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  #1  
Old 04-23-2000, 08:10 PM
themightyquinn themightyquinn is offline
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Join Date: Apr 2000
Hi all!

Three of us couples are headed on a retreat next weekend. We are staying 2 nihgts and rented two cabins since the maximum number you can fit in 1 cabin is 4 people. One couple will get to spend Friday night alone in the second cabin, while another one of us couples gets to spend Saturday night alone, leaving one couple out of luck. We are going to draw straws to determine the 2 lucky couples. I told my girlfriend that we should just draw once, and the loser will be out of luck both nights, my logic being we have a 2 out of 3 chance of having one night to ourselves. But she insists on us drawing straws twice one for Friday night and one with the remaining two couples for Saturday night. Her reasoning is that we have a 1 in 3 chance the first night and a 1 in 2 chance for the second night. Which way should we go?
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  #2  
Old 04-23-2000, 08:27 PM
techchick68 techchick68 is offline
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This needs to be in MPSIMS...

No offense, since you are new you will not be subjected to toe nail pulling just yet
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  #3  
Old 04-23-2000, 08:27 PM
scr4 scr4 is offline
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Quote:
just draw once, and the loser will be out of luck both nights, my logic being we have a 2 out of 3 chance of having one night to ourselves
So you have 1/3 chance of being the unlucky couple.

Quote:
drawing straws twice one for Friday night and one with the remaining two couples for Saturday night
So you have 2/3 chance of being the unlucky couple for the first night. If that happens, then you have 1/2 chance of being the unlucky couple for the second night also. The chances of both happening are (2/3)*(1/2)=1/3. So it's the same.

Or you can think of it this way: whichever method you use, if each draw is fair, no couple has an advantage over others. And the results are the same - two lucky couples out of three, no more, no less. So the probability of being the lucky couple can't be different.

Good luck...
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  #4  
Old 04-23-2000, 08:36 PM
Mister Pink Mister Pink is offline
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The odds in both case are the same. Using your method, the odds of pulling a winning straw in the only draw are 2/3.

In your gf's method, your odds of pulling a winning straw on the first night are 1/3, and your odds of pulling a winning straw on the second night are 1/2 * 2/3 (2/3 being the likelyhood that you'll even participate in the second drawing). 1/3 + (1/2 * 2/3)= 2/3.

What you definitely want to avoid is having Monty Hall hold the straws.
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  #5  
Old 04-24-2000, 12:11 AM
themightyquinn themightyquinn is offline
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This needs to be in MPSIMS...
No offense, since you are new you will not be subjected to toe nail pulling just yet


MPSIMS??? ummm i am sorry but not know the lingo yet
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  #6  
Old 04-24-2000, 12:30 AM
SingleDad SingleDad is offline
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Just put all three couples in the same cabin and make a party of it!
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  #7  
Old 04-24-2000, 12:37 AM
2sense 2sense is offline
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I am sick of hearing stories of couples coupling! Think of the CHILDREN! What will this do to them?

I am calling my priest about you degenerates!


[/sarcasm]
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  #8  
Old 04-24-2000, 01:15 AM
Strider Strider is offline
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MPSIMS:
Mundane Pointless Stuff I Must Share. It is thread classification (for want of a better term). You posted this in General Questions, or GQ.

By the way, good luck

-N

------------------
"Strider...I must also confess that you're one of the nicest atheists I've met."
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  #9  
Old 04-24-2000, 02:18 AM
Otto Otto is offline
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[hijack]

Perhaps the moderators should be the ones who decide in what category a thread belongs. Since no one but a moderator has the power to move a thread, is it really terribly helpful for a non-moderator to post "this belongs in ______"? The OP posits a probability question. I scan the list of threads in GQ and lo and behold there are a lot of probability questions. Life's tough enough without worrying about stuff over which you have no control. Lighten up.

[/hijack]
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  #10  
Old 04-24-2000, 08:12 AM
Cartooniverse Cartooniverse is offline
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Yeah. What Otto said.

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If you want to kiss the sky, you'd better learn how to kneel.
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  #11  
Old 04-24-2000, 10:28 AM
sdimbert sdimbert is offline
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Ditto, Otto.

Ditto Otto

Dittootto

DiTtOoTto

heh.
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  #12  
Old 04-24-2000, 01:18 PM
Guy Propski Guy Propski is offline
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Join Date: May 1999
This is easy. The score is:
Girlfriend--1
themightyquinn--0

You lose!
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