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Old 12-06-2017, 08:14 PM
Projammer Projammer is offline
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Yellowstone supervolcano eruption. How to capitalize and profit?

In a dream one night you see the New York Times headline, "Yellowstone Erupts! Thousands Missing, Presumed Dead." and the date five years in the future. When you wake up you "know" that it's true and going to happen.

Being the Great American Entrepreneur that you are, you immediately start brainstorming how to capitalize on your inside track.

Sure, you can tell everyone what you've seen, but your only evidence is "I had a dream." so good luck with that. If you've got friends or family in the area you can probably convince them to take a vacation with you, or in the worst case, abduct them the day before and apologize the day after.

So what are our options to cash in?
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  #2  
Old 12-06-2017, 08:23 PM
The Stainless Steel Rat The Stainless Steel Rat is offline
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If you're talking full-bore, 100% power, once-every-300,000-years eruption, the only way to cash in is to move yourself, your assets, and and as much family as you can convince to the Southern Hemisphere, because the N. Hemisphere is going to be, and I say this as politely as possible, fucked.

IMHO as always. YMMV.
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Old 12-06-2017, 09:21 PM
Gatopescado Gatopescado is offline
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Adopt 4 or 5 kids, buy massive amounts of life insurance, then send them camping at the appointed time.

Break out the black suit.
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Old 12-06-2017, 09:28 PM
jtur88 jtur88 is offline
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I'd profit by waiting for FaceBook news to get hold of the idea, and then sell it short.
  #5  
Old 12-06-2017, 10:44 PM
Heracles Heracles is offline
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Keep in mind that there are a few things to capitalise on here:
- The fact that dreams can actually foretell the future.
- The fact that the NYT will still be in business in 5 years.
- The fact that Yellowstone will erupt but the NYT will still be able to publish the following day (was the title written on newsprint?)
- The fact that the title mentions only "thousands".
- The fact that there will have been no nuclear apocalypse in the next 5 years.


So:
- Try dreaming about the stock market for about 4 years. Lotteries are good too. If you can't dream on demand, you have about 3 years to learn.
- Invest in the New York Times.
- Invest in gold. People will be buying gold in 5 years. Maybe Bitcoin, too, but that's a bit fickle.
- Short companies that are heavily invested in solar power in the continental U.S.
- Short banks that sell mortgages close to Yellowstone.
- Invest in companies that make breathing masks.
- Stockpile canned foods that you can resell: crops will be very poor for several years. Prepare to guard the doors.
- Build some large housing units with steeply angled, heavily reinforced, Teflon-covered roofs with large stockpiles of food and water. (Or build underground, of course.) In 4 years, start saturating the media about your chain of end-times shelters that only accept cash (or gold, or Bitcoin). "Projammer's Ark" or something similar. If you build underground, you can call them nuclear fallout shelters, it sounds less silly than "end-times". Prepare to guard the doors.
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Old 12-06-2017, 10:49 PM
snfaulkner snfaulkner is offline
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Does vegas take bets for this sort of thing?
  #7  
Old 12-07-2017, 02:43 AM
guestchaz guestchaz is online now
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Only thousands missing, presumed dead? Me thinks the fact that you have this advanced knowledge of the future had led to a butterfly effect somehow, something you did or said, that lead to a mass exodus of people from the US, and large parts of Mexico and Canada. Brazil is now one of the dominate global superpowers. Did you get in on the real estate market in Rio before the Mass Migration of 2027?

Feliz Navidad e'er body!
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Last edited by guestchaz; 12-07-2017 at 02:45 AM.
  #8  
Old 12-07-2017, 04:32 AM
blue infinity blue infinity is online now
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Spend the next five years telling everyone Yellowstone's gonna go boom in December 2022. Start a website, Youtube channel, whatever. Try to get on TV; create as much media presence as you can.

Now this is the important bit: Tell everyone this was revealed to in a vision from the great god Vulcan.

The day after Yellowstone goes boom, you are the head priest of major world religion. Ka-ching!
  #9  
Old 12-07-2017, 08:32 AM
upend upend is offline
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YELLOWSTONE SUPERVOLCANO ERUPTION

there, it's capitalized. Not sure how you'd make a profit out of that though.
  #10  
Old 12-07-2017, 09:27 AM
Jonathan Chance Jonathan Chance is offline
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Options. Short everything in the three-six month period before the eruption. Then get the hell out of dodge and wait. If the financial system survives in some form you'll be rich AND in Tierra del Fuego.
  #11  
Old 12-07-2017, 10:48 AM
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I think this is dicey but nevertheless possible.

