Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 09-23-2017, 08:57 AM
Mahaloth Mahaloth is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2000
Location: 地球
Posts: 27,066
Price Is Right Wheel - What are the odds of this?

Watch the video first if you like fun happenings.

So:

The first guy spun a $1.

The lady spun a $1

The final guy also got a $1.

Then, the first guy got $1 again!

Then, the lady got $1 again.

The end.

What are the odds for this kind of luck on the wheel? I swear, that last guy almost had $1 on his final spin!
Advertisements  
  #2  
Old 09-23-2017, 10:16 AM
terentii terentii is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: Moscow/Toronto
Posts: 14,206
How many spaces on the wheel and how many of them are $1?

(Sorry, I just can't watch that clip all the way through. )
__________________
I may be a dirty old man, but I'm a GREAT dirty old man!

Last edited by terentii; 09-23-2017 at 10:19 AM.
  #3  
Old 09-23-2017, 10:18 AM
Leaffan Leaffan is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Ottawa
Posts: 22,343
I don't know about the odds, but that was fun to watch!
  #4  
Old 09-23-2017, 10:27 AM
Chronos Chronos is online now
Charter Member
Moderator
 
Join Date: Jan 2000
Location: The Land of Cleves
Posts: 72,187
Whenever you ask "What are the odds of this?", you have to specify exactly what "this" is. Getting five $1s on those particular five spins? I think the wheel has 20 spaces on it, so that'd be 1/20^5, or 1 in 3.2 million. But when you ask "What are the odds that five spins in a row would all come up $1, at any time in the show's history?", then the odds aren't nearly so long, perhaps somewhere in the vicinity of one in several hundred (I'm not exactly sure how long the show has run, or how many spins they make per day). And if you extend "this" even further, to include similarly-remarkable events on other game shows, it becomes much more likely yet.
  #5  
Old 09-23-2017, 10:27 AM
USCDiver USCDiver is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2000
Location: NC
Posts: 4,771
Quote:
Originally Posted by terentii View Post
How many spaces on the wheel and how many of them are $1?

(Sorry, I just can't watch that clip all the way through. )
There are 20 slots (one each for values of $.05-$1 in $.05 increments). Only one $1 space. But it isn’t truly random, since the player spins the wheel as hard or soft as they want (provided the wheel makes at least one full turn) and combinations of two numbers which add to $1 count too.
  #6  
Old 09-23-2017, 10:58 AM
Mahaloth Mahaloth is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2000
Location: 地球
Posts: 27,066
Quote:
Originally Posted by terentii View Post
(Sorry, I just can't watch that clip all the way through. )
Why? I haven't seen that show in years and it was pretty neat. Drew Carey was hilarious at the end. He couldn't believe it.
  #7  
Old 09-23-2017, 11:03 AM
pkbites pkbites is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2000
Location: Majikal Land O' Cheeze!
Posts: 9,896
That was fun to watch!


I love TPIR but don't get to watch it often because of my schedule.

Was that a recent episode? If so, did Drew gain some of his weight back or was his suit jacket just wearing on him oddly?
__________________
I got tired of coming up with last-minute desperate solutions to impossible problems created by other fucking people!

William Stranix
  #8  
Old 09-23-2017, 11:48 AM
Cayuga Cayuga is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: Connecticut, USA
Posts: 997
I think it happened this past week, the first week of the new season. And yes, Drew looked a little more … padded.

There are 20 slots marked $.05 – $1.
$1 wins automatically.
2 spins totaling $1 also win.

So in one spin, a player has a 5% chance of winning.
Assuming he doesn't get $1, he has a 5% chance of winning on his second spin.

A-a-a-a-and that's as far as I can go. I know the total odds of one person winning once isn't 0.5 x 0.5 = 0.25 = 2.5% (because if you win the first time, you don't spin the second time (I think that matters, right?)), but I don't know what it is.

Do we need to look at two spins as one event with 20 x 20 = 400 possible outcomes? Or 380, since you don't spin twice if you get $1 the first time. There are 11 favorable outcomes ($1, $.05/$.95, $.10/$.90 … $.45/$.55, $.50/$.50). So the odds are 11/380, which is roughly a 2.9% chance of winning. As for that happening five times in a row, I don't know.

I realize I could be way off base on this — high school math was a long time ago. I'd really be interested in having someone explain.

