UK snap general election 14 October?
 

Sky News just reported that Boris Johnson will fall a snap general election for 14 October should Parliament block no-deal Brexit this week which seems likely. This could get real interesting. I assume Boris thinks that the Tories will still win with a larger majority, but what does the Brexit party do? And, Labour would win an absolute landslide if they had any other leader besides Jeremy Corbyn.

Should be a very interesting week in UK politics!

For those of us having a hard time keeping score: Who (parties or prominent individuals) are opposed to Brexit, and what are their current numbers? Is there anyone who might plausibly get into power and say "Nope, sorry, Brexit's off, if you want it back, then negotiate a deal first"?

I saw something that mentioned the "reaction of the Scots." I guess that means that the people of Scotland are given to feel differently than the people of England about Brexit, and they either strongly agree of strongly disagree with the current flow of events.

And while I understand that Boris Johnson can suspend Parliament (with the Queen's permission,) can't the House of Commons rise up in a huff and call itself back into session if enough members want to?

It's my understanding that Scotland is pretty strongly against Brexit, and that in fact the recent very close vote on Scottish independence was premised on the assumption that the UK would remain in the EU. So if Brexit does go through, we could see that question being raised again. There might also be some grumblings from Northern Ireland (one of the complications of Brexit would be that there'd now be an EU/non-EU boundary down the middle of the island, which could re-ignite the Troubles), but I haven't heard as much about that.

Very much so - probably the most hostile to Brexit part of the UK.

That was the working assumption at the time. It's a bit more complex than that, because if Scotland had voted for independence it's relationship to the EU was not exactly well-defined.

Oh yes.

It's been discussed in really quite some detail in really quite a few of the myriad Brexit threads on here.

Nigel Farage leader of the"Brexit party" has promised to support johnson in a collation should the tories not get a majority

Support with what? The Brexit Party are unlikely to have any MPs - at best they'll be split the Brexiteer vote.

I hope all the canapés will be sourced from non-EU companies.

Away with your filthy Frenchisms.

Don't let's start the "crudite" argument again.

Just to be clear, the issue in a general election will not be whether Brexit should happen or not; it's whether Brexit should happen on 31 October, without a deal between the UK and the EU as to the terms of Brexit. Ranged up on the "no" side will be not only those who oppose Brexit but also those who favour Brexit, but believe that it should or must be implemented with a negotiated exit deal.

On that basis:

- The Brexit Party strongly favours no-deal Brexit.

- The Tory party leadership either favours no-deal Brexit, or is pursuing a policy which is practically certain to result in no-deal Brexit and (a) is happy with that outcome, or (b) deludes itself that that outcome is not practically certain. The Tory parliamentary party contains a range of opinion, but party loyalty/the desire for advancement/the fear of punishment means most of them will support the party leadership. But seems likely that enough will rebel against the party leadership to deprive the government of its majority (in the present parliament; obvs the numbers will be different after an election).

- The Labour party is deeply divided and deeply confused. The bulk of the parliamentary party, and the bulk of the party membership, oppose Brexit; the party leadership is thought to favour it, but won't say so. The official line is that the Brexit referendum result must be respected and the UK must leave, but not with a no-deal Brexit and not with any kind of deal that the Tories are likely to negotiate. Policy is that the implementation of Brexit should be in the hands of a Labour government, so Brexit should be deferred until after an election, and any deal negotiated then shoujld be submitted to the people for ratification in a referendum.

- The Liberal Democrats, the Scottish Nationalists, Plaid Cymru, oppose Brexit.

- The Democratic Unionist Party supports the Tory government but is scared shitless of the electoral consequences for themselves, should a no-deal Brexit happen. Publc opinion in Northern Ireland opposes Brexit, and strongly opposes a no-deal Brexit, which will be disastrous for NI, socially, economically and politically. It is ironic that a no-deal Brexit is threatened largely because Westminister refuses to accept a draft deal which would afford special treatment for NI, keeping it close to the EU and so mitigating the adverse consequences of Brexit, despite the fact that the deal is widely popular in NI.

