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Old 09-08-2017, 11:54 AM
wolfman wolfman is offline
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2018 is looking more and more interesting.

http://www.cnn.com/2017/09/08/politi...yan/index.html

I hadn't heard about Charlie Dent and Dave Reichert retiring until I came across that article. But damn that is interesting that 2 more Repubs have said they're giving up because they just can't work with the idiots running the GOP. It seems like all the purity test/ partisan anger is getting to the point where everybody but the guy in the mirror is RINO. This is going to be a hell of a spectacle the next few years.
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  #2  
Old 09-08-2017, 12:42 PM
Euphonious Polemic Euphonious Polemic is offline
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I like how they said that they were in the "governing wing" of the GOP, and that they could not do their jobs anymore. Reading between the lines, they're basically saying that the GOP is unable to govern anymore, as they are filled with politicians who don't know how to do that - they only know obstructionism.
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Old 09-08-2017, 12:50 PM
squidfood squidfood is offline
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Yeah, I saw that. Insomuch as it strengthens the (D) chances, it's higher risk because an (R) result would be a less moderate (R), and not just less moderate but likely from the Trump wing. As (D) as I am in principle, I respect many moderate Republicans and hate the fact that the swings of the last 20 years have shoved out moderates on both sides. Well, hopefully the result will be the return of some moderate Dems in the swing districts, even if they don't take the House.
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Old 09-08-2017, 01:08 PM
nate nate is offline
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Serious question, what dems have been primaried by a less moderate?
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Old 09-08-2017, 01:15 PM
Dinsdale Dinsdale is offline
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Damn - don't want to get my hopes up, but that could be very interesting - especially if we saw an increasing trend.

As folk said, on one hand, it is better to have moderate Repubs than teabaggers. So we'll really need to see what happens to the extreme right candidates in solid red or competitive districts.

Makes you wonder that they see quitting as preferable to trying to stick it out and improve things from within. Must really stink to be a somewhat reasonable, well-intentioned Repub in Congress these days.
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  #6  
Old 09-08-2017, 01:20 PM
Procrustus Procrustus is offline
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Originally Posted by Dinsdale View Post
Damn - don't want to get my hopes up, but that could be very interesting - especially if we saw an increasing trend.

As folk said, on one hand, it is better to have moderate Repubs than teabaggers. So we'll really need to see what happens to the extreme right candidates in solid red or competitive districts.
In Reichert's WA district, a teabagger would have problems. I think the Dems might be able to take it, although Dino Rossi is rumored to be considering throwing his hat into the ring.
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Old 09-08-2017, 01:21 PM
Sinaptics Sinaptics is offline
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Serious question, what dems have been primaried by a less moderate?
Only one I can think of was Alan Grayson who lost to Patrick Murphy in the primaries.
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Old 09-08-2017, 02:36 PM
squidfood squidfood is offline
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Serious question, what dems have been primaried by a less moderate?
I was thinking of the Blue Dog dems that got swung out by republicans 2010 and later. It will be interesting to see if the the dem moderates get through primaries going forward though, that's the major struggle on their side right now.
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Old 09-08-2017, 04:35 PM
Wesley Clark Wesley Clark is offline
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Serious question, what dems have been primaried by a less moderate?
Not quite what you're asking, but Hillary won the primary against Sanders 17 million to 13 million.
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Old 09-08-2017, 05:25 PM
gatorslap gatorslap is offline
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Serious question, what dems have been primaried by a less moderate?
Arlen Specter and Joe Lieberman? Didn't end well in either case, though.
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Old 09-08-2017, 09:07 PM
Do Not Taunt Do Not Taunt is offline
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Not quite what you're asking, but Hillary won the primary against Sanders 17 million to 13 million.
Generally, 'being primaried' implies you already hold the office, are seeking re-election, and lose in the primary. See Eric Cantor. It can also be used just in reference to the primary challenge, but still in the context where you already hold the office.
  #12  
Old 09-11-2017, 09:18 PM
wolfman wolfman is offline
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Bum..Bum..Bum, another one bites the dust.

http://www.detroitnews.com/story/new...ess/105497044/
  #13  
Old 09-11-2017, 10:00 PM
Lance Turbo Lance Turbo is offline
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Bob Corker is thinking about retiring...

