethnic groups, but not the media.
Secondly, to the best of my knowledge, no right wing group has claimed any responsibility, and I can't see the logic in the terror unless it is accompanied by the message of why it occured. The predominant view expressed in the media certainly favours the foreign angle thus neutalizing the effect of their efforts.

Of course ObL and the lads have not claimed responsibility. This no doubt to address concerns in the mainline Muslim world and maximize the terror. But to the best of my knowledge they haven't denied responsibility for September 11th or the Anthrax attacks.


By the way, if an al Qaeda cell is responsible
for the Anthrax attacks, and the members are American citizens, does the term domestic still qualify? My point is how can we be sure al Qaeda is entirely foreign?

[Zenster]

Originally posted by grienspace
...By the way, if an al Qaeda cell is responsible
for the Anthrax attacks, and the members are American citizens, does the term domestic still qualify? My point is how can we be sure al Qaeda is entirely foreign? [/B]And those are d@mn good questions!

[Zenster]

Iraq 'behind US anthrax outbreaks'

· Pentagon hardliners press for strikes on Saddam
· Britain's GPs put on full alert over deadly disease
War on Terrorism: Observer special

David Rose and Ed Vulliamy, New York
Sunday October 14, 2001
The Observer

------------ excerpt ------------

Scientists investigating the attacks say the bacteria used is similar to the 'Ames strain' of anthrax originally cultivated at Iowa State University in the 1950s and later given to labs throughout the world, including Iraq.

----------------------------------
Emphasis mine

Just some more conflicting information.

[MEBuckner]

The fact that the target for the anthrax terrorists included top media personalities leads me to consider that the home grown right wing groups are not involved. I've never paid much attention to these people,but I understand that their enemy is the federal government and some ethnic groups, but not the media.
I dunno about that. Denunciations of the "Jewish-controlled" media seem pretty common in white supremacist circles.
Secondly, to the best of my knowledge, no right wing group has claimed any responsibility, and I can't see the logic in the terror unless it is accompanied by the message of why it occured. The predominant view expressed in the media certainly favours the foreign angle thus neutalizing the effect of their efforts.

Of course ObL and the lads have not claimed responsibility. This no doubt to address concerns in the mainline Muslim world and maximize the terror. But to the best of my knowledge they haven't denied responsibility for September 11th or the Anthrax attacks.
I confess the "logic" of these actions somewhat eludes me as well. However, explicit claims of responsiblity seem to have gone out of style with your modern terrorist. No one formally claimed responsibility for the Sept. 11 attacks. Similarly, Timothy McVeigh never seems to have bothered to issue any manifestos, nor has the person (presumably Eric Robert Rudolph) behind the bombings at the Atlanta Olympics and the subsequent bombings in Atlanta (an abortion clinic, a gay bar) and a clinic in Birmingham.

Besides, the theory behind the "white supremacist" angle is that they are deliberate disinformation. The anthrax-laden letters do contain a claim of responsibility, on behalf of some sort of radical Islamism ("Death to America--Death to Israel--Allah is great"); the question is, do they do so convincingly?

From a white supremacist point of view, the idea(s) behind the anthrax attacks, I suppose, would be to kill or terrorize the "liberal" and "Jewish-controlled" media, liberal politicians (Daschle), the federal ("Zionist occupational") government, and to get the whole thing blamed on Arab Muslim foreigners, thus fomenting war in general, and "race war" in particular.

[Larry Mudd]

grienspace:...I can't see the logic in the terror unless it is accompanied by the message of why it occured.It is a matter of record that there has recently been a white supremacist conspiracy to stage a biological attack with the intent that Iraq take the blame. Luckily, the FBI nipped that one in the bud, although the baddies are free today. These people have talked about using anthrax, and have stockpiled anthrax vaccine. Is it too hard to imagine the same people or others that are philosophically aligned with them, already in possesion of anthrax, and carrying out an existing plan at a serendipitously opportune time?Zenster: Scientists investigating the attacks say the bacteria used is similar to the 'Ames strain' of anthrax originally cultivated at Iowa State University in the 1950s and later given to labs throughout the world, including Iraq.The U.N. weapons inspector said that Iraq's weapons program used the "Vollum" strain. I figure he oughta know. :)

[Larry Mudd]

