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  #1  
Old 03-15-2014, 11:31 PM
astro astro is offline
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Any realistic chance that that the missing plane landed safely & all the passengers are still alive?

Just curious. Is it even a realistic possibility at this point that the MH370 plane was landed and the passengers are in captivity?

Last edited by astro; 03-15-2014 at 11:34 PM..
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  #2  
Old 03-15-2014, 11:57 PM
sinjin sinjin is offline
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Realistically I have no idea, but I hope the plane landed safely and the passengers will be eventually be released. But who the hell knows?
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  #3  
Old 03-16-2014, 12:12 AM
Nawth Chucka Nawth Chucka is offline
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There was that school bus of kids kidnapped and held. There'd have to be an organized group in on it unless the passengers aren't meant to remain alive. Otherwise they need feeding, water and all the necessities of life plus the great odds many will try to escape. Now, if there was a refueling plane in on this, could they still be in the air - that's my question.
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  #4  
Old 03-16-2014, 12:22 AM
SpoilerVirgin SpoilerVirgin is offline
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The main thing is that if it did happen, it would be unprecedented. I'm fairly certain that there has never been an incident of a plane completely disappearing and later being discovered with the passengers safe but taken prisoner. So we would have to calculate the probability based on a current rate of 0%. That doesn't mean that this couldn't be the first time, but it seems unlikely.
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  #5  
Old 03-16-2014, 12:36 AM
Senegoid Senegoid is offline
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Originally Posted by Nawth Chucka View Post
There was that school bus of kids kidnapped and held.
This refers to the Chowchilla kidnapping. The bus was then buried in a gravel quarry in another city about two hours drive away (Livermore).

Picture burying a modern jetliner in a gravel quarry. :-)

ETA: Okay, reading that Wiki, it seems that the bus wasn't buried. The kids and driver were transferred to another vehicle that was buried (apparently ahead of time).

Last edited by Senegoid; 03-16-2014 at 12:39 AM..
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  #6  
Old 03-16-2014, 12:46 AM
tellyworth tellyworth is offline
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There aren't many places you can land a 777 without anyone noticing.
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  #7  
Old 03-16-2014, 12:47 AM
Trinopus Trinopus is offline
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Originally Posted by Nawth Chucka View Post
. . . Now, if there was a refueling plane in on this, could they still be in the air - that's my question.
Passenger airliners cannot refuel in the air.

It's pretty darn close to inconceivable ("you keep using that word") that they could have found anywhere to land safely. The very best hope would have been ditching in shallow water, nearby land.
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  #8  
Old 03-16-2014, 01:11 AM
Ranger Jeff Ranger Jeff is offline
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Originally Posted by astro View Post
Just curious. Is it even a realistic possibility at this point that the MH370 plane was landed and the passengers are in captivity?
I'd suggest that is the best case scenario.
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  #9  
Old 03-16-2014, 01:55 AM
usedtobe usedtobe is offline
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A week without a ransom demand?

Who is going to feed 240 people for a week without saying anything? I don't think even North Korea is that far out of touch (Dennis Rodman not withstanding)
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  #10  
Old 03-16-2014, 02:05 AM
scootergirl scootergirl is offline
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Originally Posted by tellyworth View Post
There aren't many places you can land a 777 without anyone noticing.
Yes. This is exactly what my boyfriend and me were discussing. I can't think of any place where this could have happened. A small plane? Sure, definitely quite possible.
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  #11  
Old 03-16-2014, 05:39 AM
Raguleader Raguleader is online now
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The question is how many airfields exist where a plane that size could land safely. Bonus points if the plane being able to take off again isn't that important. Did a quick Google earlier today and the short version is that the Boeing 777 needs around 3,000-6,000 feet of stopping distance to land (depending on weather, runway conditions, weight of the plane, etc. etc. etc.) If any of those places have large aircraft hangers where the plane could quickly be hidden from sight, it'd be pretty much impossible to find if nobody not in on the secret saw it land.

