Syria: Is there any way this can end well?

[Alessan]

Originally Posted by Magiver

We could do a "Libya light" and insert the CIA to remove the Syrian assets used against civilians. Not quite the full Monty but enough for the Syrian heads of state to do the math.

The "assets used against civilians" are the Syrian Army. How do you propose to remove them?

[BrainGlutton]

Manaf Tlas, a Syrian general close to Assad, just defected.

[Magiver]

Originally Posted by Alessan

The "assets used against civilians" are the Syrian Army. How do you propose to remove them?

Insert CIA with weapons.

Step 1 - point weapons at hard assets
Step 2 - pull trigger

When you take away tanks, helicopters and other hard assets then what you're left with are soldiers with guns. That makes it a numbers game. Which is what happened in Libya.

[Alessan]

Matters seem to be approaching some sort of an endgame.

[John Mace]

Originally Posted by Alessan

Matters seem to be approaching some sort of an endgame.

Are any refugees trying to get into Israel? What's Israel's policy about that?

Are you being affected at all by this?

[Alessan]

The border between Israel and Syria is a wartime border, and is one of the most strongly-defended and closely watched frontiers in the world; no-one is getting through unless Israel lets them, and Israel isn't letting them. It's not that anyone really wants to, anyway, and besides, the entire area between Damascus and the Golan is essentially a military zone, where the Syrian Army traditionally keeps the bulk of its armored forces. It's the worst possible direction a refugee could run.

As for how it's affecting us - it isn't for now, but I hope the people upstairs are keeping a very close watch on Syria's long-range missiles and on its chemical and biological arsenal. The situation can go from "normal" to "oh crap" in 120 seconds.

[John Mace]

Thanks. Nice to get the inside scoop. Stay safe. I guess you guys have lots of practice at that.

[BrainGlutton]

Originally Posted by Magiver

Insert CIA with weapons.

Step 1 - point weapons at hard assets
Step 2 - pull trigger

When you take away tanks, helicopters and other hard assets then what you're left with are soldiers with guns. That makes it a numbers game. Which is what happened in Libya.

This is a whoosh, right? Because I really don't think the CIA is equipped or has agents trained for a tank-destroying op. You'd need some kind of military special-forces team for that.

[Der Trihs]

Originally Posted by BrainGlutton

This is a whoosh, right? Because I really don't think the CIA is equipped or has agents trained for a tank-destroying op.

They have missile armed drones.

[Alessan]

And Syria has air defenses that can take them out easily. Drones are useful against terrorists, not armies.

[Der Trihs]

Originally Posted by Alessan

And Syria has air defenses that can take them out easily.

I know that. I was just answering BrainGlutton's query about if the CIA actually had the capability to blow up tanks.

[BrainGlutton]

Originally Posted by Alessan

The border between Israel and Syria is a wartime border, and is one of the most strongly-defended and closely watched frontiers in the world; no-one is getting through unless Israel lets them, and Israel isn't letting them. It's not that anyone really wants to, anyway, and besides, the entire area between Damascus and the Golan is essentially a military zone, where the Syrian Army traditionally keeps the bulk of its armored forces. It's the worst possible direction a refugee could run.

What about west? Could a Syrian refugee conceivably reach safety by running to (of all places!) Lebanon?

[Alessan]

Originally Posted by BrainGlutton

What about west? Could a Syrian refugee conceivably reach safety by running to (of all places!) Lebanon?

According to this Wiki cite - which is arguably accurate and definitely not up-to-date - there are some 26,000 Syrian refugees in Lebanon.

The problem with running to Lebanon is that it's under the de facto control of Hezbollah, which is a close ally of the Assad regime. Still, any port in a storm.

[Inbred Mm domesticus]

North is a popular direction for Syrian refugees and Turkey continually builds new camps. No shitty Hezbollah either.

[BrainGlutton]

Israeli airstrike on Syria. (So says the Syrian government -- the Israeli has no comment.)

The Syrian military says Israeli jets have carried out an air strike on its territory, but denied reports that lorries carrying weapons bound for Lebanon were hit.

