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  #1001  
Old 04-12-2012, 08:38 PM
Red Skeezix Red Skeezix is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gadarene View Post
Inner's probably town, Skeezix.
Yeah, you might be on to something there.
You'll note that I was only responding to his comments. Which may also be addressing comments not made, just thoughts people are keeping inside.
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  #1002  
Old 04-12-2012, 08:50 PM
Normal Phase Normal Phase is offline
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Skeez --

At this point I'm doubtful it would be likely to get something that way. Why would a scum player lie? They'll always know when they were hit, they can construct the stories to match their status at those times.

Weakening players more or less indiscriminately just seems so obviously negative.
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  #1003  
Old 04-12-2012, 08:57 PM
Normal Phase Normal Phase is offline
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To expand on that --

lynches do not appear to be dependent on hit points. We can lynch anybody regardless whether they've been whacked or not. But at least some attacks -- the townie types I know of so far, plus presumably the one that hit ToeJam yesterday, which does not seem to have been townie -- are dependent on hit points as to whether they actually kill somebody or not. So going around knocking 50 hp off this guy and 100 off that other guy (versus not doing so) doesn't affect our ability to lynch them. But it might affect scum's ease of killing them. That bothers me.
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  #1004  
Old 04-12-2012, 09:00 PM
ToeJam ToeJam is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Normal Phase View Post
But at least some attacks -- the townie types I know of so far, plus presumably the one that hit ToeJam yesterday, which does not seem to have been townie -- are dependent on hit points as to whether they actually kill somebody or not. So going around knocking 50 hp off this guy and 100 off that other guy (versus not doing so) doesn't affect our ability to lynch them. But it might affect scum's ease of killing them. That bothers me.
Yes.
QFT.
Quite Fucking True.
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  #1005  
Old 04-12-2012, 09:22 PM
Red Skeezix Red Skeezix is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Normal Phase View Post
To expand on that --

lynches do not appear to be dependent on hit points. We can lynch anybody regardless whether they've been whacked or not. But at least some attacks -- the townie types I know of so far, plus presumably the one that hit ToeJam yesterday, which does not seem to have been townie -- are dependent on hit points as to whether they actually kill somebody or not. So going around knocking 50 hp off this guy and 100 off that other guy (versus not doing so) doesn't affect our ability to lynch them. But it might affect scum's ease of killing them. That bothers me.
Maybe you're right, I can think of scenarios where scum might be compelled to lie, but I can't really get a grasp about how plausible they are, which might be an indication that they are not.

But the position that town players dying is always a bad thing, ignores the possible value of the information generated by the deaths. I would argue that town players dying is worse than scum players dying, but not always worse then not dying.
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  #1006  
Old 04-12-2012, 09:35 PM
Normal Phase Normal Phase is offline
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No, I agree with that; I'm a fan of vigilantism actually.
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  #1007  
Old 04-12-2012, 09:36 PM
LightFoot LightFoot is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Red Skeezix View Post
snipped
Quote:
Originally Posted by LightFoot
that may be a bit of a leap, there are some players that ignore Night . But I'm sure there is some Scum in the pool
Blanket smudge much?


Take things out of context, much?
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  #1008  
Old 04-12-2012, 09:40 PM
LightFoot LightFoot is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Red Skeezix View Post
Maybe you're right, I can think of scenarios where scum might be compelled to lie, but I can't really get a grasp about how plausible they are, which might be an indication that they are not.
Scum is famous for their lying this reads odd to me
Quote:

But the position that town players dying is always a bad thing, ignores the possible value of the information generated by the deaths. I would argue that town players dying is worse than scum players dying, but not always worse then not dying.
Dead with out sharing ( since in this game you note the reveals are minimal) is never a good thing- so far we have got soldier & good that tells us very little
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  #1009  
Old 04-12-2012, 09:41 PM
LightFoot LightFoot is offline
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Yes I am posting sideways. I had a plan of response but when I read the new page I see things I want to respond to while it is fresh
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  #1010  
Old 04-12-2012, 09:46 PM
Normal Phase Normal Phase is offline
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On that last, I'm actually sort of assuming that most townies do start good. All three dead would seem to have gotten that way by order of scum -- hence more likely than not, were town. I've yet to come across anyone who's claimed anything other than good (though obviously people would be less likely to, and I'm not sitting on a ton of claims exactly). And the setup sort of implies good as the default townie status (townies can *become* neutral/evil) ... anyway I'm thinking at least for the first couple of days, good=town might be a decent assumption. Anyone wants to tell me I'm wrong, feel free.
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  #1011  
Old 04-12-2012, 09:48 PM
Red Skeezix Red Skeezix is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LightFoot View Post
Scum is famous for their lying this reads odd to me

Dead with out sharing ( since in this game you note the reveals are minimal) is never a good thing- so far we have got soldier & good that tells us very little
Probably sounds odd since I was responding to this: "At this point I'm doubtful it would be likely to get something that way. Why would a scum player lie?"

Alignment is often good enough.
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  #1012  
Old 04-12-2012, 09:48 PM
LightFoot LightFoot is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Scathach View Post
I also reiterate what I said about Lightfoot yesterday
http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/...&postcount=329

And, after a quick reread of her posts today, I note she has posted nothing but item speculation and fluff. Lurking in plain sight.

Balderdash
I responded to your comments after you made them. #336 ( with slightly fewer words than you used to question/vote me.) Thanks for responding
Basically, that is what I posted because that is precisely what I was thinking.
You may have noticed that I AM participating in this game ( unlike others)
My shorter posts are added when I have a chance to pop in from work.
Sometimes by the time I get to post what I’ve written ,a page or two have bloomed.


I think out loud- it helps me -and may help others
( should I not add my thoughts just because someone else said / thought the same thing?)
I see you kicking other people’s tyres, but what have you contributed?
The point on Gad I feel is very valid but your dog bone on me is unfounded
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  #1013  
Old 04-12-2012, 09:49 PM
Astral Rejection Astral Rejection is online now
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Big post brewing. Taking a break to drink some scotch*. If you miss my usual book-style posts, you're in for a treat.

