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Old 11-09-2017, 12:09 PM
Elendil's Heir Elendil's Heir is online now
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2018 US midterm elections

An interesting overview by NPR, in light of Democrats this week winning the governorships of both Virginia and New Jersey: https://www.npr.org/2017/11/08/56256...r-one-year-out

At this point, the House looks takeable by the Dems, but the Senate may still be out of reach.
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Old 11-09-2017, 03:56 PM
Lance Turbo Lance Turbo is offline
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Right now PredictIt has the house at pretty close to a coin flip and the senate at around 1 in 4.

Neither market seems to have reacted to the 2017 elections which seems weird to me. The senate market appears to be reacting today to news about Roy Moore.
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Old 11-09-2017, 04:02 PM
Chisquirrel Chisquirrel is offline
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If this last Tuesday was a sign of increasing momentum and voter engagement, it could be a very interesting midterm. If it's a flash in the pan, it could be a very interesting midterm.

I think the midterms are still so far out that everything happening right now is just background noise for the PredictIt markets. Given that the AL special election is next month, I would expect the Moore bombshell to have a far greater effect.
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Old 11-09-2017, 04:41 PM
Lance Turbo Lance Turbo is offline
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Even with the Moore news today, it's still pretty unlikely that that senate seat is going to end up in the D column. However if Doug Jones does manage to prevail team D still has to have a lot of things go right to take the senate. This includes defending nine seats in states that Trump won. Among these are West Virginia and North Dakota which Trump won in landslides.

After that the D's need to pick up two more seats (again this is assuming Doug Jones wins). The easiest two are the Nevada seat occupied by Dean Heller and the Arizona seat that is open due to Jeff Flake's retirement.

If Doug Jones doesn't win, the D's need to pick up one more seat. Somehow the easiest targets there are Texas (Cruz) and Mississippi (Wicker).

This shows how big a deal this Alabama special election is, but the Roy Moore bombshell unfortunately does not make this race a slam dunk for Doug Jones.
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Old 11-10-2017, 03:39 PM
Elendil's Heir Elendil's Heir is online now
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For those who hadn't heard the latest about Roy Moore, the GOP Senate nominee in Alabama: https://www.washingtonpost.com/inves...=.87162260ac49
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Old 11-10-2017, 10:02 PM
Kolak of Twilo Kolak of Twilo is offline
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If Jones were to prevail over Moore in Alabama the chaos and panic in GOP ranks would be a delight to watch. Sadly, I don't see that happening. Too many in the GOP seem to subscribe to the idea that the only thing that matters is abortion abortion abortion. No way are the people who think this is the MOST IMPORTANT issue facing our country will ever vote for a pro-choice Democrat.
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Old 11-11-2017, 10:52 PM
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You forgot guns guns guns and immigration immigration immigration.
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Old 11-12-2017, 08:28 AM
adaher adaher is offline
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Originally Posted by Lance Turbo View Post
Right now PredictIt has the house at pretty close to a coin flip and the senate at around 1 in 4.

Neither market seems to have reacted to the 2017 elections which seems weird to me. The senate market appears to be reacting today to news about Roy Moore.
That's because Virginia and New Jersey and a handful of local races don't really tell us all that much about the midterms, just as the midterms don't tell us much about the general election.

There's still another year for a good economy to boost the incumbent party's popularity and for people to get used to Trump's insanity provided it doesn't actually result in anything important happening. There's also time for Democrats to Tea Party their own candidates and lose some winnable seats as the Republicans did in 2010 and 2012.

I've been spending some time on Twitter debating with people who want to primary Sen. Manchin and replace him with a progressive. That's not going to go well.
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Old 11-12-2017, 09:32 AM
Left Hand of Dorkness Left Hand of Dorkness is online now
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Originally Posted by Lance Turbo View Post
Right now PredictIt has the house at pretty close to a coin flip and the senate at around 1 in 4.

