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#101
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Lin played extremely well tonight: 21 points, 9 assists, 7 rebounds, 4 steals, and just 3 turnovers in a more sane 36 minutes. But Deron Williams absolutely went off and the Nets shot ridiculously well from 3, so the Knicks lost again. Carmelo Anthony didn't do very much and neither did Baron Davis in his first game back. So it's another very good effort for Lin but much more of a mixed bag for the Knicks.
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#102
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With the attention from the media and the world growing exponentially, it seems the expectations from Lin are invariably growing at a similar pace.
To compare Lin to Paul or Williams or Parker, at this stage, is just ridiculous. These guys are perhaps the 3 best point guards in the world! As a point guard, Lin is not (and may never be) one of the 5 best in the league. He's also clearly not as good as Rose or Westbrook, who aren't really point guards but are listed at that position. The amazing thing about him is that he firmly entrenched himself in the Top 6-10 in the NBA in just a week after being on the cusp of being cut from the league and quitting basketball. But to even mention him alongside Paul is really doing Paul a disservice. |
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#103
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#104
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#105
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Top 6, no.
Rose Paul DWill Nash Rondo Kidd Throw in Curry, Westbrook, Wall, a few others. But I think you can make an argument for say top 15, even given the limited number of games we've seen him play. He's already proven he has decent ability to penetrate and finish/find open guys, and at least tries to play defense. He's also not as bad a shooter as people were afraid of at first. I think these are all things you can't just dismiss as 2-week flukes. I disagree somewhat that we haven't seen what teams will try to do to stop him. Opponents have been gameplanning for him since the Utah game. Obviously with all the media hype he's been getting there's plenty of attention being paid and tape being watched. Mavs are a top defense and trapped him every time down, bringing doubles up high, lots of hard fouls, etc. And he made some adjustments and was successful. That's a strong case for the elusive BBIQ people have been claiming that Lin has. Overall tho, I agree that to really feel confident that he can continue to keep winning, we'd have to see how the rest of the season and possibly playoffs play out. |
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#106
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I'm not calling him a fluke. There's a lot of reason to think he will continue to be successful even though I don't think he will continue to score 25 points a game - if he does, the Knicks are probably in trouble - and he does have some significant flaws. He deserves much of the praise he's getting, but it's too early to say he's one of the best point guards in the league. It's a boom time for the position right now, which is one reason he had trouble getting a job.
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#107
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I think sportswriters need to try to write actual headlines with facts than try to come up with some punny catchphrase.
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#108
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You want sportswriters to think? Are you Linsane?
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#109
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edited to add: Linja'd! Last edited by Parthol; 02-21-2012 at 04:47 PM. |
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#110
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Lindor Truffles!
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#111
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Last edited by Quint; 02-21-2012 at 11:04 PM. |
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#112
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As usual, The Onion nails it. I haven't laughed this hard in a long time.
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#113
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http://espn.go.com/mma/story/_/id/76...emy-lin-tweets Let's not do this, everyone (and what Mayweather, who I consider a punk (who could kill me with one punch), said was considerably more benign than the bad judgment and taste shown by the ESPN guys). Last edited by Huerta88; 02-22-2012 at 08:11 PM. |
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#114
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Anybody following the Lin contract drama? Looks like the Knicks aren't going to match the latest Rockets offer, and are pissed off about it. I totally agree that this latest offer is far too much for an unproven player like Lin, but I do think if the Knicks didn't foul up the process, they could have kept Lin, at a more reasonable price.
Apparently, after the Rocket's initial offer, the Knicks told Lin they'd match, and Lin went and got himself a better deal. As a Knicks fan, I'm disappointed that he's not likely to come back, but loving the fact that the Jim Dolan is pissed off. Apparently, Dolan considers this a disloyal act. Refusing to offer Lin a contract, and letting the market determine Lin's worth, that's not disloyal, it's just good business. I guess it's also good business to advertise to the world that you intend to match "any offer" for Lin, no way that could affect negotiations. Jeremy is a disloyal untrustworthy person, who got himself an additional $6M guaranteed, good for him, and I wish him well in Houston. |
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#115
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I think he's better off in Houston. No Carmelo, and he's headed to a team that's looking to commit to him. The Knicks have hemmed and hawed the whole time he was there.
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#116
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Knicks are better off without him then matching that contract offer.