About a year before the event start purchasing as much land as you can (and I'm talking hundreds of thousands of acres) around the park. All purchases to be at no principal payments for the first year and low initial interest with a huge interest increase after one year and a balloon payment in ten.

After the eruption everyone you bought it from is probably dead and you now have title without the sellers being around to quibble about payment. Of course, it will take a hundred years for the land to recover so you'll be dead too. But your heirs will own huge ranches next to Yellowstone.

Always think long term.
  #12  
Old 12-07-2017, 11:14 AM
Sunny Daze Sunny Daze is offline
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Start stockpiling large amounts of food now. Store in strategically placed bunkers. Recruit army of goons to help you guard and manage your stores. Recruit key scientists to help humanity survive. Build bunkers for your chosen few. Watch disaster flicks for additional ideas.
  #13  
Old 12-07-2017, 11:19 AM
TriPolar TriPolar is offline
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Kind of hard to cash in on this. Any insurance gimmick would have to go through a company somewhere else in the world, maybe South Africa. But even there the resulting economic disaster could affect the entire world.

I think the religious cult idea is the best. The world will be a much different place after this cataclysmic event, money may not be worth much, power is what you'll need in this hypothetical future.
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Old 12-07-2017, 11:21 AM
Wesley Clark Wesley Clark is offline
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Is there something you aren't telling us?

The problem is if Yellowstone erupts, the entire global economy could collapse.

If it were a small, local explosion just take out huge life insurance policies on people you know would die.

But a Yellowstone explosion would bankrupt the entire world economy probably.
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  #15  
Old 12-07-2017, 11:24 AM
madsircool madsircool is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by guestchaz View Post
Only thousands missing, presumed dead? Me thinks the fact that you have this advanced knowledge of the future had led to a butterfly effect somehow, something you did or said, that lead to a mass exodus of people from the US, and large parts of Mexico and Canada. Brazil is now one of the dominate global superpowers. Did you get in on the real estate market in Rio before the Mass Migration of 2027?

Feliz Navidad e'er body!
This is incorrect, imo. The southern hemisphere will be just as devastated as the north because the sun will be blocked and agriculture will be mostly impossible around the world.
  #16  
Old 12-07-2017, 12:16 PM
silenus silenus is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by guestchaz View Post
Only thousands missing, presumed dead? Me thinks the fact that you have this advanced knowledge of the future had led to a butterfly effect somehow, something you did or said, that lead to a mass exodus of people from the US, and large parts of Mexico and Canada.
Why would the missing total be more? Take a look at a map. You have to go a couple of hundred miles downwind before you hit a city of any size (Boise). Wipe out everybody within 100 miles of Yellowstone and the total will still read "thousands."
  #17  
Old 12-07-2017, 12:51 PM
Stranger On A Train Stranger On A Train is online now
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Originally Posted by madsircool View Post
This is incorrect, imo. The southern hemisphere will be just as devastated as the north because the sun will be blocked and agriculture will be mostly impossible around the world.
That is not really true. There is relatively little atmospheric circulation transfer between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, especially within the troposphere. The Yellowstone Caldera is at approimately 44.4° N, which puts it squarely in the northern Ferrel cell. From the three previously known eruptions around the Yellowstone hotspot, which formed. The Huckleberry Ridge Tuff, the Henrys Forks Caldera, and Yellowstone Caldera produced ash that was distributed as far as the Eastern Seaboard that likely devastaed great swaths of Central and Eastern North America but did not result in the kind of global destruction and mass extinction that would result from blocking sunlight around the world. The volcano would eject a large mass of gases into the stratosphere including CO2, SO2, HCl, HF, which would result in a variety of impacts to the biosphere, potentially including degradation of the ozone layer, produing sulpuric and nitric acid condensates, chlorine nitrate, nitrogen pentoxide, which would result in a short-to-medium term globalcooling effect and potential long term warming.

