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Old 05-16-2017, 08:42 PM
astro astro is offline
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The Professor who predicted Trump would win and then be impeached looks like an oracle

Lest we forget

Professor predicted Trump win, says he will be impeached

Quote:
"The Republicans are nervous about Donald Trump," Lichtman said. "He is a loose cannon. Nobody knows what he really believes or really where he stands. He can't be controlled. The Republicans would vastly prefer to have Mike Pence, an absolutely predictable down-the-pipe conservative Republican."
  #2  
Old 05-16-2017, 10:03 PM
marshmallow marshmallow is offline
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During the election there were CTs that the Republicans would impeach Trump so they could get their boy Pence in there. That was at least wrong so far as they don't seem particularly eager to do so.
  #3  
Old 05-17-2017, 07:25 AM
JKellyMap JKellyMap is offline
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Originally Posted by marshmallow View Post
During the election there were CTs that the Republicans would impeach Trump so they could get their boy Pence in there. That was at least wrong so far as they don't seem particularly eager to do so.
I wouldn't be so sure. Seems like several Republican lawmakers are riding the pace of Trump's idiocies/treasons just slowly enough to avoid alienating most hard-core Trump voters, but quickly enough to keep up the momentum toward impeachment and resignation or removal.
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Old 05-17-2017, 07:28 AM
BobLibDem BobLibDem is offline
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He will not be impeached. Like Nixon, he will resign when told that impeachment and conviction are inevitable.
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Old 05-17-2017, 07:34 AM
Little Nemo Little Nemo is offline
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He will not be impeached. Like Nixon, he will resign when told that impeachment and conviction are inevitable.
I doubt it. Trump has a history of denying reality when it's not telling him what he wants to hear. He'll be convinced he'll be able to make a deal to stay in office.
  #6  
Old 05-17-2017, 07:42 AM
AK84 AK84 is online now
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Originally Posted by Little Nemo View Post
I doubt it. Trump has a history of denying reality when it's not telling him what he wants to hear. He'll be convinced he'll be able to make a deal to stay in office.
Reality was that he had no chance of winning any delegates, then winning any States, then being nominated and then winning the Presidency.............
He takes Reality and does unmentionable things to it.

Last edited by AK84; 05-17-2017 at 07:43 AM.
  #7  
Old 05-17-2017, 09:33 AM
John Mace John Mace is online now
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He will not be impeached. Like Nixon, he will resign when told that impeachment and conviction are inevitable.
I agree. The only problem is, he won't be told that, because it won't be inevitable.
  #8  
Old 05-17-2017, 10:15 AM
RickJay RickJay is offline
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Originally Posted by BobLibDem View Post
He will not be impeached. Like Nixon, he will resign when told that impeachment and conviction are inevitable.
Well, I'm going to say that if impeachment and conviction are clearly inevitable and Trump resigns as a result, I'd consider the prediction correct and say the guy deserves to win any bets he made. Nixon may have chosen to jump but his own party was about to push. Close enough.

And Trump is so stubborn and stupid I would not be surprised if the dumb asshole fought all the way to the bitter end, desperately trying to threaten Senators who had long since stopped taking his phone calls. He's proven the doubters wrong again and again. His own track record will contribute to his refusal to give up.

Nixon, remember, was a veteran politician. He served in Congress. He served as Vice President. The guy knew more about politics than most people could imagine knowing. When his own party viziers came into his office and said "Pack your things or we'll do it for you" he knew the jig was up. He knew Barry Goldwater was not shitting him. Trump doesn't have that. If Mitch McConnell and Paul Ryan walk into his office, sit down, and tell him straight up the math says his Presidency is doomed, he will say they are Weak and Sad, and that he can make a deal, the best deal.