For comparison, the Class A Airfields, built for the RAF during WWII, included runways of a minimum length of 6,000 feet, and some more googling suggests that a minimum landing roll of 3,000 feet was common for the Boeing B-17 (much smaller than the 777, I can only assume the 777 has much more effective brakes).

Last edited by Raguleader; 03-16-2014 at 05:40 AM..
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  #12  
Old 03-16-2014, 06:20 AM
Richard Pearse Richard Pearse is offline
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Originally Posted by usedtobe View Post
A week without a ransom demand?

Who is going to feed 240 people for a week without saying anything? I don't think even North Korea is that far out of touch (Dennis Rodman not withstanding)
What makes you think any ransom demand would be made public?
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  #13  
Old 03-16-2014, 08:59 AM
aruvqan aruvqan is offline
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Couldn't you land one on a large enough hunk of flat grassland? If you didn't feel the need to be able to fly it again and all you wanted were the passengers for whatever reason. Fly it north to some steppes/tundra, land it and cover it with camo netting while hauling the passengers away [or Bataan death marching them] somewhere to hold them.

Or film the next season of Lost .... could go either way. Maybe .... Aliens!
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  #14  
Old 03-16-2014, 10:03 AM
nevadaexile nevadaexile is offline
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There seems to be a low probability of this occurring.
Why?
  1. The plane's size would make it visible to people for miles around - Even if you had a remote abandoned airfield, you'd have to fly over populated areas to get there. Since Asia is the most populated region on Earth, it seems that someone would have seen the aircraft flying overhead or descending.
  2. How do you control 239 people? - Assuming that this wasn't the work of a state level actor or a large terrorist group, how could you control such a large group for at least a week?
  3. Communication devices - At least some of teh passengers would find a method to retain their communication devices (cell phones,sat phones,tablets,etc) Why haven't they tried to communicate if they were alive?
  4. Why would any group bother? - Malaysia is not a wealthy country and China does not seem to be a nation which would indulge terrorists by paying a ransom or ransoms for its citizens. Even if a group COULD take such a large number of people and an airplane captive, what would they expect to gain?

Unfortunately, as time passes it seems clear that this will ultimately be the recovery of the airframe or its recording devices from the sea floor, rather than a hostage situation.
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  #15  
Old 03-16-2014, 10:09 AM
Nawth Chucka Nawth Chucka is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Trinopus View Post
Passenger airliners cannot refuel in the air.

It's pretty darn close to inconceivable ("you keep using that word") that they could have found anywhere to land safely. The very best hope would have been ditching in shallow water, nearby land.
For that matter, ditch in shallow water somewhere either deserted or where another plane outline wouldn't be noticed among others (old planes used as artificial reefs) and hide in plain sight. Passengers herded into smallish boats, smaller groups being easier to control.
But this is all supposing that the threat of killing less than 300 people would be enough to move money or power from one group to another. Killing that many people (even civilians, some of the children) doesn't cause a long-term widespread outrage these days, awfully enough.
I'm in the camp that there's no way the plane landed safely; if it crashed and they're alive that would be stunning to me after 9 days now.
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  #16  
Old 03-16-2014, 11:02 AM
Raguleader Raguleader is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aruvqan View Post
Couldn't you land one on a large enough hunk of flat grassland? If you didn't feel the need to be able to fly it again and all you wanted were the passengers for whatever reason. Fly it north to some steppes/tundra, land it and cover it with camo netting while hauling the passengers away [or Bataan death marching them] somewhere to hold them.