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#117
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Ok, I'm loving this part. The Knicks decided to let the "market" determine Lin's worth, however, their cost to keep Lin isn't the same as other teams who are bidding on him. In addition to the basic luxury tax problem, the Knicks are especially hard hit by a back end loaded contract. Houston Chronicle
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BTW, can anyone explain the logic behind the part I quoted? Why would the cap impact be different for the Rockets vs. Knicks? |
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#118
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I am not really clear on how NBA contracts work. Are they guaranteed? If not, ISTM the Knicks could match, and then after two years either redo Lin's deal or cut him.
Purely a marketing POV, Lin is extremely valuable. And as a casual fan, it's a shame to see him going to a bad team. |
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#119
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NBA contracts are guaranteed, yes.
The way the "poison pill" part works is a loophole in the CBA/salary cap structure with regard to restricted free agents. If a RFA is signed to an offer sheet, the team signing him to the offer sheet can take the salary cap charges each year at the average annual value of the contract. However, if the RFA's original team matches the deal and re-signs the player, they have to take the salary cap charges at the actual salary paid in each year. Having a contract that takes a lesser cap hit in years 1 and 2 and then a massive one in year 3 particularly targets the Knicks, because they have their expensive players locked in to deals that go through that third season (and those deals escalate as well, though more gradually, so the highest numbers are in year three). Once you add in the Lin money, they will end up being way over the luxury tax threshhold that year, since there's no way they could have really planned for him to get anywhere near that much. On top of that, the new CBA massively ramps up the penalties for being over the luxury tax line. It is likely to cost the Knicks something like $30 million in luxury tax penalties if they match and then keep him through the third year, without otherwise breaking down or rebuilding the team. That's not to say that they shouldn't match anyways and then try to trade him after the first year; if he has even a decent season, $20 million or so over two years will be very tradeable, especially with the marketing opportunities. There's some real downside there, though, if anything goes really wrong in year one. |
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#120
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On the other hand, until Carmello Anthony's gone, there's really no hope for Lin anyhow. Probably better for him if he goes.
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#121
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I'm actually in Houston and one of the sports talk radio guys thought that the Knicks would sign Lin at the last possible moment, just to spite the Rockets for inflating his value. I really cannot believe that NY would let him go. I don't know the numbers but I have believe that he brings in much more revenue than he costs. I know the Knicks sell out every game but the amount of merchandise, overseas TV contracts, etc. Then again, the Knicks couldn't be that dumb, could they?
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#122
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Yes. It's very weird because it looks like the Knicks might be making a smart basketball decision.
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It's also pretty funny to hear one pro athlete call another's contract "ridiculous." Carmelo Anthony's career earnings will pass $100 million this year and this will be his sixth straight year earning at least $13 million. But he's also not completely wrong. Someone pointed out that in that third year, Lin will be making about 83 or 84 percent as much as LeBron James. He could be very good, but it's unlikely he will be that good. |
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#123
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Lin's 3rd year is a nonsense number. The Rockets offered him $8.3M per year, guaranteed for 3 years, structured into a poison pill for the Knicks. Nobody actually thinks he's worth $15M a year.
I think the Knicks could have gotten him for less than $8.3M/yr and had the opportunity to structure it for their own benefit, but they fouled it up by letting other teams dictate the terms. If they do sign him, they'll be in cap/penalty hell in 3 years, and will have to gut the team or pay a ridiculous sum in penalties. Even the Dolans don't want to waste tens of millions of dollars, even though they frequently do. |
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#124
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That's how the restricted free agent process works. They could have made him their own offer, but I think it's unlikely he would have accepted before finding out what other teams were willing to pay.
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#125
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Once Lin says no to the initial offer, then he only gets what other teams are willing to pay. If the Knicks offer $20M over 3 years, and he declines, they are under no obligation to pay him that if the next best offer is $16M. It's a risk, a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.
Thing is, I don't know what the Knicks expected to happen. The salary cap impact has got to be common knowledge, so any GM with a functioning brain is going to poison pill the offer sheet. So they practically guaranteed themselves a contract with lousy cap implications. |
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#126
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That would work if the Knicks had been able to convince Lin and the rest of the league they were making their final offer and would not match any other deal. I don't think they would have been able to pull that off. Dealings with restricted free agents have been weird this year. I guess the bottom line is that the Rockets are willing to take that big cap hit in year three (or else they think they can trade him by then if necessary) and the Knicks probably aren't. It's hard to tell if this is good business for the Knicks or not. In basketball terms they may not need him with their Carmelo-centric offense and this is not a championship team whether they have Lin or someone like Felton running the point. They have their view on what he's worth to them financially and this contract may exceed that value. Besides, they made a lot of money from Lin already - Linsanity helped them negotiate a new cable deal. So maybe they figure they're quitting while they are ahead.