Last edited by RickJay; 05-17-2017 at 10:21 AM.
  #9  
Old 05-17-2017, 10:44 AM
SmartAlecCat SmartAlecCat is offline
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I doubt it. Trump has a history of denying reality when it's not telling him what he wants to hear. He'll be convinced he'll be able to make a deal to stay in office.
He often says he never settles lawsuits too, but he still settles them in the end...
  #10  
Old 05-17-2017, 12:48 PM
DrDeth DrDeth is offline
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Trump will not be removed from Office. I am willing to bet on this.
  #11  
Old 05-17-2017, 12:50 PM
DrDeth DrDeth is offline
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Originally Posted by marshmallow View Post
During the election there were CTs that the Republicans would impeach Trump so they could get their boy Pence in there. That was at least wrong so far as they don't seem particularly eager to do so.
Bricker would point out the impeaching Trump would not get Pence in.
  #12  
Old 05-17-2017, 01:24 PM
John Mace John Mace is online now
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Bricker would point out the impeaching Trump would not get Pence in.
He'd be right. Surely you are not going to this again, are you???
  #13  
Old 05-17-2017, 01:42 PM
DrDeth DrDeth is offline
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He'd be right. Surely you are not going to this again, are you???
Maybe I am wrong. Hey marshmallow, astro, etc, when you used the word "Impeachment', you meant it as shorthand to "Impeached and removed from Office" just like everyone else does, right?
  #14  
Old 05-17-2017, 03:22 PM
erysichthon erysichthon is offline
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Originally Posted by marshmallow View Post
During the election there were CTs that the Republicans would impeach Trump so they could get their boy Pence in there. That was at least wrong so far as they don't seem particularly eager to do so.
I agree. Mostly what we're seeing from the GOP now is a lot of excuses and wagon-circling. Even if Comey testifies publicly, they'll dismiss it as the ranting of a disgruntled former employee.

I do think there's a nonzero chance that Trump will resign in a fit of pique one of these days. He's erratic enough to pull something like that. But impeached by his own party? He'd have to do something exponentially worse than anything he's done already before that would even be considered. The Comey stuff doesn't even come close.
  #15  
Old 05-17-2017, 03:26 PM
enalzi enalzi is offline
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Originally Posted by DrDeth View Post
Maybe I am wrong. Hey marshmallow, astro, etc, when you used the word "Impeachment', you meant it as shorthand to "Impeached and removed from Office" just like everyone else does, right?
I believe the proper term is "Frankenstein's Impeachment"
  #16  
Old 05-17-2017, 03:29 PM
erysichthon erysichthon is offline
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Originally Posted by DrDeth View Post
Maybe I am wrong. Hey marshmallow, astro, etc, when you used the word "Impeachment', you meant it as shorthand to "Impeached and removed from Office" just like everyone else does, right?
No.
  #17  
Old 05-17-2017, 03:44 PM
RTFirefly RTFirefly is online now
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In a nation with as many pundits, analysts, and think-tankers as we have, it's totally believable that at least one of them would have predicted Trump's election and impeachment.

Also, Lichtman heavily hedged on his prediction that Trump would win.
  #18  
Old 05-17-2017, 03:45 PM
Sherrerd Sherrerd is offline
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Originally Posted by RickJay View Post
... If Mitch McConnell and Paul Ryan walk into his office, sit down, and tell him straight up the math says his Presidency is doomed, he will say they are Weak and Sad, and that he can make a deal, the best deal.
It's also quite possible that Trump would find the prospect of impeachment proceedings to be attractive. This is a man who, shall we say, likes to be the center of attention.

The bottom line is money--specifically, the humiliation of being seen not to have an impressive amount of it. If, hypothetically, the GOP does decide they'll lose the House in 2018 unless they artfully pry out Trump, then they could deploy the most powerful leverage they have against him: the potential revelation of the extent to which his failing businesses have been bailed out (mostly by surrogates for Putin).

If they say "we will make public all these incontrovertible facts that show how badly you've run your businesses and how little net worth you actually have---OR you can resign for "health reasons" and keep all you've amassed since Election Day---your call"........Trump might cave.

IF he can paint it as "winning," of course. We'll all have to tolerate years of him bragging about how much he made during the months after November 8, but at least the threat of massive global upheaval will have been averted.

But the threat of Being Impeached, in and of itself, might not be any threat at all when it comes to Trump. He'd be ubiquitous, world-wide, on every media platform there is--and loving it.
  #19  
Old 05-17-2017, 04:43 PM
Johnny L.A. Johnny L.A. is online now
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Originally Posted by Sherrerd View Post
But the threat of Being Impeached, in and of itself, might not be any threat at all when it comes to Trump. He'd be ubiquitous, world-wide, on every media platform there is--and loving it.
And loving it.
  #20  
Old 05-17-2017, 04:46 PM
Velocity Velocity is offline
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Predicting that Trump would be elected, and impeached, is not that far-fetched a prediction.


Prior to Election Day, how many Americans predicted Trump would win? Probably about 20%.

Given the type of person he is, how many people would have predicted that, if elected, Trump would get impeached? Probably 30% or more of Americans. There is some overlap between that 20% mentioned above and the 30% here.

So maybe 5% of Americans would have predicted, "Trump wins, then gets impeached." Not that far-fetched at all. This professor is 1 out of 20.
  #21  
Old 05-17-2017, 05:55 PM
Jonathan Chance Jonathan Chance is offline
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The Moderator Clears His Throat

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Originally Posted by DrDeth View Post
Bricker would point out the impeaching Trump would not get Pence in.
DrDeth, two things.