Or film the next season of Lost .... could go either way. Maybe .... Aliens!
Most dedicated runways for heavy aircraft operations will have runway surfaces between 10 inches and 4 feet thick (including the rock that gets laid down underneath the pavement to act as a foundation). Granted, a lot of that is due to the repeated wear-and-tear that a major airport might have, so grassland might work once if you don't mind the risk of hitting a pothole at a few hundred miles an hour.
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  #17  
Old 03-16-2014, 11:07 AM
Indian Indian is offline
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Doper dgrdfd posted this link in another thread. post 521


http://www.bigbreakingnews.com/2014/...l#.UyW7a4Wa90s

Last edited by Indian; 03-16-2014 at 11:07 AM..
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  #18  
Old 03-16-2014, 11:36 AM
Jackmannii Jackmannii is offline
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No chance.
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  #19  
Old 03-16-2014, 12:05 PM
Patty O'Furniture Patty O'Furniture is offline
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Don't worry, Uri Geller's on the case.
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  #20  
Old 03-16-2014, 12:16 PM
doorhinge doorhinge is offline
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It's possible. It's difficult to determine because the media reports have been, literally, all over the place. This could have been a trial run for future hijackings. Being able to make a plane vanish from sight is terrorizing and not being able to locate any plane wreckage, even more so.

The plane could also be repainted and electronic signatures changed in order to slip it into the normal or expected flight plan of an existing MH370 route. The plane could be used to later carry any kind of dangerous or explosive cargo to a future point of impact.

Or it crashed into the sea.

China seems to offering up several red herrings about it's possible location. Maybe China has it?
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  #21  
Old 03-16-2014, 12:26 PM
buddha_david buddha_david is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tellyworth View Post
There aren't many places you can land a 777 without anyone noticing.
There aren't many places you can fly a 777 without anyone noticing, either. Except over open ocean, where modern radar & satellites still can't cover everything.

Make no mistake, there is ZERO chance of the plane having been safely & secretly landed anywhere on the ground. That entire concept is impossible. Perhaps that was the hijackers' intent (if that's indeed what actually happened) and perhaps the passengers revolted in a United 93 style scenario -- but until the wreckage is located (which may never happen, but let's not give up hope) we may never know for certain what really happened.
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  #22  
Old 03-16-2014, 12:30 PM
Octarine Octarine is online now
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Is it impossible that the passengers are still alive? No. Is it wildly improbable? I'd say so. Right now, the plane is most likely at the bottom of the ocean. As well as all the people.
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  #23  
Old 03-16-2014, 12:42 PM
buddha_david buddha_david is offline
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Sorry, but I'm sticking with impossible. Here's the question everyone must ask: "Why?"

Why haven't there been any eyewitness sightings of a mysterious plane over land? SE Asia's the most crowded place on Earth.

Why haven't there been any mysterious radar trackings? The coastlines of all major countries, including Australia, are watched night and day for obvious post-9/11 reasons.

Why haven't any ransom demands been made? You don't hijack a plane filled with 240 civilians and then pretend like it never happened. That's thoroughly illogical.

As for "keeping the evidence secret", again...why? What would be the purpose of covering up anything up, while the entire world is watching?

No, I think we're safe to assume that the plane went down in the ocean, and nobody was spared. Any other scenario exists solely in science fiction, or crazy conspiracy theories (and no doubt, we'll have a plethora of both before long...)
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  #24  
Old 03-16-2014, 12:45 PM
Nawth Chucka Nawth Chucka is offline
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Originally Posted by Indian View Post
Doper dgrdfd posted this link in another thread. post 521


http://www.bigbreakingnews.com/2014/...l#.UyW7a4Wa90s
Linky no worky.
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  #25  
Old 03-16-2014, 12:50 PM
Musicat Musicat is offline
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Originally Posted by tellyworth View Post
There aren't many places you can land a 777 without anyone noticing.
There aren't many places where an airliner can crash without anyone noticing, either, yet one or the other seems to have happened.
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  #26  
Old 03-16-2014, 12:55 PM
Musicat Musicat is offline
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The plane's been found. It's on Craigslist. Cheap.
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  #27  
Old 03-16-2014, 12:56 PM
Digital is the new Analog Digital is the new Analog is offline
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What about a scenario the plane is landed at a runway that gets used sometimes? Perhaps a state player or something..the problem everyone is raising about landing the plane is that people would notice. I think the trick is doing it in a way that isn't noticed as being different.

