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buddy1
10-27-2001, 03:21 PM
I ask the question because I appear to have been very lucky (statistically speaking) so far with my life> Consider these facts: I am 40 years old (about 50% of my life span is over), and nothing really bad has happened to me. For example:
-I have never had cancer, heart disease, arthritis.
-I have never been in a car accident (despite logging 20K miles/year.)
-I have never been a victim of a crime(I have not been murdered, assaulted, or robbed). My home has never been burglerized.
I feel that the law of averages is about to catch up to me at last-it seems that being an "average" American, a lot of awful stuff is going to start happening to me! Can anybody give me some reassurance, or should I take precautions?

Manduck
10-27-2001, 03:27 PM
The law of averages doesn't work, so don't worry, being lucky so far doesn't make you more likely to be unlucky in the future

ultrafilter
10-27-2001, 03:32 PM
Originally posted by Manduck
The law of averages doesn't work, so don't worry, being lucky so far doesn't make you more likely to be unlucky in the future

Assuming that the law of averages is "On average, average things will happen to you", it does hold. However, your luck in the future is independent of your luck in the past. So don't sweat it.

Toaster
10-27-2001, 04:18 PM
Originally posted by buddy1
(I have not been murdered, assaulted, or robbed)
I'm glad you were never murdered.

Ariadne
10-27-2001, 04:30 PM
Hmm, you're forty and you're asking questions like these. I foresee a red sports car and a blonde befalling you.

You sound like you lock your doors at night, drive carefully, eat and exercise as much as you should, live in a nice town, and have been lucky. As long as you keep doing those things, and your luck holds, there's no reason you shouldn't live a long and pleasant life (though your health might get a bit worse after 60). Think about it, some people live in crime-ridden areas, take drugs, and have been in many accidents. No one expects them to win the lottery tomorrow to balance things out.

I wasn't quite kidding in my first paragraph. You do seem like you're wishing for excitement. Please remember how many people wish for a comfortable, safe, settled life, and that it's not something you want to throw away.

Mangetout
10-27-2001, 05:06 PM
Originally posted by buddy1
...I have not been murdered...[Python]
I have!
[Python]

fandango
10-27-2001, 05:20 PM
Originally posted by Toaster
Originally posted by buddy1
(I have not been murdered, assaulted, or robbed)
I'm glad you were never murdered.


I was murdered once...Boy, I never want to go through that again!

SCSimmons
10-27-2001, 07:27 PM
You should count your lucky stars, Fandango. I get murdered almost every stinkin' day!! Twice, some days! It's really starting to frost my shorts!

pesch
10-27-2001, 07:32 PM
Me: Every day?

SCSimmons: Yes!

Me: You were lucky!

Seriously, don't worry about it. If you do, you will get a horrible cancer that will eat your spleen and turn you into a dribbling monomaniac with flatulence.

See? It's simple.

Sycorax
10-27-2001, 07:55 PM
pesch is right. If you think it's time for you to be unlucky, you probably will be. (Self-fulfilling prophesy).
Get on with living and stop worrying about it.

Zenster
10-27-2001, 08:09 PM
Originally posted by SCSimmons
You should count your lucky stars, Fandango. I get murdered almost every stinkin' day!! Twice, some days! It's really starting to frost my shorts! I've told you a million times not to exaggerate!

mmmiiikkkeee
10-27-2001, 08:36 PM
You know where they get a lot of those "the average person will have this happen to them and has these odds of that happening" right? Count up all the bad things and how many times they've happened, divide it by how many people there are, and voila - your life's predictions all on a 3X5 card... they have zero power of influence of course. Remember your chances of getting attacked by a shark? Those odds weren't based on anything you ever did; they're based on all the people who actually go in the water with sharks getting bit. If you never go to the ocean or a spot where there are sharks, you will NEVER get attacked by one. In my family, we all drive very carefully... not one accident among our cumulative... jeeze, over 150 years of driving. Ask a family of super-aggresive alcoholics the same question, they'll swear you're due for an accident every 6 months. What happens to you is mostly dependent on you, not some poll in the newspaper. And no, you don't build up bad luck like interest if you've been doing good for 40 years.

