2012 Tour de France

[Anomie]

Originally Posted by Aro

Is this a joke? Really? That YOU had never heard of them is not in any way the same as NO ONE ever having heard of them.

I meant one of the two annihilators, namely Froome.

Look at his achievements before last year's Vuelta. It wasn't just me who had never heard of him.

Originally Posted by Wiggo

"I say they're just fu***** wankers. I cannot be doing with people like that. It justifies their own bone-idleness because they can't ever imagine applying themselves to doing anything in their lives. It's easy for them to sit under a pseudonym on Twitter and write that sort of shit rather than get off their arses in their own lives and apply themselves and work hard at something and achieve something. And that's ultimately it - c**ts!"

Originally Posted by Chris Froome

Critics need to wake up and realise that cycling has evolved. Dedication and sacrifice = results. End of story!"

...and today's reading is from the book of Armstrong.

[Aro]

Originally Posted by Princhester

I'm not sure what your point is, frankly.

I was merely adding the recent responses of the riders (mainly for the lurkers here) so that a full picture could be had, rather than just hearing the standard accusations being rolled out without context or retort. I think that is very relevant when hearing the usual cries of 'cheat' every time someone beats someone else.

Originally Posted by Princhester

Do you believe that the riders he is extremely sporadically able to thrash but who he generally isn't in the same league with ..

Now is is me who isn't sure what your point is - who says he's not in the same league as the other riders (as clearly he is) and who are these other riders you think as so much better anyhow, really? On what do you base this comparison? Fabian? Tony Martin? Cadel? (Are you aware that he has had major issues with a tropical disease, if you are simply questoning his consistency?)

=Princhester]...aren't dedicated and haven't sacrified? Really?

Maybe they have, maybe not quite as much. Who can tell? Maybe they have dedicated just as much but still can't reach the same level as it's a 'genetic freak' thing, like a lot of cycling hangs on.

[Aro]

Originally Posted by Anomie

Look at his achievements before last year's Vuelta. It wasn't just me who had never heard of him.

Silver in the British TT championships 2010? He was mostly riding in Africa before that, so off the radar a bit in world terms, but so what?

Aside: Who'd heard of Peter Sagan until last year too, is he and his teammates all doping too? Must be, to win a stage (or two). So quick to judge and condemn, it's sad really.

[Princhester]

Yes well thanks for adding context. Until you did I had no idea that cyclists accused of doping tended to deny it.

And no he is not clearly in the same league as other riders except every now and again. Froome is a guy way down the order 95% of the time. Then out of the blue he can blow away the best in the world for a couple of days, then he's way back down the order again. There may be some complex explanation for this. May be. But like I said, given cycling's history, you are naive if you don't start asking certain questions.

[Cumbrian]

Originally Posted by Princhester

May be. But like I said, given cycling's history, you are naive if you don't start asking certain questions.

This is the issue for me. In any other sport, a guy starting to put it together properly at age 26/27, as Froome has done over 2011's Vuelta and the Tour this year, would be deemed evidence of the flowering of talent as he reached his peak. But this is cycling.

I am currently in the middle of a house move, so I don't have access to a TV or the internet when I am at home. As such, I have not seen any of the race since Thursday night. Even as a Brit, I looked at the result yesterday, saw how much time Wiggins and Froome put into Cancellara and raised my eyebrows. Was Cancellara on an off day? Did the course not suit him? Or is it looking like he is trying to peak for the Gold Medal in London in the TT? Because, absent something like that, Froome in particular putting that amount of time into Cancellara is pretty unexpected.

[Gorsnak]

With the number of times that cycling fans have discovered their favourites are actually cheaters, it's no wonder a lot of them are cynical about unexpectedly great performances. Which is sad, because unexpectedly great performances are wonderful - if they're genuine. But it's rather insulting to blame cycling fans for their cynicism instead of the rampant doping that has been and to some extent still is going on.