- Sinn Fein opposes Brexit for Northern Ireland; does not care what Great Britain does; considers that it has no business to care about that. But as Sinn Fein does not take its seats in the Westminister parliament their views have little influence.

That's a pretty good description. Except I'd say that both the Tories and Labour are deeply divided. At least Labour offloaded some of its more confused people to... erm... Change UK? Is that their name now? But that have a name of some sort.

Tories have generally been better at being united than divided but Boris is really divisive and there hasn't been a single vote in parliament to see whether his own MPs support him, so it's all up in the air.

And that's if it happens. If it happens on the date it's supposed to, whoever wins will have to deal with a no-deal Brexit. Won't they? That's what it looks like. But would the EU really make us agree to a no-deal that wasn't actually agreed upon by the government in situ after... Oh, I give up.

Good God, it's so ridiculous. It's like living in the Sims with someone who doesn't know how to play Government.

"The Labour Party is Deeply Divided and Deeply Confused"

I tend to think this is accurate, but it wouldn't look good on the cover of the Manifesto now, would it?

Question: when are new MPs sworn in after an election?

The Queen's Speech is usually two to three weeks after a GE, and MPs get sworn in as soon as Parliament restarts. I'm sure this timescale can be considerably shortened. I'm sure they've done a State Opening-lite before, maybe back when Her Maj was heavily pregnant.

Quite an important point here: Johnson cannot unilaterally call an election. He will need the consent of Parliament. This is a relatively new feature of UK politics: prior to the Fixed Term Parliament Act of 2011, Prime Ministers could call elections as they saw fit. Now, if a PM wants an election they have to ask Parliament to vote for one. This vote has to be passed by an absolute 2/3rds majority of the Commons - 434 in favour. The current government has 311 Tory MPs and 10 DUP MPs. So there will only be an election on that date if the other parties support it.

In general, this wouldn't matter! Opposition parties want to become governing parties, so tend to welcome elections. Moreover, they really don't want to be seen as running scared of an election, so even if they're behind in the polls they're unlikely to vote to keep the government in government. However, these are not normal times. Johnson's government are at great risk of being defeated by Parliament over the issue of No Deal. The anti-No Deal parties have prepared a Bill which would prevent No Deal by the 31st of October and they intend to bring it to the House this week. They likely have the votes, as there are perhaps as many as 20 Tory MPs who have committed to voting against their own party on this matter. Calling an election is a means not only of getting a new Parliament, but of cutting this one short.

As advertised, the election Johnson favours would take place by 14th Oct leaving new Parliament barely enough time to have a say on the deal with the EU that apparently the government will conclude by 17th October. BUT - no one trusts Boris. Still less does anyone trust Dominic Cummings, his chief of staff. The fear is that having secured agreement for an election, these chancers would use the PM's perogative powers to move the date to some point in November, thus practically guaranteeing No Deal. So: if you are an anti-No Deal MP, it is by no means obviously in your best interests to vote for an election. It is much more in your interest to keep Parliament in session while you pass your anti-No Deal bill.

In short, while there is doubtless an election in the near future there is a very good chance that Johnson won't get the one he's asking for.

Results of an analysis of the latest poll:

In a snap election, the projected results are:

Conservatives -6 seats
Labour -20.
Lib-Dems +9
SNP +17.

So a hung parliament, with opposition parties collectively able to outvote the Tories.

Labour appears to be against an election.

This is a disaster all round.

Only until Johnson has been forced to seek an extension. They can't trust him not to change the date of the election - which is within the PMs prerogative power - to post 31st October otherwise.

I don't understand that poll completely, as the numbers don't jibe with the numbers on the wiki page on Commons membership. It can't be ignoring the parties that aren't in the list, because it has an entry for "other" as "1" projected seat even though there are 21 members who do not belong to the parties listed in the polls when you discount Sinn Fein. (When I saw the poll I had to check to see if Change UK had somehow dissolved.)

