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Old 03-08-2019, 07:31 AM
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Join Date: Apr 1999
Location: Maryland
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Given that regaining control of the Senate is the most challenging hurdle the Dems face before they can enact any of their policy agenda, I'm quite relieved that Brown has decided to stay in the Senate.

Assuming there's a Dem in the White House in 2021, the Dems need to pick up 3 seats, net, in order to get to control via 50 Senators and the VP. Doug Jones is almost certain to lose his re-election race in Alabama next year, so they need to win 4 other seats, which will already be a challenge. (538 rates the odds at somewhat under 50-50, IIRC.) If Brown's not in the Senate in 2021, they'd need to win five other seats, and that's getting even more dicey, even in what should be another Dem wave year.

Quite simply, the Dems need to throw everything they've got into winning the Senate. And once they gain control, they'll need to kill the filibuster. With the possible exception of Bernie, I figure that anyone who does well enough in the primaries to win the nomination has a much better chance of beating Trump than the Dems have of winning the Senate.