A few things: John Ashcroft confirmed today that the only additive to the anthrax was silica (http://www.monster-island.org/tinashumor/humor/sgel.html), which keeps the powder from clumping by making sure it stays dry. (So the culprit wouldn't necessarily have to alter the electrical field of the particles after all. ;))

This article (http://www.counterpunch.org/mccarthypierce.html) mentions that the infamous William Pierce (http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/world/americas/newsid_600000/600876.stm) had been talking about al-Qaeda anthrax attacks quite a bit:Upon perusing his speeches from 1998-99 I discovered that Pierce, who heads the so-called "National Alliance, " did indeed utter some most interesting(pre-Sept 11th)--if not prophetic--remarks about Osama bin Laden and bio-terrorism.

The running theme in Pierce's commentaries is--to paraphrase his hero Hitler-that Osama Bin Laden's warning to America is "I Am Coming." And so is bio-terrorism.If you don't know what the man is about, look here (http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/world/americas/newsid_600000/600876.stm). Not very sophisticated- Can you believe this (http://www.natvan.com/american-dissident-voices/adv043094.html) old line still is still playing?One of this century's greatest crimes, and probably one of the greatest crimes against women in history, was the mass rape of the conquered women of Europe after the Judeao-Communist victory there in 1945. The rapists were mainly Red Army soldiers, some of them non-White troops from the Asian and Middle Eastern Republics of the Soviet Union.The article describes Larry Wayne Harris as a "follower" of Pierce. I haven't heard this anywhere else yet. Interestingly, though, a 1997 article, THIS IS NOT A DRILL - ANTHRAX ATTACK MAY BE REAL -TAKE CAUTIONS (http://iresist.com/cbg/ramble/anthrax.html), by a "spokesman" for the North Central Florida Regional Militia, show that Harris was spreading these rumours in 1997. Also, I found a nice Acrobat file of the criminal complaint (http://www.lasvegassun.com/dossier/crime/bio/complaint.pdf) from Harris's 1998 arrest. Juicy stuff:[sup]9. The source stated that he met with Leavitt at approximately noon on February 24 18, 1998, and that Leavitt stated that he had "military grade"anthrax in flight bags in the trunk of his Mercedes-Benz automobile. That automobile, which is as described in 26 paragraph 3, above, is registered to a Gary M. Gerwin, of Palm Springs, California.
10. The source explained that he had originally been contacted some time ago to test E. coli and Bacillus subtilis bacteria, and had then been told on approximately February 17,1998, that Harris and Leavitt had other organisms to test as well. These organisms turned out to be Bacillus licheniformis, Bacillus Anthracis, and the above-
mentioned military-grade anthrax to test as well. The source stated that only a Biolevel III laboratory should have those toxins. The source stated that Harris and Leavitt did not want him to test the organisms, but wanted to buy the source's equipment, for which they would pay $2,000,000 and another $18,000,000 later so that they might test the organisms. The source would not be present during testing.

[Sam Stone]

Collounsbury: Well yeah, after another couple days of 'information', I'd certainly have to downgrade my 100:1 odds that Iraq is involved. If I were a bookie I'd still be laying even money on Iraqi involvement. That doesn't mean involvement in the sense that Hussein said, "Hey, let's get in on the action and commit suicide by launching a bioterror attack against the most powerful nation on earth!", which I agree doesn't make much sense. A more likely scenario for Iraqi involvement would have been for them to slide some Anthrax to Bin Laden well before Sept 11, before they knew just how big a deal this was all going to be. Or perhaps he told them that he planned to use it just to threaten the U.S., or even that he was going to use it against someone else. Or he had convinced them that it could never be traced back to them.

However, I'd be happy to lay pretty good odds that this is NOT an attack by an unrelated domestic terrorist. It just doesn't pass my Occam's Razor test. To assume that a right-wing group just happened to have a quantity of anthrax available, in weaponized form, and just happened to be ready to mail it out just after the WTC attacks, doesn't strike me as being very likely. And it also doesn't fit their MO.

Some people thought it was suspicious that Daschle was targeted, and thought that that pointed towards right-wing nuts. I have a hard time seeing that, for several reasons. First, even right-wing nuts are probably rallying around the government now, and especially immediately after the WTC attack. Second, it now turns out that letters were sent to pretty much everyone in the government including the White House, the Supreme Court, and both houses of Congress. I'm not aware of any right-wing groups that particularly want Bush killed, especially not after Sept. 11.