Not that I think it's likely..I tend to believe the plane is in pieces somewhere. But for the sake of conversation...
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  #28  
Old 03-16-2014, 01:52 PM
buddha_david buddha_david is offline
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Originally Posted by Musicat View Post
There aren't many places where an airliner can crash without anyone noticing, either, yet one or the other seems to have happened.
No, it's down in the ocean somewhere. And the ocean is freaking HUGE. Seriously, look at a map of the U.S.A. and then imagine trying to find an airplane parked on the ground somewhere, with no city lights or geographical features to guide you. And then look at the size of the Indian Ocean. And remember, at this point, you're not even looking for a plane anymore, but only floating pieces or an oil slick or other tell-tale signs of what the water swallowed. Chances are, unless we get extremely lucky, Malaysia 370 will never be found.
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  #29  
Old 03-16-2014, 02:39 PM
Musicat Musicat is offline
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Originally Posted by buddha_david View Post
Chances are, unless we get extremely lucky, Malaysia 370 will never be found.
Never is a long time, my friend.
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  #30  
Old 03-16-2014, 03:11 PM
Zebra Zebra is offline
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Originally Posted by Musicat View Post
There aren't many places where an airliner can crash without anyone noticing, either, yet one or the other seems to have happened.

There are a lot places a plane can crash and not be noticed. The ocean for one.


If someone did hijack the plane to 'steal it', they probably would have killed all the passengers and kept the plane, to be used at a future date.
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  #31  
Old 03-16-2014, 03:42 PM
Gagundathar Gagundathar is offline
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At this point, unless the S.H.I.E.L.D helicarrier was there for it to land on in midair (in stealth mode), then the airplane, crew and passengers are all somewhere deep beneath the Indian Ocean.

And don't give me any guff about the length of the landing area of the helicarrier.
Two words: force fields.

I was hoping this was a hijacking, but that seems extremely unlikely now.
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  #32  
Old 03-16-2014, 03:48 PM
CatherineZeta CatherineZeta is offline
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In which case it probably crashed. I don't see how it would be possible to kill all the passengers without seriously damaging the plane leading to it crashing or just flat out crashing it. Maybe the intent was to land somewhere, drop the passengers off, then go somewhere else? I don't know if the plane would have had enough fuel to do that though and how it could have done that without anyone seeing.

Maybe this was a case of a loony, suicidal pilot. Or incredibly dumb hijackers who didn't think this through properly. Wouldn't it have been a lot easier to buy a plane through the black market if stealing a plane was the intent?

Whatever happened, it's very tragic for the passengers and flight crew (assuming this wasn't something the pilots were in on).
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  #33  
Old 03-16-2014, 04:31 PM
buddha_david buddha_david is offline
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Originally Posted by Gagundathar View Post
I was hoping this was a hijacking, but that seems extremely unlikely now.
What's so unlikely about it? After distilling all the news reports, this does appear to be the most likely scenario.

Quote:
Originally Posted by CatherineZeta View Post
Maybe this was a case of a loony, suicidal pilot.
Or this, I suppose.
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  #34  
Old 03-16-2014, 04:34 PM
Musicat Musicat is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Indian View Post
Post has now been deleted. Looks like the Greek freighter has vanished as well, and no one is paying attention to the "debris field". Big Breaking News does not look like a reliable site.
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  #35  
Old 03-16-2014, 04:43 PM
John Mace John Mace is offline
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I think the plane is Lost.
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  #36  
Old 03-16-2014, 06:27 PM
nevadaexile nevadaexile is offline
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Originally Posted by buddha_david View Post
No, it's down in the ocean somewhere. And the ocean is freaking HUGE. Seriously, look at a map of the U.S.A. and then imagine trying to find an airplane parked on the ground somewhere, with no city lights or geographical features to guide you. And then look at the size of the Indian Ocean. And remember, at this point, you're not even looking for a plane anymore, but only floating pieces or an oil slick or other tell-tale signs of what the water swallowed. Chances are, unless we get extremely lucky, Malaysia 370 will never be found.
Since the US Navy is involved and they have access to the most advanced sonar gear on the planet, the plane will eventually be found.