It said in a statement that the target was a military research centre northwest of the capital Damascus.

Two people were killed and five injured in the attack, it said.

Lebanese security sources, Western diplomats and Syrian rebels say an arms convoy was hit near Lebanon's border.

The attack came as Israel voiced fears that Syrian missiles and chemical weapons could fall into the hands of militants such as Lebanon's Hezbollah.

BBC Middle East correspondent Wyre Davies says none of the reports can be verified, although some well-placed diplomats and military sources say they would not be surprised if Israel had acted, given the recent instability in Syria.

Israel and the US have declined to comment on the incident.

[Alessan]

Yeah, this was bound to happen sooner or later.

[ralph124c]

Why is Iran all buddy-buddy with Assad now? Assad is a secular dictator, Ahmadinejad a militant islamist. Assad's fall could be a good thing as far as weakening Iran goes.

[BrainGlutton]

Originally Posted by Alessan

Yeah, this was bound to happen sooner or later.

Why? What's the point? Do the Israelis really believe they can intervene in Syria in any way that won't make things worse? The U.S. could, just maybe perhaps if everything breaks just exactly perfectly right and we have a huge dose of luck and divine intervention; but Israel can't, because almost all factions in Syria hate Israel as a matter of non-negotiable principle. Is it not so?

Besides, it's news to me that Israel has even picked a side in this war. Assad is the devil you know, you know.

[carnivorousplant]

Originally Posted by BrainGlutton

Why? What's the point? Do the Israelis really believe they can intervene in Syria in any way that won't make things worse?

I imagine they were worried about having their citizens shot at.

[chappachula]

Originally Posted by BrainGlutton

Besides, it's news to me that Israel has even picked a side in this war.

Israel hasn't picked a side.
It attacked the hardware, regardless of who owned it.

The air force grabbed a chance to destroy some very, very dangerous weapons that were being moved openly, before they could be pointed at Israel.
Those weapons may have been unused and in storage for the past 20 years...but as soon as anybody (and it doesn't matter who) takes them out of storage, then the rules of the game have changed.

[Alessan]

What he said.

Israel doesn't need to pick a side in this war - it is a side in this war, namely the side that's opposed to Hezbollah (and Iran). If Hezbollah is taking steps to acquire advanced weapon systems, Israel will take actions to prevent this.

The Syrian Civil War hasn't expanded to include Israel; rather, the Israeli-Hezbollah conflict has expanded to include the Syrian Civil War.

[Terr]

Originally Posted by BrainGlutton

Why? What's the point? Do the Israelis really believe they can intervene in Syria in any way that won't make things worse? The U.S. could, just maybe perhaps if everything breaks just exactly perfectly right and we have a huge dose of luck and divine intervention; but Israel can't, because almost all factions in Syria hate Israel as a matter of non-negotiable principle. Is it not so?

Besides, it's news to me that Israel has even picked a side in this war. Assad is the devil you know, you know.

Where did Israel pick a side? Israel bombed a weapons convoy that was going to Hezbullah. Which "side" is that?

[BrainGlutton]

Originally Posted by Terr

Where did Israel pick a side? Israel bombed a weapons convoy that was going to Hezbullah. Which "side" is that?

Who knows? The Syrian government says Israel bombed a military research facility, not a convoy. The Israeli government says nothing.

[Rune]

The EU wants to arm the rebel groups in the belief that they can contain the weapons only to those rebel groups that are peace loving, western orientated, secular, fighting for democracy and women’s rights. No chance that’s going to happen. At this point the rebels have been so thoroughly infected or taken over by islamists that they on the whole are worse than Assad. If anything we should send more bombs to Assad. But really we should stay the hell away. There are no good sides, and nothing good is going to come of it. If the rebels win Christians and Alawites are going to be cleansed. If we really want to do something we could go in and set up safe zones like during the Bosnian wars. Only it didn’t work so well at that time.

[BrainGlutton]

Originally Posted by Rune

At this point the rebels have been so thoroughly infected or taken over by islamists that they on the whole are worse than Assad.

