If President Obama is re-elected, will any of the "conservative" SC justices retire in his 2nd term?

[Nars Glinley]

Assuming that President Obama is re-elected, how do you think the make-up of the Supreme Court will change as far as the "conservative" wing is concerned? Who, if anyone will retire?

I've included Kennedy because he was appointed by President Reagan. I know that he's considered a swing vote and isn't strictly conservative. Poll coming.

[Blank Slate]

Ginsburg, Kennedy and Scalia should have already been forced out by mandatory retirement, IMO.

[hajario]

I doubt that any of them will retire. All that Obama has been able to do so far is hold the line and so it shall remain unless there is a heart attack or stroke.

I can see Ginsberg hanging it up but that's a different story.

[Gagundathar]

OK, I may have jumped the gun on this.
I predict that either Kennedy or Scalia will be forced by their failing health to resign or else die in office.

[Loach]

I didn't vote because its just pointless guessing. None will resign if they remain healthy. Some or all of them will retire if their health fails.

[black rabbit]

Thomas is only 64? Shit!

[Nars Glinley]

Originally Posted by Loach

I didn't vote because its just pointless guessing. None will resign if they remain healthy. Some or all of them will retire if their health fails.

Your lack of participation is duly noted.

[Loach]

Originally Posted by Nars Glinley

Your lack of participation is duly noted.

By who? Am I on some sort of list? Wait a second let me vote, I'll be good.

[Qin Shi Huangdi]

Barring death or incapacity, no.

[panache45]

None. But Ginsberg will probably leave.

[Leaper]

Scalia "is in failing health"? I didn't know this.

[Onomatopoeia]

Originally Posted by black rabbit

Thomas is only 64? Shit!

I know, right? That obsequious bootlicker is going nowhere any time soon. Well, maybe if Scalia retires Thomas will go too, what with his need to kiss Scalia's toes every second of the day...or is that Alito's toes? I keep forgetting. Self-hating piece of crap.

[RTFirefly]

Scalia will only leave when failing health forces him to. Quite frankly, I'm starting to wonder if the man isn't experiencing the onset of some sort of dementia. He seems to be not giving a shit how he comes across in ways that make me wonder.

I could see Anthony Kennedy calling it quits. He'll turn 80 in July 2016, and if he wants to spend time with the grandkids (I assume he has some; he's got three children according to his capsule bio) while he's still tolerably healthy, he needs to be packing up his papers.

Meanwhile, the Clinton appointees are also getting old: next year, Ginsburg will turn 80 and Breyer will turn 75. I'd be surprised if neither of them retired during Obama's second term if he wins in November. Nixon was the last President to appoint four Justices to the Supreme Court; Obama's got a good chance of matching that, and a slight chance of exceeding it.

[Death of Rats]

I don't think any of them would willingly retire during a Democratic Presidential term. Barring death, I would be more inclined to think we will see them serving as a Futurama-like head in a jar than give up thier seat to an Obama appointed replacement.

[astorian]

Originally Posted by Onomatopoeia

I know, right? That obsequious bootlicker is going nowhere any time soon. Well, maybe if Scalia retires Thomas will go too, what with his need to kiss Scalia's toes every second of the day...or is that Alito's toes? I keep forgetting. Self-hating piece of crap.

You have absolutely no idea what you're tlaking about. Unlike Thurgood Marshall (who sat in his pajamas all day watching soap operas, and sent clerks to ask how William Brennan wanted him to vote), Clarence Thomas has a mind and opinions of his own.

[drewtwo99]

Originally Posted by astorian

Clarence Thomas has a mind and opinions of his own.

I lol'd.

[BobLibDem]

Resign? No way. Die? Hopefully. If Romney were to win, then I'd say Scalia would let him pick his successor. I'd like to see them all hang it up say in 2018 or so, when President Hillary Clinton could name Barack Obama as Chief Justice, and Elizabeth Warren as an associate.

[Onomatopoeia]

Originally Posted by drewtwo99

I lol'd.

As did I.