However, depending upon the depth where the plane is located, it may be unrecoverable unless someone with deep pockets decides to bring together the necessary assets to retrieve it or at least enough of it to determine why the crash may have occurred. Unfortunately, Malaysian Air doesn't seem to be that party and the Chinese government may have to foot the bill.
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  #37  
Old 03-16-2014, 06:43 PM
tapu tapu is offline
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Go here, then scroll down to see the map of red dots showing where it could land.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...rash-live.html
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  #38  
Old 03-16-2014, 06:48 PM
nearwildheaven nearwildheaven is offline
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Originally Posted by SpoilerVirgin View Post
The main thing is that if it did happen, it would be unprecedented. I'm fairly certain that there has never been an incident of a plane completely disappearing and later being discovered with the passengers safe but taken prisoner. So we would have to calculate the probability based on a current rate of 0%. That doesn't mean that this couldn't be the first time, but it seems unlikely.
Some people believed that about KAL 007, and some people still believe it about Flight 77 on 9/11. Didn't happen either time.
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  #39  
Old 03-16-2014, 07:20 PM
CatherineZeta CatherineZeta is offline
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Originally Posted by nevadaexile View Post
However, depending upon the depth where the plane is located, it may be unrecoverable unless someone with deep pockets decides to bring together the necessary assets to retrieve it or at least enough of it to determine why the crash may have occurred. Unfortunately, Malaysian Air doesn't seem to be that party and the Chinese government may have to foot the bill.
Do you think the US would also foot the bill considering that there were US citizens on board?
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  #40  
Old 03-16-2014, 07:29 PM
TonySinclair TonySinclair is offline
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Originally Posted by tellyworth View Post
There aren't many places you can land a 777 without anyone noticing.
Ahem.

http://i.imgur.com/Ee6MBIs.jpg
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  #41  
Old 03-16-2014, 07:39 PM
usedtobe usedtobe is offline
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Do the bleeding-edge underwater robots still even have depth limits?

If a robot can get to it, the black boxes will be retrieved.

I always thought the last transmission being "Good night" was a bit off...
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  #42  
Old 03-16-2014, 07:42 PM
tapu tapu is offline
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Some suggestion just in the last few hours that the latest "pings" may have come from the plane while on the ground....
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  #43  
Old 03-16-2014, 07:45 PM
Musicat Musicat is offline
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Originally Posted by tapu View Post
Some suggestion just in the last few hours that the latest "pings" may have come from the plane while on the ground....
Ah, the fog of war. Even if that is true, it's unlikely any passengers are still alive. What happened to all their cellphones?

Quote:
Originally Posted by usedtobe View Post
Do the bleeding-edge underwater robots still even have depth limits?
Not if they were able to get to the Marianas Trench, once. In 1960.

Last edited by Musicat; 03-16-2014 at 07:47 PM..
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  #44  
Old 03-16-2014, 07:50 PM
CatherineZeta CatherineZeta is offline
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So maybe it crashed on the ground somewhere? The Andaman Islands are very remote and some of them uninhabited although it is hard to imagine something like that happening without the Indian military detecting it on their radar. And someone would have had to have seen or heard the crash. Maybe the locals heard it, but didn't see it or find the source of what they heard and since they're so isolated are unaware of what happened therefore haven't reported it?
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  #45  
Old 03-16-2014, 07:53 PM
Shagnasty Shagnasty is offline
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Originally Posted by Musicat View Post
Not if they were able to get to the Marianas Trench, once. In 1960.
Of all the terrible things James Cameron has done in his life, perhaps the worst was breaking the Mariana Trench meme for us in 2012.