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#127
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The Knicks have confirmed they won't match the Rockets' offer, so Lin is going to Houston. Some of tonight's reporting has confirmed that after Mike Woodson vowed the Knicks would match any offer for Lin, his agent re-opened discussions with the Rockets and his 4-year/$28M contract became a 3-year/$25 million one. The Knicks were apparently upset about that, but the biggest consideration had to be financial because they would've had so much money committed to four or five guys three years from now - although of course in the NBA large expiring contracts can be valuable trade chips. I understand their reasoning but I don't know if it's the right decision. They're saving a significant amount of money with Felton, but I expect they're getting a significantly lesser player.
And with that, I guess the NBA is back to "As The Dwight Turns..." Last edited by Marley23; 07-17-2012 at 10:37 PM. |
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#128
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Knicks probably made the right decision. The merchandising sales is split among the 30 teams and not all for the Knicks, so this did not make a lot of money for them directly. As Marley said, they already got the new cable contract. Most Basketball experts doubt Lin will ever be more then an average point guard and many think he won't even be that. Knicks don't need much help to sell tickets, unless the team sucks the Knicks' Tix sell.
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#129
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Lin is only 23, averaged 18 points and 8 assists when he got his chance, and was a worldwide phenomenon. For the Knicks to cheap out now, after throwing bad money after bad for the last 12 years, is a slap in the face to their fans. He's certainly better than Ray Felton, and at worst they could have traded his expiring contract in his third year to reduce payroll, or any of the other expiring contracts they'll have. The only basketball rationale there is for not signing him is that Carmelo doesn't like giving up the ball.
I'm sure the basketball experts in the Knicks front office have convinced themselves of that, to get over what a terrible job they did negotiating with him. |
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#130
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Yeah, it sounds like they could've kept him for a three- or four-year deal for a similar amount and without the crazy jump in salary, but they never made him an actual offer. They wanted him to hit the market and either they didn't think something like this would happen, which would be stupid, or they didn't care much if they lost him this way, which is dicey. They supposedly told Lin specifically that they were also going to look at Felton and Kidd (along with Nash) and they did just that. If they're really that offended that he took their "guarantee" back to the Rockets and got a better offer - well, he'd be stupid not to. In that case their problem is with Woodson, not Lin. If this was an emotional decision, they'd better hope they luck out with their other guys. Kidd's DUI was not a promising start.
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#131
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Fairly sure I read that the Knicks were unable under NBA rules to offer Lin a similar contract to the offer sheet from the Rockets. They could match the Rockets contract offer, but not offer that deal themselves. The Knicks were limited to offering Lin a deal where each year could only be raised by (IIRC)~108% that of the year before. Obviously this prohibits the crazy balloon payment Lin is getting in Year 3. IIRC, Lin would have needed to play 4 years (might have been 5) with the Knicks to make what he will make in 3 years from the Rockets.
Of course, now I can't find where I read that... Maybe y'all can tease it out of the NBA CBA FAQ dealing with RFAs? Or the NBA's own CBA 101? (PDF) The funny thing, as a semi-Rockets fan, is that they let Dragic and Lowry get away, both of whom are better point guards than Lin, in order to give all of this money to Lin. I'd have been much happier dealing Lowry ASAP, and signing Dragic to this deal. Such is life. |
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#132
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#133
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From the FAQ, I think I understand. The Rockets were restricted in their year 1&2 salaries based on the Mid Level Exception, to ensure that the Knicks would be able to use that Exception (or the Early Bird Exception) to re-sign Lin. Since the Rockets wanted to pay Lin more than that, year 3 is where the bump up occurs. The Rockets are forced to use the average annual salary as their cap number, so they can't make a high deal on a RFA by using one of their Exceptions.
The Knicks, OTOH, need to use an Exception to sign Lin, which was part of the whole "Early Bird" ruling. Without that Exception, the Knicks can't sign Lin, they're not far enough under the cap. The EB Exception is only $5.something Million, so they couldn't sign him with an $8.3M cap hit, it had to be structured like this. James "Loyalty" Dolan was trying to cheap out on a kid who came from nowhere to breathe life into his comatose franchise. He had an easy play from his hand, here's a 3 year Max Early Bird contract, day 1 of free agency. Instead, he wanted to save a bit of scratch, wait for Lin to come back with a $3M/yr offer sheet and match it. |
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#134
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That's right. It's the Gilbert Arenas provision. The Rockets had to make an offer that the Knicks were capable of matching. Because the first two years had to be restricted to the mid-level exception amount, the bulk of the money has to be slotted in year 3 (and 4, if applicable), with the cap figure based on the average salary per year. If the Knicks matched, they wouldn't get to use the average as the cap figure.