(And to keep Chronos happy, let's say "on those five attempts," not "at any point in the run of the show.")

(Is "on any given five consecutive attempts" the same as "on those five attempts"?)
  #9  
Old 09-23-2017, 12:04 PM
Kamino Neko Kamino Neko is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Apr 1999
Location: Alternate 230
Posts: 14,414
The five $1.00 spins aren't the most amazing thing - it's that it happened in an episode where the prize for hitting the dollar was higher than usual.
  #10  
Old 09-23-2017, 12:31 PM
Mahaloth Mahaloth is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2000
Location: 地球
Posts: 27,066
Quote:
Originally Posted by pkbites View Post
Was that a recent episode? If so, did Drew gain some of his weight back or was his suit jacket just wearing on him oddly?
It's recent and it looks like it was the first of the season. Yes, he has gained weight. It's understandable. It's hard to keep it off, I'm sure.
  #11  
Old 09-23-2017, 01:06 PM
Gatopescado Gatopescado is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: on your last raw nerve
Posts: 17,235
I think that was this Friday show (9/22). I watch this crap every day.

They gave away a shit-ton of cash! I recall at least 2 cars and a boat.

Every person won their pricing game. I think it was $30k on the wheel bonus cash. It was as Drew called it, "A perfect game".

Last edited by Gatopescado; 09-23-2017 at 01:10 PM.
  #12  
Old 09-23-2017, 05:04 PM
Guest-starring: Id! Guest-starring: Id! is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Mar 2016
Posts: 2,069
I thought the odds of dippy dingbat Ryan's overall success at this show was quite impressive.

And yeah Plinko might not quite measure up to the Big Wheel.....

Last edited by Guest-starring: Id!; 09-23-2017 at 05:07 PM.
  #13  
Old 09-23-2017, 06:07 PM
Chronos Chronos is online now
Charter Member
Moderator
 
Join Date: Jan 2000
Location: The Land of Cleves
Posts: 72,187
You do know that they select contestants based on how excited and energetic they seem, right? So it's not really a surprise to see a guy going crazy on stage like that.
  #14  
Old 09-23-2017, 06:39 PM
Guest-starring: Id! Guest-starring: Id! is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Mar 2016
Posts: 2,069
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chronos View Post
You do know that they select contestants based on how excited and energetic they seem, right? So it's not really a surprise to see a guy going crazy on stage like that.

I wasn't aware of this.

If contestants normally get this unglued, I might start watching it.
  #15  
Old 09-23-2017, 10:20 PM
Chronos Chronos is online now
Charter Member
Moderator
 
Join Date: Jan 2000
Location: The Land of Cleves
Posts: 72,187
Well, that guy was more unglued than usual. But yeah, they're all pretty excited.
  #16  
Old 09-24-2017, 01:29 AM
pkbites pkbites is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2000
Location: Majikal Land O' Cheeze!
Posts: 9,896
Quote:
Originally Posted by Eddie The Horrible View Post
I thought the odds of dippy dingbat Ryan's overall success at this show was quite impressive.
Holy dog snot! That was freaking awesome!

BTW, I have that cordless flosser. It works great! And I paid $37.99 so TPIR was pretty much on the money to how much it was.
__________________
I got tired of coming up with last-minute desperate solutions to impossible problems created by other fucking people!

William Stranix
  #17  
Old 09-24-2017, 07:25 AM
Monocracy Monocracy is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Dec 2000
Posts: 506
The odds that all three contestants roll a dollar on their first spin(s) is 1 in 1079. This assumes that the first contestant will spin the wheel twice if (s)he doesn't hit a dollar on the first spin, which isn't realistic, because (s)he would stop if they spun a pretty high number.

Chance of NOT rolling a dollar on first spin: .95
Chance of NOT rolling a dollar on second spin: .95
Chance of NOT rolling a dollar on either spin: .95 x .95 = .9025
Chance of contestant rolling a dollar: 1 - .9025 = .0975

Chance of all three contestants rolling a dollar: .0975^3 = .000927
.000927 is 1 in 1079


Chance of NOT rolling a dollar on bonus spin: .95
Chance of all 3 contestants NOT rollling a dollar on their bonus spin: .95^3 = .857
Chance of at least one contestant rolling a dollar on bonus spin: 1 - .857 = .143

Chance of all three contestants rolling a dollar AND at least one contestant rolling a dollar on bonus spin: .000927 x .143 = .000132
.000132 is 1 in 7565


Chance of rolling a dollar on bonus spin: .05
Chance of all three contestants rolling a dollar on bonus spin: .05^3 = .000125

Chance of all three contestants rolling a dollar AND rolling a dollar on bonus spin: .000927 x .000125 = .000000116
.000000116 is 1 in 8.6 million


I don't know how to calculate 2 contestants rolling dollars on their bonus spins, but it's somewhere between 1 in 7265 and 1 in 8.6 million.