Neither market seems to have reacted to the 2017 elections which seems weird to me. The senate market appears to be reacting today to news about Roy Moore.
My understanding is that the 2017 elections were right in line with polling; the only surprise was to people who don't trust polls. They shouldn't have moved sites like Predict It much at all.
  #10  
Old 11-12-2017, 10:16 AM
BeenJammin BeenJammin is online now
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Yep, looks like the Dems are really rollin' now.
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Old 11-12-2017, 03:41 PM
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That's because Virginia and New Jersey and a handful of local races don't really tell us all that much about the midterms, just as the midterms don't tell us much about the general election.

There's still another year for a good economy to boost the incumbent party's popularity and for people to get used to Trump's insanity provided it doesn't actually result in anything important happening. There's also time for Democrats to Tea Party their own candidates and lose some winnable seats as the Republicans did in 2010 and 2012.

I've been spending some time on Twitter debating with people who want to primary Sen. Manchin and replace him with a progressive. That's not going to go well.
I know I've mentioned this is in other threads, but the greatest thing about the 2017 results is that is has completely pushed Donna Brazile and "Bernie was robbed!' out of the news completely. It's been a long, frustrating year with all the special election losses (although fought in deep red territory) Hopefully, the fury among the 'progressive' purity ponies will subside and the Democrats can focus on running winnable candidates in all races. Manchin would be an awful candidate for California, but he's the best you're going to get in West Virginia and having a senator that votes with you 90% of the time and can help decide the majority leader is far better than nominating a Sanders clone and losing in a landslide which elects a Republican who votes against your policies all the time and will keep Mitch McConnell as majority leader.
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Old 11-13-2017, 05:20 AM
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My understanding is that the 2017 elections were right in line with polling; the only surprise was to people who don't trust polls. They shouldn't have moved sites like Predict It much at all.
The polls predicted the winner in VA but he won by a greater margin than the polls indicated, by several points.
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  #13  
Old 11-13-2017, 06:52 AM
Left Hand of Dorkness Left Hand of Dorkness is online now
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Hopefully, the fury among the 'progressive' purity ponies will subside
Just so you know, your constant stream of contempt and insults toward the left wing of the party is a great way to undermine that hope of yours.
  #14  
Old 11-13-2017, 08:04 AM
ElvisL1ves ElvisL1ves is offline
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Just so you know, the constant stream of contempt and insults from the progressive purity ponies toward the functioning mainstream of the party is a great way to repeat the election of Trump and undermine the hope of all of civilized America.

Or you can keep massaging your resentments and blaming everyone but yourself for not having every wish catered to. It's your choice, yes, but with consequences far beyond yourselves.

Capisce?
  #15  
Old 11-13-2017, 08:15 AM
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Just so you know, your constant stream of contempt and insults toward the left wing of the party is a great way to undermine that hope of yours.
My bias is to agree with you but to be fair, the comment is not aimed at "the left wing" but at those of the left wing who stay home rather than vote for what they see as the lesser of two evils. The same criticism should apply to any who are more moderate who stay home rather than vote for a progressive. Is it your impression that there are as many of the latter as the former?

ElvisL1ves I am if anything militantly moderate but describing the mainstream as "functioning" often seems like a stretch. There are valid criticisms to be made and arguments those who oppose Trumpism can have amongst ourselves so long as end of day circle our wagons. IMHO.
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Old 11-13-2017, 08:22 AM
ElvisL1ves ElvisL1ves is offline
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describing the mainstream as "functioning" often seems like a stretch.
Not when you compare it to the alternatives, the anti-everything Republicans and the faction that fancies itself and its candidate du jour pure because it's never gotten its hands dirty actually trying to accomplish anything.

The party mainstream easily won the popular vote after establishing ACA and recovering from the Republicans' economic disaster, remember. I think that's functioning.

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arguments those who oppose Trumpism can have amongst ourselves so long as end of day circle our wagons. IMHO.
Yes, and to do that we need the purity ponies to quit pouting and got on board with the doers.
  #17  
Old 11-13-2017, 11:00 AM
DSeid DSeid is offline
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Not when you compare it to the alternatives, the anti-everything Republicans and the faction that fancies itself and its candidate du jour pure because it's never gotten its hands dirty actually trying to accomplish anything.

