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-   -   The 2020 Presidential election betting thread. (https://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=874383)

Quartz 04-21-2019 11:49 AM

The 2020 Presidential election betting thread.
 
Might as well start it now.

I've just placed £10 on Pete Buttigieg at 10/1.

septimus 04-21-2019 11:55 AM

I'll repeat my offer to moderate a Karachi Auction in Thread Games. Let SDMB players set the book on 2020 outcomes (using pretend money).

Quartz 04-21-2019 12:08 PM

I'll have to look that up, but it sounds fun. Let's keep this thread for real bets by people prepared to put their money where their mouths are.

Velocity 04-21-2019 12:43 PM

I think betting on US elections is illegal for American Dopers (assuming you mean real money on real websites/casinos.) Can we participate with some fake currency?

Quartz 04-21-2019 12:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Velocity (Post 21601425)
I think betting on US elections is illegal for American Dopers (assuming you mean real money on real websites/casinos.) Can we participate with some fake currency?

This site says that it used to be mostly illegal but now is up to individual states.

Quote:

However, in May of 2018, the U.S. Supreme Court shut down PASPA, ruling the federal restriction of legalized sports betting unconstitutional. Legalization and legislation is now determined at a state level, meaning it will be up to each individual state to decide whether or not to allow its residents to engage in sports betting, including political events.

KarlGauss 04-21-2019 02:10 PM

Quote:

However, in May of 2018, the U.S. Supreme Court shut down PASPA, ruling the federal restriction of legalized sports betting unconstitutional. Legalization and legislation is now determined at a state level, meaning it will be up to each individual state to decide whether or not to allow its residents to engage in sports betting, including political events.
Are federal elections really considered a sport?

Jonathan Chance 04-21-2019 09:30 PM

More importantly, such continues to be illegal in the state of Illinois where the Straight Dope is based.

Bet quatloos. Bet for honor. I think we'd appreciate no cash wagers here on the Straight Dope Message Board concerning sports or the upcoming presidential election.

snoe 04-21-2019 10:03 PM

Curious: are prediction markets like PredictIt legal in Illinois? Having trouble finding a straight answer online.

Jonathan Chance 04-21-2019 10:27 PM

The Moderator Speaks
 
That is...an open question.

But it's long been policy here that things that are illegal in the USA and the state of Illinois make ownership nervous. Hence discussions of election outcomes via Predictit are fine. Actual betting here would not be.

Nonetheless, I've shared it on the mod loop. If there are any developments I'll share it here. Until that time, keep the cash out of it.

Quartz 04-22-2019 05:18 AM

Just a quick check: you're happy with we non-Merkins discussing placed bets, right?

Mr Shine 04-22-2019 05:27 AM

I've bet £500 on "Anybody except Trump" to win £379

Jonathan Chance 04-22-2019 06:35 AM

The Moderator Speaks
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Quartz (Post 21602296)
Just a quick check: you're happy with we non-Merkins discussing placed bets, right?

Sort of. Ruling come through overnight. No cash wagers on the Straight Dope.

I'm going to interpret that as meaning you can discuss your own wagers outside the dope but you cannot bet cash with other Dopers regardless of the two party's location.

I'm going to leave this thread open given the above ruling. But let's try to keep within the guidelines, please.

Bullitt 04-22-2019 07:15 AM

I’ll take Trump and I’ll bet 500 quatloos.

Too bad we can’t bet real cash money.

Mr Shine 04-22-2019 07:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bullitt (Post 21602346)
Iíll take Trump and Iíll bet 500 quatloos.

Too bad we canít bet real cash money.

Quatloos don't exist and you didn't bet any. If it's illegal for you to gamble and/or you don't have the inclination to do so then too bad for you but leave this thread for people who put real bets down with real money.

snoe 04-22-2019 05:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jonathan Chance (Post 21602323)
I'm going to interpret that as meaning you can discuss your own wagers outside the dope but you cannot bet cash with other Dopers regardless of the two party's location.

Okay, hereís my opposite of a humblebrag: I bought Buttegieg shares on Predictit at 5 cents when I first heard him give an interview, then sold them at 10-12 cents. Heís at 19 cents now. Shoulda hung on to them a bit longer. (I donít think heíll get the nom, but I correctly predicted heíd get a bunch of attention.)

Bullitt 04-23-2019 12:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr Shine (Post 21602366)
Quatloos don't exist and you didn't bet any. If it's illegal for you to gamble and/or you don't have the inclination to do so then too bad for you but leave this thread for people who put real bets down with real money.

Quatloos exist for us Trekkies. Okay then, 750 quatloos on Trump. I’ll be back when he wins.

Thing Fish 04-23-2019 03:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by septimus (Post 21601384)
I'll repeat my offer to moderate a Karachi Auction in Thread Games. Let SDMB players set the book on 2020 outcomes (using pretend money).

The Karachi Auction thing made my head spin. Maybe we could do a game where everyone starts with like 1000 quatloos and can bet them on the Predictit line at any given time. So you could spread your bets around on longshots early in the process, or hold off betting until the outcomes are more predictable (but the payoffs accordingly lower).