"As far as what am I going to do in the future, I'm still contemplating the future. It's a tremendous privilege to do what I do, and to weigh in on the big issues. ... But I have not decided what I'm going to do in the future."
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Old 09-11-2017, 11:08 PM
gatorslap gatorslap is offline
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I doubt the Democrats have much chance in Tennessee even if Corker retires. Their chances there would be slightly higher than a state like Idaho or something, but still, Tennessee is awfully red these days.
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Old 09-11-2017, 11:48 PM
HurricaneDitka HurricaneDitka is offline
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I doubt the Democrats have much chance in Tennessee even if Corker retires. Their chances there would be slightly higher than a state like Idaho or something, but still, Tennessee is awfully red these days.
Al Gore's greatest legacy, as far as I'm concerned, was to turn TN solidly R. He was, I believe, the last Democrat to win a Senate election in Tennessee. It has also not voted for a Democrat for President since he lost the 2000 race. Mr. Gore, I salute you (with all the vigor that John Kerry ever managed to muster).

Last edited by HurricaneDitka; 09-11-2017 at 11:50 PM.
  #16  
Old 09-12-2017, 12:16 AM
Evil Economist Evil Economist is offline
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Al Gore's greatest legacy, as far as I'm concerned, was to turn TN solidly R. He was, I believe, the last Democrat to win a Senate election in Tennessee. It has also not voted for a Democrat for President since he lost the 2000 race. Mr. Gore, I salute you (with all the vigor that John Kerry ever managed to muster).
Also saluting: TN residents, given their 41st/50 ranking for poverty, 40th/50 ranking for inequality, 40th/50 ranking for income, 39th/50 ranking by high school graduation rates, and 36/50 rating for unemployment. Few more years of Republican senators and the floor's the limit for Tennessee! (Except for Mississippi)
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  #17  
Old 09-13-2017, 01:53 PM
iiandyiiii iiandyiiii is offline
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Yesterday, the Democrats won a state legislative seat in Oklahoma, 60-40, which went to Trump by 21 points last year:

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/201...down-the-plain

It's not the only state seat Democrats have turned in the last few months. The Democrats have flipped six so far nationwide since the 2016 election, while Republicans have not flipped a single one.
  #18  
Old 09-13-2017, 02:34 PM
Dinsdale Dinsdale is offline
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Originally Posted by Evil Economist View Post
Also saluting: TN residents, given their 41st/50 ranking for poverty, 40th/50 ranking for inequality, 40th/50 ranking for income, 39th/50 ranking by high school graduation rates, and 36/50 rating for unemployment. Few more years of Republican senators and the floor's the limit for Tennessee! (Except for Mississippi)
Also 7th highest percentage of citizens on SS disability!

Yep, the gubmint's the problem (except for when they're cutting me a check!)
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  #19  
Old 09-13-2017, 02:48 PM
Sage Rat Sage Rat is offline
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Supposedly, Bannon is intending to attack all of the Republican legislators who fought against him, and try to promote people who are more crazy in those regions.

I think he's failing to appreciate that negative campaigns are going to dirty everyone involved, so the Republican - whoever it might be - that makes it through the primaries (or whatever system is used to select congressmen) is going to come into the main fight pre-bloodied.

With Trump trying to make deals with Democrats, I think he's failing to appreciate that for all they might buddy up to him for the next year and a half, the instant the House turns Democratic is the instant every investigation gets turned up to eleven. They're only going to love the chance to turn on him in 2018, the more deeply he becomes trusting of them.
  #20  
Old 09-13-2017, 03:43 PM
HurricaneDitka HurricaneDitka is offline
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Originally Posted by iiandyiiii View Post
Yesterday, the Democrats won a state legislative seat in Oklahoma, 60-40, which went to Trump by 21 points last year:

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/201...down-the-plain

It's not the only state seat Democrats have turned in the last few months. The Democrats have flipped six so far nationwide since the 2016 election, while Republicans have not flipped a single one.
When you have to drill all the way down into state legislature seats to find your glimmer of hope, I don't know what more needs to be said on the matter. This article from Politico today seems relevant:

Quote:
Data from a range of focus groups and internal polls in swing states paint a difficult picture for the Democratic Party heading into the 2018 midterms and 2020 presidential election. It suggests that Democrats are naive if they believe Trumpís historically low approval numbers mean a landslide is coming.
  #21  
Old 09-13-2017, 04:43 PM
iiandyiiii iiandyiiii is offline
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Originally Posted by HurricaneDitka View Post
When you have to drill all the way down into state legislature seats to find your glimmer of hope, I don't know what more needs to be said on the matter. This article from Politico today seems relevant:
You're right, I should abandon all hope, rather than look rationally at the special elections so far and notice that Democrats are generally doing significantly better than they did in 2016. I definitely shouldn't be cautiously optimistic, volunteering and donating to Democratic campaigns. Far better if I cry in a corner.
  #22  
Old 09-13-2017, 07:06 PM
suranyi suranyi is offline
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Originally Posted by HurricaneDitka View Post
When you have to drill all the way down into state legislature seats to find your glimmer of hope, I don't know what more needs to be said on the matter. This article from Politico today seems relevant:
Now you're the one putting your hopes into polls. As 538 says, all the recent actual election returns have shown a very strong shift towards the Democrats. There have simply been a lot more state legislature elections than congressional elections.
  #23  
Old 09-13-2017, 07:27 PM
Sage Rat Sage Rat is offline
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Originally Posted by HurricaneDitka View Post
When you have to drill all the way down into state legislature seats to find your glimmer of hope, I don't know what more needs to be said on the matter. This article from Politico today seems relevant:
Good article, but it seems worth noting that while the Democrats simply assumed that they merely needed to be better than Donald Trump last round, this time they're actually doing some amount of market research in advance and shooting down ideas that don't work. This isn't to say that they'll land on something that works, but at least they're following a reasonable procedure to end up in a place that is connected to reality next time around.

If it was one month before election day, then this would be a disheartening article for Democrats. Over a year in advance, it's probably encouraging.
  #24  
Old 09-13-2017, 10:21 PM
Happy Lendervedder Happy Lendervedder is offline
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Good article, but it seems worth noting that while the Democrats simply assumed that they merely needed to be better than Donald Trump last round, this time they're actually doing some amount of market research in advance and shooting down ideas that don't work. This isn't to say that they'll land on something that works, but at least they're following a reasonable procedure to end up in a place that is connected to reality next time around.

If it was one month before election day, then this would be a disheartening article for Democrats. Over a year in advance, it's probably encouraging.
If you notice, the polling and focus groups were done by the Dems, and the results weren't actually released. The results were just "discussed" with Politico by top dogs at the DNC for the article. So, yeah, this is strategic on the part of the Democratic Party.

Last edited by Happy Lendervedder; 09-13-2017 at 10:22 PM.
  #25  
Old 09-14-2017, 05:51 AM
Hung Mung Hung Mung is offline
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I doubt the Democrats have much chance in Tennessee even if Corker retires. Their chances there would be slightly higher than a state like Idaho or something, but still, Tennessee is awfully red these days.
East TN is especially red. I would be happy to see Corker go, but we'd probably end up with Diane Black or Marsha Blackburn.

God, the governor election is going to be a shitshow. Mae Beavers, Diane Black and whispers of the one and only Alberto Gonzalez.
  #26  
Old 09-14-2017, 01:32 PM
Whack-a-Mole Whack-a-Mole is offline
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As (D) as I am in principle, I respect many moderate Republicans and hate the fact that the swings of the last 20 years have shoved out moderates on both sides.
What (D) moderates have been shoved out?

Quote:
[I]n the most recent Congress nearly 90 percent of Republican House members are not politically moderate. By contrast, 90 percent of Democratic members are moderates. It's quite difficult to square a chart like this with a claim that Democrats are abandoning the center faster than Republicans. As the chart shows, there are plenty of centrist Democrats left in the House -- but hardly any centrist Republicans.