1. Bringing Bricker into this is not best practices. This is a mod note to not do anything similar in the future.

2. We are NOT going to see you go around and around again about the definition of impeachment. Doing so in the future - in any thread not specifically about the definition of the word - may earn you warnings. Stop it.
  #22  
Old 05-17-2017, 07:48 PM
Wesley Clark Wesley Clark is online now
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Trump will not be removed from Office. I am willing to bet on this.
Trump critics like myself have been wrong from the start about Trump, so I'm not willing to take that bet. Trump could serve a full 4 years, but I seriously doubt he does an additional 4 beyond that. He has been so rocked with scandal, the US economy is overdue for a recession, the health bill takes health insurance away from 24 million to fund tax cuts for the rich, he has worse approval rating within 3 months than many presidents get at any point in 8 years, etc. Trump barely won in 2016, I don't see him building a coalition to win in 2020. But again, I've been wrong from the start. Maybe white resentment combined with voter suppression push him over the edge in 2020, who knows.

I think a big part of why the GOP doesn't impeach is because Trump has 80-90% support from the GOP base. If the GOP turns on him, then those senators and representatives may face a primary in their home district, or maybe in the general election there is a fear that the GOP base won't vote for them and will stay home or vote third party, giving the general election to the democrat.

The only way I see the GOP congress impeaching Trump is if the GOP voters start saying they will punish GOP congressmen for refusing to impeach. I don't see that happening.

Last edited by Wesley Clark; 05-17-2017 at 07:49 PM.
  #23  
Old 05-17-2017, 09:39 PM
samclem samclem is offline
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Trump will not be removed from Office. I am willing to bet on this.
He's got about 119 days under his belt out of 1460 days or so. That's about an 8% number of days and many, many y-u-u-u-g-e problems. Even when the Mafia owned Las Vegas slots(the poorest payoff in a casino) in the 1940s, you had a better chance. Would you really take a bet on that?
  #24  
Old 05-17-2017, 10:23 PM
BigT BigT is online now
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The odds that he is impeached aren't as high as I would like, but that is ridiculous. The fact that he's messed up so bad so early is exactly why the odds are higher than that. Because the more he messes up, the more it becomes a better solution for Republicans to get rid of him and do damage control.

And that's all this boils down to--whether Republicans think it's better for them with or without him. It clearly is not about what's best for the country, as, even if you had doubts before, Trump has shown he's awful for the country.
  #25  
Old 05-17-2017, 11:58 PM
Velocity Velocity is offline
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Originally Posted by RickJay View Post
When his own party viziers came into his office and said "Pack your things or we'll do it for you" he knew the jig was up. He knew Barry Goldwater was not shitting him. Trump doesn't have that. If Mitch McConnell and Paul Ryan walk into his office, sit down, and tell him straight up the math says his Presidency is doomed, he will say they are Weak and Sad, and that he can make a deal, the best deal.
This.

Nixon trusted Goldwater, etc. Trump probably doesn't trust McConnell/Ryan.
  #26  
Old 05-18-2017, 12:58 AM
Anny Middon Anny Middon is offline
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Trump will not be removed from Office. I am willing to bet on this.
Not even if he's removed feet first?

I'm serious about this. He's 70 years old, overweight, has poor eating habits and gets little exercise. I think he's finding being POTUS to be much more stressful that he ever thought. I know he gets some of the best healthcare possible, but I still think a heart attack or stroke is possible.
  #27  
Old 05-18-2017, 07:30 AM
astorian astorian is online now
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I'd love to see Trump gone, but alas, he's not going anywhere.

There's no way a GOP controlled House will impeach him, and the Democrats won't take over the House in 2018.

And fantasies aside, no one is going to invoke the 25th amendment.

Trump is a creep who should never have been nominated or elected. But he was, and we're stuck with him at LEAST until January 20, 2021.
  #28  
Old 05-18-2017, 09:23 AM
RickJay RickJay is offline
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Originally Posted by Velocity View Post
This.

Nixon trusted Goldwater, etc. Trump probably doesn't trust McConnell/Ryan.
I don't think it's a matter of "trust," exactly. It's a matter or whether or not you can accept reality. The GOP Congressional leadership came to Nixon and said "Resign or we will impeach you" so Nixon said "okay" because like 44 out of 45 people who've been President, Nixon was going by the presumption that reality was based on facts constructed from evidence he could perceive. Trump's reality is what we wants it to be, and he gets angry when people challenge that.
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