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Old 04-23-2017, 01:09 PM
crucible crucible is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2011
Location: North Carolina
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The actual chance of rain during the day

so often, we see an hour by hour prediction where the chance of rain, might be, for example, 20% at 8 am, 40% at 9, 40 again at 10, etc.... to 10% at 4 pm.

I am thinking that the chance of rain sometime during the day is far higher than the chance at any particular hour, but what math would be appropriate to estimate the overall probability?

One way might be to multiply the chance of NO rain for each hour throughout the day, and subtract the answer from 100.

Is there a better way?
 

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