(*tonight's scotch will be the Hibiki 12 year. Not truly a scotch at all, the Hibiki is a single malt blended together from over 30 different single malts, many of which are made specifically for the Hibiki and not available outside of the Suntory distillery in Japan.)
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  #1014  
Old 04-12-2012, 09:50 PM
choie choie is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LightFoot View Post
Take things out of context, much?
Eh, don't worry about him. A guy saying "bite me" to my utterly inoffensive remark is clearly just feeling cantankerous. At least he's participating.

I'm interested in the focus on Guiri by hidden (and not so hidden) forces. First he gets attacked, then he gets healed, and now Big Red Talky Guy is voting thrice for him. Big Red Talky Guy surely doesn't expect to influence our votes like that, does he? So what was it, a bad attempt at a smudge? Why on Guiri, who actually seems a little less active in this game than in our last? (Then again, with a sample size of two games, I'm hardly an expert on the guy's usual behavior.)
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  #1015  
Old 04-12-2012, 09:50 PM
Red Skeezix Red Skeezix is online now
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Correction: Just realized something, that others probably have known all along.

The "Good" in the reveal refers to the "Good" "Neutral" "Evil", and not necessarily town or scum. Geez could this game possibly be any more convoluted?
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  #1016  
Old 04-12-2012, 09:52 PM
LightFoot LightFoot is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Red Skeezix View Post
Probably sounds odd since I was responding to this: "At this point I'm doubtful it would be likely to get something that way. Why would a scum player lie?"

Alignment is often good enough.
I must say droping the quoted quotes ( that this board does) is an annoyance to me. I do try to add in the tastee bits when I remember they won't be there.

if that helps me make sense?
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  #1017  
Old 04-12-2012, 09:59 PM
LightFoot LightFoot is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by choie View Post
Eh, don't worry about him. A guy saying "bite me" to my utterly inoffensive remark is clearly just feeling cantankerous. At least he's participating.

I'm interested in the focus on Guiri by hidden (and not so hidden) forces. First he gets attacked, then he gets healed, and now Big Red Talky Guy is voting thrice for him. Big Red Talky Guy surely doesn't expect to influence our votes like that, does he? So what was it, a bad attempt at a smudge? Why on Guiri, who actually seems a little less active in this game than in our last? (Then again, with a sample size of two games, I'm hardly an expert on the guy's usual behavior.)
My take is there is a triple voting player (or team). The mod posts such as instructed / or as he sees fit- - monkey wrench anyone?

[sarcasm]and yes, the repeated " bite me" comments are ever so trust inspiring [/s]
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  #1018  
Old 04-12-2012, 10:00 PM
Askthepizzaguy Askthepizzaguy is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Red Skeezix View Post
Geez could this game possibly be any more convoluted?
I'll try.

The paper napkin is blue. Chess players, like poker faces, try to protect their kings and queens. Knock twice before crossing the chicken. Shakin' bacon.
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  #1019  
Old 04-12-2012, 10:01 PM
Red Skeezix Red Skeezix is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LightFoot View Post
My take is there is a triple voting player (or team). The mod posts such as instructed / or as he sees fit- - monkey wrench anyone?

[sarcasm]and yes, the repeated " bite me" comments are ever so trust inspiring [/s]
In conclusion. Bite me.
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  #1020  
Old 04-12-2012, 10:04 PM
Red Skeezix Red Skeezix is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by choie View Post
Eh, don't worry about him. A guy saying "bite me" to my utterly inoffensive remark is clearly just feeling cantankerous. At least he's participating.

I'm interested in the focus on Guiri by hidden (and not so hidden) forces. First he gets attacked, then he gets healed, and now Big Red Talky Guy is voting thrice for him. Big Red Talky Guy surely doesn't expect to influence our votes like that, does he? So what was it, a bad attempt at a smudge? Why on Guiri, who actually seems a little less active in this game than in our last? (Then again, with a sample size of two games, I'm hardly an expert on the guy's usual behavior.)
This is the second time in recent memory that you are bringing up previous games behavior and then immediately discount it. It's bugging me. If I had two votes, I'd vote PetW and Weedy, but if I had 3 I'd vote for you too.
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  #1021  
Old 04-12-2012, 10:13 PM
LightFoot LightFoot is offline
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I have some spread sheet like calc on the item votes if anyone is interested ( keeping track for my own info)
. don't want to muck up the thread with information if I'm to be called out for it though.
SPOILER:
emerald
ring
Visorslash by fubbleskag
Suburban by self
LightFoot by self
choi by septimus
ToeJam by self
choie by self

pendant

BobArrgh by self
Suburban by self
LightFoot by self
gnarlie charlie by septimus
gnarlie charlie by self
BobArrgh by ToeJam

sapphire
ring
fubbleskag by Visorslash
fubbleskag by Astral
Suburban by self
LightFoot by self
LightFoot by septimus
BobArrgh by ToeJam

Visorslash voted self "all items" probably not a valid
PetW voted self for "Ring" probably not a valid



Couldn't get it to format the way I wanted
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  #1022  
Old 04-12-2012, 10:23 PM
choie choie is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LightFoot View Post
My take is there is a triple voting player (or team). The mod posts such as instructed / or as he sees fit- - monkey wrench anyone?
Oh I knew that, heh, sorry if I was unclear. I just wondered why there's so much apparent energy spent on Guiri.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Red Skeezix View Post
This is the second time in recent memory that you are bringing up previous games behavior and then immediately discount it. It's bugging me. If I had two votes, I'd vote PetW and Weedy, but if I had 3 I'd vote for you too.
I don't get it. Am I bugging you for bringing up the behavior, or bugging you for discounting it? What am I supposed to do, claim that I know everything about [g]Guiri[/b]'s posting style after playing with him a grand total of one time before this?