But the projected results are still pretty clear considering the projected loss of 6 and a majority of one.

They can't, in practice, force Johnson to seek an extension, as the only threat they have against him is a no confidence vote - and if they are unwilling to call an election, that is an empty threat.

Add to that the fact that the EU is unlikely to grant an extension and the whole thing is pointless.

Labour knows there's no good way to leave the EU, but doesn't have the will and/or the balls to say so, and would rather us crash out under Johnson so they have someone else to blame when they're in power, than actually try to fix the situation.

The EU might potentially grant an extension if there's an election in the offing - but the UK would have to ask for it, and Boris ain't doing that.

European Union (Withdrawal) (No. 6) Bill 2019 - the one which will be debated on Wednesday if today's SO24 application is granted and voted for - aims to do just that. (I think - this is all getting complicated :D )

As far as I can tell, there's no mechanism in the bill that actually forces Johnson to make the request to the EU, nor that sanctions him if he doesn't. He's said that he won't make the request, and as far as I know the only response Parliament has to that is a confidence vote.

I'd love to be wrong about this, though.

This gets us into murky waters. The text of the bill says that unless Parliament approves a deal, or No Deal, then "The Prime Minister must [go through the process of requesting an extension of the EU]."

What does that "must" mean in practice? This isn't a criminal law creating an offence to fail to request an extension. This is administrative law (I think) setting out the obligations of a public authority. I'm not sure what penalties apply to public authorities who fail to fulfill their legal duties, or what the process is for establishing that they have and that such penalties should apply. But I'm sure they exist.

However, it seems this process can only be retroactive - in order to show that the government had failed to comply with this, you would have to show that no extension had been requested. At what point can you say that? Before the 31st of Oct? There's no deadline in the bill to say by when the extension should be requested, which is starting to feel like an oversight. If Johnson simply decides not to request the extension he would be in breach of the law and would be liable for whatever penalties - but the deadline would have passed by the time his argument that he was simply waiting for the opportune moment could be shown to be false.

So, if the bill passes, Johnson might simply refuse to obey it, as threatened. At some point - say 30th Oct - a case might be brought to say that he was acting unlawfully by not making the request. Could a court force the PM to write the letter? If he refused, could it authorise some other figure to write the letter in his name? The logic of the bill is that this is exactly what should happen, following due process, but these seem like big steps.

Politically speaking, Boris probably wouldn't defy Parliament because if he did he would take sole responsibility for No Deal and taking responsibility isn't his bag. But if he did decide to defy Parliament some pretty consequential decisions would have to be made.

A confidence vote would kick him out, but owing to the FTPA it likely wouldn't (assuming that Parliament is asked to vote on a deal after Oct 17th) allow enough time for a new PM to emerge.

Holy fuck you guys.

Yep, the direction of much of the developed world for the next decade or so depends on Boris being a reasonable person.

Phillip Lee resigns from the Conservative Party to join the Lib Dems, Boris no longer has a working majority in Parliament.

https://twitter.com/drphillipleemp/s...103864832?s=21
I think this year has had the most party changes that I’ve ever seen in UK politics.

IMO Labour is long overdue for a proper leadership challenge. I would have thought they'd reached that particular tipping point long ago, but they flounder on.

Much as I dislike Corbyn, now is not really the time for that.

Is anyone running (or can anyone run) on a platform of no Brexit, or postponing Brexit for a new referendum? If not, why not? It seems like there would be a significant electorate in favor of this.

An new referendum has been the Lib Dem's position for a while now, and on some days Corbyn seems to suggest he might be OK with that, depending on which way the wind is blowing.

The problem with that is what question should be asked on a potential referendum.

Yes, the LibDems and the SNP. But the SNP is only in Scotland and the LibDems are still tarnished by making a deal with the devil back in 2010.

Thanks!

The Green Party is also strongly opposed to Brexit. Although they have only one MP, they are a legitimate political party in the UK unlike the USA greens which exist just to ratfuck Democrats. The Greens did quite well back in May in the local elections.