[Death of Rats]

Originally Posted by drewtwo99

I lol'd.

I wonder if he was able to type that with a straight face? I know I couldn't read it with one.

[Senegoid]

Originally Posted by BobLibDem

Resign? No way. Die? Hopefully. If Romney were to win, then I'd say Scalia would let him pick his successor. I'd like to see them all hang it up say in 2018 or so, when President Hillary Clinton could name Barack Obama as Chief Justice, and Elizabeth Warren as an associate.

But who would President Warren then appoint? That's what I'm waiting to see.

[tesseract]

Originally Posted by Onomatopoeia

As did I.

Me too.

[BobLibDem]

Originally Posted by Senegoid

But who would President Warren then appoint? That's what I'm waiting to see.

If she got the White House, maybe Al Franken becomes a Justice. Or Bernie Sanders. Or at least I can dream.

[Simplicio]

The few interviews I've seen with Thomas make me think he doesn't like his job very much. I could see an outside chance of him saying "screw it" and retiring to tool around in his RV.

Scalia seems like he's in good health, likes his job and also seems the Justice that would be most bothered by letting a Dem choose his successor. I doubt he's going anywhere.

Roberts and Alito's just got there and their gavels still have that "new gavel smell", can't imagine they'll go anywhere for many years.

Kennedy seems the most frail of the bunch. I could see him retiring due to health reasons in the next four years.

But Guinsburg seems the most likely next-out by far. She's been in poor health for a while and would probably want a Dem to chose her replacement. Everyone though she'd be the first to go last term.

[Marley23]

Moved to Elections from IMHO because it's a political topic.

[StusBlues]

Originally Posted by Loach

I didn't vote because its just pointless guessing. None will resign if they remain healthy. Some or all of them will retire if their health fails.

Seconded. I can absolutely see Scalia and Kennedy being forced out by the way of all flesh, though.

Originally Posted by astorian

You have absolutely no idea what you're tlaking about. Unlike Thurgood Marshall (who sat in his pajamas all day watching soap operas, and sent clerks to ask how William Brennan wanted him to vote), Clarence Thomas has a mind and opinions of his own.

Can you explain why you feel that way? It does seem at odds with Thomas' marathon stretch between speaking from the bench, but I have not studied the man's jurisprudence.

[RickG]

In a New Yorker piece last year, Jeffrey Toobin suggests that, despite his silence during oral arguments, Thomas is both smarter and more influential than one might think. His worldview is, to my mind, abhorrent, but he's no lightweight.

[BrainGlutton]

Originally Posted by black rabbit

Thomas is only 64? Shit!

And Roberts is only 57.

[BrainGlutton]

Originally Posted by Marley23

Moved to Elections from IMHO because it's a political topic.

Really more of a GD topic, though, don't you think? Only tangentially related to the election itself.

[E-Sabbath]

Scalia and Thomas have my vote on most likely to leave for medical reasons.

I don't know why, but every time I look at Thomas, I keep saying to myself, 'That man has a family history of heart disease.' I don't know if it's true, it's just my instinctive evaluation.

Kennedy will possibly retire. Maybe even probably retire.

[dalej42]

I'm almost sure Ginsberg will resign if Obama wins reelection. I can also see Kennedy stepping down as he's going to be the subject of a lot of speculation during the 2016 race since his replacement could significantly alter the ideological balance of the court.

I've never gotten the impression that Kennedy is devoted to the Supreme Court to the extent someone like Scalia or Rehnquist are/were.

[Kolak of Twilo]

IF any of those listed in the poll actually go I would imagine Kennedy is the most likely. I was surprised and somewhat heartened to see Scalia is 76. That gives me hope he will be gone in my lifetime.

[BrainGlutton]

Or maybe Scalia will take a hint from E.J. Dionne and resign.

Damn! Excuse me, I have go clean some pig shit off the roof of my car . . .

[cckerberos]

Originally Posted by RickG

despite his silence during oral arguments

Thomas views oral arguments as a useless bit of theater. And honestly, I'd be hard pressed to disagree with him.