Republican National Convention - A Meltdown in Progress?

[Lamar Mundane]

Things were not going well already for the Romney campaign, locked in a seemingly unbreakable three point deficit in the polls and worse in the electoral college, and the addition of Paul Ryan to the ticket did little or nothing to move those numbers.

The one bright spot the Republicans had was that Ryan had shifted the debate on to the economy, which is where Romney had desperately wanted it to be all the time, rather than on his wife's horse, his tax returns, his religion and his invention of Obamacare while in Massachusetts.

That was working well - until yesterday. Senate candidate Paul Akin and his "legitimate rape" comments have brought the national conversation back on to social issues and the seeming inability of Republicans to handle women's issues without sounding like neanderthals. Akin's now likely withdrawal from the Senate race isn't gong to help anything as it just keeps the topic hot just days before the convention starts.

If Akin does resign, the Tea Party and the Religious Right lose their one candidate that they handpicked against the wishes of the establishment and managed to get him nominated. They will not be happy.

The Religious Right, while not ever getting their preferred candidate nominated, have usually been placated by getting some of their more extreme positions included in the Republican Platform, like support for a Human Life Amendment, which Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan have previously implicitly or explicitly endorsed, but suddenly repudiated yesterday. These things are usually ignored by almost everyone including the media, but will be scrutinized and discussed next week.

Oh, and a hurricane hitting the Tampa area during the Convention is a distinct possibility.

http://icons.wunderground.com/data/i...1294_model.gif

http://i45.tinypic.com/b65zqg.jpg

So, the debate is, can the Republicans pull this off? Do they have enough ammo to put the debate back on their preferred track again? Can they make the social issues go away or should they just wholeheartedly embrace them? Will the average five point convention bounce occur this year?

P.S. Please note that I refrained from using the phrase "Perfect Storm" in a difficult decision.

P.S.S. I realize that some will see this as a rant, but I tried to avoid that while setting up the current situation accurately. Ryan didn't close the gap with Obama/Biden to any expected degree. The conversation has been changed due to Mr. Akin's comments. The support for Romney from the Tea Party and the Religious Right has been at best lukewarm, and the current issue scratches that scab.

I frankly don't see much positive momentum going into the Convention for Republicans, so I just described it as I see it.

[Lamar Mundane]

In the time between beginning writing this and posting it, Akin has issued a statement vowing to stay in the race and Religious pro-life groups have been coming to his defense.

In an ominous sign for Republican officials, some of whom are openly calling on Akin to reevaluate his candidacy entirely, Family Research Council president Tony Perkins warned that any push to remove Akin might be seen as a slight by the pro-life movement. He singled out Sen. Scott Brown (R-MA), who was the first major Republican lawmaker to call for Akin’s exit from the race.

“He should be careful because based on some of his statements there may be call for him to get out of his race,” Perkins told Politico. “He has been off the reservation on a number of Republican issues, conservative issues I should say. His support among conservatives is very shallow.”

The president of Family Research Council’s PAC also reaffirmed the group’s support for Akin, saying they “enthusiastically” back his campaign.

[Enkel]

What was the final call on the hand guns at the convention? In light of the potential hurricane, I think they should all be allowed to carry their guns. I'm betting on gun shots fired before the 50% mark of the convention.

[Katriona]

Originally Posted by Lamar Mundane

That was working well - until yesterday. Senate candidate Paul Akin and his "legitimate rape" comments

Nitpick - Todd Akin.

[Icarus]

The opportunity that a convention presents is to give the party involved a week long commercial. They can control the content and the delivery of the content. The media and the opposition will be sniping from the sidelines, but it is essentially the hosting party's show.

They will put rousing speakers (Christie, etc.) up front to do the heavy lifting and ideological firebranding. Since there is no dispute as to the candidate, that leaves Romney to graciously accepts the coronation. He will likely avoid making strong platform statements himself - as he has all along.

Any of this meltdown you are predicting will not happen - it's not in the script. Sure, some true believers will be grumbling in their beer but you won't see them on camera.

[Happy Lendervedder]

If a hurricane hits Tampa during the convention, will the Republican faithful finally realize God is punishing them for their hateful treatment of gay people?