Boris could ask the Queen to refuse consent to the Bill.
Or assent if it passes.

Royal assent hasn't been refused to a bill in over 300 yeard.

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk

Boris Johnson just said he’s triggering the Fixed Term Parliament Act.

Oh, sure, there are plenty of people who want Brexit-with-a-deal. But it should be abundantly clear to everyone now that, at this point, the only possible way to get that is to repeal the Article 50, take your time negotiating a deal, and only then re-invoke Article 50.

Which means, of course, that that's not going to happen.

The EU isn't making anyone do anything. They're letting you shoot yourself in the foot. But the loading of the gun, the aiming of it at the foot, and the pulling of the trigger are all being done by the Brits.

Which needs 2/3 parliamentary approval. The main opposition leaders all said in the chamber tonight that they insist that tomorrows Bill be implemented first. (Actually it sounded like that had all been co-ordinated beforehand)

I know the EU isn't forcing us to agree to anything. The EU is holding its head in its hands while we tie our hands behind our backs while saying they did it.

Yes. And it was in a situation like this, it was the Government of the day that advised the Queen to refuse assent.

Parliament passes Act over BoJo's wishes.
BoJo advises HM to refuse assent.

Interesting times.

Roundabout way of saying they're opposed to Brexit without offending anyone. Very British. They can't get a Brexit deal because they can't force the EU to make said deal, they can't get any deal they do make past a referendum unless the polls are completely delusional, and if they try to charge forwards half-a-league into a No-Deal Brexit they've just committed suicide and relegated themselves to the Outer Darkness.

Oh, they'll have views if the Good Friday Agreement is breached. Loud views. All over Whitehall.

I wonder if there are some in the British estabalishment who wish they had never heard of Ireland.
Everytime the seem to have handled the damn question, it arises. Again.
1798, 1916, 1922, 1968....2019.

No doubt in 2250, the one world government will fall due to the Irish question.

If there is an election, I wonder what will happen in Northern Ireland given that NI has a remain majority. Are the DUP *that* popular? Or will they lose seats to the more moderate unionist parties? Will the nationalist parties make gains against Sinn Fein when people decide that, actually, they'd rather like their MPs to vote in Parliament?

I'll admit to be commenting from a position of ignorance here, but I'm pretty sure the Sinn-Fein-not-voting thing has been baked in for decades, and this isn't likely to change unless Sinn Fein themselves change it.

DUrP are the party of the religious troglodyte voters, of which NI has many. I don't know what the relationship between the various Unionist parties is; if they're in active contention the others could certainly lay the blame for the status quo at the DUrP's feet but will only do so if they are sure that the voters won't defect to nationalist parties instead (which is unlikely for DurP voters, admittedly).

Right. But there are other nationalist parties in NI. Alliance and SDLP had MPs not such a long time ago. Why aren't they doing better now?

Boris called for an election.

Other MP's told him to stuff it.

And the fun continues....

There was a similar situation in Ontario back in the 1890s. There was a back-bench revolt that passed a bill against the Government's wishes. Premier Mowst advised the Lt Gov to refuse Assent. The Lt Gov followed that advice.

The DUP are not especially popular. In the UK General Election of 2017 they secured 36% of the NI vote, an all-time high for them. However in the Assembly elections the same year, they got 28%. More recently, in the European Parliament elections earlier this year they secured 22%. An opinion poll published last month put them on 25%.

As for the Nationalist vote,you talk about "when people decide that, actually, they'd rather like their MPs to vote in Parliament" as though people making that decision were a given. It is not. At the 2017 General Election (where they would not be taking their seats) Sinn Fein won 29% of the NI vote ; at the 2017 Assembly elections (where they would), 28%; at the 2019 European Parliament elections (where they would), 22%; in last month's opinion poll (for a future General Election, where they would not be taking their seats), 26%.

They literally are combing the dungeons of Whitehall looking for a precedent....they doubtless are aware of every single letter on this subject.