As for the 'coating'... After following up on this a bit, I think I know where the confusion may be coming from. Yes, it turns out that the special coating is Bentonite, a form of clay. Commonly found in Kitty Litter. So it's nothing exotic, which may be what is prompting many people to say that anyone could use it.

However, from what I've also heard it's not the bentonite that's difficult to get, it's the special processing required to get an extremely fine coating of it on an anthrax spore that takes the real expertise. I heard an expert on CNN talking about this, and he said that the minimum requirement for doing this would be 'several million dollars' in equipment, and someone with a Ph.D in microbiology. And also, they would have to invent the process, which took a long time to develop, unless they managed to learn it from secret government documents. That's why some people are saying that only three countries in the world were capable of it, while others are laughing and saying it's just clay and anyone could do it.

Here's who I think might be responsible, in order of most to least likely:

Bin Laden agents, with assistance from Iraq
Bin Laden agents, using Anthrax stolen from the old USSR
Bin Laden agents, using Anthrax from another source
Another radical Muslim group, like Hizbollah or Hamas
Iraq
Domestic Terrorists unrelated to Islamic Fundamentalists


But hey, most of this is speculation based on inductive reasoning. There's just not a lot of hard evidence to date.

[Collounsbury]

A quick pre-bedtime post.

Originally posted by Sam Stone
If I were a bookie I'd still be laying even money on Iraqi involvement. That doesn't mean involvement in the sense that Hussein said, "Hey, let's get in on the action and commit suicide by launching a bioterror attack against the most powerful nation on earth!", which I agree doesn't make much sense. A more likely scenario for Iraqi involvement would have been for them to slide some Anthrax to Bin Laden well before Sept 11, before they knew just how big a deal this was all going to be. Or perhaps he told them that he planned to use it just to threaten the U.S., or even that he was going to use it against someone else. Or he had convinced them that it could never be traced back to them.


Well, if you were a bookie I'm fairly sure you'd get soaked, but the basic logic of your last two scenarios there don't strike me as fundamentally wrong. Factually, given best knowledge in re what anthrax Iraq had/has, we have something of hiccup as they don't match. Again, that's best public knowledge, although the sources seem sound.


However, I'd be happy to lay pretty good odds that this is NOT an attack by an unrelated domestic terrorist.


I'd be happy to bet you have even odds of geting soaked.


It just doesn't pass my Occam's Razor test.


One of the annoying things about Zenster and you trotting out Occam's Razor is the logical only works with solid information and good assumptions. Given your assumptions are ... discussable I'd pause before using 'occam's razor.' You can get cut that way. GIGO and all that.

To assume that a right-wing group just happened to have a quantity of anthrax available, in weaponized form, and just happened to be ready to mail it out just after the WTC attacks, doesn't strike me as being very likely.


Well, depends on how you cast the facts --I add in advance I myself am not really all that convinced on the right wing angle, but neither do I find your dismissal convincing on its logic or facts-- and assumptions.

If one regards our dear microbiologist and his apparent continued efforts to develop bio-terror, the concept that an extremist supremacist group was preparing its own (and his actions are recent) bio-terror along the blame-it-on-the-brownies line of thought and fell into a window of opportunity does not seem far-fetched. Tim McVeigh followed fairly close on the heels of WTC 1993, and I recall similar initial arguments.

As for the phrase, "weaponized form" don't you think by now that we should all be a bit more careful about using it? It doesn't seem terribly clear exactely what that means or what it actually implies in terms of the level of art required to achieve it. I don't see it supporting any particular theory until more is know in re the requirements.


And it also doesn't fit their MO.


Again, Sam, I don't know where you're getting this from. It appears to fit the MO that our microbiologist was planning pretty darn well.

I have a hard time seeing that, for several reasons. First, even right-wing nuts are probably rallying around the government now, and especially immediately after the WTC attack.


Again, while I am sure 90% of the militia folks did, that does not exclude the extreme of the extreme ZOG is already here and we've got a window to strike out sort. Just as it appears most of the 'Left' rallied -- but the extreme fringe of the fringe siezed the opp to obsess in their particular way, I have no reason to believe that the 'Right' fringe of the fringe has not reacted similarly.


