How are your Congressional elections going?

[foolsguinea]

Enough about the Presidency. Who's running for legislative office in your local districts?

[Enderw24]

Are you talking at the state level or still national?

Congressman Emanuel Cleaver is running in the MO-5 where I live. There are I think four Republicans vying to run against him. Jacob Turk will probably get the nomination and lose to Cleaver by around 20 points like he has the last two times he tried.

State level there's a ton of activity. I could probably bore you with the details of about a dozen districts around the Kansas City area if you're so interested, but I don't think you are.

[foolsguinea]

See, I know nothing about Mr Turk, but I admire his doggedness. In my congressional district, it seems like we get a new unknown candidate as challenger every election, and then he disappears.

[Frank]

I posted the following over in this thread about a month and a half ago. At this point, I haven't changed my thinking.

---

One of the seats in Colorado will positively not switch back. Redistricting has made it safer for Gardner. (And frankly, I never expected a Democrat to hold CO-04 even if they hadn't changed it. Betsy Markey's two years should mostly be applauded for the highly desirable effect of disposing of Marilyn Musgrave.)

And, in fairness, the changes that made CO-04 safer for a Republican--the move of Fort Collins from the 4th to the 2nd) also made CO-02 safer for the Democrat incumbent Polis.

CO-03, the seat that Salazar lost to a Republican in '10, could change back. It didn't change much, still covering a vast swathe of the southern and western part of the state, including about 20% Hispanic. But it might not change back; it's still closely aligned among the parties. Tipton does seem to be well liked. We'll see.

CO-05, and CO-07 are more competitive now, but I doubt the incumbents Lamborn(R) and Perlmutter(D) will lose.

And, of course, DeGette(D) and Coffman(R) are locks in CO-01 and CO-06, respectively.

In short, those of us hoping for a new Democratic majority in the House shouldn't expect more than one seat gained in Colorado, if that.

[Jack Batty]

I'll most probably be throwing a vote to Angus King (I) come November for him to fill Olympia Snowe's seat.

This is the first Senate election in more than a decade where I don't automatically know my guy is going to lose.

[Enderw24]

Oh yeah, Missouri as a whole it's fairly likely we'll lose a D seat. Not that the Republicans will pick one up. Redistricting meant that we lost a seat going from 9 down to 8. Currently there are 6 R's and 3 D's (1 in KCMO and 2 in St. Louis).

There was some heated debates down in the legislature as they hashed this out. Eventually a deal was struck which would essentially pit the two St. Louis incumbants against each other. On a numbers scale, this seems unfair as Missouri is fairly evenly split in terms of R and D and 5/3 would be much more representative of the populace than 6/2. But there was enough backdoor dealing by the Democrats of all people to arrive at the new map we have today.

Oh and there were redistricting lawsuits at the Congressional level, the state Senate and state Legislature. Congress went nowhere. Senate map got overturned by the Supreme Court and some last minute dealings put a new one together before the filing deadline. The Legislature's lawsuit is still awaiting a decision from the Supreme Court.

[Jophiel]

Illinois redistricting means my current Congressman won't be my next Congressman no matter what. Which is fine with me because, aside from a rubber stamp on the GOP agenda, Rep. Kinzinger has been worthless for my district. God help the people wherever he winds up.

Post redistricting, we have Bill Foster as the likely Democrat with a couple primary challengers vs. Judy Biggert (R) who has no opposition due to her challenger being thrown off the ballot, I believe. Foster won Dennis Hastert's old district after Hastert's 2007 resignation but lost it in 2010. Biggert's been serving the old 13th district since 1998. I don't think anyone's attempted to take a reading of how the race may shake out.

[BrainGlutton]

Florida's 11th District is represented by Democrat Kathy Castor, who is solidly popular AFAIK. According to Ballotpedia, the only Pub in the field so far is Richard B. Nugent, who already represents the 5th District -- it's a redistricting thing. Anyway, filing deadline is May 7, primary is August 14. If nobody else pops up, then the election presumably will be a mighty Clash of the Incumbents, well-funded and well-connected on both sides, not easy to call.

[mkecane]

As far as I know, Jim Sensenbrenner (R) will be running again for the House, and has the seat virtually as long as he wants. I don't think he's gone under 60% in his life as a career politician.

The US Senate seat is being vacated by Herb Kohl (D), and the main Democratic candidate is Tammy Baldwin, former US Rep from the Madison area, I believe. The Republicans are Tommy Thompson; one of the Fitzgerald boys (2 brothers are majority leaders in the WI legislature, one for the Senate, the other for the Assembly); Mark Neumann, who seems to lose a Republican primary every few years; and a new candidate who announced yesterday, who happens to be a hedge fund manager and has lived in DC for the last 24 years. He's running as the "citizen" candidate. Sure, buddy.

[Enderw24]

Interesting news for Wisconsin, mkecane. I predict it'll be Thompson and Baldwin to make it through the primaries and I'd be rooting for Baldwin.