As far as bringing up the behavior... well, if someone constantly behaves in a certain way throughout a variety of games, a pattern can be deduced. If said person deviates from said pattern, there may (but not always) be some value in figuring out why.

If there's no value in this sort of deduction, fine. I'm just taking my cue from others, who are more experienced in these things.

Jesus. I wouldn't eat those Cheerios if I were you, son. Someone's clearly pissed in 'em.
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  #1023  
Old 04-12-2012, 10:29 PM
BobArrgh BobArrgh is offline
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Lightfoot, I unvoted the pendant in #876.
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  #1024  
Old 04-12-2012, 10:31 PM
gnarlycharlie gnarlycharlie is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PetW View Post
I didn't think of that, I just assumed it was scum because during the night 2 townies were killed. I did think it was odd that one was by a "frenzied attacker", maybe that is a vig.
This is my second game of mafia by the way, so I'm not well versed in the different standard roles, although I did read about vigilantes when I was preparing for my first game.
okay, your post feels honest.

Unvote PetW

Quote:
Originally Posted by choie View Post
vote emerald ring to choie

Only because it was my mom's birthstone. Honestly the jewels don't interest me without knowing what they're for, and since the elemental stuff is so far over my head it might as well be Alpha Centauri, I'm ignoring it for now.

What does interest me is how many lurkers, or near-lurkers, we have. Here's a list (as of this posting) of those with under ten posts (in a game with nearly 1000, that's awfully significant). This doesn't necessarily indicate guilt, of course, since they could just be shy or intimidated. Or busy in real life. But they could also be trying to fly under the radar:

Scathach 9 - this one surprises me, because I remember Scathach as being more chatty in our last game.

realitytrip 7 - newcomer, so silence is understandable.

Tanaer 3 - three posts in the whole game?! That's not just newbieness, that's positively social phobia. Or guilt.

Bumbershoot 2 - more understandable since he's a substitute IIRC (for Drain Bead). Still, get in and get chatting, sir (or ma'am)!

lilflower 2 - though she's new to the SDMB, she's not new to Mafia games, as she mentioned she's got a different screenname on the forum where she usually plays. So why only 2 posts?

Mahaloth 2 - of all the silent players, this one strikes me as the oddest. He knows his way around and isn't shy about talking. As with everyone, it could just be real life encroaching on his time, but otherwise... what the hell, dude? Are we so boring to you that you can't join in and mix things up a little?

storyteller0910 1 - I don't know storyteller0910* enough to know whether this is typical behavior. Anyone who's played with him/her before, is this typical?

* What, were there really 909 other storytellers on the SDMB that s/he had to add the numbers at the end? Some part of me always wants to vote for anyone with screennames that are hard to type!

Red Skeezix 1 - Unlike others I don't remember Skeezix being a silent lurker type, but I think I've only played with him once, when he was Scum, and he was in the curious position of bussing Godfather (septimus at the time). Then, IIRC, he was under constant attack and made an error in posting that kinda gave away his evilitude. Maybe that's why he's silent now... doesn't want to screw up again. Or, as stated, real life got in the way.

I'm not saying "lynch the lurkers" -- I'm just saying that y'all should speak up and participate, because a) it gives us more to work with, and more info is always better, and b) it's more fun for you to join in, even if you're briefly accused (Gadarene's slow decline into hysterical madness notwithstanding).
as explained by others, story is stuck in the middle of nowhere (actually NC) with only his mobile to get online.

mahaloth is on a trip to another continent. it's a very personal thing but not in a bad way.

the rest... *shrugs*

Quote:
Originally Posted by Gadarene View Post
I think gnarly looks fairly scummy so far. His posts have been almost entirely lacking in substance, he seems to be coasting along, and I haven't seen anything from him that indicates that he's trying to figure out how to solve the game.
up to now you still have a grasp on my playstyle? mostly gut and metagame. i'm a very slow starter. i've said that a number of times now in several games now, two of which you were in and i was town.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Silver Jan View Post
Oh dear, I thought that in this game gnarley looked more Townie just because he was talking more. He doesn't post much usually but when he is scum he posts even less and in this game he is posting a lot more. Yeah, I know it's all meta gamey.
i'm talking a little more than usual mainly because people keep bitching (they keep killing me only to be embarrassed about it when i flip town) and i have more time now that classes have ended.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Askthepizzaguy View Post
Vote: GuiriEnEspana
Vote: GuiriEnEspana
Vote: GuiriEnEspana
wasting votes? obviously the timing in D1 was much better.
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  #1025  
Old 04-12-2012, 10:45 PM
PetW PetW is offline
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I wouldn't count on those votes being final. Most likely they'll be used to push a Townie to a lynch at the last minute, again.
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  #1026  
Old 04-12-2012, 10:49 PM
Gadarene Gadarene is offline
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Leaning town:
Normal Phase
choie
The person I've been communicating with who as far as I know would still prefer not to be outed
Weedy (but I have my eye on you)

Leaning scum:
gnarlycharlie
PetW

Leaning different-win-condition-than-Townies:
fubbleskag

I could probably firm up some more reads if I thought further about it, which I'll do tonight and report back.
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  #1027  
Old 04-12-2012, 10:49 PM
Askthepizzaguy Askthepizzaguy is offline
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unvote GuriEnEspana
unvote GuriEnEspana
unvote GuriEnEspana


Vote Astral Rejection
Vote Astral Rejection
Vote Astral Rejection


"Fear not, weaklings, for I will cure you all of this Astral Infection."
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  #1028  
Old 04-12-2012, 10:51 PM
Visorslash Visorslash is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Askthepizzaguy View Post
unvote GuriEnEspana
unvote GuriEnEspana
unvote GuriEnEspana


Vote Astral Rejection
Vote Astral Rejection
Vote Astral Rejection


"Fear not, weaklings, for I will cure you all of this Astral Infection."
I raise you by one I don't give a fuck.

