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  #601  
Old 05-01-2012, 02:41 PM
Justin_Bailey Justin_Bailey is offline
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I'm looking to move up as well. And yes, the top three picks are going to be very interesting indeed.
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  #602  
Old 05-01-2012, 09:11 PM
VarlosZ VarlosZ is online now
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The 5th pick might be available for trade, though I have a sneaking suspicion that at least one guy I really covet will still be there.
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  #603  
Old 06-02-2012, 04:08 PM
SenorBeef SenorBeef is online now
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Yahoo put out their preseason ranks. (Link is top 200, but they have individual position ranks too).

Turns out I have 3 of the top 6 players - and 5 of the top 15.

Best QB, #3 and #4 RBs, #1, #2, and #5 TEs. WR is still my weakest, but #13 and #16 as a starting pair isn't too bad.

I'm surprised they ranked the tight ends so high. Graham is #14, Gronk is #15. It's not that they're wrong - they're right. It's just that much like actual football, fantasy football has a lot of people who follow conventional wisdom and intuitive feelings even when it's clearly wrong. And I'm guessing everyone is going to think "lol drafting a tight end at the top of round 2? lololol" for no logical reason.

Of course one of the fundamental principles that often seems to escape people is that high end production at the TE position is a lot more rare than the WR position. It's relatively easy to get an 1100 yard WR, but it's very rare to land a 1100 TE. So obviously the TE is inherently more valuable, and yet when it comes to what seems to be "common sense" to most people - they often value the WR in that situation higher, or at least equally. Makes no sense. Graham/Gronk are probably the most valuable receiving assets in the game - the fact that they put out WR1 numbers from the TE position makes them ridiculously valuable, since you can get more production out of tier 2 WR + one of them as compared to tier 1 WR + tier 2 TE.

The yahoo "experts" are at least savvy enough to realize this, which makes me wonder which will win out amongst the fantasy football masses: the counterintuitive idea that a tight end could be so valuable, or their strong desire to just absorb what the experts tell them without doing any thinking on their own?

They're reasonably optimistic about Demaryius Thomas, putting him ahead of guys like Colston, Maclin, Bryant, Britt, and Bowe. Brad Evans, who's probably the best of the bunch, puts him up at #9. I still think he's got a pretty decent shot at top 10.

My team is really coming together. Everyone is just coming into their prime - McCoy is likely to be my least long lived starter and he's still got a good 5 years ahead of him. Then again, the way he runs, he may even be able to squeeze out a longer career. Rodgers, Mathews, Nelson, Thomas, Gronk, Graham - they've all got 6+ years of good production ahead of them.

I'm again in the silly position of having 3 of the top 5 TEs and no one seems to want to take them. I offered up Gronk last year for almost nothing but no one was interested, so thanks to everyone for that. But I should move someone, it's sort of silly to have that sort of talent on my bench. So I'd like to move Finley, but I'd be comfortable with moving Gronk or Graham and going into the season with Finley as my #2 TE. Talk to me.

I think they're devaluing players too far due to injury. Jamal Charles, Kenny Britt, etc. are too low.

What do you guys think of their board?
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  #604  
Old 06-03-2012, 03:11 PM
dalej42 dalej42 is offline
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I'm really looking forward to this league next season. I've got a combination of the 1st draft pick as well as Drew Brees and Cam Newton available for trade. I won't make any moves until August but there will be some good trades in this league this year.
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  #605  
Old 06-11-2012, 11:54 AM
VarlosZ VarlosZ is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SenorBeef View Post
Of course one of the fundamental principles that often seems to escape people is that high end production at the TE position is a lot more rare than the WR position. It's relatively easy to get an 1100 yard WR, but it's very rare to land a 1100 TE. So obviously the TE is inherently more valuable, and yet when it comes to what seems to be "common sense" to most people - they often value the WR in that situation higher, or at least equally. Makes no sense. Graham/Gronk are probably the most valuable receiving assets in the game - the fact that they put out WR1 numbers from the TE position makes them ridiculously valuable, since you can get more production out of tier 2 WR + one of them as compared to tier 1 WR + tier 2 TE.

