Quote:
Originally Posted by Exapno Mapcase
There are others who make wildly different predictions based on different assumptions about different numbers, most notably a pair of University of Colorado professors whose software has Romney winning with 330 electoral votes. |
I think the Bickers and Berry prediction is weak. They based their prediction on economic indicators not poll results. They tracked indicators like unemployment and income and then correlated those with the outcomes of past elections.
Now I'm not saying that's valueless but I think that approach has its limits. People do make voting choices for economic reasons but there are also dozens of other reasons. And more critically, I think it's wrong to make a prediction based on what you think people should believe and ignore contradicting data on what people say they believe.