Newt Gringrich - ever a serious candidate

[GreedySmurf]

I've just read a thread over in Great Debates about a laughable declaration by Newt Gringrich to the NRA. I'm not 100% knowledgeable about US politics, or Newt himself, but it seems every time I hear his name, it's attached to some nutbag ultra-right wing idea/statement. Maybe it's only the most extreme stuff that makes it way over here to Oz?

But anyway, there was a comment in the thread about his candidacy for the republican ticket for president. Would he ever be taken seriously as a candidate for the party? And if so, would he ever have any chance of making it into the White House?

[Procrustus]

[quote]

Originally Posted by GreedySmurf

But anyway, there was a comment in the thread about his candidacy for the republican ticket for president. Would he ever be taken seriously as a candidate for the party? And if so, would he ever have any chance of making it into the White House?[/QUOTE

1. yes, he was leading in the polls at one point. That's how you do it these days.

2. No way of knowing, but I assume not without some chain of unusual events.. If he got the nomination and Obama screwed something up real bad in October, then sure, it could happen.

[zombywoof]

The Republican Primary results to date are as follows - make of them what you will (a candidate needs 1144 out of 2286 delegates to win the nomination):

Romney - 724 delegates - 5.6M popular votes - 24 states won
Santorum - 217 delegates - 3.4M popular votes - 11 states won (has left the race)
Gingrich - 131 delegates - 2.4M popular votes - 2 states won (rumored to be leaving the race next week)
Paul - 54 delegates - 1.3M popular votes - 0 states won

[Little Nemo]

Originally Posted by GreedySmurf

But anyway, there was a comment in the thread about his candidacy for the republican ticket for president. Would he ever be taken seriously as a candidate for the party? And if so, would he ever have any chance of making it into the White House?

The only way Newt Gingrich is getting elected President this year is if Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, and Barack Obama are caught in bed together.

[njtt]

You should also be aware that, after Romney, and after very early stages where people such as Huntsman got knocked out, Gingrich was probably the least nutty, least ultra-rightist of the Republican Primary contenders.

American politics is in a very sad and scary state.

[Gagundathar]

Yes, you know something is seriously wrong when Newt Gingrich is considered to be the sane Republican in the race.

[Little Nemo]

Originally Posted by Gagundathar

Yes, you know something is seriously wrong when Newt Gingrich is considered to be the sane Republican in the race.

I said a few months back that it's pretty bad when you're having a Presidential race and Ron Paul doesn't make the top three craziest candidates list.

[R. P. McMurphy]

Yes, he was a serious candidate just like Howard Dean was a serious, although not nearly as crazy, candidate for the Democrats. The problem with Gingrich is that he actually believes his own BS. He's not stupid, he's just deluded.

If you look back at the Republican primary race it became a "flavor of the month". Gingrich had his month along with the rest of them. I'm wondering if the media has some intention in this phenomenon just to keep people watching the political news. The way that popularity swings like it does seems a bit suspicious.

[Gary "Wombat" Robson]

[moderating]

1. Many of the comments in this thread are quite inappropriate for GQ.
2. We have a forum just for this kind of discussion. It's called "Elections." I moved this thread there.
3. No warnings issued.

[/moderating]

[Little Nemo]

Originally Posted by Gary "Wombat" Robson

Many of the comments in this thread are quite inappropriate for GQ.

I assuming mine was one of these. In our collective defense, "Is Newt Gingrich considered a serious candidate?" is pretty much a call for opinions. It's not a question subject to a factual answer.

[Chronos]

Yes, Gingrich was a serious candidate. Speaker of the House is a reasonable stepping stone to the Presidency (though perhaps a bit of a stretch, compared with a governorship or the Senate). For comparison, a pizza company CEO or a reality show host are not serious candidates.

[appleciders]

It's kind of amazing that the interest level is so low right now, and Gingrich so ignored, that even a couple days after he announced-that-he-would-announce that he's giving up the ghost, Wikipedia does not reflect that fact in either the Newt Gingrich page or the Republican Primary page. It's rare to find Wikipedia so behind the curve on current events.

[Measure for Measure]

I thought Gingrich had one foot in the serious camp and one foot outside of it. If he was 100% serious, his campaign managers wouldn't have fled him en masse in the Summer or 2011 (Gingrich wanted to take a cruise with Callista). If he was 100% serious he wouldn't have over-spent on private jets and the like. To put it another way, his bet was hedged with an eye to a post-race career. Book tours, TV appearances and the rubber chicken circuit can be fairly lucrative.