If a massive volcanic eruption at Yellowstone occurred today, we would expect significant disruption in agriculture in the American Midwest which would likely have global consequences, and significant impacts on industry in the East as the caustic and erosive as several centimeters thick would be distributed across the continent. However, while geophysicists have observed signs of building pressure under the existing caldera and we are ostensibly due for another eruption (which have occurred on roughly 650 kyr intervals, the last occurred ~640 kyr ago), there is no sign of imminent eruption, and the estimated odds of an eruption occuring within the remaining century are cummulatively about 0.01% based upon prior activity. If such an eruption were to occur, however, there is essentially nothing that could be done to stop it, and the only mitigation would be mass evacuation and stockpiling food and other vital resources until such time that the land could be reclaimed for habitation and agriculture.

Stranger
  #18  
Old 12-07-2017, 01:26 PM
Projammer Projammer is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatopescado View Post
Adopt 4 or 5 kids, buy massive amounts of life insurance, then send them camping at the appointed time.
Evil options. I hadn't really considered them, but that could work.
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Originally Posted by snfaulkner View Post
Does vegas take bets for this sort of thing?
Vegas takes bets on anything. I'd probably get great odds for a specific date.
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Originally Posted by upend View Post
YELLOWSTONE SUPERVOLCANO ERUPTION

there, it's capitalized. Not sure how you'd make a profit out of that though.
Everyone likes a little ass. No one likes a smart ass.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jonathan Chance View Post
Options. Short everything in the three-six month period before the eruption. Then get the hell out of dodge and wait. If the financial system survives in some form you'll be rich AND in Tierra del Fuego.
The problem with shorting is that you have to have a 25% maintenance margin so this becomes a situation where you have to start with a lot of money to make a lot of money. The best you can do is quadruple whatever you start with.

Likewise, you can't take out insurance policies on someone you have no relationship to.

The NYT was chosen because it's a major publication furthest from the event and most likely to publish the next day.

You don't really have any indication of the size of the eruption other than the "Thousands Missing" subheadline. If it's on the ash-ice-age scale then profit becomes more moot so hopefully it won't be the big one and life will go on.

I'm pretty sure that there will be a financial market if there is any civilization left, after all, the IRS has a plan to be back in operation 30 days after a nuclear war..

ETA: Stranger posted while I was composing this.. Interesting analysis, we should talk more later.
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Last edited by Projammer; 12-07-2017 at 01:30 PM.
  #19  
Old 12-07-2017, 01:33 PM
Stranger On A Train Stranger On A Train is online now
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Be aware that most general property and many life insurance policies have some kind of force majeure clause that limits liability in the case of so-called “Acts of God” (unforeseeable natural disasters). A mass casualty event that killed millions of people at once would likely overwhelm the insurance industry and result in bankruptcy for affected companies regardless.

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  #20  
Old 12-07-2017, 02:28 PM
madsircool madsircool is offline
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Originally Posted by Stranger On A Train View Post
That is not really true. There is relatively little atmospheric circulation transfer between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, especially within the troposphere. The Yellowstone Caldera is at approimately 44.4° N, which puts it squarely in the northern Ferrel cell. From the three previously known eruptions around the Yellowstone hotspot, which formed. The Huckleberry Ridge Tuff, the Henrys Forks Caldera, and Yellowstone Caldera produced ash that was distributed as far as the Eastern Seaboard that likely devastaed great swaths of Central and Eastern North America but did not result in the kind of global destruction and mass extinction that would result from blocking sunlight around the world. The volcano would eject a large mass of gases into the stratosphere including CO2, SO2, HCl, HF, which would result in a variety of impacts to the biosphere, potentially including degradation of the ozone layer, produing sulpuric and nitric acid condensates, chlorine nitrate, nitrogen pentoxide, which would result in a short-to-medium term globalcooling effect and potential long term warming.

If a massive volcanic eruption at Yellowstone occurred today, we would expect significant disruption in agriculture in the American Midwest which would likely have global consequences, and significant impacts on industry in the East as the caustic and erosive as several centimeters thick would be distributed across the continent. However, while geophysicists have observed signs of building pressure under the existing caldera and we are ostensibly due for another eruption (which have occurred on roughly 650 kyr intervals, the last occurred ~640 kyr ago), there is no sign of imminent eruption, and the estimated odds of an eruption occuring within the remaining century are cummulatively about 0.01% based upon prior activity. If such an eruption were to occur, however, there is essentially nothing that could be done to stop it, and the only mitigation would be mass evacuation and stockpiling food and other vital resources until such time that the land could be reclaimed for habitation and agriculture.

