538 puts up Presidential election forecast

[Lantern]

Nate has a long post explaining how the forecast is constructed (basically it uses polling data and economics indicators to run simulations)and there is a long side-bar with the detailed state-by-state breakdown from the forecast.

I expect this will be the best resource about the state of the race right till the end so I thought it was worth starting a thread. Nothing too surprising about the current forecast; it's a close race with a smallish edge for Obama. I find it mildly interesting that the forecast gives Obama a slightly higher chance of winning Virginia than Colorado. I don't think the quality and frequency of the state-level polls is high enough as of now to take these numbers too seriously but they will undoubtedly improve as the race heats up.

[Rhythmdvl]

Anyone know if visiting the site--fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com--counts against the quota or whatever limits the NYTimes places on non-paying subscribers?

[Shalmanese]

Originally Posted by Rhythmdvl

Anyone know if visiting the site--fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com--counts against the quota or whatever limits the NYTimes places on non-paying subscribers?

It is.

[Rhythmdvl]

Crap. That pretty much downgrades 538 discussion-wise. Plenty of people will likely still post and start conversations, but it won't be the same as when there was free access.

[Bob Ducca]

Originally Posted by Rhythmdvl

Anyone know if visiting the site--fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com--counts against the quota or whatever limits the NYTimes places on non-paying subscribers?

It does not count.

[Rhythmdvl]

Okay, so here's what we're going to do. You and Shalmanese go over there and battle it out, while I run away from a hatchet-wielding Lantern for knocking his thread off course.

[Bob Ducca]

I'm a non-paying subscriber and I read 538 daily, sometimes clicking over to there multiple times a day looking for updates. I've never had to register or log-in to do so.

[Lord Feldon]

I just opened up a lot of posts on 538, and I eventually got the paywall message.

[Fretful Porpentine]

If I understand the paywall correctly, access to the main page of NYT blogs is free and unlimited, but if you click on a comment thread or a cut, it counts as viewing an article.

[Captain Amazing]

Predictions at this point in the race are pretty much meaningless. I mean, you can predict things like "Obama will win New York" and "Romney will win Utah", but it's too early to say "Obama's got a better chance of winning Virginia than Colorado based on the polling data".

[dropzone]

I knew Nate had drunk the NYT Flavor-Aid when I saw crap like Mr. Obama and Mr. Romney. He is dead to me.

[John Mace]

Originally Posted by Captain Amazing

Predictions at this point in the race are pretty much meaningless. I mean, you can predict things like "Obama will win New York" and "Romney will win Utah", but it's too early to say "Obama's got a better chance of winning Virginia than Colorado based on the polling data".

I don't pay any real attention to this stuff until after Labor Day.

Enjoy your summer, folks!

[Bob Ducca]

Originally Posted by dropzone

I knew Nate had drunk the NYT Flavor-Aid when I saw crap like Mr. Obama and Mr. Romney. He is dead to me.

I don't think that's drinking any kind of Flavor-Aid. He's an employee of the NYT now and as such, he's required to follow their editorial guidelines.

And I guess I was wrong about 538 counting against your limit. I've just never personally had a problem with it but apparently I don't open enough articles or read much else on the NYT site.

[Absolute]

Originally Posted by dropzone

I knew Nate had drunk the NYT Flavor-Aid when I saw crap like Mr. Obama and Mr. Romney. He is dead to me.

I don't get it. What exactly are you accusing him of?

[John Mace]

Originally Posted by Absolute

I don't get it. What exactly are you accusing him of?

Selling out, man. He's no longer "authentic"!

[dropzone]

Fuckin' A. Fight the power!

[BigT]

Originally Posted by Bob Ducca

I don't think that's drinking any kind of Flavor-Aid. He's an employee of the NYT now and as such, he's required to follow their editorial guidelines.

The selling out would be becoming or remaining a NYT employee, I assume. Not that I understand the ire: being required to add a couple letters in front of a name is not something I would consider a moral issue.

If it weren't a joke, that is.

[ultrafilter]

Originally Posted by Captain Amazing

Predictions at this point in the race are pretty much meaningless. I mean, you can predict things like "Obama will win New York" and "Romney will win Utah", but it's too early to say "Obama's got a better chance of winning Virginia than Colorado based on the polling data".

Yep. This summer is going to consist of people talking while they wait for something to say.

[dropzone]

Bob Ducca, Absolute, and BigT? That whoosh has turned into a freakin' AIR SHOW!

[elucidator]

They should be formally referred to by their public honorifics: President Obama and Douchebag Romney.

[elucidator]

Wait, Governor Douchebag Romney. My bad.

[dropzone]

Per NPR's rules of style (they explained it once) it would be Governor Douchebag Romney in his first mention and Mister Douchebag Romney in all subsequent mentions. I suppose merely calling him Douchebag is reserved for mentions off the air as it is too familiar.

[Wesley Clark]

I love 538. I remember in 2008 it was dead on for the electoral college and senate (I don't remember reading up on the house elections).

I do remember how Obama was constantly winning until McCain picked Palin. Palin was really popular at first and had McCain winning the election for a few weeks. But after Palin started talking people turned back to Obama. I remember the GOP strategy on the subject 'just keep her out of the limelight and tell her not to say anything until after the election'.

But suffice it to say things can change. Obama was winning, then Palin was picked and McCain was winning, then Palin flopped and Obama was winning again. All within a few months.

[Cliffy]

Originally Posted by Wesley Clark

I love 538. I remember in 2008 it was dead on for the electoral college and senate (I don't remember reading up on the house elections).

He didn't systemically cover the House in '08, although he'd take a look at particular races from time to time.

--Cliffy

[Typo Knig]

Originally Posted by Wesley Clark

I love 538. I remember in 2008 it was dead on for the electoral college and senate (I don't remember reading up on the house elections).

I do remember how Obama was constantly winning until McCain picked Palin. Palin was really popular at first and had McCain winning the election for a few weeks. But after Palin started talking people turned back to Obama. I remember the GOP strategy on the subject 'just keep her out of the limelight and tell her not to say anything until after the election'.

But suffice it to say things can change. Obama was winning, then Palin was picked and McCain was winning, then Palin flopped and Obama was winning again. All within a few months.

McCain's all-over-the-map response to the economic meltdown in September 2008 did him no favors compared to "No Drama" Obama. At that point Obama's "ground game" was firmly in place, although the general public didn't know how important that would be to the election.

I'm still disappointed that the Biden-Palin debate was't the complete double-barreled train wreck entertainment it should have been.

[VarlosZ]

Originally Posted by Rhythmdvl

Crap. That pretty much downgrades 538 discussion-wise. Plenty of people will likely still post and start conversations, but it won't be the same as when there was free access.

You guys do know that site's pay wall is really, really porous, right? And that that is apparently intentional, so you're not really getting over on them by taking advantage.

If you don't want to resort to things like fiddling with the link address or hitting the stop button before the blocker has a chance to load, you also get (I think) 5 articles a day through search engines; just google the title of an article you want to read. Alternately, in practice, you get 10 articles per month per browser; when you hit your limit on Chrome, open up Firefox. Etc.

[tim314]

Originally Posted by dropzone

I knew Nate had drunk the NYT Flavor-Aid when I saw crap like Mr. Obama and Mr. Romney. He is dead to me.

I agree with Mr. dropzone. That's super annoying.