[BrainGlutton]

Originally Posted by Lamar Mundane

In the time between beginning writing this and posting it, Akin has issued a statement vowing to stay in the race and Religious pro-life groups have been coming to his defense.

More cracks appearing in the "No Enemies To The Right" coalition . . .

[John Mace]

This flap du jour isn't going to affect the convention. Akin has offered a real apology (not just a "I'm sorry if people were offended" apology), and we'll move on to the next flap-- which might come from either the GOP or the Dems.

[Leaper]

Originally Posted by John Mace

This flap du jour isn't going to affect the convention. Akin has offered a real apology (not just a "I'm sorry if people were offended" apology), and we'll move on to the next flap-- which might come from either the GOP or the Dems.

That depends whether he's believed when he said he "misspoke," and who believes it. Frankly, I'm personally not so sure it's NOT what he really believes.

[Lochdale]

Actually his being this close despite the amount if money spent by Obama is likely giving the campaign hope. Sill Obama's to lose but the cracks are showing.

They'd spin the hurricane, no pun intended, to good effect.

[Folacin]

Originally Posted by John Mace

This flap du jour isn't going to affect the convention. Akin has offered a real apology (not just a "I'm sorry if people were offended" apology), and we'll move on to the next flap-- which might come from either the GOP or the Dems.

Of course, he's just replaced the word 'legitimate' with 'forcible' - so I'm not sure he's made things any better - http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_1...-rape-is-rape/.

[Lamar Mundane]

Originally Posted by John Mace

This flap du jour isn't going to affect the convention. Akin has offered a real apology (not just a "I'm sorry if people were offended" apology), and we'll move on to the next flap-- which might come from either the GOP or the Dems.

Unless there was another apology that I missed today, I don't see where he offered a "real" apology. On Mike Huckabee's show, he said this:

Huckabee asked Akin whether he was talking about "forcible rape" when he used the term "legitimate rape."

"I was talking about forcible rape, and it was absolutely the wrong word," Akin said.

Akin said he understands that women can become pregnant from rape. "I didn't mean to imply that wasn't the case," he said. "That does happen."

He never said that he was wrong about women's bodies being able to distinguish rape sperm from regular sperm, he just changed one word from "legitimate" to "forcible". What does that even mean? He meant that women's bodies offer special protection in the case of "forcible" rape? He stands by that story as long as a slightly different word is used? The only type of rape a woman is likely to get pregnant from is consensual, statutory rape?

Then he ends it by saying "What I said was ill-conceived, and it was wrong," Akin said on former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee's radio show Monday. "I really just want to apologize to those that I've hurt."

As for not affecting the convention, I'd wager that 90% of the Republican leadership would disagree with you, and say that it already has.

[The Great Sun Jester]

I wonder why the Republican Party even cottons to religious nuttery. They're just an embarassing association and, frankly, if the Repubs turn them a deaf ear it's not like they'd find anyone else to pander to them--they'll still get God's votes. Seems like the smartest thing the R party could do would be to start/return to espousing simple and rational social conservatism and marginalize the fundamentalist crazies.

[Icarus]

Originally Posted by Inigo Montoya

I wonder why the Republican Party even cottons to religious nuttery. They're just an embarassing association and, frankly, if the Repubs turn them a deaf ear it's not like they'd find anyone else to pander to them--they'll still get God's votes. Seems like the smartest thing the R party could do would be to start/return to espousing simple and rational social conservatism and marginalize the fundamentalist crazies.

Why on earth would they turn away reliable voters?

[Victor Charlie]

We're talking about a guy who opposed a national sex-offender database and pushed for a no-rape-in-marriage law. He's a f**king neanderthal and his "legitimate rape" line is PRECISELY his genuine belief. His only true regret is that he damaged his chances for getting elected. (Assuming Missouri isn't TOTALLY intelectually backward.)

[Leaper]

Originally Posted by Lochdale

Actually his being this close despite the amount if money spent by Obama is likely giving the campaign hope. Sill Obama's to lose but the cracks are showing.

Which candidate do you think has been the beneficiary of the most spending, whether by his own campaign, his party, or by outside interest groups?

