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  #1  
Old 05-05-2012, 03:19 PM
Zeldar Zeldar is online now
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Kentucky Derby -- anything with less bang for the buck? [Revisited]

Back in 2006 I had this to say about the race: Kentucky Derby -- anything with less bang for the buck? and had a variety of responses.

My opinion hasn't changed much. I will watch when the jockeys mount up and start the parade, and pick my winner from the names or colors or looks of the riders. Other than that, I just don't care.

You?
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  #2  
Old 05-05-2012, 04:11 PM
Take the cannoli Take the cannoli is offline
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FYI.....The winningest post position is #2 with 29 winners

Good luck with your pick.
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  #3  
Old 05-05-2012, 05:36 PM
Merneith Merneith is offline
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Really? You've started not one, but two, whole threads about how much you don't care?

I like Take Charge Indy. Best two minutes in sports.
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  #4  
Old 05-05-2012, 06:27 PM
Baker Baker is online now
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The horses are on their way to the starting post.
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  #5  
Old 05-05-2012, 06:29 PM
freckafree freckafree is offline
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I was going to pick Hansen (based on looks) until I heard the interview with his goofball owner. Now I'm going with Sabercat, following a long tradition w/ my sisters of picking horses with "cat" in their name.
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  #6  
Old 05-05-2012, 06:31 PM
Baker Baker is online now
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And they're off!
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  #7  
Old 05-05-2012, 06:34 PM
Baker Baker is online now
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I'll Have Another!
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  #8  
Old 05-05-2012, 06:34 PM
notfrommensa notfrommensa is online now
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Just before the race, I noted the odds on each horse (by number):

Code:
1	…	24/1
2	…	40/1
3	…	11/1
4	…	9/2
5	…	11/1
6	…	5/1
7	…	38/1
8	…	12/1
9	…	43/1
10	…	13/1
11	…	18/1
12	…	55/1
13	…	29/1
14	…	14/1
15	…	8/1
16	…	28/1
17	…	37/1
18	…	36/1
19	…	14/1
20	…	53/1
This works to 18.8% Vigorish. Seems awfully high. Is that typical at racetracks?
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  #9  
Old 05-05-2012, 06:37 PM
Baker Baker is online now
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You know what's a real shame about some winners? They're geldings! If you win the Kentucky Derby you should be able to retire to a life of one night stands with well-bred females.

I don't know about the status of I'll Have Another, for his sake I hope he's intact!
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  #10  
Old 05-05-2012, 06:40 PM
notfrommensa notfrommensa is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Baker View Post
I don't know about the status of I'll Have Another, for his sake I hope he's intact!
So do the descendants of Catherine the Great!

Last edited by notfrommensa; 05-05-2012 at 06:41 PM..
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  #11  
Old 05-05-2012, 07:30 PM
Merneith Merneith is offline
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I'm pretty sure that I'll Have Another is intact. I haven't seen anything that suggests otherwise and gelding is really the exception, not the rule, on a top stakes thoroughbred. But he's not retiring - he's heading for Pimlico and the Preakness Stakes, two weeks from today.

notfrommensa - those odds reflect a few different factors which aren't true of most races.

A) there wasn't really a strong favorite this year, so the betting was pretty spread out.
B) the Kentucky Derby always has twenty horses racing - most races have less than ten. That means the Derby always has more longshot entries than usual.
C) The Derby also attracts more betters than usual, from a huge crowd of people most of whom never look at a horse from one year to the next. The odds tend to be all over the place, unless there's a clear favorite, who sometimes gets bet down to even money.
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  #12  
Old 05-05-2012, 09:33 PM
Ellen Cherry Ellen Cherry is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Baker View Post
You know what's a real shame about some winners? They're geldings! If you win the Kentucky Derby you should be able to retire to a life of one night stands with well-bred females.

I don't know about the status of I'll Have Another, for his sake I hope he's intact!
They geld some because it's the only way to get them to settle down, train and run. But its a crap shoot because there's certainly a ton to be made in stud fees. Look at Storm Cat. At one time he commanded $500,000 a stud fee; $10,000 is usually considered pretty whopping.
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  #13  
Old 05-05-2012, 09:45 PM
notfrommensa notfrommensa is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ellen Cherry View Post
They geld some because it's the only way to get them to settle down, train and run. But its a crap shoot because there's certainly a ton to be made in stud fees. Look at Storm Cat. At one time he commanded $500,000 a stud fee; $10,000 is usually considered pretty whopping.
If they have to {ahem} geld them early, do they take some samples?

Just in case they become Derby winners, (or Preakness, or Belmont).
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  #14  
Old 05-05-2012, 09:58 PM
notfrommensa notfrommensa is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Merneith View Post
notfrommensa - those odds reflect a few different factors which aren't true of most races.