[Richard Pearse]

Originally Posted by Cumbrian

This is the issue for me. In any other sport, a guy starting to put it together properly at age 26/27, as Froome has done over 2011's Vuelta and the Tour this year, would be deemed evidence of the flowering of talent as he reached his peak. But this is cycling.

I am currently in the middle of a house move, so I don't have access to a TV or the internet when I am at home. As such, I have not seen any of the race since Thursday night. Even as a Brit, I looked at the result yesterday, saw how much time Wiggins and Froome put into Cancellara and raised my eyebrows. Was Cancellara on an off day? Did the course not suit him? Or is it looking like he is trying to peak for the Gold Medal in London in the TT? Because, absent something like that, Froome in particular putting that amount of time into Cancellara is pretty unexpected.

I saw an interview with one of the BMC guys yesterday before the TT asking who he thought the course would suit best, Evans or Wiggins. He said it'll suit who ever recovers best after the past week of racing. I don't know that it's completely unexpected for some odd performances to turn up on the first major TT of the comp after a week of hard competition. Anyone who's done regular physical activity would know that sometimes you just have off days, and even though these guys all put a lot of time into getting the training and recovery just right, it doesn't take much for the recovery to be a bit off and the legs to feel lethargic. The question I'd ask is if Froome was doping why isn't he that good all of the time?

[Richard Pearse]

Missed the edit window.

Something else to consider is how much of the work these guys have been doing over the past week. I haven't been paying much attention to Froome but if he'd been staying in the pack and avoiding doing the hard yards right at the front he may well have expended a whole lot less energy than some of the other guys. I know that Wiggins and Evans worked pretty hard on the stage prior to the TT as Evans tried to put a gap on Wiggins and Wiggins pushed to keep him in check. Wiggins then has the advantage of being a specialist time trial cyclist with a track background who has leaned down recently and possibly has a bigger TT advantage than some had expected. Where was Froome at the end of the previous stage? Was he pushing hard in the chase with Evans and Wiggins or was he taking it easy in the peloton? (Genuine question, I wasn't paying attention to him.)

[Cumbrian]

Froome won the stage the day before the TT, didn't he? At the top of a Cat 1 climb? Froome has probably done the same work that Wiggins and Evans did. For me the question mark is Cancellara - he wouldn't have featured up the climb and would likely have taken it relatively easy to give the TT a crack at winning the stage. Plus he's a noted TTer, the World Champ if I'm not mistaken, and Froome still put time into him. This is why I wondered what those who actually saw the race thought of how Cancellara looked/rode.

[Richard Pearse]

Just checked the results. It was a flat finish. Froome didn't win but he was in the chase group with Wiggins and Evans so he would've been putting some work in. So much for that theory.

Cancellera looked pretty good and he had the time to beat until the very end. Froome only put 22 seconds on him which is very little over 50kms. Part of it could be the advantage of going at the end having seen everyone else's times.

[Cumbrian]

Fair enough - like I said, working without actually seeing any of this and seeking opinions of others.

[Gorsnak]

Froome won two days before the ITT, not one. But he did more work on that climb than Evans and Wiggins, not the same or less. That's what has eyebrows raised - this relative unknown blows the likes of Samu Sanchez and Denis Menchov off the back in a Cat 1 climb, easily outsprints Evans at the line, then two days later puts 20 seconds into Fabian Cancellara in an ITT. That would be a remarkable performance for Alberto Contador, never mind Froome.

Maybe he's just a late bloomer who's struggled with health issues that are finally cleared up, but this is a sudden burst of greatness akin to Jeremy "Linsanity" Lin's run of games when he started starting for the Knicks. Given cycling's history, it's naive not to raise an eyebrow. Because unlike basketball where creative passing and exploiting defensive schemes not designed for you don't require doping, these cycling achievements require a body to suddenly output way more aerobic power than it has before, and that's to a significant extent a straight physiological thing.