Gad, calm the hell down. Just because you are scum and we want you dead, doesn't mean you have to blow up at us.
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  #1029  
Old 04-12-2012, 10:52 PM
PetW PetW is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Askthepizzaguy View Post
unvote GuriEnEspana
unvote GuriEnEspana
unvote GuriEnEspana


Vote Astral Rejection
Vote Astral Rejection
Vote Astral Rejection


"Fear not, weaklings, for I will cure you all of this Astral Infection."
Can you take care of my "wee-wee disease", while you're at it?
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  #1030  
Old 04-12-2012, 10:59 PM
Normal Phase Normal Phase is offline
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Careful, PetW -- Pizza usually cures that particular infection by amputation of the head.

Now the demon's just playing with us. Bad demon.
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  #1031  
Old 04-12-2012, 11:00 PM
Askthepizzaguy Askthepizzaguy is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PetW View Post
Can you take care of my "wee-wee disease", while you're at it?
"So far I've threatened to neuter two of you, and now a third is volunteering for it. I think exterminating your species would be doing this dimension a favor."


-IC-
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  #1032  
Old 04-13-2012, 12:59 AM
gnarlycharlie gnarlycharlie is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gadarene View Post
Leaning town:
Normal Phase
choie
The person I've been communicating with who as far as I know would still prefer not to be outed
Weedy (but I have my eye on you)

Leaning scum:
gnarlycharlie
PetW

Leaning different-win-condition-than-Townies:
fubbleskag

I could probably firm up some more reads if I thought further about it, which I'll do tonight and report back.
i see you didn't even bother to comment on my reply to your earlier post. oh well.
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  #1033  
Old 04-13-2012, 01:10 AM
Astral Rejection Astral Rejection is online now
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Astral Rejection hits you with a wall of words! It's super effective!

A couple of things I want to talk about. This is the abridged version of my enormous post, because as it gets later, I'm finding it harder to keep my thoughts organized. I've got until monday, so I don't feel too bad putting off some of what I want to talk about.

First off, some bookkeping, and facts I found interesting. I'll use spoilers to try to keep the length down.

First votes only. This tracks the first vote of all voters. All un-numbered votes are prior to post 132 – I realized too late that it might be useful info, and it's late now and I don't feel like going back. For my purposes, "pre-132" is good enough for me.
SPOILER:
Astral Rejection: GuiriEnEspana, Gadarene
Mosier: Normal Phase, Lightfoot, Suburban Plankton (308)
Septimus: Choie
Normal Phase: Visorslash
Choie: Astral Rejection
Gadarene: NAF1138, ToeJam, Mahaloth, Inner Stickler (197), BobArrgh (307), lilflower (352)
Visorslash: Weedy, Silver Jan, Mosier, Septimus (132), PetW (190)
NAF1138: glee
Silver Jan: gnarlycharlie (176), MHaye (321)
Lightfoot: Scathach (329)
Mahaloth: realitytrip (338)


Final Vote count from Pizza.
SPOILER:
Mosier (8): Lightfoot, Suburban Plankton, gnarlycharlie, Normal Phase, Askthepizzaguy, Askthepizzaguy, Askthepizzaguy
Gadarene (7): NAF1138, ToeJam, Inner Stickler, Visorslash, BobArrgh, lilflower

Astral Rejection (5): Guiri, Gadarene, septimus, MHaye, choie

Visorslash (3): Silver Jan, Mosier***, Mahaloth, PetW


Lightfoot (1): Scathach

Mahaloth (1): realitytrip

Septimus (1): Weedy

MHaye (1): Astral Rejection


Abstain/Unvote/Present (1): Glee,

 
***- Vote not bolded, therefore not legal


People whose first vote was also their final vote. Final is used here to mean their vote was on their original target at Dusk. In a few cases, voters may have had a different intervening vote, but ultimately settled back on their first target.
SPOILER:
Guiri (for Astral Rejection)
Gadarene (for Astral Rejection)
Lightfoot (for Mosier)
Suburban Plankton (for Mosier)
Normal Phase (for Mosier)
NAF1138 (for Gadarene)
ToeJam (for Gadarene)
Inner Stickler (for Gadarene)
BobArrgh (for Gadarene)
Lilflower (for Gadarene)
Scathach (for Lightfoot)
realitytrip (for Mahaloth)
Silver Jan (for Visorslash)
Mosier (didn't technically count, for Visorslash)


Something I really like to do, and I find it helps me organize my thoughts, is look at the vote data in new ways. Before I collected all the data, I assumed only a few people would maintain their vote the entire day; I expected a more fluid voting scheme. Instead, we had 14 voters who maintained their original vote. I need to break this down a little further. Day 1 ended after post 368, so any votes before post 184 would be in the first half of the day (more correctly, the first half of the conversation, since posts don't directly correspond to time. For my purposes, let's call that half). So, that being said, let's look at:

People who kept their votes from the first half of the Day until the end of Day.
SPOILER:
GuiriEnEspana
Gadarene
Normal Phase
Lightfoot
NAF1138
ToeJam
Silver Jan
Mosier


Get ready for a weird sentence: I believe that final list has a higher-than-average chance of containing a higher-than-average proportion of scum. There are 8 names on that list (7, really, since we should discount Mosier), and the 1/4th rule would suggest it contains 2 scum. I'm guessing there are 3 (or more?) on that list.

My reasoning: voting is hard for scum. Building cases, staying out of the spotlight, keeping off the radar, all while staying involved in the game, is a challenging tightrope scum have to walk. Some will choose to lurk, but I've never seen an entire team lurk. Early votes, especially on Day 1, are easily dismissable. As the conversation continues, newer, better cases will organically emerge from the talk. Town will typically shift their voting as their opinions change; scum, their "participation" assured with a vote, generally don't want to put themselves back into danger by moving, and having to justify, another vote.

Of course, there are flaws in this theory. We have an exceptionally large group of lurkers in this game, and with so few posts, it's almost impossible to assess their scumminess. Any number of them could potentially be scum, skewing the rest of the group (and these figures).