Stranger
The Toba eruption spewed gas and ash across both hemispheres. Of course it was one of the largest eruptions known to man.

http://www.bbc.com/future/story/2017...on-wipe-us-out
  #21  
Old 12-07-2017, 03:17 PM
Doctor Jackson Doctor Jackson is offline
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Did you get in on the real estate market in Rio before the Mass Migration of 2027?

Feliz Navidad e'er body!
In Brazil it's "feliz Natal". Portuguese, don'tchaknow.
  #22  
Old 12-07-2017, 04:18 PM
Stranger On A Train Stranger On A Train is online now
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Originally Posted by madsircool View Post
The Toba eruption spewed gas and ash across both hemispheres. Of course it was one of the largest eruptions known to man.

http://www.bbc.com/future/story/2017...on-wipe-us-out
Please reread what I wrote. Yellowstone is at a middle latitude basically centered in the northern Ferrel cell. The Toba caldera is very near the equator and basically in between northern and southern Hadley cells, so yes, it would distribute solid ash material into the lower latitudes of each equator, with material found as far east as Malawi. (The atmosphere flows east in the Hadley cell and west in the Farrel cell because of differences in Coriolis acceleration and momentum transfer between lower and higher latitudes, the same effect that produces the Trade Winds and Westerlies.) Solid ejecta from Toba largely stayed within the near equatorial tropic region. The emitted gas, of course, rises into the stratosphere and has basically a global cooling effect, but while this will reduce ambient sunlight it would not render agriculture “mostly impossible around the world”; it will just reduce growing seasons and light intensity. Violent eruption of the Yellowstone Caldera in the fashion experienced ~640 kyr ago would devastate the North American continent to the east but would not have immediate or catastrophic effects on the Southern Hemisphere, or even deposit a significant amount of solid material on the Eurasian landmass.

Stranger
  #23  
Old 12-07-2017, 09:12 PM
guestchaz guestchaz is online now
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Why would the missing total be more? Take a look at a map. You have to go a couple of hundred miles downwind before you hit a city of any size (Boise). Wipe out everybody within 100 miles of Yellowstone and the total will still read "thousands."

check out this map

Denver metro area population; 2,814,330 most likely toast
Salt Lake metro area population; 1,153,340 almost definitely toast.
Boise metro area, the smallest population of the three; 676,909, a campfire marshmallow.

When anybody is finally able to get into that area again, if anybody is able to, it won't be in a timely manner. The area affected is so huge, the effects so devastating and truly global in scale, that the dark purple ring and all inside it would probably be written off as a totally devastated loss.
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Last edited by guestchaz; 12-07-2017 at 09:13 PM.
  #24  
Old 12-07-2017, 09:28 PM
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In Brazil it's "feliz Natal". Portuguese, don'tchaknow.
Too late for the edit window for splainin to the guestling about Yellowstone caldera, but, SIGH, I knew that
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Old 12-08-2017, 02:45 AM
48Willys 48Willys is offline
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I think that Guestchaz Is underestimating the devastation.

As far as casualties, Unless the NYT is so shell shocked as to make a major mistake, the headlines wold NOT read thousands missing. The number would require many more zeros. There would be thousands just from the tourists in the area. Not only from Yellowstone, but The Grand Tetons, All of the National parks & Wilderness areas will be destroyed along with the guests. A conservative estimate is at least tens of thousands dead in the desolate parts of Wyoming alone.

If it happens, I will not be posting on any internet site again. I live & work way to close to Yellowstone to even have a prayer of surviving. I did look into this once. All of the geologists I know have told me that I will not even know that it happened. It will be that quick & that big.

Just FYI, I was in the area when Mt St Helens blew. It was tiny compared to what Yellowstone will be.

If I knew it was going to blow on a certain date? I would move my loved ones to Australia, or New Zealand. Brazil is too close for comfort as far as I am concerned.

Profit? Being alive.
  #26  
Old 12-08-2017, 03:47 AM
guestchaz guestchaz is online now
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Originally Posted by 48Willys View Post
I think that Guestchaz Is underestimating the devastation.

