View Single Post
  #67  
Old 03-21-2017, 12:58 AM
Martin Hyde Martin Hyde is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 14,057
Quote:
Originally Posted by Crane View Post
The principal threat from North Korea is the line of artillery along the 38th parallel. Provoking North Korea then allowing it to initiate conflict, with an artillery barrage on the South, is not a smart strategy.

Any attack on North Korea has to begin by destroying the artillery installations along the 38th parallel. The war is likely to take the form of the UK attack on Egypt rather than our invasion of Iraq. Eliminate the artillery, air force and missile sites and use drones to pick off key personnel.

The problem is - what would the administration do next? Invade and occupy North Korea? That might help Trump's employment problem, but it would put a dent in his budget.

Trump's approval is steadily falling. There is no obvious way to stop it. Trump needs a war.

Crane
The artillery would be an early target but not the first, our first strike would have to utilize stealth bombers because that's the strike we can deliver in which the first sign of it are things blowing up. The North would see cruise missiles coming and respond, albeit their operational competence probably is overrated and they wouldn't respond as well as say, Cold War USSR/USA would've, they'd have time to react and would do so.

We only have so many stealth bombers (although they carry large payloads), initial targets would be our best guess as to where their nuclear weapons are, their nuclear facilities (so they can't try to smuggle stuff out or etc), any suspected missile batteries and their C&C. Hitting important military centers and communications infrastructure creates chaos and makes it harder for North Korea to respond. They almost certainly have a set of processes in places for commanders in the field to act semi-independently in such situations, but more communication and information is always better in war, and the ability to strike at that early and hard is a huge advantage in any conflict.

If you strike the artillery first, then all the other components I mentioned have a better chance to be part of the response to the attack.