Another interesting quirk of the voting pattern becomes obvious when we view these early, potentially scummy votes: possible partners. All of our early voters voted in pairs.

Guiri & Gad voted for Astral
Normal Phase & Lightfoot for Mosier
NAF & ToeJam for Gadarene
Silver Jan & Mosier for Visorslash

Mosier, again, is innocent, so I'd recommend discounting that pair. Guiri & Gad were perhaps too obviously in lockstep (Gad's first reason for voting for Astral: "I agree with Guiri."), so I personally am going to discard that one, too, on the basis of "I doubt scum would so obviously collude on Day 1." Your mileage may vary. We don't currently have enough information to assess the other two pairings, but it's something we should definitely revisit when one of the pair dies and we learn their alignment.

However, there is another way to interpret all of this data. We have three deaths, all of which appear to be town (I noticed on a quick readthrough that there was some confusion about the "good" reveal, but I'm assuming it means town for now). We know from these reveals that all of glee's, mosier's, and inner stickler's suspicions were honestly felt, and we have to decide on a case-by-case basis how we feel about all of the questions, smudges, and votes they accrued while they were alive. Helpfully, I've made a list:

People what mentioned and voted for, and got voted by, the town what are dead.
SPOILER:
Inner, 86: doesn't see what Guiri and Gad are getting at re: voting for astral

Lightfoot, post 119: if Mosier makes a case on Visor, lightfoot will "look less sharply towards you."

Mosier voted for Visorslash

Suburban, post 133: accuses Mosier of snuggling

Inner, post 135: doesn't get any of the votes for Visor

Normal, post 141: has some suspicions of Mosier

Inner Stickler, post 197: suspects Astral and Gad, votes Gad

Inner Stickler, post 279: further suspicions of Astral for the "vote-shenanigans-prevention-action" (My term for it)

Suburban Plankton, post 308: votes Mosier for snuggling. Also posits potential scumminess of glee.

gnarlycharlie, post 311: looking at mosier, pinged him earlier.

gnarlycharlie, post 313: votes for Mosier, but found Septimus scummier. Mosier has a "slightly better chanbce of being lynched."

Suburban Plankton, post 314: questions glee

Normal Phase, post 323: "glee, you are not contributing either"

Normal Phase, post 347: on mosier, calls out for self-consciousness, not addressing arguments, weak vote for visor, maybe in over his head

GuiriEnEspana protected Inner Stickler (Dusk 1)


Odds are great I've missed some stuff, but this is a start. Clearly, some names keep popping up. This is the part of my analysis that is going to have to wait for later, because I need to re-read everything yet again to see how much weight I'd give each bit, to cross-reference against my vote charts, and to do a check to see what I've missed.

--------------------------------------------------------

Enough voting stuff. While I was re-reading, a couple of posts jumped out at me.

Quote:
Originally Posted by realitytrip View Post
Greetings, fellow adventurers! I see the talk is already flowing fast and furious. I am used to playing werewolf in person, its going to take me a little while to catch on to the customs here, I hope you will bear with me.

The first day is pretty much my least favorite part of the game. No one has any past behavior to go on (outside of meta-gaming, of course) and so anything out of the ordinary comes up to great scrutiny. I find the quick judgment to vote a bit disturbing...two or three lines and you are on the chopping block?

For my part, I don't feel ready to vote for anyone just yet. The day is young.
Hard game is hard, right? I've never liked posts like this, because it's fluff disguised as pro-town helpful banter. We all know that no one has any past behavior to go on. We know it's tough. And the part about finding "the quick judgment to vote a bit disturbing" is ludicrous. Somebody has to be the first vote, and for some reason. If you have an issue with the Astral Rejection votes, or the Visorslash votes, or what have you, lay them out. The irony of this isn't lost on me; GuiriEnEspana called me out for my first post, saying it felt too self-conscious, and now I'm saying pretty much the same thing about realitytrip. I think it's fundamentally different, though... my post was early on, and it was meant as a joke (YMMV). This is right in the middle of several large discussions, with nothing but a smudge on all of the voters so far.

Quote:
Originally Posted by lilflower View Post
I am trying to skim through the thread to catch up. I was dumb enough to take 'too busy to play' literally and have been working on the logistics for starting a new job this past week.

vote Gadarene

This is totally meta-gamey and only based on a single game (lame, I know) but since he seems to be getting other votes as well, I may not be totally off base here. The basic issue is that in the last game we played*, he was the talkingest townie in the game and worked very hard to get town to work together. I'm not seeing any of that here and I'm wondering if it means he is scum.


* I'm Metallic Squink on Giraffe Boards.
It's a late vote for nebulous reasons. There have been any number of explanations given on why Gadarene was suspicious to people. Regardless of the quality of those reasons, I feel like lilflower (if she was making an honest vote) would have mentioned some of those reasons. This is also the very last vote of the Day, finally pushing Gadarene into a clear lynch leader (Choie had tied Astral Rejection and Gadarene earlier). This part honestly doesn't look that great for me; if Gadarene and I are both town, scum lilflower has no reason to pick one over the other. If I'm scum, scum lilflower's motive is more clear. However, the vote itself wasn't necessary; I believe Gadarene would have been lynched regardless. Why pick Gadarene over me if lilflower is scum? It makes no sense if Gad is town, but if Gad and lilflower are both scum, and Gad is already the lynch target, lilflower could be hoping for town credit for "sealing the deal."

I think my writing is starting to get unclear, so I hope that made sense. I need to sleep on it and re-read their posts to decide which option I think is more likely. The vote itself doesn't sit right with me, though, so I wanted to make sure to point that out.

Let's end on a joke.

Quote:
Originally Posted by NAF1138 View Post
Is Astral Rejection the poster formerly known as Pedescribe or does he just share a philosophical outlook on mafia playing with Pede?