[Lochdale]

Originally Posted by Leaper

Which candidate do you think has been the beneficiary of the most spending, whether by his own campaign, his party, or by outside interest groups?

Actually neither. The pro-Romney PACS haven't done much for him and Obama has spent a lot of money to sort of maintain the status quo. In the literal sense according to today's WSJ the pro-Romney PACS have spent more but there is another 160M coming online for Romney.

My own belief is that Obama will win unless the economy continues to struggle. Then Romney has a chance.

And conventions are as stage managed as a play in Broadwayn. There will be no meltdown.

[fumster]

Originally Posted by Katriona

Nitpick - Todd Akin.

Or as Fox News puts it: Todd Akin (D)

[Kozmik]

Originally Posted by Icarus

The opportunity that a convention presents is to give the party involved a week long commercial.

Which few people, unlike the Super Bowl commericals, actually watch.

It's not about watching the Convention - whether the Republican National Covention or the Democratic National Convention - it's about being there. I've been to a Democratic National Convention and I'm going to the Republican National Convention (mainly because I'll be in Florida on vacation next week and partly because I just want to go to a Republican National Convention if only to participate in the Occupy Tampa protests ).

For most Americans (who aren't there and don't watch) the Conventions set the tone the of the election and it is arguably important which Convention precedes which. More American watch the debates. Less Americans watch the Conventions because they are abstract. The debates are two people arguing with each other (sometimes at each other). The Conventions are speeches by a parade of people, performances, procedure, pomp, and precision.

In the preview in today's NYT, it looks like the RNC will have alot of choreography, lighting, and staging. They are trying to make the stage look more like a living room, whatever that means. They will have large screens showing images and text in a Bushesqe manner. They want to show the "real" Romney. They will highlight his religion, his business "experience", his governorship and his running of the Salt Lake City Olympics.

[Victor Charlie]

Originally Posted by Kozmik

Which few people, unlike the Super Bowl commericals, actually watch.

It's not about watching the Convention - whether the Republican National Covention or the Democratic National Convention - it's about being there. I've been to a Democratic National Convention and I'm going to the Republican National Convention (mainly because I'll be in Florida on vacation next week and partly because I just want to go to a Republican National Convention if only to participate in the Occupy Tampa protests ).

For most Americans (who aren't there and don't watch) the Conventions set the tone the of the election and it is arguably important which Convention precedes which. More American watch the debates. Less Americans watch the Conventions because they are abstract. The debates are two people arguing with each other (sometimes at each other). The Conventions are speeches by a parade of people, performances, procedure, pomp, and precision.

In the preview in today's NYT, it looks like the RNC will have alot of choreography, lighting, and staging. They are trying to make the stage look more like a living room, whatever that means. They will have large screens showing images and text in a Bushesqe manner. They want to show the "real" Romney. They will highlight his religion, his business "experience", his governorship and his running of the Salt Lake City Olympics.

Plus, special underwear for everybody!


And a planet. Everybody gets a planet.

[Finagle]

Originally Posted by Lochdale

And conventions are as stage managed as a play in Broadwayn. There will be no meltdown.

So, Ron Paul is staying home? Or is there any chance of unexpected entertainment from the Libertarian contingent?

[L. G. Butts, Ph.D.]

Originally Posted by fumster

Or as Fox News puts it: Todd Akin (D)

I know they have done this foe key events in the past, but did they really do it? Or, as they say, cite?

[WillFarnaby]

Originally Posted by Finagle

So, Ron Paul is staying home? Or is there any chance of unexpected entertainment from the Libertarian contingent?

The Republican party leadership has challenged Paul's delegates in Maine and Louisiana. It appears that Republicans like to stifle democracy not only when the opponents are Democrats, but when they're registered Republicans. Ron Paul earned a majority of delegates from Iowa,Maine, Massachusetts, Alaska, Louisiana, Nevada, and Washington. According to RNC rules any candidate who achieves a majority in 5 states can be nominated from the floor. This would be an embarrassment to Romney.

They haven't offered Ron Paul a speaking slot, but Rand Paul is going to speak. I doubt this will appease the Ron Paul folks. In any case I hope to be entertained.