The yahoo "experts" are at least savvy enough to realize this, which makes me wonder which will win out amongst the fantasy football masses: the counterintuitive idea that a tight end could be so valuable, or their strong desire to just absorb what the experts tell them without doing any thinking on their own?
All of that is true, except there's a relevant factor that you're skipping: each team only needs 1 TE, so the scarcity of good ones isn't nearly as important so long as there are enough guys at the position who are within sniffing distance of the very best ones. Without having thought too hard about it, I'm guessing that Tony Gonzales and then Antonio Gates were more valuable than Graham/Gronk/etc. are now back when they were on their own little planet in terms of TE production. Now, with big-time receiving TEs somewhat in vogue, it's different: ok, you can pencil in Gronkowski for 1100/10, but if you could realistically figure the next seven guys for 800/7 or better, and it's a 12-team league...

It's really not much different than being able to put in a 1000/8 at WR3 instead of being thin at the position and having to scrounge around for a 650-5, to say nothing of whatever benefits the first guys gets from having the advantage in the WR1 and WR2 slots. This is not to say that the very best TEs aren't very valuable -- they are -- but if people are drafting them at the top of Round 2 I would suspect that they're making the mistake of viewing their 2011 stats in the context of the 2006 TE receiving environment.
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  #606  
Old 06-11-2012, 12:06 PM
Justin_Bailey Justin_Bailey is offline
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Originally Posted by VarlosZ View Post
This is not to say that the very best TEs aren't very valuable -- they are -- but if people are drafting them at the top of Round 2 I would suspect that they're making the mistake of viewing their 2011 stats in the context of the 2006 TE receiving environment.
Thumbs up. I agree with this analysis completely.
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  #607  
Old 06-11-2012, 05:39 PM
dalej42 dalej42 is offline
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Is the draft time of Sunday night Sept. 2 locked in or is that a placeholder? While I'm hoping to be on a new schedule by Sept, right now I work Sun-Thurs 11 PM-730 am Chicago time. I have to catch a train by 10 PM Central Time on Sunday nights.

I believe we did this draft on a Saturday night last year, that would work perfect for me as I'm sure I'm off on Saturdays since the futures markets are closed!
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  #608  
Old 06-11-2012, 10:01 PM
Ellis Dee Ellis Dee is online now
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You have to work on Labor Day?
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  #609  
Old 06-12-2012, 09:21 AM
VarlosZ VarlosZ is online now
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We can change the draft time, no problem. I just picked 9:30 9/2 because I figured it would be roughly the first one to fill up.

Does Saturday night work for everyone?
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  #610  
Old 06-12-2012, 09:35 AM
Really Not All That Bright Really Not All That Bright is offline
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I'm good with Saturday.
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  #611  
Old 06-12-2012, 10:06 AM
SenorBeef SenorBeef is online now
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Saturday probably works for me but I won't know for sure for a little while. I'd love to be able to say "don't worry about it, I can just pre-rank 50 players and be safe" except I did that last year and it didn't work. The autodrafter only picked my first preference, but randomly picked my other 2 ignoring my pre-rank list for no apparent reason (I didn't have any empty positions or anything)
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  #612  
Old 07-03-2012, 11:30 AM
SenorBeef SenorBeef is online now
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Is there any interest in doing a thread-draft this year instead of a live draft? I ask because this league has a short enough draft to make that practical, and because all of the other leagues tended to get the premium drafting times, this one ends up scheduling at odd time. And... the autodrafter doesn't work right (last year I drafted a kicker even though I already had one on the roster and I had like 20 guys rated ahead of any kicker on my pre-rank list - the computer just mysteriously ignored it). And making a drafting mistake (due to the autodrafter or missing the draft) is compounded by the nature of drafting in a dynasty league. If you miss the draft (or have technical issues with yahoo's draft app, like I did last year) it's can do years-long damage rather than just having one bad year in a regular league.

Since we'll only have a few dozen picks, I think it might be cool if we just handle the drafting through the thread and then Varlos can input the results. Plus it might be an interesting experiment to get discussion going and build suspense. What do you guys think?

Last edited by SenorBeef; 07-03-2012 at 11:31 AM..
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  #613  
Old 07-03-2012, 11:35 AM
Really Not All That Bright Really Not All That Bright is offline
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I love the idea, but I can't help thinking there will be someone who holds the whole thing up. What sort of time limit were you thinking about?
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  #614  
Old 07-03-2012, 11:42 AM
SenorBeef SenorBeef is online now
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Good question. We could do a casual, slow draft over a couple of weeks where each person has a few hours or even a day to submit their pick- but the issue there is that we probably want to see the rookies in action, so we don't want to miss too much of the preseason. On the other hand, the top picks are the guys most likely to see action early on in the preseason, so by the time we get to the tail end of the draft, we might be past week 3-4 anyway.