Second, it now turns out that letters were sent to pretty much everyone in the government including the White House, the Supreme Court, and both houses of Congress. I'm not aware of any right-wing groups that particularly want Bush killed, especially not after Sept. 11.


Sam, as I am led to understand by WP and NYT, there is a dearth of letters and a surfiet of anthrax. It is presently, again to my knowledge, unknown how much anthrax there is, how many letters, how much anthrax per letter might be required to cause the traces which are showing up here and there, etc. Cross contamination? False positives? Background positives due to related bacteria?

Before we get it into our heads that North America is drowning in anthrax or even DC and NJ, I suggest a bit of caution -- like in the case of the crop dusters?


As for the 'coating'...

Sam, again, is there confirmation on the coating (and what one is actually refering to when using this term) because I've seen enough contradictory information I'm no longer sure what is speculation by "expterts" magically transformed into fact via repetiion and what is in fact, well, fact.

[Larry Mudd]

Sam Stone: Yes, it turns out that the special coating is Bentonite, a form of clay. Ashcroft has said that the only additive found was silica, and Ari Fleischer has specifically said that there is no bentonite.White House spokesman Ari Fleischer had denied that bentonite was found on the letters, but another senior White House official backed off Fleischer's comments, saying "at this point" there does not appear to be bentonite.

The official said the Ft. Detrick findings represented an "opinionated analysis," that three other labs are conducting tests, and that one of those labs had contradicted the bentonite finding. But, the official added, "tests continue."

Fleischer added that no test or analysis has concluded that bentonite is present in the Daschle anthrax, and "no other finding contradicts or calls into question" that conclusion.

Reading from what he said was a sentence from the report prepared by scientists at Fort Detrick, he told ABCNEWS, "It is interesting to note there is no evidence of aluminum in the sample." Aluminum, Fleischer said, would also be present if bentonite was. (From ABCNews (http://more.abcnews.go.com/sections/us/dailynews/anthrax_investigation011029.html))The article places an awful lot of credence on the assertions of "unnamed sources," contradicting the Attorney General & WHPS. What's up with that?:rolleyes:

[Larry Mudd]

Sam Stone: And also, they would have to invent the process, which took a long time to develop, unless they managed to learn it from secret government documents.It's not all that esoteric, and the technology was was developed in any ultra-secret weapons lab. It's a fairly common process used for distributing pesticides (http://www.wmmg.com/pest/products/pestnewprod.shtml#tridiebulkdust).PT Tri-Die Silica & Pyrethrum Dust was developed with a unique formulation that flows better with less clumping when dispensed out of dusters and provides a light fluffy deposit. These qualities allow the Tri-Die dust to readily adhere to any type of surface and remain active for many months.

[Larry Mudd]

"was was" is Mudd for "wasn't." :o

[Larry Mudd]

Germ Tests Point Away From Iraq (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/nation/specials/attacked/bioterrorism/A8559-2001Oct29.html)[Maj. Gen. John Parker, commanding general of the U.S. Army Medical Research and Materiel Command Center] said that high-energy X-ray studies had found no evidence of aluminum, a key ingredient of bentonite. However, he added, studies did indicate the presence of silica.

Asked if silica by itself could accomplish the same electrostatic goal as bentonite, Parker said he did not know. "We don't know what that motive might be or why it would be there or anything," he told reporters at a briefing.

But Richard Spertzel, who was part of the U.N. team that inspected the Iraqi biological weapons arsenal, said it was his understanding that silica by itself was a good aerosolizing agent.Bentonite, for the record, is an aluminum silicate (http://www.rmcoeh.utah.edu/papers/toxpapers/Bentonite.html). As for the difficulty of the aerosolizing process, it seems pretty straight-forward: The powdered culture is thoroughly blended with finely powdered dessicant. The absense of aluminum means it's not bentonite. My guess is that they used the most convenient dessicant preparation available-- hydrated magnesium silicate, finely milled to 30 micron grains. Shocklingly, there are no controls in place on the sale this vital precursor to Biological Agents, a dessicant powder fine enough to leak through a sealed paper envelope, (the pores of which are about 100 microns wide.) (It's talcum powder.)