Thing Fish 04-23-2019 03:38 AM

Anyway, someone said in another thread that Predictit has close to 50-50 odds on Trump being re-elected. Given the chance, I would consider betting serious money on No.

Mr Shine 04-23-2019 06:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bullitt (Post 21603901)
Quatloos exist for us Trekkies. Okay then, 750 quatloos on Trump. Iíll be back when he wins.

:rolleyes:

Bullitt 04-23-2019 06:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr Shine (Post 21604059)
:rolleyes:

Yeah yeah I know he is highly unpopular here.

Mr Shine 04-23-2019 06:25 AM

You miss the point: the :rolleyes: was for you. Trying to claim you're betting "qatloos" for the second time in a thread that was already clearly stated to be talking about real bets you actually placed with real money. I'm not sure why the concept is so hard for you.

Bullitt 04-23-2019 06:29 AM

Yes I know and I’m ignoring that. It’s not hard at all because this is not a thread about real bets, per the mods. I don’t know why that concept is so hard for you.

Anyway I wish I could bet real money on this here.

Mr Shine 04-23-2019 06:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Quartz (Post 21601395)
Let's keep this thread for real bets by people prepared to put their money where their mouths are.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jonathan Chance (Post 21602323)
I'm going to interpret that as meaning you can discuss your own wagers outside the dope


This thread is for people who actually placed bets, not those waffling on about quatloos.

Bullitt 04-23-2019 07:16 AM

You conveniently missed a few quotes.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jonathan Chance (Post 21602323)
No cash wagers on the Straight Dope.

Quote:

you cannot bet cash with other Dopers regardless of the two party's location.
Quote:

I'm going to leave this thread open given the above ruling. But let's try to keep within the guidelines, please.
Itís not that difficult to understand. Really.

Mr Shine 04-23-2019 07:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bullitt (Post 21604100)


Itís not that difficult to understand. Really.

No, it really isn't.

Mr Shine 04-23-2019 07:36 AM

But to make it clear

No cash wagers on the Straight Dope.

you cannot bet cash with other Dopers regardless of the two party's location.

Nothing about not talking about betting cash, which is the point of this thread.

dalej42 04-23-2019 01:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Quartz (Post 21601379)
Might as well start it now.



I've just placed £10 on Pete Buttigieg at 10/1.



I’m going to be in the UK next week. Where can I place a similar bet? Is it online only or can I walk into a Ladbrokes or similar betting shop?

Mr Shine 04-23-2019 02:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dalej42 (Post 21604815)
Iím going to be in the UK next week. Where can I place a similar bet? Is it online only or can I walk into a Ladbrokes or similar betting shop?

You can certainly place politics bets in the physical bookies, and link it to your account if you have one. I'm not sure how you would conveniently get your money though if you don't have an account, unless you were going back to UK in Nov 2020

That Don Guy 04-24-2019 02:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KarlGauss (Post 21601512)
Are federal elections really considered a sport?

It was up to interpretation as to whether or not the law applied just to sports.

Note that Nevada still specifically outlaws its casinos/sports books from taking bets on elections.

Jonathan Chance 04-24-2019 08:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr Shine (Post 21604111)
But to make it clear

No cash wagers on the Straight Dope.

you cannot bet cash with other Dopers regardless of the two party's location.

Nothing about not talking about betting cash, which is the point of this thread.

The point of the thread is election betting. Nothing says cash in the OP. The only restriction placed upon posters is to not bet cash with each other. We're not in the position of being a clearinghouse for election wagering nor do we want to be.

But if someone wants to bet quatloos, points toward heaven or whatever that's as valid as anything else.

Thing Fish 04-25-2019 01:48 AM

I’d guesstimate current odds as like

Trump 2-1
Biden, Harris 6-1
Bernie 8-1
Beto, Warren, Mayor Pete 10-1
Everyone else at least 20-1

So is there anywhere I can get significantly better odds than those on any of the candidates?

octopus 04-25-2019 02:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jonathan Chance (Post 21607858)
The point of the thread is election betting. Nothing says cash in the OP. The only restriction placed upon posters is to not bet cash with each other. We're not in the position of being a clearinghouse for election wagering nor do we want to be.

But if someone wants to bet quatloos, points toward heaven or whatever that's as valid as anything else.

Avatar bets is where itís at.

Quartz 04-25-2019 04:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thing Fish (Post 21608203)
Iíd guesstimate current odds as like

Trump 2-1

Ladbrokes have Trump at 5/4, Sanders at 6/1, Biden at 8/1, Harris and Buttigieg at 10/1, Beto at 20/1, and Warren at 33/1.

penultima thule 04-25-2019 10:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thing Fish (Post 21608203)
Iíd guesstimate current odds as like

Trump 2-1
Biden, Harris 6-1
Bernie 8-1
Beto, Warren, Mayor Pete 10-1
Everyone else at least 20-1

So is there anywhere I can get significantly better odds than those on any of the candidates?

Current odds being offered by William Hill:

Trump. 5/4
Sanders 6/1
Biden. 8/1
Harris. 8/1
Buttigieg 8/1
OíRourke 10/1

Plenty of arbitrage options there


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