[Shayna]

The minute these schmoes signed up radical nutjob Donald Trump and hired an Obama impersonator he could "fire," the RNC turned into a freaking joke. The whole thing is a #RomneyShambles waiting to happen.

[kaylasdad99]

Originally Posted by Icarus

The opportunity that a convention presents is to give the party involved a week long commercial. They can control the content and the delivery of the content. The media and the opposition will be sniping from the sidelines, but it is essentially the hosting party's show.

They will put rousing speakers (Christie, etc.) up front to do the heavy lifting and ideological firebranding. Since there is no dispute as to the candidate, that leaves Romney to graciously accepts the coronation. He will likely avoid making strong platform statements himself - as he has all along.

Any of this meltdown you are predicting will not happen - it's not in the script. Sure, some true believers will be grumbling in their beer but you won't see them on camera.

Won't that depend to some extent on who is pointing the cameras?

[Lamar Mundane]

Originally Posted by kaylasdad99

Won't that depend to some extent on who is pointing the cameras?

And holding the microphones. Typically, this is the best time for candidates to get free airtime during prime time. The last thing they want is for some story to be at the top of the headlines that they are going to be forced to comment on as a price for the free pub.

[Little Nemo]

This really hasn't changed the Romney strategy. He must realize that he's not going to win. He's hoping that Obama will lose. I don't think there's anything Romney can do at this point to move ahead of Obama. He's got to just hold his position and hope that a disaster strikes the Obama campaign before the election.

[Omg a Black Conservative]

You know, I happen to live in Florida and the odd thing is that the only political ad I've seen highlighting social issues is an Obama add with two women talking about how Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan want to take us back to the 1950's because Romney said he was committed to defunding Planned Parenthood. I guess that's all right though?

[Shayna]

Originally Posted by Omg a Black Conservative

You know, I happen to live in Florida and the odd thing is that the only political ad I've seen highlighting social issues is an Obama add with two women talking about how Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan want to take us back to the 1950's because Romney said he was committed to defunding Planned Parenthood. I guess that's all right though?

Yes; who said it wasn't?

[nogravity]

Besides the convention, Christine 'I am not a Witch' O’Donnell, is going to be headlining a Troublemakers Fest with the Tea Party.

It only cost $1200 for the full 5 day program.

A 5 day program for empowering young patriots to stop Barack Obama's 2nd term.

[Damuri Ajashi]

Originally Posted by Happy Lendervedder

If a hurricane hits Tampa during the convention, will the Republican faithful finally realize God is punishing them for their hateful treatment of gay people?

Are you fucking kidding, he's punishing them for not hating them enough. How many anti-gay marriage resolutions on the ballot this year compared to 2008 or 2010? Well, whatever the number, it's not enough.

[BrainGlutton]

Originally Posted by Omg a Black Conservative

You know, I happen to live in Florida and the odd thing is that the only political ad I've seen highlighting social issues is an Obama add with two women talking about how Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan want to take us back to the 1950's because Romney said he was committed to defunding Planned Parenthood. I guess that's all right though?

I live in Florida and the only political ad I've seen highlighting social issues was a billboard in Pinellas County saying, "OBAMA BELIEVES IN ABORTION AND GAY MARRIAGE. DO YOU?"

[Simplicio]

Originally Posted by WillFarnaby

The Republican party leadership has challenged Paul's delegates in Maine and Louisiana. It appears that Republicans like to stifle democracy not only when the opponents are Democrats, but when they're registered Republicans. Ron Paul earned a majority of delegates from Iowa,Maine, Massachusetts, Alaska, Louisiana, Nevada, and Washington. According to RNC rules any candidate who achieves a majority in 5 states can be nominated from the floor. This would be an embarrassment to Romney.

Do you have a cite? My understanding was that Paul only had a majority in four states.

[fumster]

Originally Posted by L. G. Butts, Ph.D.

I know they have done this foe key events in the past, but did they really do it? Or, as they say, cite?

Just a joke.

[Boyo Jim]

Originally Posted by nogravity

Besides the convention, Christine 'I am not a Witch' O’Donnell, is going to be headlining a Troublemakers Fest with the Tea Party.

