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Old 02-23-2019, 07:56 PM
Thing Fish is offline
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Chicago (NL)
Posts: 3,378
Originally Posted by asahi View Post
Trump might have won by 8 points against Hillary Clinton, but he's very unlikely to win by 8 percentage points against a centrist or center-left Democrat with less baggage. Sanders or someone perceived as far left, OTOH, might lose by double digits if the economy's still buoying Trump by that point.

By contrast, the recent races show that Florida is becoming tougher and tougher for even moderate and center-left pragmatists. It's not just that Trump beat Clinton; it's also Rick Scott and Ron DeSantis winning as well in years when Trump and the GOP were much less popular nationally than they were two years ago.

Again, I think the country was just uninspired by Clinton and this was something that plagued her in every close contest. A different kind of candidate with more energy and buzz would probably carry the states that Obama did.
I'd point out, though, that in 2018 Florida Ds had a center-left pragmatist running for Senate, and a progressive leftist running for Governor, and they lost by nearly identical margins. So this doesn't support your implied thesis that it's "safer" to nominate moderates.