How do you know that?

[Magiver]

Originally Posted by ralph124c

Why is Iran all buddy-buddy with Assad now? Assad is a secular dictator, Ahmadinejad a militant islamist. Assad's fall could be a good thing as far as weakening Iran goes.

because they send serious military arms used against Israel through Syria as part of their proxy-war.

[BrainGlutton]

"Syria warns Israel of 'surprise' retaliation".

Well, you just went and spoiled the surprise, dumbass!

[carnivorousplant]

Originally Posted by BrainGlutton

"Syria warns Israel of 'surprise' retaliation".

Well, you just went and spoiled the surprise, dumbass!

Good help is hard to find.

[Der Trihs]

Originally Posted by BrainGlutton

"Syria warns Israel of 'surprise' retaliation".

Well, you just went and spoiled the surprise, dumbass!

"Israeli Leader kidnapped by the Syrian Inquisition. 'No one expected the Syrian Inquisition' says government representative."

[HurricaneDitka]

I figure as long as they're fighting each other, they can't invest a lot of time in planning ways to harm Israelis or Americans, so ... keep it up fellas.

[Rune]

Originally Posted by HurricaneDitka

I figure as long as they're fighting each other, they can't invest a lot of time in planning ways to harm Israelis or Americans, so ... keep it up fellas.

Apropos Will Syria Bleed Hezbollah Dry?

- unfortunately that is seldom how the world works. Instead they'll spread instability, lawlessness and conflict, and Islamists and terrorists (many of the foreigners) trained in the Syrian conflict will take their skills to new battlegrounds. In ten years time we'll see terrorists acts in the USA or Europe masterminded and carried out by terrorist groups established by rebels in Syria. And if the USA intervenes in any way, we'll be sure to hear no end to how the USA created the terrorist group, in the same way that they created Al Qaeda, the Taliban, etc. Keep out. There is no upside for you.

[ralph124c]

Originally Posted by Rune

Apropos Will Syria Bleed Hezbollah Dry?

- unfortunately that is seldom how the world works. Instead they'll spread instability, lawlessness and conflict, and Islamists and terrorists (many of the foreigners) trained in the Syrian conflict will take their skills to new battlegrounds. In ten years time we'll see terrorists acts in the USA or Europe masterminded and carried out by terrorist groups established by rebels in Syria. And if the USA intervenes in any way, we'll be sure to hear no end to how the USA created the terrorist group, in the same way that they created Al Qaeda, the Taliban, etc. Keep out. There is no upside for you.

I think you are largely correct. If the USA, or GB intervened, they would become the "bad guy" within a week. By staying out, the USA can actually benefit:
-Syria may well break up along ethnic/religious lines-that will keep the islamists busy fighting eachother
-the breakup of Syria may well encourage the breakup of Iraq (the Kurds want their own country)
TE Lawrence accurately forecast this turn of events over 80 years ago. Versailles and its nation building decrees is long gone, the big question is: what will the ME look like in 10-20 years time?

[Rune]

Much of the fighting at this point is between different groups of rebels. Mainly between Islamists and Kurds. The Turks – having a special dislike for the Kurds, and especially any move towards Kurdish independence – have even allowed whole tank battalions to cross the border into Syria (Kurd-jihadist clashes in north Syria). The jihadist have also been busy looting and torching churches and murdering Alawites.

[BrainGlutton]

Apparently, now the rebels are shifting their focus from city battles to capturing military installations.

[Ají de Gallina]

The thing, for me, is that Assad has figured out that he has no way out that doesn't include killing as many people as it takes to make the rebels stop. He's killed so many that there is not any other thing he can do. He's burnt every possible bridge.

[BrainGlutton]

Originally Posted by Ají de Gallina

The thing, for me, is that Assad has figured out that he has no way out that doesn't include killing as many people as it takes to make the rebels stop. He's killed so many that there is not any other thing he can do. He's burnt every possible bridge.

I am in blood
Stepp'd in so far, that, should I wade no more,
Returning were as tedious as go o'er.

-- Macbeth