It only cost $1200 for the full 5 day program.

Ammunition not included.

[Boyo Jim]

Originally Posted by Lamar Mundane

...
The Religious Right ... placated by ... support for a Human Life Amendment, which Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan have previously implicitly or explicitly endorsed, but suddenly repudiated yesterday. ...

Do you have a cite for this? While the HLA has some really terrible implications like outlawing hormonal birth control and ALL abortions, Romey has studiously avoided any serious discussion of the details and implications inherent in it. He did explicitly say that he supports the right to abortion in case of rape, but for a guy like him, it won't be a contradiction to also claim to support the HLA.

Yes, I know the two are contradictory, but that hasn't stopped Romney yet.

[WillFarnaby]

Originally Posted by Simplicio

Do you have a cite? My understanding was that Paul only had a majority in four states.

Louisiana (contested)

Maine (contested)

Minnesota

Nevada

Washington

Iowa

Massachusetts (legally bound to vote for Romney*)

I was mistaken about Alaska.


*All delegates are unbound according to federal law, but whether law will trump tradition is doubtful.

In any case, Minnesota, Washington, Iowa, Nevada, and either Louisiana or Maine would make 5. This would make Paul eligible for nomination.

[BobLibDem]

Originally Posted by Omg a Black Conservative

You know, I happen to live in Florida and the odd thing is that the only political ad I've seen highlighting social issues is an Obama add with two women talking about how Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan want to take us back to the 1950's because Romney said he was committed to defunding Planned Parenthood. I guess that's all right though?

Is it not true that Romney and Ryan want to defund Planned Parenthood? Do they not seek a return to the days of Ozzie and Harriett, Leave it to Beaver, and Father Knows Best? Do they not want to put women and uppity minorities in their place?

[ShibbOleth]

If they make a hurricane hit my house, can I sue them?

The last hurricane to actually make landfall was in 1921, if I have it correct. We do get a lot of hurricanes that flirt with us, so maybe just a big rain event with some decent winds would be okay.

[BobLibDem]

Originally Posted by WillFarnaby

In any case, Minnesota, Washington, Iowa, Nevada, and either Louisiana or Maine would make 5. This would make Paul eligible for nomination.

I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but Ron Paul is not going to be nominated. There will be no votes cast for Ron Paul at the convention. It's time to do what Ron Paul supporters do, and that's start spreading the news that your man is destined for the presidency next time. Yes, time to start the Paul 2016 campaign.

[The Great Sun Jester]

Originally Posted by Icarus

Why on earth would they turn away reliable voters?

Who else are they gonna vote for/campaign under? If you remove the loonies from the Rebublican party you still have a formidable counterbalance for the Democrats except it won't embarass itself as often, and if the loonies want anything like a political voice they'll still vote Republican.

[nogravity]

Originally Posted by BobLibDem

I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but Ron Paul is not going to be nominated. There will be no votes cast for Ron Paul at the convention. It's time to do what Ron Paul supporters do, and that's start spreading the news that your man is destined for the presidency next time. Yes, time to start the Paul 2016 campaign.

He'll be 81 in 2016. I think they'll try to go with the one with the dead squirrel on his head, Rand Paul.

[nogravity]

Originally Posted by ShibbOleth

If they make a hurricane hit my house, can I sue them?

The last hurricane to actually make landfall was in 1921, if I have it correct. We do get a lot of hurricanes that flirt with us, so maybe just a big rain event with some decent winds would be okay.

That's correct. But tropical storms, especially slow moving ones can really drop the rain and seeing how we're at or close to saturation level now, it could really be a big mess.

Right now there's a depression heading towards the Lesser Antilles which should be TS Isaac by later on today. The spaghetti models are all over the place with this one.

[BrainGlutton]

Originally Posted by WillFarnaby

Louisiana (contested)

Maine (contested)

Minnesota

Nevada

Washington

Iowa

Massachusetts (legally bound to vote for Romney*)

I was mistaken about Alaska.


*All delegates are unbound according to federal law, but whether law will trump tradition is doubtful.

In any case, Minnesota, Washington, Iowa, Nevada, and either Louisiana or Maine would make 5. This would make Paul eligible for nomination.

