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Old 04-05-2019, 07:17 AM
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Originally Posted by Sherrerd View Post

Back to Biden: Democrats in positions of power would be smart to look at the question 'what qualities in Biden are believed to be the key to winning states we're worried about, such as Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin?'

Surely it's not his age. And surely it's not that he's made serious runs at getting the nomination several times.

So it must be other traits. What are they? Why are they believed to be important? Are they important? Should we publicly examine the belief that these traits are important? If we think "maleness" is crucial, why do we believe it's crucial? Are we right about that, or are we making unwarranted assumptions? If we think "physically affectionate" is crucial, why? If we think "says whatever he's thinking" is crucial, why?

And so on. This could be a useful exercise, I believe.
Sure. Acknowledging that he is not my preferred choice I'll make that case.

You've got to answer first by identifying the key demographics you need to hit on for those states. That's going to be flipping back the Obama-Trump voters, not turning off the Romney-Clinton ones, and getting Black voter turnout up there.

He's long had strong support among that Obama-Trump demographic which includes many working class whites, and it's his lack of polish (without getting to the crude level of Trump), and his authenticity that seem to be the key traits there.

Romney-Clinton ones see as enough in the Beltway as to be a force for stability.

And right now at least he polls very well among Black voters, which might just be based on association with Obama, but could be the same authenticity and relative centrism as well. Here's from 538:
But the Democrat who is really popular with African Americans right now is former Vice President Joe Biden. In the recent Morning Consult polling, Biden was viewed favorably by 77 percent of black Democrats, with just 8 percent viewing him unfavorably. ...
What are the traits that appeal to those key demographics and why? Who else could best appeal to all three?

I might be talking myself into moving Biden up my list some ...