Anyone Have a Sense of What's Happening in NY-23?

[Polycarp]

The 2009 election of a Democrat from a district that has been reliably Republican since before the Civil War, and which turned a rather obscure former Mayor and current State Assemblywoman into a verb like Dr. Spooner, Capt. Boycott, and Judge Lynch, was in my considered opinion a signal that moderate Republicans (who make up the bulk of the district's voting population) will not support extremist conservatives, and will vote for a moderate Democrat instead when faced with that choice.

In terms of behavior, Northern New York has always seemed to me more like the rural/small-city Midwest or the Mountain States than like most of the rest of New York State. It's not doctrinaire anything, inclined to welcome a little of most political ideologies' raisons d'etre, but mindful that a little goes a long way. They'll favor land use planning and zoning, even of rural areas, but object strenuously to what they see as intrusive regulations. Theyll support welfare programs and even the public option on health care, and object strongly to government operation of most businesses. And so on; those two examples should clarify my point.

Conventional wisdom says that Congressman Owens should be an easy target for the GOP in November -- he squeaked in in a rock-solid Republoican district under circumstances unlikely ever to repear themselves. But five months from the election, the county GOP leaders cannot seem to agree on a candidate to oppose him, according to recent reports in my hometown newspaper.

Anyone have any insights (as opposed to wishful thinking based on your partisan stance) on what's apt to happen here?