I hope he's not cheating, because it would be a great story. But I've been burned before by these guys, so my judgement is withheld pending further data.

[Richard Pearse]

I hope he's not as well. It's not uncommon for young sportsman to have sporadic performance. Could be his body is capable but he doesn't yet have the experience to be able to produce consistent results. Could also be that he's drugged to his eyeballs but only at strategic times.

[Aro]

Originally Posted by Cumbrian

... the World Champ if I'm not mistaken...

He has been ( what, 4 times maybe?) but IIRC the current TT World Champ is Tony Martin.

[Gorsnak]

Fabian's record in mid-Tour ITT's isn't actually particularly amazing. He's of course always near the top of the field, but usually the top GC riders who are strong time triallers beat him by a bit. Plus he's getting a bit old. And Tony Martin has a broken wrist and then had a flat tire - he's pulled out of the Tour now to try to heal for the Olympics.

[Richard Pearse]

The Olympics complicates things significantly. The Tour de France is THE Tour de France, but the Olympics only happen once every four years and it's only a matter of days after the tour. I wouldn't be surprised if the Olympics is more important to some of he riders.

[Aro]

Sean Kelly was chatting a bit about TTs with David Harmon yesterday on the Tour commentary - he was saying it's a totally different race when you focus, prepare and train for a one-off TT like the World Championships or the Olympics, than when you have to pull a TT performance from your legs mid-race. Cancellara won the prologue (with fresh legs) and had a pretty good TT in Stage 9, but was outpaced by a few other TT specialists. I don't see it as remarkable that he was beaten, and it wasn’t by that much over the distance. In fact, Tony Martin, even with his broken wrist, was ahead of Fabian in the splits until he punctured for the second time, so it’s hard to say precisely who was actually above or below their normal par.

Also hard to say what the priority should be this year; I think wearing yellow in Paris will be bigger than a gold medal for Wiggins, but Cav seems to have slimmed down and potentially sacrificed a few stage wins (well, the gods of crashes, and Greipal, may have taken them from him regardless) in order to get himself up Box Hill 9 times and still be there to challenge in a bunch sprint in the Olympic Road race.

[fiddlesticks]

The dope police got themselves a minnow in Rémy Di Grégorio.

[Princhester]

Concentrating on Froome gapping Martin and Cancellara in the ITT misses the point. Martin had a broken bone and Cancellara doesn't always shine. If Froome was someone who was reliably top ten in ITT's and happened to beat Martin and Cancellara on Monday I wouldn't have raised half an eyebrow.

Never mind worrying about how Froome beat Martin and Cancellara; worry about how he beat anyone in the top thirty, and by a very solid margin at that.

[Richard Pearse]

Well he was second in the Brittish TT champs in 2010, is being in the top thirty of the TDF two years later that surprising? As I said before its not unusual for young athletes to have sporadic performance. One of the differences between the really good guys and the pretty good guys is not so much that the pretty good guys never have good performances, but that they don't have the consistency of the top guys. See Bernard Tomic for a non cycling example. Sometimes he looks like Australia's next big tennis star, other times you wonder why they bothered seeding him.

[Princhester]

Originally Posted by Richard Pearse

Well he was second in the Brittish TT champs in 2010...

You are familiar with the expression "damning with faint praise", right?

[Richard Pearse]

Originally Posted by Princhester

You are familiar with the expression "damning with faint praise", right?

Not much competition eh?

The sad thing is that we may never know if these guys are doping or not, and there will always be suspicion surrounding the sport.

[Richard Pearse]

Interesting stage last night. Wiggins looked very comfortable sitting behind his team mates, I don't think I saw him stand up once, just sat there spinning. Evans had sporadic support from his team mates but then the commentators mentioned that he's built a team to help him on the flat sections and that he doesn't mind being isolated in the climbs and descents. I think something special is going to have to happen to break the Sky team's composure.