Fine, but if they try to do anything with that at the convention, that would not be a floor fight; that would be a meltdown. It would shatter what momentum Romney has going into November.

[Omg a Black Conservative]

Originally Posted by Shayna

Yes; who said it wasn't?

And why is it all right whereas the opposite (Republicans doing similar) is not?

[WillFarnaby]

Originally Posted by BobLibDem

I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but Ron Paul is not going to be nominated. There will be no votes cast for Ron Paul at the convention. It's time to do what Ron Paul supporters do, and that's start spreading the news that your man is destined for the presidency next time. Yes, time to start the Paul 2016 campaign.

I'm not making a prediction. If I was I'd probably agree with you. Im just saying it could be possible according to the rules. Ron Paul delegates have had an outsized influence at many state conventions. It's not entirely impossible that they attempt some kind of stunt in Tampa.

Originally Posted by BrainGlutton

Fine, but if they try to do anything with that at the convention, that would not be a floor fight; that would be a meltdown. It would shatter what momentum Romney has going into November.

I don't care about Romney's momentum. I just want to be entertained. While the Paul delegates will not have the numbers for a floor fight, they may have the numbers to put his name into nomination. This would guarantee him a speaking role.

[Lamar Mundane]

Originally Posted by Boyo Jim

Do you have a cite for this? While the HLA has some really terrible implications like outlawing hormonal birth control and ALL abortions, Romey has studiously avoided any serious discussion of the details and implications inherent in it. He did explicitly say that he supports the right to abortion in case of rape, but for a guy like him, it won't be a contradiction to also claim to support the HLA.

Yes, I know the two are contradictory, but that hasn't stopped Romney yet.

The video features an exchange from Fox News’ “Huckabee” show when host and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee asked Romney whether he’d support redefining personhood in an effort to end abortion.
“Would you have supported the constitutional amendment that would have established the definition of life at conception?” Huckabee asked.
“Absolutely,” Romney replied.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HZCov...layer_embedded

[Algorithm]

Originally Posted by WillFarnaby

*All delegates are unbound according to federal law, but whether law will trump tradition is doubtful.

What federal law?

[WillFarnaby]

Originally Posted by Algorithm

What federal law?

Here:

“No person, whether acting under color of law or otherwise, shall intimidate, threaten, coerce, or attempt to intimidate, threaten, or coerce any other person for the purpose of interfering with the right of such other person to vote or to vote as he may choose, or of causing such other person to vote for, or not to vote for, any candidate for the office of President, Vice President, presidential elector, Member of the Senate, or Member of the House of Representatives, Delegates or Commissioners from the Territories or possessions, at any general, special, or primary election held solely or in part for the purpose of selecting or electing any such candidate." - 42 USC § 1971 - Voting Rights.

The response from the rest of the Republican Party was that this does not account for conventions or nominations. However, this latest finding will trump that claim. 11 CFR 100.2 - Election (2 U.S.C. 431(1)) clearly states that:

“
“Caucus or Convention. A caucus or convention of a political party is an election if the caucus or convention has the authority to select a nominee for federal office on behalf of that party.” - 11 CFR 100.2 - Election (2 U.S.C. 431(1)).

Of course even if the Massachusetts angle doesn't pan out, Paul delegates still hold the majority in 5 states if the Maine or Louisiana delegation manage to be seated.

[babygoat666]

Originally Posted by WillFarnaby

The Republican party leadership has challenged Paul's delegates in Maine and Louisiana. It appears that Republicans like to stifle democracy not only when the opponents are Democrats, but when they're registered Republicans. Ron Paul earned a majority of delegates from Iowa,Maine, Massachusetts, Alaska, Louisiana, Nevada, and Washington. According to RNC rules any candidate who achieves a majority in 5 states can be nominated from the floor. This would be an embarrassment to Romney.

They haven't offered Ron Paul a speaking slot, but Rand Paul is going to speak. I doubt this will appease the Ron Paul folks. In any case I hope to be entertained.

May I ask how Ron Paul, earning a majority of delegates in those states despite capturing a negligible share of the vote, is considered democracy?