[suranyi]

Democrat Pete Stark will run again in our district. I think he's 80 years old now. He will win in a landslide, as usual. But I think this may be his last term. The rumor is that he's thinking of retiring. There's been a lot of background noise among local Democratic party officials about who might succeed him in this absolute guaranteed Democratic seat.

[dropzone]

I just noticed that Tammy Duckworth is giving it another shot against Peter Roskam after having lost by a mere 2% a few cycles ago. I don't know who else is in the primary, but a sensible Dem would be out the moment she announced because -2% by a Dem around here is a virtual win.

ETA: They redrew the district and she won't represent me? Well, as long as she beats that idiot Joe Walsh I'm happy, but now somebody's going to get creamed by Roskam, who hasn't fucked up too badly.

[Lord Feldon]

My new district is heavily Republican, and the Republican incumbent in the equivalent district (which expanded to include me after its Columbus Democrats were packed instead of cracked) is expected to win. The Democratic primary was contested, and as far as I could tell, one candidate's platform was based on grammar and the other candidate's was not. Thankfully, grammar won, so at least it won't be painful to watch. (The anti-grammar candidate had experience, though. He lost to another Republican incumbent in a landslide in 2010.)

[Nametag]

I live in California's 8th district (12th, after redistricting), represented by former Speaker Nancy Pelosi. California is represented by two Democratic senators and 53 representatives, 34 Democrats and 18 Republicans. Senator Dianne Feinstein should walk away with re-election this year. With the redistricting, it's hard to tell which way some districts will swing; most of the incumbents running this year look pretty safe, though the Democrats may pick up a couple of seats.

[Fear Itself]

The First District in New Hampshire has seen some announcements recently by Democrats seeking to challenge the Republican incumbent, Frank Guinta, including Matthew Hancock, a software developer for Liberty Mutual in Dover, as well as:

...former U.S. Rep. Carol Shea-Porter, who held the seat for two terms from 2006-2010; Andrew Hosmer, a Laconia business owner and former candidate for state Senate; and Joanne Dowdell, a former executive at a socially responsible investing company who has been active in the Democratic National Committee.

I was not a a big Shea-Porter fan when she was in office, so I will be looking closely at the the new faces.

[Least Original User Name Ever]

I live in Michigan's 11th District, currently represented by Thaddeus McCotter (R). He's being opposed by a physician, Dr. Syed Taj (D).

[Jas09]

I'm not even sure where I ended up. I was in the old MO-3 (Russ Carnahan's seat) which got drawn out. Russ is now running aginst William Lacy Clay in the first, leading to some pretty bad blood.

Looking at the new maps it's actually really hard to tell if I'm now in the 1st or the 2nd (which means either solid Dem or solid GOP). Does anybody have a more detailed website than this one: http://www.mdn.org/2011/data/cmap2.htm

On Edit: Actually looks like a look-up on the SOS website puts me in the first. So I guess I get to vote for Russ again at least once.

[Ruby Slippers]

I'm in Ohio's 8th Congressional district, which is owned by John Boehner. I believe he had some token opposition in the Republican primary, but there was no one on the Democratic ballot for that seat. The Senate race is a different story. The incumbent is Sherrod Brown, a progressive Democrat. He's facing a challenge from the Republican state treasurer, Josh Mandel, and things will probably get quite nasty.

[Happy Lendervedder]

I'm and SE Michigan, and I'm not sure if I'm going to end up in Dingell's or Conyers' district. I was in Dingell's for most of my life, but for the last 10 years I've been in Conyers'. I'm hoping to be back in Dingell's. That's if he officially decides to run again.

[t-bonham@scc.net]

I live in Mn-5, a fqirly solid Democratic district (basically Minneapolis + some suburbs).

The interesting part is that our incumbent Keith Ellison is being challenged in the Democratic battle, by a guy who's quite right-wing and seems to belong much more in the Republican party.

Apparently, even he doesn't think he has much chance against Ellison. He's just in the race to get some commercials on the air. Seems a radical anti-abortion group has some very explicit commercials that they would like to air, but the TV stations are refusing (on the basis of taste; they think these ads would offend their viewers) to show them. But TV stations are required to show ads for political candidates. So this guy is running for Congress, just so his pro-life group can get their ads shown on TV. Should be an interesting campaign.

[BrainGlutton]

Originally Posted by BrainGlutton

Florida's 11th District is represented by Democrat Kathy Castor, who is solidly popular AFAIK. According to Ballotpedia, the only Pub in the field so far is Richard B. Nugent, who already represents the 5th District -- it's a redistricting thing. Anyway, filing deadline is May 7, primary is August 14. If nobody else pops up, then the election presumably will be a mighty Clash of the Incumbents, well-funded and well-connected on both sides, not easy to call.