Or we could try to do something more rapid fire, where we all show up over a night or two and rattle off picks quickly. This isn't too much different from an actual live draft, except that we could submit a pre-rank list to Varlos and actually have him do it right if necesary. And it would be more practical to draft via smartphone if someone is busy but not too busy.

I'd like something closer to the first. Maybe a max limit of 1 day on each pick (at which point Varlos makes your pick with your pre-rank list, or just makes it based on some agreed-upon average draft position chart if you didn't submit one) but keeping in mind that we'll probably get 5-10 picks done per day.

Last edited by SenorBeef; 07-03-2012 at 11:43 AM..
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  #615  
Old 07-03-2012, 03:07 PM
Justin_Bailey Justin_Bailey is offline
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I really like it.

The autodrafter always seems to screw someone, this way certainly fixes that problem.
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  #616  
Old 07-03-2012, 06:37 PM
dalej42 dalej42 is offline
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I'm up for it as well, perhaps start right after week 3.
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  #617  
Old 07-03-2012, 11:44 PM
Stringer Stringer is online now
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I'm good with it but wary. We need some kind of time limit and a rule on what we do when time expires.
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  #618  
Old 07-04-2012, 07:37 AM
Justin_Bailey Justin_Bailey is offline
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Originally Posted by Stringer View Post
I'm good with it but wary. We need some kind of time limit and a rule on what we do when time expires.
I'd go with 12 hours, not 24, and I think we could easily recruit some non-Dynasty League fantasy player to make a pick from a pre-ranked list if the person doesn't show up.
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  #619  
Old 07-04-2012, 01:21 PM
Justin_Bailey Justin_Bailey is offline
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There were 59 picks in both of our previous drafts, so if we start on August 15 and give each team 12 hours to make their pick, we'd be done by September 14 at the latest (which is before the start of Week 2) if everyone used their full 12 hours. And we all know that's not going to happen.

Doing the draft in the forums would also give us more of a chance to make trades with a 12-24 hour window between picks.
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  #620  
Old 07-05-2012, 06:49 PM
SenorBeef SenorBeef is online now
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12 hours seems pretty reasonable, since we know some nights we'd get 6+ picks done. If someone knows they've got a pick coming up and they may miss it, they could always PM Varlos a few picks ahead of time. So if their pick is 4th up, but they may not be around the next day, they could just give him 4 names in order, and he can auto-pick for them.

If someone just dissapeared without submitting any preferences, we could just draft from the yahoo average draft position or something.
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  #621  
Old 07-07-2012, 10:05 AM
RetroVertigo RetroVertigo is offline
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I would love to do this. It would allow for more discussion on picks, and more time for trades to take place.
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  #622  
Old 07-07-2012, 11:25 AM
Really Not All That Bright Really Not All That Bright is offline
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Originally Posted by Stringer View Post
I'm good with it but wary. We need some kind of time limit and a rule on what we do when time expires.
If people have 12 hours, I see no reason to bother with pre-ranking. If you can't make your pick in that amount of time, that's your problem. We should do what the NFL does: put the next player on the clock, and let the guy who missed his pick make it when he makes it.
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  #623  
Old 07-07-2012, 12:50 PM
dalej42 dalej42 is offline
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How about starting around Saturday August 25 at 8 PM Eastern? The Redskins play the Colts at 4 PM EST, and I'm sure I'm not the only one interested in the Luck vs RGIII game. I've got the first pick, if I keep it, this would be a perfect time for me to make my 1st pick after watching this game.
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  #624  
Old 07-07-2012, 12:59 PM
SenorBeef SenorBeef is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Really Not All That Bright View Post
If people have 12 hours, I see no reason to bother with pre-ranking. If you can't make your pick in that amount of time, that's your problem. We should do what the NFL does: put the next player on the clock, and let the guy who missed his pick make it when he makes it.
I see no reason to put people in a bad position. Say they're going out for the weekend and only have intermittent internet access, their pick is up in 4 picks, and they have a good idea of who they want. Why put them in a position where they may have to inconvenience themselves when they could just fire off a quick prerank list of 4 players?