(I can't believe I don't know the answer to this question)
I can't believe I missed this before. NAF! We've played together before, man! I had no idea I was so forgettable!
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  #1034  
Old 04-13-2012, 02:36 AM
Weedy Weedy is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Astral Rejection View Post
Good thing nobody's talking about giving me one, then!

OK, I think I misunderstood what you, fubbleskag and Visor are doing.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Normal Phase View Post
I would like to see about ten more votes on the table by evening, for one thing. Please townies -- don't leave the scum with only one thing to worry about, or no things to worry about. Make them react (or hide -- and certainly by tomorrow at the latest a great deal of town killing and lynching effort should be going towards those who hide) and make them fear you.

I find it hard to care too much about possession of a bunch of objects whose uses I have no idea of, especially not when I already have one thing I don't know how to use. I'd like all three to go to different people, that's my only real preference there. If one goes to me that's cool, if not, that's cool too. Somebody who's talking about me as town vote me something; I'll pile on.

I do care about information, so if people trust me to be town that's how I'd like to see it shown.

Normal sounding Townie as all get out to me.


Quote:
Originally Posted by septimus View Post
Vote: Emerald Ring to choie
Vote: Blue Pendant to gnarlycharlie
Vote: Sapphire Ring to LightFoot


Vote: Present

Happy with choie, haven't thought about Lightfoot much, have some concern about gnarlycharlie. How bout Normal Phase instead?

vote: emerald ring to choie
vote: blue pendant to Normal Phase


Quote:
Originally Posted by gnarlycharlie View Post

assuming the three kills were by scum because the Demon Lord killed them all or PIS slip? let's put more pressure.

Vote: PetW
Hate this. Vote on a wagon for a really thin reason. I don't like the PIS accusation, it seems like an excuse.

If this is PetW's second game, then I bet he is Town here.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Normal Phase View Post
As things stand, of that list I would be happy to see pot shots taken at (or more organized vig attempts used on) Tanaer, lilflower or Skeezix. They really all need to show up to do more than just place a vote and leave, too; that'll look like they're just trying to avoid mod-kill.
I know that Tanaer is flat out IRL right now. Also, I want a chnce to try to read her :P
Quote:
Originally Posted by ToeJam View Post
Ah, thanks- I had moved on to my coloring the other votes didn't check to see if the color came out right.

Vote Septimus.


Thanks.

And Yes, Septimus- how is it beneficial for us (if you're town) to know who you find less Scummy? Your voting record should show who you find most scummy, and everyone else should be LESS scummy.
Unless you're actively trying to defend them, there's no need to cuddle random other players- unless you've got a reason to want to get on their good side. Hence the paranoia.
I think finding other Townies is important in this gme so that Town can work together to distribute items, and coordinate attacks.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Red Skeezix View Post

Also, the amount of times I've been scum in previous games has no bearing on whether or not I'm scum now. By your own admission, you have never played with me as town (no idea if this is true or not), so you lack a reference point. Why go down that road?

unvote: Petw
vote: Weedy
Normal had a read and it matches my limited experience. If we are going to be vigging lurkers, it makes sense to vig the player who is known to lurk as Scum, rather than someone who lacks internet access this week.
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  #1035  
Old 04-13-2012, 02:55 AM
Normal Phase Normal Phase is offline
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unvote, vote Astral Rejection

I'm almost positive. All of that "analysis" and you didn't even mention MHaye? The guy you currently have a vote on? The best you can come up with is:

lilflower: Easy, easy easy target, even if she does ever turn up scum.
realitytrip: Same "crime" as you got picked up on, which is fine, but you spend more time explaining why you're not being hypocritical than you do why he is scummy. This is the same issue as with MHaye -- what exactly is your audience here and what are you trying to convince them of? That realitytrip is scummy? Or that you're being reasonable?

Nothing -- not one word -- about MHaye, the guy you voted for yesterday while the bandwagon was getting rolling on you, and who you were quick to vote for today on the strength of your previous vote but MY case, to which you have added not so much as a sentence ...

Your theory about single votes -- which I think IS broadly valid, by the way, but on day one the least so of any day, and at any rate: I bet you'll find scum in this bunch of eight people, but I'm only going to rule a few out and no one in ...? And you half-qualify even the conclusions you do draw to the point of uselessness.

The thing about dead townies and the same names coming up over and over -- you mean Gadarene and Mosier, those names? The guys who EVERYONE was discussing on day one? What on earth could you possibly even be aiming at with this, Astral, unless it's some backhanded smudge of Gadarene? There's no reason for it otherwise. This is not scum-hunting, Astral. You're better than this. At this point I think you and MHaye are both scum, and you bussed him on day one thinking you might as well because you could be on the way out anyway.

I may as well add at this point that PetW's responses since my vote have me substantially less suspicious of him than I was at the time I placed it.
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  #1036  
Old 04-13-2012, 02:55 AM
GuiriEnEspaña GuiriEnEspaña is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Astral Rejection View Post
I've got until monday, so I don't feel too bad putting off some of what I want to talk about.
Monday? You sure about that? I thought Day ended on Sunday.



Quote:
Originally Posted by Astral Rejection View Post
Get ready for a weird sentence: I believe that final list has a higher-than-average chance of containing a higher-than-average proportion of scum. There are 8 names on that list (7, really, since we should discount Mosier), and the 1/4th rule would suggest it contains 2 scum. I'm guessing there are 3 (or more?) on that list.
The shorter than usual Day, coupled with the holiday weekend dusk, and the fact that all those early votes were on the main lynch contenders right up to Day end, would explain some of lack of movement in votes.

A nitpick your choice of cut-off point, given that D1 only started in #53, half way through Day 1 would be #210, which also corresponds to the 36 hour mark. It doesn't change much but it would include PetW's vote on Visorslash and InnerStickler's on Gadarene as two additional early voters who never moved their vote. You also missed Mahaloth's early vote on Visorslash which never moved.