[squeegee]

Just a random thought:

Perhaps some of the confusion on 'weapons grade' and 'aerosolizing agents' etc. comes from the fact that the U.S. shut down it's biological weapons programs several decades ago. I personally consider this a Good Thing, but perhaps the US is now suffering locally from a lack expertise in this area: most or all of the scientists studying the anthrax samples have no expertise in biological weapons, and have no idea what they're looking for, and hence all the conflicting reports we're seeing about the structure and pedigree of the anthrax samples.

[GIGObuster]

Originally posted by squeegee
Just a random thought:

Perhaps some of the confusion on 'weapons grade' and 'aerosolizing agents' etc. comes from the fact that the U.S. shut down it's biological weapons programs several decades ago. I personally consider this a Good Thing, but perhaps the US is now suffering locally from a lack expertise in this area: most or all of the scientists studying the anthrax samples have no expertise in biological weapons, and have no idea what they're looking for, and hence all the conflicting reports we're seeing about the structure and pedigree of the anthrax samples.
That is not quite right:
http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?threadid=85527
And yes it is in Nevada were the “secret” research was going on. If you think about it, it is harder to make vaccines if one does not have the desease at hand to test them.

[paranoid theory]
FWIW finding bentonite could not have condemned Iraq automatically:
http://www.bentonite.com
The major supplier of the stuff is Halliburton (name sounds familiar). It could be that the local terrorists needed only one extremist (on the inside?) to furnish them the materials.
The bentonite angle has been dropped just like the jet fuel angle in the McVeigh case. I guess it would be embarrassing to find out how it was that he got his hands on the fuel. Likewise, it could ruffle some big feathers if we find out that some materials for the current attacks might have come from local sources. I am not saying that the organizations and companies that might be involved are responsible, only that hate groups, who dislike the government to death, could have secret members located in a position that has access to the stuff. [/paranoid theory]

OTHA I think it is really silly to underestimate the capabilities of the local terrorists, Harry Mudd and others have already pointed to the lengths they are willing to go to incite chaos (or to make it worse).

The best possibility IMO is that the local terrorists put together the packages, with the unwilling help of a local company or organization.

[Shirley Ujest]

Originally posted by Phlosphr
Lucwarm
The handwriting does seem somewhat foreign

Just out of curiosity do you know what a terrorist's handwritng looks like?

I think I understand Phlospr's gist. I think s/he means the handwritting does not look like someone from the english speaking world wrote.

Give me some lattitude here. My inlaws are from Germay and Been here over 36 years. The style of ABC's and how they are written over in Germany when they were young ( and could still be written that way for all I know) is ...uh...very Germanic (well, duh) Heavy styling on caplitazations and hard for the uninitiated to read.

To this day, after a dozen years of knowing them, it is virutally impossible for me to read an entire note from them without asking my husband to decipher.

Someone from a cyrllic alphabet world would have a distintive style of writing when writing english, so would anyone whose natural language is arabic, farsi or martian.

BACK to OP: From what I gathered from one news story about the letters, it looked as if the lettering was done in block style writing, " one of the hardest kinds of writing styles to trace" said the talking head on tv.

Which made me roll my eyes and think of the freebie info the moron just gave to all the copy cats out there.

[pennylane]

Apparently, anthrax spores have also been found in letters sent to various offices of the Jang newspaper in Pakistan. The Jang is the largest Urdu-language newspaper in the country and therefore caters to a relatively conservative audience. It is not pro-U.S. (The English-language newspapers are seen as more "Western" and liberal.) These incidents have me baffled. It appears to me that the only motive anyone could have for choosing to target Jang is to get the most possible attention. But how is that a motive in itself?

The letter sent to the Quetta office merely said, "Anthrax gift for you and your staff".

I've also heard reports that an international bank and a computer firm in Karachi have received letters containing anthrax spores, and that a bank executive has actually contracted the disease (this latter unconfirmed by BBC).

Here's a link:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/world/south_asia/newsid_1633000/1633619.stm

[Spoke]

What exactly is the presence of bentonite supposed to prove? It's a common substance, easily obtainable, with many legitimate uses. (I won't elaborate on those uses, or where to get the stuff. Why give pointers to terrorists?)