View Single Post
Old 01-10-2019, 10:34 AM
CarnalK's Avatar
CarnalK is offline
Join Date: Jul 2000
Posts: 17,660
Originally Posted by Fretful Porpentine View Post
How do you figure that? I see only one likely R-to-D flip (AL), five R-held seats that look like plausible D pickups (CO, AZ, ME, IA, NC), and seventeen other states where Rs are playing defense; while none of the others look particularly likely to flip right now, it's a numbers game where the odds of something weird happening somewhere are fairly high when one party is defending that many seats. Basically, it's the reverse of the 2018 Senate map, and with a Democratic vice-president, the Ds would only need to net three seats to have a majority.
The Senate Will Be Competitive Again In 2020, But Republicans Are Favored
There will be at least 34 seats up for election in 2020,2 22 of which are currently held by Republicans and 12 of which are currently held by Democrats — a stark contrast to the 2018 cycle, when Democrats were on the hot seat. That said, to make the kind of gains they need, Democrats will have to overcome the partisan lean of some fairly red states, plus successfully defend two seats of their own in Republican territory.
If you look at the chart, 19 of those 34 seats up for election are +9R or more. 4 of the seats the Dems are defending are competitive ranging from +1.7R to +2.1D

Last edited by CarnalK; 01-10-2019 at 10:35 AM.