Plus it would keep the draft going faster for us - we wouldn't need 12 hours of dead air to know their intent.

The only downside is that Varlos would have the ability to see their intent early and snatch out a player in front of them, but I trust him not to look until the person's pick is due and if that's a big concern for anyone they could just choose never to submit a pre-rank list.

Last edited by SenorBeef; 07-07-2012 at 01:00 PM..
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  #625  
Old 07-07-2012, 01:46 PM
Justin_Bailey Justin_Bailey is offline
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Originally Posted by dalej42 View Post
How about starting around Saturday August 25 at 8 PM Eastern? The Redskins play the Colts at 4 PM EST, and I'm sure I'm not the only one interested in the Luck vs RGIII game. I've got the first pick, if I keep it, this would be a perfect time for me to make my 1st pick after watching this game.
I like this idea. Especially since the first round would probably move like lightning on Sunday.

And that would mean a final cut date of August 20 or so, yes?
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  #626  
Old 07-07-2012, 01:58 PM
dalej42 dalej42 is offline
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Aug 20 sounds like a good day for final cuts, 2 weeks of preseason done with.
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  #627  
Old 07-07-2012, 02:04 PM
SenorBeef SenorBeef is online now
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Those dates are good with me.
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  #628  
Old 07-14-2012, 02:18 AM
SenorBeef SenorBeef is online now
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How are we going to settle on the draft? Majority? 2/3rds? Unanimous? Would be good if everyone weighed in.
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  #629  
Old 07-14-2012, 09:49 AM
Really Not All That Bright Really Not All That Bright is offline
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Majority rules.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SenorBeef View Post
I see no reason to put people in a bad position. Say they're going out for the weekend and only have intermittent internet access, their pick is up in 4 picks, and they have a good idea of who they want. Why put them in a position where they may have to inconvenience themselves when they could just fire off a quick prerank list of 4 players?
That's different. I have no problem with somebody making a pick beforehand - listing their five choices for that pick, or whatever. I'm just saying that if somebody doesn't announce their choice beforehand the consequences should be theirs. Alternatively, they could just PM somebody else their pick.

Last edited by Really Not All That Bright; 07-14-2012 at 09:50 AM..
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  #630  
Old 07-14-2012, 11:37 AM
SenorBeef SenorBeef is online now
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That's what you seemed to be saying, ie if people aren't around to make their pick, they lose it. Allowing prerank lists speeds up the process and handles more contingencies.
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  #631  
Old 07-14-2012, 11:51 AM
Justin_Bailey Justin_Bailey is offline
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Originally Posted by Really Not All That Bright View Post
Majority rules.
We've already got 6/12 voting "yes," so we only need one more for majority rules.
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  #632  
Old 07-14-2012, 11:53 AM
Really Not All That Bright Really Not All That Bright is offline
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Originally Posted by SenorBeef View Post
That's what you seemed to be saying, ie if people aren't around to make their pick, they lose it. Allowing prerank lists speeds up the process and handles more contingencies.
I am saying that. However, I'm willing to allow people to make a shortlist in advance for a specific pick. "Prerank list" to me implies a full list of players; I think if we're doing a 12 hour window, people should have to actually make their picks, for the most part.
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  #633  
Old 07-14-2012, 11:59 AM
Justin_Bailey Justin_Bailey is offline
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Originally Posted by Really Not All That Bright View Post
I am saying that. However, I'm willing to allow people to make a shortlist in advance for a specific pick. "Prerank list" to me implies a full list of players; I think if we're doing a 12 hour window, people should have to actually make their picks, for the most part.
I think Beef's 4-5 pick prerank list would work fine. I even think you could do it in-thread as I think we're all pretty trustworthy. It could look like this...



My next pick is in four picks, if I'm not around, these are my prerank selections:

SPOILER:
Andrew Luck


SPOILER:
RG3


SPOILER:
Trent Richardson


SPOILER:
Justin Blackmon
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  #634  
Old 07-14-2012, 12:00 PM
Really Not All That Bright Really Not All That Bright is offline
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Yeah, I'm perfectly cool with that. I just think there should be a penalty for those who can't be arsed to show up for most of their picks. I mean, most of us will only be drafting 3-4 players anyway.
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  #635  
Old 07-14-2012, 07:27 PM
Stringer Stringer is online now
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I think if you don't post your pick in time you should lose it. A 12 hour window isn't long enough with in today's world of ubiquitous internet access?
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  #636  
Old 07-14-2012, 08:25 PM
SenorBeef SenorBeef is online now
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What's the motivation to be punishing? It hurts the person drafting, obviously, but it also hurts us - if a guy knows who he'll draft, we don't have to wait hours until he gets to his computer and it speeds the draft up. Otherwise we have to wait the 12 hours with no activity.