As far as casualties, Unless the NYT is so shell shocked as to make a major mistake, the headlines wold NOT read thousands missing. The number would require many more zeros. There would be thousands just from the tourists in the area. Not only from Yellowstone, but The Grand Tetons, All of the National parks & Wilderness areas will be destroyed along with the guests. A conservative estimate is at least tens of thousands dead in the desolate parts of Wyoming alone.

If it happens, I will not be posting on any internet site again. I live & work way to close to Yellowstone to even have a prayer of surviving. I did look into this once. All of the geologists I know have told me that I will not even know that it happened. It will be that quick & that big.

Just FYI, I was in the area when Mt St Helens blew. It was tiny compared to what Yellowstone will be.

If I knew it was going to blow on a certain date? I would move my loved ones to Australia, or New Zealand. Brazil is too close for comfort as far as I am concerned.

Profit? Being alive.
I was trying to be a little bit realistically lazy. The number of large towns/small cities in the area of total destruction probably add up to several hundred thousand, I just didn't bother to look it all up to do the math(there's a LOT of them).

There's a lot more people in this "empty quarter" than people think. Living close (enough) as I do, the geology of Yellowstone and the Snake River canyon and area have always been a small interest of mine.
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  #27  
Old 12-08-2017, 09:11 AM
Heracles Heracles is offline
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Options. Short everything in the three-six month period before the eruption. Then get the hell out of dodge and wait. If the financial system survives in some form you'll be rich AND in Tierra del Fuego.
It would be ironic, at the very least, if the only part that survives a mega volcanic eruption in Tierra del Fuego.
  #28  
Old 12-08-2017, 03:15 PM
Projammer Projammer is offline
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While the ultimate death toll would obviously be much higher, the hypothetical headline is likely referring to the people in the immediate vicinity who received the Pompeii treatment. Pompeii is about 15.5 miles from Mt Vesuvius and is estimated to to have been covered by up to 17' of ash. That was also not all at once but is thought to have been at a rate of about 6"/hr.
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  #29  
Old 12-08-2017, 05:01 PM
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While the ultimate death toll would obviously be much higher, the hypothetical headline is likely referring to the people in the immediate vicinity who received the Pompeii treatment. Pompeii is about 15.5 miles from Mt Vesuvius and is estimated to to have been covered by up to 17' of ash. That was also not all at once but is thought to have been at a rate of about 6"/hr.
Well, looking at it that way, Salt Lake, in the map I linked to, is right at the border between instant kill zone and the primary ash zone, so yeah, might be some survivors from that area, but not very many.

Also, something that seems to be missing in this discussion, what about damage from the seismic effects of such an eruption?
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  #30  
Old 12-08-2017, 06:09 PM
Projammer Projammer is offline
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Seismic events will certainly be relevant to the people there and the region at large. But to be a concern here, we need some ideas about how to make bank on them.
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  #31  
Old 12-08-2017, 06:42 PM
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Originally Posted by Projammer View Post
In a dream one night you see the New York Times headline, "Yellowstone Erupts! Thousands Missing, Presumed Dead." and the date five years in the future. When you wake up you "know" that it's true and going to happen.

Being the Great American Entrepreneur that you are, you immediately start brainstorming how to capitalize on your inside track.

Sure, you can tell everyone what you've seen, but your only evidence is "I had a dream." so good luck with that. If you've got friends or family in the area you can probably convince them to take a vacation with you, or in the worst case, abduct them the day before and apologize the day after.

So what are our options to cash in?
Tell everyone you can and convince them. This is an event that will shatter not only the US but probably the world economy. Simply put, while it might not be an extinction level event it's probably going to be a civilization shattering one. There is no way to profit from this by holding the knowledge close and trying to profiteer or something like that.

If you can't convince anyone I suggest moving from the US and investing in food, water, shelter and power that can last years or a decade or so and hoping some sort of civilization hangs on despite the US suddenly being destroyed, the temperatures dropping world wide and sunlight being scarce, with billions starving.
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  #32  
Old 12-09-2017, 01:08 AM
guestchaz guestchaz is online now
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Seismic events will certainly be relevant to the people there and the region at large. But to be a concern here, we need some ideas about how to make bank on them.
the only thing I got earthquake insurance. Not sure how well that'll work out though. Maybe selling plans and absconding to Bolivia with all the money?
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