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/n...s-science-sub/

Last edited by Shagnasty; 03-16-2014 at 07:54 PM..
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  #46  
Old 03-16-2014, 07:56 PM
tapu tapu is offline
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Originally Posted by Musicat View Post
Ah, the fog of war. Even if that is true, it's unlikely any passengers are still alive. What happened to all their cellphones?.
They... were taken? I make no reference to passengers being alive, or to anything else beyond the map I sourced which shows how many possible landing spots there could be and the latest reporting that communication may have come from the plane while back on ground.
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  #47  
Old 03-16-2014, 07:56 PM
PaulParkhead PaulParkhead is offline
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Originally Posted by usedtobe View Post

I always thought the last transmission being "Good night" was a bit off...
Not necessarily. Pilots often use that phrasing to indicate their last transmission to a particular ATC segment or controller. So you might hear something like:

"Pigfucker 9, contact Boston Center 121.55, goodbye."
"Boston Center 121.55, Pigfucker 9, goodnight."

Of course, if the pilot operating the radio said "goodnight" after he knew he was hijacked and probably flying to his doom then it does have a degree of poignancy, but it's not inherently suspicious.
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  #48  
Old 03-16-2014, 08:07 PM
CatherineZeta CatherineZeta is offline
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Originally Posted by tapu View Post
They... were taken? I make no reference to passengers being alive, or to anything else beyond the map I sourced which shows how many possible landing spots there could be and the latest reporting that communication may have come from the plane while back on ground.
But the map you linked to showed landing spots in heavily populated countries with modern technology such as radar to detect any planes. I mean, spots on the coast of Australia were marked. There is absolutely no way such a large plane could land undetected in Australia. And India is a modern country with modern military technology not to mention tons of people- how on Earth could they have missed a giant plane landing? All the other locations on the map are also heavily populated. Even crashing in a Vietnamese jungle would have been noticed by someone.

The only possible location where an undetected crash could have happened- as far as I'm aware- would be the Andaman Islands as some are uninhabited and the people there are mostly disconnected from the outside world therefore may not have been able to determine that it was a plane crash if they only heard it, but didn't see it, and may not be aware that there is currently a search for a plane occurring.
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  #49  
Old 03-16-2014, 08:08 PM
Richard Pearse Richard Pearse is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PaulParkhead View Post
Not necessarily. Pilots often use that phrasing to indicate their last transmission to a particular ATC segment or controller. So you might hear something like:

"Pigfucker 9, contact Boston Center 121.55, goodbye."
"Boston Center 121.55, Pigfucker 9, goodnight."
If he said it like that then I agree it is quite normal, but from what I've read he didn't read back the frequency which is not normal.
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  #50  
Old 03-16-2014, 08:09 PM
tapu tapu is offline
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Originally Posted by CatherineZeta View Post
But the map you linked to showed landing spots in heavily populated countries with modern technology such as radar to detect any planes. I mean, spots on the coast of Australia were marked. There is absolutely no way such a large plane could land undetected in Australia. And India is a modern country with modern military technology not to mention tons of people- how on Earth could they have missed a giant plane landing? All the other locations on the map are also heavily populated. Even crashing in a Vietnamese jungle would have been noticed by someone.

The only possible location where an undetected crash could have happened- as far as I'm aware- would be the Andaman Islands as some are uninhabited and the people there are mostly disconnected from the outside world therefore may not have been able to determine that it was a plane crash if they only heard it, but didn't see it, and may not be aware that there is currently a search for a plane occurring.
Okay. You may be right that one or even none of those dots is a possible. I don't know about all of them.

Last edited by tapu; 03-16-2014 at 08:11 PM..
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