A) there wasn't really a strong favorite this year, so the betting was pretty spread out.
B) the Kentucky Derby always has twenty horses racing - most races have less than ten. That means the Derby always has more longshot entries than usual.
C) The Derby also attracts more betters than usual, from a huge crowd of people most of whom never look at a horse from one year to the next. The odds tend to be all over the place, unless there's a clear favorite, who sometimes gets bet down to even money.
Well, the quoted odds just prior to race time was 14/1 for the winner, but he payed 32.60 so the actual odds were a little more than 15/1.

So maybe the posted odds are a little conservative.

I am not a bookmaker, but I do understand paramutual betting. If there is 100,000 dollars to be given out and 10,000 was bet on Mister Ed, and if Mister Ed wins, he is going to pay 10/1.

But overall, the odds seemed a little short. anything over 15% Vig seems excessive, considering the Vigorish on Roulette is 5.26%. It shouldn't matter that their was no definitive favorite
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  #15  
Old 05-05-2012, 10:04 PM
Walkabout Walkabout is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by notfrommensa View Post
If they have to {ahem} geld them early, do they take some samples?

Just in case they become Derby winners, (or Preakness, or Belmont).
It wouldn't do any good. Artificial insemination is not allowed for thoroughbred racehorses. In order to be registered a foal must be the product of a physical breeding.
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  #16  
Old 05-05-2012, 10:05 PM
Eureka Eureka is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by notfrommensa View Post
If they have to {ahem} geld them early, do they take some samples?

Just in case they become Derby winners, (or Preakness, or Belmont).
Not much point--Thoroughbreds (the type of horse that races in the Kentucky Derby) must be the result of live cover.

I won't say there's no market for frozen sperm from really good thoroughbreds, but the real money isn't just for being a winner of the Kentucky Derby, it's for horses that demonstrate good ability to pass on their speed.
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  #17  
Old 05-05-2012, 10:06 PM
Ellen Cherry Ellen Cherry is offline
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That's true. And there's a whole roomful of people watching the action to make sure it all goes off without a hitch.
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  #18  
Old 05-05-2012, 11:09 PM
notfrommensa notfrommensa is online now
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So a freak of nature foal is not eligible to be a Kentucky Derby Champion? Even if he proves to be the best horse possible?

This is an objective competition. Fastest horse wins.

if we were talking about Humans, wouldn't this be racist?
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  #19  
Old 05-05-2012, 11:25 PM
Silvorange Silvorange is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Zeldar View Post
Back in 2006 I had this to say about the race: Kentucky Derby -- anything with less bang for the buck? and had a variety of responses.

My opinion hasn't changed much. I will watch when the jockeys mount up and start the parade, and pick my winner from the names or colors or looks of the riders. Other than that, I just don't care.

You?
It's not all about the race, though. There are all kinds of events leading up to it for a couple of weeks: a huge fireworks and air show, a hot air balloon race, a steamboat race, a mini-marathon, concerts, a parade, and parties attended by celebrities. Some local nuns have a Turtle Derby and one university has the Running of the Rodents (I had a rat in it one year, but lost ). There's all kinds of stuff going on. I'm not a big partyer or anything, but two weeks of holiday atmosphere culminating in a sporting event that I can follow without getting bored or confused? Sounds good to me.
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  #20  
Old 05-06-2012, 07:26 AM
Ellen Cherry Ellen Cherry is offline
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Don't forget a month of racing over here in Lexington preceding it!
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  #21  
Old 05-06-2012, 08:34 AM
Telemark Telemark is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by notfrommensa View Post
So a freak of nature foal is not eligible to be a Kentucky Derby Champion? Even if he proves to be the best horse possible?

This is an objective competition. Fastest horse wins.

if we were talking about Humans, wouldn't this be racist?
Requiring racehorses to be a result of live cover doesn't seem to meet any of the criteria you just wrote.
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  #22  
Old 05-06-2012, 08:39 AM
freckafree freckafree is offline
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Originally Posted by Ellen Cherry View Post
Don't forget a month of racing over here in Lexington preceding it!
I loves me some Keanland!
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  #23  
Old 05-06-2012, 08:46 AM
Munch Munch is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by notfrommensa View Post
if we were talking about Humans, wouldn't this be racist?
No, it'd be eugenics.
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  #24  
Old 05-06-2012, 09:41 AM
RealityChuck RealityChuck is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by notfrommensa View Post
Just before the race, I noted the odds on each horse (by number):

Code:
P

1		24/1
2		40/1
3		11/1
4		9/2
5		11/1
6		5/1
7		38/1
8		12/1
9		43/1
10		13/1
11		18/1
12		55/1
13		29/1
14		14/1
15		8/1
16		28/1
17		37/1
18		36/1
19		14/1
20		53/1
This works to 18.8% Vigorish. Seems awfully high. Is that typical at racetracks?
Unless they changed it recently, standard takeout is 15%. The rest is rounding error. The posted odds are always an approximation in parimutuel betting, and they can even change slightly after the race starts as the final bets are tabulated.
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