SOURCE: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...=.1ff06e9340c9
  #27  
Old 09-14-2017, 01:46 PM
HurricaneDitka HurricaneDitka is offline
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What (D) moderates have been shoved out?
Jim Matheson, from Utah, was a moderate Democrat. He is no longer in office.
  #28  
Old 09-14-2017, 01:49 PM
iiandyiiii iiandyiiii is offline
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Ahh, the famous Jim Matheson, who I've definitely heard of and didn't have to google just now to confirm his existence.
  #29  
Old 09-14-2017, 01:54 PM
HurricaneDitka HurricaneDitka is offline
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Ahh, the famous Jim Matheson, who I've definitely heard of and didn't have to google just now to confirm his existence.
I was giving an example local to me. I can't help that you were ignorant of him.

Here is perhaps a more thorough summary, from Wikipedia:

Quote:
After growth in the caucus after the 2006 and 2008 elections, Blue Dog membership was nearly cut in half by the 2010 election, in which 26 members were re-elected but 28 were either defeated or chose not to run for re-election. Blue Dog membership was nearly cut in half again for the 113th Congress. Of the 27 Blue Dogs, 3 resigned (Giffords, Cardoza and Harman), while 10 chose not to run for re-election or were defeated. Of the remaining 14 members Adam Schiff left the coalition, but Pete Gallego (Texas), Kyrsten Sinema (Arizona), Ron Barber (Arizona), Nick Rahall (West Virginia), Dan Lipinski (Illinois), and Cheri Bustos (Illinois) joined them for the 113th Congress.
  #30  
Old 09-14-2017, 01:58 PM
iiandyiiii iiandyiiii is offline
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Originally Posted by HurricaneDitka View Post
I was giving an example local to me. I can't help that you were ignorant of him.

Here is perhaps a more thorough summary, from Wikipedia:
The blue dogs lost (or decided not to run because they predicted losing) because they ran in conservative districts which had swung left for '06 and '08, and then swung back in '10 or later. The only Democrat I can think of who was legitimately pushed out by the party was Joe Lieberman, and that was because he endorsed the Republican candidate for President.

But there are still tons and tons of moderate Democrats in Congress and the Senate, and many fewer moderate Republicans.

Last edited by iiandyiiii; 09-14-2017 at 01:59 PM.
  #31  
Old 09-14-2017, 02:11 PM
Whack-a-Mole Whack-a-Mole is offline
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Originally Posted by HurricaneDitka View Post
Jim Matheson, from Utah, was a moderate Democrat. He is no longer in office.
One person does not constitute a trend.

Besides, seems he retired and was not forced out. It could be argued his seat was in a conservative area and he figured he could not win the next time around (seems likely).

Regardless this was a liberal seat going more conservative and I was responding to someone who was suggesting both parties were polarizing (i.e. the right going more to the right and the left going more to the left by forcing moderates out). But that is not the case here.

Last edited by Whack-a-Mole; 09-14-2017 at 02:13 PM.
  #32  
Old 09-14-2017, 03:25 PM
Sage Rat Sage Rat is offline
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I'll just note, as I did in another thread, that if there's anyone in the DNC paying attention to this board, it might make sense to ask Steve Bullock to write a party platform and trial that around. It sounds about the right speed to grab back the Trump supporters.

http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/...5&postcount=33
  #33  
Old 09-14-2017, 04:37 PM
Mr. Miskatonic Mr. Miskatonic is offline
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Originally Posted by iiandyiiii View Post
The blue dogs lost (or decided not to run because they predicted losing) because they ran in conservative districts which had swung left for '06 and '08, and then swung back in '10 or later. The only Democrat I can think of who was legitimately pushed out by the party was Joe Lieberman, and that was because he endorsed the Republican candidate for President.

But there are still tons and tons of moderate Democrats in Congress and the Senate, and many fewer moderate Republicans.
I'm not crying for Lieberman given how he shoved one of the last moderate-liberal Reoublicans out of office (Weicker) in a very dirty campaign, then proceeded to be as rabid right as any tea party member.
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