Chas.E
10-27-2001, 10:04 PM
I once saw a documentary series, one film was "The Male Health Risk" and the other for women of course. It charted the typical life cycle and the various risks in each phase of life, it was most fascinating. It charts everything from newborn & infant mortality, through the teen years (accidental death is the predominate killer) then on to 20s and 30s (heart attack & various cardiovascular deaths becoming predominate) then 40s and 50s (cardio, cancer) etc etc. It was documented all in excruciating detail, and in fact I made a few lifestyle changes after seeing it. Boy I wish I could find a tape of that show.
Anyway, the gist of the program was that if you don't kill yourself in a car crash in your teen years, you'll survive into middle age and eventually succumb to the typical degenerative ailments of old age, so keep in good shape from your youth and you'll live a healthier old age..

choosybeggar
10-27-2001, 11:11 PM
Originally posted by buddy1

-I have never had cancer, heart disease, arthritis.

Don't mean to burst yer bubble, bub, but the incidences of cancer, heart disease, and arthritis all increase dramatically with advancing age.

Have a nice day :)

BobT
10-27-2001, 11:15 PM
I hate to break the bad news to you buddy1, but you're going to die.

I have no idea when, but you will. Trust me on this one.

I would bet on your passing to occur sometime between the years 2001 and 2061. After 2061, I think you're living on borrowed time.

NaSultainne
10-27-2001, 11:22 PM
Originally posted by mmmiiikkkeee
If you never go to the ocean or a spot where there are sharks, you will NEVER get attacked by one.

Uhh, don't look now, but someone's knocking on your door...











LandShark!

buddy1
10-30-2001, 06:03 PM
Thanks for the reassurances-I mean to live until 2071, at least. i figure that I am doing all the right things..but the statistics still bother me...I read that 30% of Americans will be the victimes of crime in any given year, so I get worried. Of course, I could decrease my chances of being a victim (of a crime) to zero..but would this be cost-effective?Another one..I have heard that most car accidents happen between 10:00 PM Saturday and 6:00 AM Sunday-will staying off the roads in those hours dramatically lower my chances of an accident?
Help me folks!-I'm just an ordinary human trying to stave off the Grim Reaper for as long as possible!

Scarlett67
10-30-2001, 06:14 PM
Ever see The Apartment?

Miss Kubelik: I never catch colds.
Mr. Baxter: Really! <sniffling>. . . Say, did you know that the average American has two and a half colds per year?
Miss K: Well, that makes me feel just terrible!
Mr. B: How's that?
Miss K: Well, for the figures to come out right, if I have no colds a year, then some poor slob must have five colds a year.
Mr. B: (ruefully) Yeah . . . it's me!

So don't worry, buddy1, some poor slob is covering you.

dougie_monty
10-30-2001, 06:26 PM
I once read in a book of humor about someone who saw statistics saying "One in twelve will die of heart disease"; "One in nineteen will die of cancer"; "One in forty will die in an accident." The curmudgeon wrote, "One in one will die. Period." :p
In the German Berlitz self-teacher is a conversation between two men, given in German and English. One man whose wife doesn't like him to fly said she "reads about airplane crashes all the time and doesn't want me to put my life at risk."
..."Where do most people die?"
"In bed, naturally."
"But you never worry about climbing into bed each night."
"That is a good example; I'll have to tell my wife."
None of us get out of this world alive...

Sycorax
10-30-2001, 06:31 PM
#1 - I'm starting to think you're putting us on - you're letting stats bother you?
#2 - If you're truly concerned, stop reading whatever it is you're reading from which you glean these spurious stats
#3 - as you would learn in Economics 101, one can come up with stats to mean whatever one wants them to.
#4 - as for the one about driving between 10 pm Sat and 6 am Sunday - well, duh! That's when the drunks are out on the streets. If you're driving during that time, you just have to be extra careful and keep an eye out for them. Now stop reading stats and go read a mystery novel or something. Jeez.