Note: Numbers have been rounded in text, but not in calculations.

Also remember, this event actually happened so the real odds of it happening are 100%. There are millions of "What are the odds?" events that can happen on a game like The Price Is Right, so if the game gets played as many times as it has, some unlikely events will occur. The real challenge is predicting a long odds event BEFORE it happens.

Last edited by Monocracy; 09-24-2017 at 07:25 AM.
  #18  
Old 09-24-2017, 08:50 AM
pulykamell pulykamell is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: May 2000
Location: SW Side, Chicago
Posts: 41,271
Quote:
Originally Posted by Monocracy View Post
Also remember, this event actually happened so the real odds of it happening are 100%.
I'm not sure I would use the word "odds" in that case. To me, the word only really make sense referring to the probability prior to an observation.

Quote:
There are millions of "What are the odds?" events that can happen on a game like The Price Is Right, so if the game gets played as many times as it has, some unlikely events will occur.
Now that could be the next layer of the question. Given how many wheel spins there have bin in the show's history, what was the probability that 5 dollar-totaling spins in a row would have occurred at some point during the show's run.

Last edited by pulykamell; 09-24-2017 at 08:52 AM.
  #19  
Old 09-24-2017, 09:00 AM
pulykamell pulykamell is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: May 2000
Location: SW Side, Chicago
Posts: 41,271
Quote:
Originally Posted by Monocracy View Post
I don't know how to calculate 2 contestants rolling dollars on their bonus spins, but it's somewhere between 1 in 7265 and 1 in 8.6 million.
Well, if you're counting "in a row" as part of it, I'm getting a number of 1 in 430-450K (using your intial numbers), depending on whether you want to throw out the case where the last guy also gets a dollar on his spin.
  #20  
Old 09-24-2017, 09:27 AM
Kamino Neko Kamino Neko is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Apr 1999
Location: Alternate 230
Posts: 14,414
Quote:
Originally Posted by pulykamell View Post
Now that could be the next layer of the question. Given how many wheel spins there have bin in the show's history, what was the probability that 5 dollar-totaling spins in a row would have occurred at some point during the show's run.
There have been ~10,000 episodes, with 2 Big Wheel segments each, since the current format began in 1972.

So, that's around 20k chances for all three initial spins to hit the dollar. This has happened a dozen or so times. Which fits with my quick back of the envelope calculation as to how often that would happen.

Since 5-dollar-space rounds are necessarily a relatively rare subset of the 3-dollar-space starters, and we're excluding ones where the first or second contestant is the one who misses the second dollar, we're a rather long way from the point where the number of trials multiplied by the probability of it happening approaches 1.

Last edited by Kamino Neko; 09-24-2017 at 09:29 AM. Reason: Gramma, what bad grammar you have.
  #21  
Old 09-24-2017, 01:21 PM
Cayuga Cayuga is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: Connecticut, USA
Posts: 997
Quote:
Originally Posted by Monocracy View Post
Also remember, this event actually happened so the real odds of it happening are 100%.
That's not how it works.

Yes, the odds that it happened are 100%, but that's a pointless statement. The odds that it would happen are unaffected by whether it did or not.

The odds of a die coming up 2 are 1 in 6. I just rolled a die here on my kitchen table, and it came up 2. Even so, the odds of a die coming up 2 are still 1 in 6.
Reply

Bookmarks

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is Off
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 06:36 AM.

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.7
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.

Send questions for Cecil Adams to: cecil@chicagoreader.com

Send comments about this website to: webmaster@straightdope.com

Terms of Use / Privacy Policy

Advertise on the Straight Dope!
(Your direct line to thousands of the smartest, hippest people on the planet, plus a few total dipsticks.)

Publishers - interested in subscribing to the Straight Dope?
Write to: sdsubscriptions@chicagoreader.com.

Copyright © 2017 Sun-Times Media, LLC.

 
Copyright © 2017