[Princhester]

I was disappointed Evans didn't attempt anything last night. He just sat on Sky's high tempo wheels and watched it all play out. Which is of course exactly what Sky are hoping for.

I was hoping that Evans, Nibali and Van den Broeck would mount attacks till Wiggins was isolated and then out descend him, help each other across the gap to the next climb etc. It seemed as if that was the setup. At the time Nibali had Sagan ahead in the break and Evans had Burghardt, both perfectly positioned to drop back. They would have had a group of five to go balls out for the line. Instead it seemed only Nibali had the guts. Nibali's move didn't work in the end but who knows what would have happened if he'd had more help. I haven't watched the full replay but I understand Sky brought Nibali back. Evans is lucky that Sky did or he might be 3rd now.

I'm hoping that Evans and John Lelangue have put their heads together and have worked out where they have the best chance of a success, and had made a cool headed decision that last night's HC climb wasn't hard enough, and that their best opportunity is yet to come. I'm hoping. But Sky are just dominating so well, it's getting hard to see it.

[fiddlesticks]

Nibali called out Wiggins for taunting him at the end of Stage 10. Hopefully hatred brings some real attacks against Wiggins and Sky.

Also, mega cheers for Jens Voigt's old legs and this moment in the feed zone...

[Anomie]

Originally Posted by Richard Pearse

Evans had sporadic support from his team mates but then the commentators mentioned that he's built a team to help him on the flat sections and that he doesn't mind being isolated in the climbs and descents.

I heard them say that too. I think at some point he just gave up trying to get help in the mountains.
Back in his Lotto days they got him Popovych in 2008--who then promptly fell out of form--and then in preparation for 2009 they got him Kohl--who promptly got done for doping.
Elite climbing domestiques are not a dime a dozen [snide reference to Sky/USPS].
...and BMC's big spend last year seemed more about preparing for life after Evans then helping him go back-to-back.

Originally Posted by Princhester

I haven't watched the full replay but I understand Sky brought Nibali back. Evans is lucky that Sky did or he might be 3rd now.

I was half asleep watching it, but it seemed that Porte pretty much did the job single-handed up and over that last Cat 3. They didn't bother with Van Den Broeck.

Originally Posted by Princhester

I'm hoping that Evans and John Lelangue have put their heads together and have worked out where they have the best chance of a success, and had made a cool headed decision that last night's HC climb wasn't hard enough, and that their best opportunity is yet to come.

I reckon it wasn't that the climb wasn't hard enough, but rather that it was too far from home, and that the path home was too easy.

...but looking at the opportunities ahead... boy is it depressing.
I can only find three obvious places for an attack:
1. Tonight (Stage 11) at the the top of the Cat 2 with 35km to go.
2. Stage 16, anywhere after the second HC with 75km to go
3. Stage 17, at the HC with 30km to go

Someone's going to have to try something heroic.

[Princhester]

l read something somewhere saying that tonight isn't hard enough for an attack to work, but I would have thought that an attack on Croix de Fer (the 2nd HC) might work because there is essentially only downhill and climb from there to the finish. There is no flat on which a team would provide obvious help. Though given that the Skytrain seem capable of setting a pace uphill that even some of the best climbers around can't attack out of, maybe not.

[Anomie]

Originally Posted by Princhester

l read something somewhere saying that tonight isn't hard enough for an attack to work, but I would have thought that an attack on Croix de Fer (the 2nd HC) might work because there is essentially only downhill and climb from there to the finish. There is no flat on which a team would provide obvious help. Though given that the Skytrain seem capable of setting a pace uphill that even some of the best climbers around can't attack out of, maybe not.

Yeah, for Sky a Cat 2 is pretty much flat.
Seriously, on that final Cat 3 last night they just used Porte, Rogers had punctured early on the descent and they still just held Froome in reserve.

