Venezuelan presidential election, 10/07/12: Chavez v. Capriles

[BrainGlutton]

Venezuelan presidential election, October 7, 2012.

President Hugo Chavez Frias, in office since 1999, is running for another six-year term. Even though he has cancer. He has already survived a coup attempt in 2002 and a recall election in 2004. His administration has been marked by his leftist "Bolivarian Revolution," and his attempt to organize an international grouping of Latin American states called the Bolivarian Alliance for the Americas (other members are Cuba, Bolivia, Nicaragua, Ecuador, and some small Caribbean islands states). He is the candidate of the United Socialist Party of Venezuela and, more broadly, of the Great Patriotic Pole (*snerk*) coalition.

Chavez' opponent is Henrique Capriles Radonski, who just today led a huge march in Caracas to kick off his campaign. He is the candidate of the center-right Justice First Party and of the broad Chavez-opposition alliance, the Coalition for Democratic Unity.

I dunno who I like here, frankly. I'm a lefty and everything, but Chavez is way too Bonapartist-presidentialist -- which is a Latin-American tradition, I suppose, but a revolution should not be about one guy, and only an egomaniac would stay in this after a cancer diagnosis.

[BrainGlutton]

Chavez stages "cancer comeback rally."

[cckerberos]

Honestly, it's hard for me to imagine Capriles having much of a chance. Even if elections are fair, Chavez's control over the media gives him far too much influence.

[BrainGlutton]

Hm. A new poll shows Chavez only slightly ahead of Capriles, just 3.4%.

[gamerunknown]

I watched this documentary by John Pilger a while back.

I also watched this interview with Chomsky. I know a Venezuelan guy on another forum for whom Chavez is intolerable (and prison conditions there do seem draconian, per his description). Chavez also has pretty reactionary views on video games.

[Ponch8]

Hopefully Chavez will be dead by then.

[BrainGlutton]

Originally Posted by Ponch8

Hopefully Chavez will be dead by then.

What, by October? Doubtful.

[New Deal Democrat]

I liked Chavez when he was poking his thumb in George W. Bush's eye and getting away with it.

Nevertheless, Venezuela has one of the highest murder rates in the world.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of..._homicide_rate

It has grown under Chavez. It might be time for a change.

[BrainGlutton]

Originally Posted by New Deal Democrat

I liked Chavez when he was poking his thumb in George W. Bush's eye and getting away with it.

Nevertheless, Venezuela has one of the highest murder rates in the world.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of..._homicide_rate

It has grown under Chavez. It might be time for a change.

Well, is Capriles running on a law-&-order platform? Anybody know?

[florez]

Originally Posted by BrainGlutton

Well, is Capriles running on a law-&-order platform? Anybody know?

There are rumors that capriles is not exactly about law and order.
http://venezuelawearewithyou.blogspo...candidate.html

[Qin Shi Huangdi]

Originally Posted by gamerunknown

I watched this documentary by John Pilger a while back.

I also watched this interview with Chomsky. I know a Venezuelan guy on another forum for whom Chavez is intolerable (and prison conditions there do seem draconian, per his description). Chavez also has pretty reactionary views on video games.

Not reactionary, just authoritarian. After all I don't think Pol Pot or Chairman Mao would have approved of video games either.

Chavez is just Mussolini 1.0 (back when he was a socialist rather than a fascist).

[gamerunknown]

Originally Posted by Qin Shi Huangdi

Not reactionary, just authoritarian.

Well, I was being a bit presumptuous in that characterisation. As it stands, he doesn't want to return to a world without video games, just one without violent video games.

[BrainGlutton]

I recall Chavez is also down on any celebration of Halloween in Venezuela, as an instance of Yankee cultural imperialism. Well, of course it is, but lighten up, Hugo!

[florez]

Originally Posted by BrainGlutton

I recall Chavez is also down on any celebration of Halloween in Venezuela,

OMG, this is just to wicked and cruel, how can people put up with such severity from that monster?

[florez]

I seems like he has tried to deal with some issues of poverty.
http://venezuelanalysis.com/news/7048

[BrainGlutton]

Originally Posted by BrainGlutton

What, by October? Doubtful.

OTOH, I don't think it likely he'll live to finish another six-year term. Venezuelans and the world had better start thinking about Life After Hugo. Specifically, does this "Bolivarian Revolution" have enough on-the-ground momentum to survive him, or not?

[florez]

Originally Posted by BrainGlutton

OTOH, I don't think it likely he'll live to finish another six-year term. Venezuelans and the world had better start thinking about Life After Hugo. Specifically, does this "Bolivarian Revolution" have enough on-the-ground momentum to survive him, or not?

Agreed, and is there any hint that he might be grooming someone else to do the job?

[BrainGlutton]

Chavez leads in the polls, 46.1 to 30.8.

[BrainGlutton]

Election approaching! This Sunday!

I predict Chavez wins another term. I lay no odds on whether he will finish it.

[GIGObuster]

Chavez wins.

I have to mention that I'm on the record that I only tolerate Chavez as most of the opposition still looks to turn the clock back on even the reforms the people supports.

And one reason for the tolerance is that once again, like Voltaire would say, the enemies of Chavez are stupid.

They just repeated the maneuver that relied on early unreliable exit polls and counted on compliant media to repeat what they claimed.

I usually like to look at how media sources behave in cases like this, and predictably the right wing media in Venezuela reported on that early bit that some exit poll outfit had reported a Chavez loss, and over here woo woo right wing sites like the Dailycaller.com did so too, but it is interesting to look at "slightly" more serious media. On a previous election "The Independent" of the UK took the bait, but this time they were careful, but not so Business Insider

http://www.businessinsider.com/a-ven...losing-2012-10

As before, this item is important IMHO as it shows the levels some sources are reaching to incite violence to further their aims.

It is important to notice that even though the opposition lost by ten % points, it was closer than in previous elections, IMHO it was close because Capriles did promise that many of Chavez reforms would continue, but it seems that the people then also thought that then it would be better that Chavez should be one to continue making those reforms.

Just like before, I would prefer to see soon a different candidate from the left to put the clownish and ugly baggage that Chavez has away. (The current Vice President is an intellectual and I would had preferred to see him as president rather than Chavez, but I suspect that many over in Venezuela did keep in mind the uncertain health of Chavez and also liked his vice President.)