You have given a set of perfectly plausible numbers, if they were doing an actual calculation of probabilities.
But look at some actual numbers. Here is the forecast right now for Atlanta, GA. Convectional showery weather.
The forecast for rain at any time on Monday is 50%.
For the same period, the hourly "probabilities" are:
7am 40%
8am 45%
9am 50%
10am 50%
11am 45%
12pm 45%
1pm 50%
2pm 45%
3pm 45%
4pm 40%
5pm 35%
6pm 35%
7pm 40%
How can that possibly make sense? That could only be true if the correlation between each hourly period were essentially 1.
Last edited by Riemann; 04232017 at 05:27 PM.