But his campaign is not $4.3 million in debt, with an estimated $1.2 million in cash on hand. (Net: $3.1 million debt). I'm not sure what the consequences of that are though. We'll have a better idea in a year what his Plan B is. Then we'll know whether he was 60% or 100% serious.

Oddly, the more serious he is, the weirder his campaign will look.

[gamerunknown]

Originally Posted by Chronos

For comparison, a pizza company CEO or a reality show host are not serious candidates.

It's not the first time a business-person has entered the race as a Republican: Wendell Wilkie did it in 1940 from what I recall. Many candidates may seem implausible until they actually run, like Ronald Reagan for instance (though he did have political experience before running).

[shiftless]

Newt was serious in the sense that he would like to be president if he could. People give him money to campaign, he gets publicity. In the end, he either gets the nomination (best case for him) or he gets a lot of news time which adds to his bottom line in speaking fees and business prospects. I think The Donald, Newt and Herman Cain were all working this as a business/publicity angle with the faint hope that it might actually turn into the presidency, which would be really, really good for business. It's a win-win.

[Chronos]

Many candidates may seem implausible until they actually run, like Ronald Reagan for instance (though he did have political experience before running).

The governor of the largest state in the country running for President isn't implausible at all. Now, if he had gone straight from actor to Presidential candidate, that'd be crazy, but that's not what he did. And obviously going from actor to governor isn't that implausible, either, given that at least three people have done it.

[Northern Piper]

Originally Posted by Chronos

Yes, Gingrich was a serious candidate. Speaker of the House is a reasonable stepping stone to the Presidency (though perhaps a bit of a stretch, compared with a governorship or the Senate). For comparison, a pizza company CEO or a reality show host are not serious candidates.

Has a Speaker or former Speaker ever been elected? I thought the only one to be elected President who had only been in the House was Garfield? was he Speaker?

[Marley23]

It's remarkable he made it as far as he did. I don't think he expected to. I think he ran to raise the profile of his think tanks and other initiatives, saw there was an opportunity for a Tea Party/anti-Romney candidate and went for it. He got some of that support, but through quirks of timing and luck, more of it went to Santorum and things just sort of petered out for him. His ceiling, I guess, was losing the way Santorum did. I don't think he ever had a shot to win, and neither did Santorum.

[Boyo Jim]

Garfield couldn't Speak. He was a cartoon cat, but still as qualified for the job as some of this round's Republican candidates.

[Little Nemo]

Originally Posted by Northern Piper

Has a Speaker or former Speaker ever been elected? I thought the only one to be elected President who had only been in the House was Garfield? was he Speaker?

The only Speaker to be elected President was Polk. Garner was elected Vice President. Garfield was never Speaker.

[Northern Piper]

Thanks - did not know that about Polk. Still, only one case of it happening in 220 years doesn't suggest the Speakership is a strong vaulting point for the Presidency.

[The Other Waldo Pepper]

Originally Posted by Northern Piper

I thought the only one to be elected President who had only been in the House was Garfield?

Well, there's Lincoln.

[Northern Piper]

sorry, I wasn't clear - I meant that Garfield was the only President elected while serving in the House. I see that Polk, for instance, wasn't in the House when he was elected, but Governor of Tennessee. Madision of course also served in the House, in the First Congress. But was there any Representative elected President, other that Garfield?

[Bryan Ekers]

There's still time - Newt could join the army, work his way up to four-star General.

[Little Nemo]

Originally Posted by Northern Piper

I see that Polk, for instance, wasn't in the House when he was elected, but Governor of Tennessee.

A nitpick, but Polk was not the Governor at the time he was elected President. His last day in office as Governor had been October 15, 1841 and he was elected President three years later in 1844.

[Little Nemo]

You could technically argue Ford would qualify. He was never a Governor or Senator. He was a thirteen-term Representative when he was appointed Vice President and then became President after Nixon's resignation.

[Northern Piper]

Originally Posted by Little Nemo

A nitpick, but Polk was not the Governor at the time he was elected President. His last day in office as Governor had been October 15, 1841 and he was elected President three years later in 1844.

You're right - I misread the wiki page - thanks!