..looking at the maps... what you read seems right about tonight.
Both the descents from the HC and the Cat 2 only have about half-a-dozen switchbacks and plenty of long straight sections.

[Knorf]

Evans cracketh. Menchov, too.

[Cumbrian]

Yeah, that's Evans in a certain amount of trouble. About a minute and a half he's lost there on Wiggins.

Froome dropped Wiggins for a bit and must have got a shout to stop buggering about and waited for him. He still finished much more strongly than Wiggins.

[Anomie]

So Wiggins has 2:23 to Nibali in third; 3:19 to Evans in fourth.
Add in the ITT and you have 4:30/5:00.
That's the ball game folks.

[Cumbrian]

I wouldn't be too sure - Wiggins got dropped today and only stayed in it because Froome held up the group on orders.

I think if he really was given his head, Froome could win this himself.

[Richard Pearse]

He won't be allowed to for as long as Wiggins stays in it. Certainly looks like a done deal now, but all it takes is for Wiggins to have a bad day.

[Princhester]

It doesn't surprise me that Evans cracked at the end. I only stayed up to watch till they were over the Croix de Fer. Evans looked good on the attack for all of about 2 minutes, after which he was clearly struggling to even hold Teejay's wheel. After that he was hanging about at the back of the yellow jersey bunch, regularly slipping off the wheel in front. He seemed cooked, and cooked he was.

I notice BMC are still bravely claiming that a victory is possible. I don't think so. Even on the "Evans gets better in the third week" theory, I don't think so. Froome is clearly the only one who can trouble Wiggins, and he's under team orders.

[Aro]

Originally Posted by Cumbrian

Froome dropped Wiggins for a bit and must have got a shout to stop buggering about and waited for him. He still finished much more strongly than Wiggins.

Wiggins said in an interview after that the crowd noise on the mountain made it difficult to hear the team radios, and when the actual instructions were "slow, slow" Froome heard "Go, Go" and jumped off the group like a man possessed. It was only 20 secs later when he was corrected and told to wait that he dropped back and rejoined the rest.

Was wondering last night, when Froome popped out of the pack, if a similar tactic might work in Sky's favour now that they have two riders who could potentially win the GC. If Froome had the legs and took off in a breakaway*, then Sky could rest up in the peleton and make BMC or Liquigas do all the chasing for a change as they'd have to bring him back, and if they did then Wiggins is still sitting pretty in the chasing group, and that would give Rogers, Porte and BH a bit of a day off too, maybe. What could the other teams realistically do to counter a move like that, do you think?

* IF being a big assumption here, and also allowing for the fact it's probably a bit silly of Sky to change a (so far) winning strategy for something a bit wacky.

[Princhester]

The constituents in breakaways are not random. The GC teams only let breakaways that don't contain any GC contenders go. Anything with a GC contender in it is chased down immediately.

If a GC contender goes alone all the other GC teams will use their numbers to chase him down. If a GC contender tries to get into a breakaway with others, they will not work with him because they know that a breakaway with a GC contender in it will always be chased down.

[Aro]

That depends again on how 'immediately' they could bring him back, and it still makes the other GC teams do some work chasing for a change, even if only for a short time. Sky have been out front controlling the pace and the chase nearly every day, I'm sure they'd like to step back for a bit, if at all possible. (although working out front is arguably the safer bet anyhow, with the amount of crashes there have been so far).

Anyhow, it was but a passing thought, of no consequence.

[Cumbrian]

Well, even Britain's confirmed drug cheats are winning stages on the Tour this year.

[blondebear]

What's with all the flat tires today?

[Busy Scissors]

Yeah, v odd - CE on his third flat. Speculation from Phil that it might be tacks on the road or somesuch.
Great stage at the moment - Sagan is a beast.

[polar bear]

The tacks story has been confirmed by a few sources (the BMC team is one of them); pretty much everyone was affected it seams... Roland isn't going to be popular the next couple of days.