If someone isn't around for 12 hours and they don't submit a list, then yeah, they lose their pick - but allowing them the option of pre-submitting picks is win/win.
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  #637  
Old 07-14-2012, 08:30 PM
Stringer Stringer is online now
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I wasn't saying I was against pre-selecting picks I just don't want to make this too complicated.
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  #638  
Old 07-14-2012, 08:52 PM
Ellis Dee Ellis Dee is online now
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Let's just do a live draft in-thread. None of this 12 hour window crap, pick a time, we all show up, in 30 minutes we're done. Anyone missing the draft gets yahoo default ranking autopicks.
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  #639  
Old 07-14-2012, 08:54 PM
Stringer Stringer is online now
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That sounds better to me.
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  #640  
Old 07-14-2012, 09:08 PM
SenorBeef SenorBeef is online now
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You guys are all making it sound more complex than it ever was. Larger windows makes it more interesting, with more trade possibilities. People are raising non-issues and blowing them up as big concerns. It'll work fine as originally proposed.
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  #641  
Old 07-14-2012, 09:35 PM
Ellis Dee Ellis Dee is online now
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I check in to the dope around once or twice a week nowadays. I'm not really interested in having to check it multiple times a day for a couple weeks.

EDIT: Though that could easily change as football season and new fall tv season draws closer, which drives most of my posting interest anyway, so this particular objection is likely moot.

Last edited by Ellis Dee; 07-14-2012 at 09:36 PM..
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  #642  
Old 07-15-2012, 01:23 PM
furt furt is offline
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Originally Posted by SenorBeef View Post
Is there any interest in doing a thread-draft this year instead of a live draft?
Yes.

Last edited by furt; 07-15-2012 at 01:24 PM..
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  #643  
Old 07-15-2012, 01:25 PM
dalej42 dalej42 is offline
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I'm in complete support of a 12 hour window, online draft. I'm going to be in a trading mood, and they're going to be pretty big ones.
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  #644  
Old 07-15-2012, 02:32 PM
RetroVertigo RetroVertigo is offline
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Is it possible that not all keepers were assigned to their teams? Going through the player list I've noticed a few that I would think would have a team already.
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  #645  
Old 07-15-2012, 02:43 PM
Stringer Stringer is online now
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Ellis Dee hasn't signed up for the league yet so all his guys are listed as FAs.
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  #646  
Old 07-15-2012, 03:03 PM
RetroVertigo RetroVertigo is offline
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Thanks. Not as a deep draft as I first thought, I see...
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  #647  
Old 07-15-2012, 03:07 PM
VarlosZ VarlosZ is online now
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If folks are having in depth discussions of draft format changes, then clearly it's time for the new year's thread. And here it is.

Discussion should probably migrate over there.
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  #648  
Old 12-04-2012, 05:44 PM
VarlosZ VarlosZ is online now
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*** Year Three Trade Log ***

Edit: Discussion of these trades should go in the current (Year Four) league thread, so that the it's all in one place and so that this zombie doesn't clutter up the top of the forum. Thanks.

1) 8/19/11
Stringer sends:
QB David Garrard

RNATB sends:
Draft Pick #3.6 (WR Antonio Brown)
_________________________________

2) 9/3/11
dalej42 sends:
RB Beanie Wells

Hamlet sends:
Draft Pick #1.5 (QB Cam Newton)
_________________________________

3) 9/30/11
furt sends:
QB Andy Dalton

dalej42 sends:
QB Vince Young
_________________________________

4) 11/15/11
SenorBeef sends:
TE Tony Gonzalez

Omniscient sends:
WR Josh Cribbs
_________________________________

5) 11/18/11
RNATB sends:
WR Vincent Jackson

Justin Bailey sends:
QB Christian Ponder
RB Ben Tate
WR Jabar Gaffney
_________________________________

Last edited by VarlosZ; 12-04-2012 at 05:46 PM..
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