Which candidate will the unemployed vote for? (not should)

[Linden Arden]

I keep hearing that jobs are the #1 issue. I can buy into that.

Are there polls that provide an answer to this question? Personally I expect the answer is something along the lines of 47/47 with 6% undecided.

[Procrustus]

If they're unemployed because they're under-educated, I think they'd go for Romney. it might vary by region. African-Americans, employed or not, seem to vote heavily Democratic most years.

[greenslime1951]

I think that being unemployed won't make a difference either way. So many people vote for Party X or Y...because they vote for Party X or Y. Social pressure/custom has a lot to do with it, as Latisha from the projects is probably not going to vote the same way as Ashley Feathercroft III from Chevy Chase no matter what.

There is a mild public perception, according to a few recent polls, that the Republicans in general are/would be a bit better at handling the economy, but that the Democrats will be more generous with benefits for the unemployed. So if you're unemployed and want a job, you might lean a bit Republican; if you're unemployed and want the checks to keep coming, you might lean Democrat. But your programming, as I've noted above, will trump any of these considerations. I can't see Latisha voting for Romney just because she thinks he might provide more jobs, nor can I see Ashley voting for Obama just because he might be more compassionate toward the unemployed.

[guizot]

Originally Posted by Procrustus

If they're unemployed because they're under-educated, I think they'd go for Romney. . .

If they're unemployed because they're laid-off public sector workers, they'll probably go for Obama, whether they're educated or not.

[Captain Amazing]

Originally Posted by Procrustus

If they're unemployed because they're under-educated, I think they'd go for Romney.

Controlling for other stuff, the more educated a person is, the more likely they are to vote Republican, until they get a bachelors degree. Then, as they get more educated, they're more likely to vote Democratic.

[Linden Arden]

Originally Posted by Captain Amazing

Controlling for other stuff, the more educated a person is, the more likely they are to vote Republican, until they get a bachelors degree. Then, as they get more educated, they're more likely to vote Democratic.

Obama won college grads by 1-2 points in 2008 then won by 17 among post-graduate degrees.

(source=NY Times/CBS exit poll)

[Farmer Jane]

Probably who they usually vote for. Sure, there will be a few true swing voters (and that's kind of a very tiny percentage of folks) but I think if unemployment is high in the Bible belt they'll vote for who they think is fit and blame the economy on Obama.

[Invisible Chimp]

Data point: I'm unemployed and plan on voting for Obama. Of course, in 2008 I was employed and voted for Obama.

[Captain Amazing]

Originally Posted by Linden Arden

Obama won college grads by 1-2 points in 2008 then won by 17 among post-graduate degrees.

(source=NY Times/CBS exit poll)

Yes, and he won people without a high school diploma by 18 points, and people with just a high school diploma by 6, which sort of supports what I was saying there.