Correction: Kathy Castor is running for the newly-redrawn 14th District. "On March 30, 2012 the National Journal released a list of the top ten most contorted congressional districts, as a result of redistricting. [1] The 14th district was included in the list.[1]" But she won't be facing an incumbent -- the Republican incumbent is Connie Mack, but he is not running for re-election, he is running for the Senate instead.

[waterj2]

I'm definitely voting for Elizabeth Warren for Senate. I'd vote for Mike Capuano for Representative, but I'm being redistricted into Steven Lynch's district (across the street from the line, goddamit). They'll both win in landslides, assuming they're even being opposed. But I think I'd rather just leave it blank rather than vote for a pro-life candidate.

[etv78]

Originally Posted by waterj2

I'm definitely voting for Elizabeth Warren for Senate. I'd vote for Mike Capuano for Representative, but I'm being redistricted into Steven Lynch's district (across the street from the line, goddamit). They'll both win in landslides, assuming they're even being opposed. But I think I'd rather just leave it blank rather than vote for a pro-life candidate.

I'm voting the same way. (Though I've always lived in Lynch's district, and am pro-life myself)

[jebert]

The superPACs are slamming Missouri's Senator Claire McCaskill HARD with a barrage of negative TV ads. Three Republicans are vying for the Senate nomination, to be decided in the August primary. McCaskill has a few "down home girl" ads running so far; I'm waiting for something with a bit more edge.

I believe this Senate race will be a lot closer than the presidential vote in Missouri, which has been trending more and more Republican in recent years.

[Drum God]

My Congressman is Democrat Lloyd Doggett, but he is being gerrymandered away from us. In fact, as Doggett himself has noted, he has represented most of Texas at one time or another. The legislature keeps trying to get him a district where he won't be reelected, but they can't quite get it done. In 2010, Doggett lost every county in his district except Travis. But, his portion of Travis County has more people than all his other counties combined, he won reelection easily. Now, they've moved him to the West side of Austin extending down into wealthy suburbs of San Antonio, in hopes of getting him primaried out of office. His Democratic challenger was well-respected, but she lost. Doggett will probably win in his new district and live on to continue to be a thorn in Rick Perry's side. Good for him. My new Congressman will be some GOP rubberstamp.

In the Senate, our senior Senator, Kay Bailey Hutchison (R), is retiring. The Democrats are putting up Paul Sadler, but he has to get through a run-off election with a San Antonio school teacher who has run repeatedly on the Republican ticket. Sadler will likely get the nom, but he's not going to win the election. Meanwhile, the GOP has David Dewhurst, our current Lieutenant Governor, in a run-off with Ted Cruz, an attorney and Tea Party favorite. Dewhurst will win, but Cruz is going to make him work for it. Hopefully, Cruz can get him to spend so much of his money that he won't have enough to run against Sadler in November. Not likely, but I can dream. Dewhurst has TONS of money in his war-chest. TONS! The Lt. Gov is where the real power is in Texas government. Dewhurst is nobody to get excited about, but he isn't totally evil. He reminds me of Hutchison, actually. He'll go with the GOP flow, but he won't be too horrible. Our other Senator, John Cornyn (R), is lots worse.

[Chronos]

Montana should be interesting, since the state's lone Representative, Denny Rehberg (R) is challenging incumbent Jon Tester (D) for the Senate. Both are pretty popular, and Rehberg has a lot more experience behind him, but so far Tester seems to have a strong lead in the advertising. Meanwhile, Rehberg hasn't had a serious challenger for his House seat for as long as I've been here (in 2008 his opponent literally didn't even spend a cent on his campaign), but with him pursuing the Senate, he's resigning from the House, so that race is pretty open, too.

[dropzone]

Originally Posted by dropzone

I just noticed that Tammy Duckworth is giving it another shot ...

And the real Joe Walsh has endorsed her over Joe Walsh, the Tea Partier.

Rep. Walsh's campaign dismissed the guitarist's announcement Tuesday.

"Is anyone really surprised when Tammy gets support from the liberal entertainment industry?" said Christian Morgan, a spokesman for Rep. Walsh. "Tammy can have the support of the 'Hotel California' liberal elite. Congressman Walsh is more concerned with getting the support of hardworking families from the 8th District."

I have lived in what is now the 8th District for most of my life and I am fairly sure I am one of the few likely voters under 65 who does not own "Hotel California." This could be a wrong battle for the fake Joe to fight or even comment on.

[Iggy]

I live overseas but vote in SC which was my last US residence.

I laughed mightily when some political pundits initially marked SC as a toss up state in the presidential race. SC is a pretty red state overall even though there are a few blue congressional districts. My died-in-the-wool Democrat mother is giving up and making the drive to NC to help there.

Neither SC Senator is up for re-election. Jim Demint has 4 more years. Lindsey Graham has 2 more.

Governor is not up for election either. Nikki Haley has a couple more years before she faces the ballot box.

That leaves SC-03 where Jeff Duncan-R is facing Brian Doyle-D. Duncan is expected to walk away with it easily.