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#135
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Since this is technically a Jeremy Lin thread, I'll add that I think he's overrated. I would not have matched if I were the Knicks. All this "extra" revenue he was going to bring in with jersey sales and overseas interest would only marginally benefit the Knicks thanks to revenue sharing. As Mark Cuban says, there is very little incentive for an NBA owner to practice good business. |
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#136
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I like DwightMare. It should probably have its own thread, but the saga is so goddamn long and absurd I don't feel I have the energy to start it right now. Anyway: I've gradually come to the conclusion that the Knicks screwed up. Is Lin overrated? Yeah, he might be. But the first two years of that contract are entirely reasonable, and while he might be overpaid in the third year, it's one year - if he's not good, he'll be an expiring contract, and if he's a significant contributor, the obvious solution to me is to trade Stoudemire, who is already declining fast and makes more money, which means his expiring contract would be even more valuable as a trade chip. I'm assuming there is no way they'll trade Carmelo and probably wouldn't want to trade Chandler since you do need to play some defense.
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#137
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To those who think Lin is getting overpaid (and what do you care what an owner wants to spend?), his average salary of $8.4 million puts him at the level of Rodney Stuckey/Devin Harris/George Hill. I don't know about you, but that seems just about right to me.
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#138
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I was careful not to say Jeremy Lin was overpaid because I agree the contract is not outlandish. I do think he's overrated, though, and I'm kind of sick of hearing about him so much. He had a nice run of, what, a dozen or 20 games? If he had done that in Portland or Washington, he'd have been a blip on the screen.
I do get the expiring contract side of the argument that the Knicks should have matched. That's a fine argument, but I guess they made their bed when they got Ray Felton, who, by the way, is a decent NBA PG. |
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#139
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Ugh, dumbass Knicks. A decade of screwups and you suddenly decide to tighten the pursestrings for a guy who brought excitement back to your franchise again? And your players start taking shots at a guy's money? There are dozens of overpaid guys in the NBA. I agree with what I heard on the morning radio show, probably Dan Patrick or Colin Cowherd, that this smacks of stereotypes and yes, racism
No matter how bad a contract is, you never hear guys talk about it and call it ridiculous. How many players called out Gilbert Arena or Rashard Lewis for their insane contracts? I have to think its a lot of posturing by Anthony and JR Smith about this new Asian kid who actually won a lot of games and showing them up, especially Anthony |
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#140
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#141
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The reason why I mention race as a possible factor was because of the discussion I heard on the radio show and that even proven bad contracts of typically black players don't get hated on by other players. Sports is a very macho thing, where men's men dominate and everyone's spewing testosterone like a bodily function. There are players who are noticeably bad who get contracts that don't get ragged on. Darko is apparently making millions, which is millions more than he deserves. Kwame Brown just got a $6 million contract. I wish there were more instances of players attacking other players for getting huge deals but there isn't. And Lin comes in, a smart Asian guy from Harvard, and instantly there's talk about him not deserving his contract? I don't buy there's no racial angle, not one bit. Maybe we can disagree on how much of it there is, but its not none
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#142
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#143
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It is about race though, the Rockets let TWO proven good pointguards go in Lowry and Dragic in order to sign Lin who they KNOW will make them more money in the long run even if he is never going to be as good as those two. That contract was offered because of the chinese audience, not for anything Lin did on the court.
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#144
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Obviously, this is Lin's agent saying what he would have done, and he could be lying, but ... Good God, the Knicks are stupid. Last edited by furt; 07-20-2012 at 05:39 PM. |
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#145
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#146
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Oh, i doubt that. The contract as structured was ridiculous and those poison pill types should really be done away with. Houston offered 8/8/8 and NY would have to pay 5/5/14 to match, with the luxury tax that last year would have costs them like 40 million.
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#147
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Here's one guy's take:
http://m.gq.com/blogs/the-q/2012/07/...social_retweet I haven't error-checked it but he makes some salient points. |
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#148
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One aspect that I think has been overlooked is Lin's basketball pedigree - he wasn't good enough to be playing in national AAU tournaments when he was a teenager, unlike JR Smith and Carmelo Anthony (WARNING: terribly formatted page - it's on it's side). He didn't win an MOP or an MVP. I think that if Lin had been part of that AAU world while growing up, the chances of him going through this would be quite slim.
Flash in the pan? Maybe. I still would've signed him tho'. |
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