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Old 11-14-2019, 11:31 AM
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I could see him, just like I could have seen Bullock, as a strong general election candidate, and a strong primary candidate in a cycle that was playing out differently that this one did. But in the current universe? His path is really very narrow and very improbable. But it is a short investment for him. He would have to win or be a very close second in New Hampshire and bootstrap that moving forward. Fail that and he knows he's done.

How could that happen? I see it as Buttigieg winning Iowa yet voters in New Hampshire feeling he is too young and inexperienced (more even than America not ready for a gay president) for the general. With Buttigieg winning, and say Biden not being in the top three (demonstrating poor electability), less full on progressive Ds in New Hampshire might fairly suddenly want a moderate but more electable Warren alternative (as she has moved harder away from the more centrist D voters). Harris has proven that she is not that person in most voters minds by now. And New Hampshire is Patrick's backyard. He could in that scenario win New Hampshire and then leverage that to wins and fundraising going forward in what would then look like a long slog.

Improbable but higher probability than several others in the race have as their paths. Worth a few months of all out effort to see if it has any chance.