But your analysis reminded me I want to review ToeJam.
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  #1037  
Old 04-13-2012, 03:09 AM
Normal Phase Normal Phase is offline
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I mean just look at this.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Astral Rejection
However, there is another way to interpret all of this data. We have three deaths, all of which appear to be town (I noticed on a quick readthrough that there was some confusion about the "good" reveal, but I'm assuming it means town for now). We know from these reveals that all of glee's, mosier's, and inner stickler's suspicions were honestly felt, and we have to decide on a case-by-case basis how we feel about all of the questions, smudges, and votes they accrued while they were alive. Helpfully, I've made a list:

People what mentioned and voted for, and got voted by, the town what are dead.

(snip lots and lots of mentions of Gadarene and Mosier, the latter being one of the "town what are dead")

Odds are great I've missed some stuff, but this is a start. Clearly, some names keep popping up. This is the part of my analysis that is going to have to wait for later, because I need to re-read everything yet again to see how much weight I'd give each bit, to cross-reference against my vote charts, and to do a check to see what I've missed.
And he can't even bring himself to actually SAY -- all these dead guys kept talking about Gadarene, so Gadarene should be a suspect. And yet this is not something needs to be cross-referenced and deeply analyzed, if you actually believe what you're saying. It's right there. This cannot be for real.

And this?
Quote:
This part honestly doesn't look that great for me; if Gadarene and I are both town, scum lilflower has no reason to pick one over the other. If I'm scum, scum lilflower's motive is more clear. However, the vote itself wasn't necessary; I believe Gadarene would have been lynched regardless. Why pick Gadarene over me if lilflower is scum? It makes no sense if Gad is town, but if Gad and lilflower are both scum, and Gad is already the lynch target, lilflower could be hoping for town credit for "sealing the deal."
This is so ... something I can't even name. You know, Astral, lilflower *could* have chosen Gadarene over you, if scum, just because it was an easy bandwagon to chuck a vote on and hey, one townie's as good as another. But you can't leave it at that. You have to worry at the logic that says a scum lilflower could have been trying to save you, like you're picking at a scab. I just don't see a townie Astral being all that concerned about it. Certainly not to the extent of spending an entire paragraph trying to make lilflower (and Gad) scum/Astral not scum consistent with everything else you've said and that has occurred in the game so far. You're far too concerned with making sure you've crossed all your t's and dotted all your i's, to come across as honest. Generally, townies just get to the point already. They don't notice if their underpants are hanging out, because they're not going around worried people are looking at their hind ends. You know?
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  #1038  
Old 04-13-2012, 03:48 AM
Silver Jan Silver Jan is offline
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Posts: 746
Unvote PetW

On reading that this is only his second game I think he might just have been trying to be helpful and not really trying to boss Town around.

I want to have a good look at Astral, I have a FOS on him already but I want to have a more solid argument either for or against him.
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  #1039  
Old 04-13-2012, 04:02 AM
Visorslash Visorslash is offline
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Can we just kill Gadarene. Please. Then we can kill Astral.
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  #1040  
Old 04-13-2012, 06:50 AM
Weedy Weedy is offline
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vote MHaye

I like Normal's case from before. With the triple vote available to Scum, I think we need strong wagons, not people voting each their own way.

I'm probably the only one who hasn't found Visorslash that controversial. I was expecting much more from the sign-up thread, made me think he might be Scum gone quiet. No one else seems to find him quiet though.

I'm no longer suspicous of BobArrgh, given his explantion, and that glee flipped villager.

ToeJam has been posting a lot without saying much.
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  #1041  
Old 04-13-2012, 06:52 AM
gnarlycharlie gnarlycharlie is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Weedy View Post

Hate this. Vote on a wagon for a really thin reason. I don't like the PIS accusation, it seems like an excuse.

If this is PetW's second game, then I bet he is Town here.
i don't suppose it matters that i unvoted him, does it? so when do you like PIS accusations? never? if not, when then? i bet the answer is 'it depends.' judgment call then, right?

as for the wagon vote, that's more popular on POG than here. i don't see why a wagon vote comes into play. have you voted yet? i can't seem to find a vote. not a fan of vote often or vote early? should you get voted for not following a convention more popular here?

you are free to vote me or if i missed your vote, you are free to unvote and vote me. all you've done is smudge me. since i've unvoted PetW i'm free to

Vote Weedy
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  #1042  
Old 04-13-2012, 07:17 AM
Astral Rejection Astral Rejection is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Normal Phase View Post
I'm almost positive. All of that "analysis" and you didn't even mention MHaye? The guy you currently have a vote on? The best you can come up with is:
/shrug.

I posted at 1:10 am on a work night. My vote is still on MHaye, I didn't need to beat that horse to death. I wanted to post my thoughts on the vote, and then go to bed.

Can't please 'em all, I guess.
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  #1043  
Old 04-13-2012, 07:23 AM
Weedy Weedy is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gnarlycharlie View Post
i don't suppose it matters that i unvoted him, does it? so when do you like PIS accusations? never? if not, when then? i bet the answer is 'it depends.' judgment call then, right?

as for the wagon vote, that's more popular on POG than here. i don't see why a wagon vote comes into play. have you voted yet? i can't seem to find a vote. not a fan of vote often or vote early? should you get voted for not following a convention more popular here?

you are free to vote me or if i missed your vote, you are free to unvote and vote me. all you've done is smudge me. since i've unvoted PetW i'm free to

Vote Weedy
These questions are confusing.

Sometimes PIS is obviously PIS, but most of the time, it isn't. I think this wasn't, and you were reaching to describe it as such. It was like everyone had already commented on the scummy things about PetW and you didnt just want to do a 'me, too' vote so you had to make something up. I think Scum are more self conscious about their votes than Town, so it seemed Scummy to me.

I missed the unvote. Was it after everyone else did?

Wagons are fairly mandatory on POG. You will get yelled at if you vote off wagon. I don't think that's the case on the SDMB. I'm not sure if you are talking about your vote on PetW's wagon, or my desire to have a village-led wagon to counteract the triple demon vote.