[John DiFool]

Question about strategy-I assume that nobody (not even the green jersey guy) who was in a position to challenge Wiggins for the yellow jersey/overall lead was in the breakaway group which ended up beating the peloton by 15 minutes. What happens if someone who IS in a position to take the lead decides to join one of these breakaway packs? Does the yellow jersey rider go after him, or does he assume that by racing ahead the other guy is going to wear himself out in subsequent stages?

[Laggard]

Originally Posted by John DiFool

Question about strategy-I assume that nobody (not even the green jersey guy) who was in a position to challenge Wiggins for the yellow jersey/overall lead was in the breakaway group which ended up beating the peloton by 15 minutes. What happens if someone who IS in a position to take the lead decides to join one of these breakaway packs? Does the yellow jersey rider go after him, or does he assume that by racing ahead the other guy is going to wear himself out in subsequent stages?

If someone like Evans took off he would immediately be chased down by yellow and his team. Or they would lift the tempo enough that Evans was only a few seconds off the front. No way they would ever let him out of sight though.

I remember Armstrong a few years ago bridging a gap to a small breakaway. Pissed everyone in that group off as it guaranteed that the break was going to fail.

[Busy Scissors]

Froome gave a pretty frank interview to l'equipe yesterday, few quotes here, basically saying he'd have the Tour in the bag if he wasn't riding for Brad.
Good to hear him speak his mind, and maybe he thinks he has to show his arse a wee bit if he wants to lead a team next year, but still sounds a bit hypothetical. Wiggins is in pole position because he has the credibility for Sky to build a team around him to contest the tour. Froome hasn't had that stature by a long way, so to say he could win this from Wiggins' team doesn't do him much credit IMHO.

[lisiate]

The Froome discussion leads me to ask this question of the cycling historians: When was the last time winner came from the ranks of a team rather than the designated star? Or has such a thing never happened since the advent of team tactics? Actually how long has the current team system been in place anyway?

[Princhester]

Originally Posted by Busy Scissors

Froome hasn't had that stature by a long way, so to say he could win this from Wiggins' team doesn't do him much credit IMHO.

I think team managers will be very wary of hiring Froome as a GC leader until he has a lot more consistency under his belt. And that "consistency" would need to include consistency in the field of "not being caught juicing".

[DragonAsh]

I think it's a bit premature to say that Froome would have the tour 'in the bag' except for Brad. Brad beat him in both time trials, and while Froome did 'attack' a few days ago (by mistake, it seems), he looked pretty cooked during parts of that stage. I don't know why everyone assumes he was the 'stronger climber' there - Wiggins didn't respond to the attack right away because he clearly didn't need to; it was a teammate and he clearly expected Froome to come back to the bunch. I don't think we've really seen Wiggins dig deep the entire tour other than the ITT...while the tour has had some great moments and interesting stages, the GC competition has been pretty dull. The Sky team is just too strong (and Froome is benefiting from the team every bit as much as Wiggins is).

But great sportsmanship from Wiggins the last couple of days, from pulling on the front as a leadout for a teammate, to neutralizing the race to let Evans and the others catch up.

Contrast that to Contador's 'Oh, I didn't see Andy drop a chain' stunt a few years back...

[Gorsnak]

Originally Posted by DragonAsh

But great sportsmanship from Wiggins the last couple of days, from pulling on the front as a leadout for a teammate, to neutralizing the race to let Evans and the others catch up.

Contrast that to Contador's 'Oh, I didn't see Andy drop a chain' stunt a few years back...

In fairness, dropping a chain is part of racing. Having tacks strewn across the road is not.

[Anomie]

Rumor is a big name has been done for doping.
Waiting for story... please let it be Wiggins/Froome--need to nip this in the bud.

It's Fränk Schleck.

...damn. But seriously, why would he bother this year?

[fiddlesticks]

Without Johan there to manage the doping, it all goes to hell obviously.