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Old 01-26-2011, 04:48 PM
Mince Mince is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2006
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Quote:
Originally Posted by furt View Post
No, they're not. They're priceless at the end of some games-- and in fact very few.

Any given football game is more likely to wind up 27-17 than it is 31-30, and the go-ahead score is much more likely to be scored in the first half than it is in the last two minutes. Even in games that do go down to the wire, usually only one team needs the timeouts, and the other wants the clock running.

The last minute nail-biters are memorable, but they are the exception.
There are many more valuable conditions that occur much more frequently in which a time-out is more valuable than losing 5 yards. Confusion on a critical play (short and goal; a field goal where 5 yards will put you out of range); stopping the clock when it is 31-30 late; having the ability to challenge a crucial play--remember, no timeout, no challenge. Losing 5 yards in these situations are likely to immediately cost you points. Certainly it's much more likely to lose you points than losing 5 yards on 3rd and 8 (low conversion chance) from your own 27 early in the 3rd quarter. Even if they do convert, there is still only a small chance they will score after the conversion. In the above scenarios, losing 5 yards has an immediate chance to lose you points, or increase the chance that you might not score or score the maximum points.

But I think the big message is, regarding the OP, that the value of a timeout is conditional and can't be instantaneously measured.

Last edited by Mince; 01-26-2011 at 04:52 PM.