I vote late more often than I vote early - is that OK? I don't think I should get wagoned for it, no, but if the custom here is to vote early (I think there's actually quite a lot of variability in when people vote), I will endeavour to adapt. I hadn't voted, but I have now. I thought about voting you, but I don't think your wagon would go today; I can if you like.
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  #1044  
Old 04-13-2012, 07:33 AM
Astral Rejection Astral Rejection is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Normal Phase View Post
And he can't even bring himself to actually SAY -- all these dead guys kept talking about Gadarene, so Gadarene should be a suspect. And yet this is not something needs to be cross-referenced and deeply analyzed, if you actually believe what you're saying. It's right there. This cannot be for real.
I wanted to address this part directly to head off your misunderstanding before others start subscribing to it

I don't think Guiri and Gad are a pair, as I mentioned. I think one of them could be scum based on my entire write-up, and I want to, as you say, "cross reference" and deeply analyze. I didn't go into depth on anyone because it was taking me a long time to write as much as I did.

I'm not sure why you want me to vote for Gadarene immediately, when (despite being a constant source conversation topic), I don't find him substantially scummier than the other 6 possibilities. Yes, this needs further evaluation when I've had a chance to look at it again, and I don't get why that's suddenly a bad thing.
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  #1045  
Old 04-13-2012, 07:47 AM
Normal Phase Normal Phase is offline
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I don't want you to vote for Gadarene, that's not what I was saying there. It was more like you put this thing out there, "oh what could this mean, I don't know, will have to look at a bit more later on" despite that, if you look at it in the context of what you have just said about maybe the dead guys knew what they were talking about, then the only real conclusion one can draw from that list of comments is "Gadarene should be considered suspicious". And yet you don't actually say that. It comes off as very much trying to lead your readers to a certain conclusion without getting your hands dirty with that conclusion yourself.
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  #1046  
Old 04-13-2012, 07:59 AM
Normal Phase Normal Phase is offline
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And the thing about the other six possibilities -- it's just a weird, weird way to look at scumminess, Astral. It's not really all that different from my criticism of MHaye as approaching things too "top-down", it just has a different focus. I can't even say that I've never tried to organize suspects in ways reminiscent of what you're doing, but it is always a late-game thing, when I can start getting into patterns of behavior to try to distinguish people who are otherwise not giving off scum tells, or who are all giving off roughly equivalent ones. It doesn't happen on day two, when there are no patterns yet. What you're doing is not a substitute for that natural, more organic "hey, that looks scummy and here's why". You do sort of do that with realitytrip and lilflower, but in the context of everything else it doesn't convince me.
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  #1047  
Old 04-13-2012, 08:04 AM
Gadarene Gadarene is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Visorslash View Post
Can we just kill Gadarene. Please. Then we can kill Astral.
Give actual reasons, or go jump off a cake.
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  #1048  
Old 04-13-2012, 08:41 AM
Astral Rejection Astral Rejection is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Normal Phase View Post
And the thing about the other six possibilities -- it's just a weird, weird way to look at scumminess, Astral. It's not really all that different from my criticism of MHaye as approaching things too "top-down", it just has a different focus. I can't even say that I've never tried to organize suspects in ways reminiscent of what you're doing, but it is always a late-game thing, when I can start getting into patterns of behavior to try to distinguish people who are otherwise not giving off scum tells, or who are all giving off roughly equivalent ones. It doesn't happen on day two, when there are no patterns yet. What you're doing is not a substitute for that natural, more organic "hey, that looks scummy and here's why". You do sort of do that with realitytrip and lilflower, but in the context of everything else it doesn't convince me.
You mean, like I did with MHaye? The guy you were voting for too until just recently?

Here's the thing, Normal: I can do both. It's not some all or nothing thing where I either try to be analytical or I try to point out individual scummy things. I like looking at the vote records in lots of different ways. I do it in game after game because I think it helps me.

It's fine that you never do this on Day 2. That doesn't mean there's no value in it. Further, your claim that there are "no patterns" is an odd one, since I found 8 early voters who voted in pairs. That seems worth investigating before dismissing, no?

I wonder how much of your problem with this is honest, and how much of it is because you're on that 8-person list and you want to discredit my thoughts early.

Even if at the end of the Day I conclude there was nothing significant about these votes (that I can detect yet), I've got this already written up and ready to cross-check with future votes and cases. I don't get why you're so determined to suggest that this was worthless.
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  #1049  
Old 04-13-2012, 09:03 AM
Normal Phase Normal Phase is offline
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Can you link your first vote on MHaye, please?

About your pairs of voters, I'm having a hard time figuring out why you are honing in on that as meaningful at all, why you could possibly think it would be. You're starting off from a standpoint of people who only place one vote in a Day being statistically more likely to be scum than otherwise, which I do think is OK. But then you somewhat arbitrarily narrow that down by excluding people who only placed a vote in the second half of the day, which I do not agree with, since I also have the belief that, all else being equal, scum will vote later rather than sooner. And then from that artificial and IMO by this point null pool, you find it "interesting" that everyone in it is paired up with someone else. I fail completely to see why this should be interesting -- why you should think it's likely to be meaningful at all that this pool breaks out in pairs.

It just looks fake, Astral, like you're searching around in vain for something you can pin some sort of meaning to. And you're spending enormous amounts of effort on it, and almost none on creating good cases in the traditional sense. It looks to me like that's because you're having trouble doing the latter.

I'm not complaining about your vote on MHaye, by the way, at least not the fact of its existence. I'm quite happy it's there, since I'm hugely suspicious of him as well. The more votes, the merrier.
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  #1050  
Old 04-13-2012, 09:09 AM
Visorslash Visorslash is offline
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Astral you're going to find scum if you take a sample size of any reasonable proportions.

And Gadarene, the cake is a lie.

@ The person who said I'm not controversial

I haven't the time nor effort at the moment to bother.
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