The party mainstream easily won the popular vote after establishing ACA and recovering from the Republicans' economic disaster, remember. I think that's functioning.

Yes, and to do that we need the purity ponies to quit pouting and got on board with the doers.
The party mainstream lost the election to Trump. To Trump. And they cannot blame that all on "purity ponies."

Making the point that sitting on your ass because the lesser evil (to your POV) is not perfect is a recipe for greater evil is fair. We have been seeing what happens as a result and it would be worse were not they so dysfunctional. Insulting those who support and prefer candidates you think have not gotten their hands dirty actually doing anything as they try to get into a position to actually get their hands dirty and do something. That's doing the GOP's work for them and is the recipe for more of a Bannonworld. You know what they call a "purity pony" when they win and control a party? The mainstream. Oh it takes a cycle, but we are seeing it on the GOP side. Trumpism, whatever that actually is, is the mainstream now. Again, IMHO.
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Old 11-13-2017, 12:20 PM
ElvisL1ves ElvisL1ves is offline
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Insulting those who support and prefer candidates you think have not gotten their hands dirty actually doing anything as they try to get into a position to actually get their hands dirty and do something.
Dismissing factual criticism as "insulting" is an avoidance tactic, and on a pretty juvenile level at that. It's just true, and there's no way to get it through in a sufficiently groveling way. That avoidance is "doing the GOP's work for them", as a wise man just said.

To repeat, it's time for the purity ponies to quit sulking and take on some actual responsibility. If you disagree, you're not explaining why, you're simply complaining about tone of voice.

ETA: I do note that you're complaining that the Democratic mainstream lost to Trump, which is fair, but you're stopping well short of saying what they should have done instead.

Last edited by ElvisL1ves; 11-13-2017 at 12:23 PM.
  #19  
Old 11-13-2017, 09:30 PM
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As in basketball, it's a matchup issue. The purity ponies have a point when they say Sanders would have been better against Trump than Clinton was. But Sanders wouldn't have been better against a more normal Republican. I realize that primary voters can't strategize, they just support who they like or who they think has the best chance to win.

Which is why both sides should have compromised and nominated Martin O'Malley.
  #20  
Old 11-13-2017, 10:35 PM
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Dismissing factual criticism as "insulting" is an avoidance tactic, and on a pretty juvenile level at that. It's just true, and there's no way to get it through in a sufficiently groveling way. That avoidance is "doing the GOP's work for them", as a wise man just said.

To repeat, it's time for the purity ponies to quit sulking and take on some actual responsibility. If you disagree, you're not explaining why, you're simply complaining about tone of voice.

ETA: I do note that you're complaining that the Democratic mainstream lost to Trump, which is fair, but you're stopping well short of saying what they should have done instead.
Who are these "purity ponies" you speak of? I am not aware of any group by that name. Can you provide examples of public figures who might identify themselves as "purity ponies"? Furthermore, can you explain how, empirically, you would know if these purity ponies were to quit sulking and take on some actual responsibility? What evidence would you require? Thanks in advance.
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Old 11-13-2017, 10:42 PM
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That's because Virginia and New Jersey and a handful of local races don't really tell us all that much about the midterms, just as the midterms don't tell us much about the general election.

There's still another year for a good economy to boost the incumbent party's popularity and for people to get used to Trump's insanity provided it doesn't actually result in anything important happening. There's also time for Democrats to Tea Party their own candidates and lose some winnable seats as the Republicans did in 2010 and 2012.

I've been spending some time on Twitter debating with people who want to primary Sen. Manchin and replace him with a progressive. That's not going to go well.
The good economy doesn't seem to have helped much so far. What happens if there's a recession? The steady downward trend of Trump's popularity might stop at some point, but then again it might not. I'm not seeing much reason for the Republicans to be optimistic here.

Offhand I'd guess primarying Manchin would be a bad idea. Anyone on Twitter have polling data?
  #22  
Old 11-14-2017, 05:22 AM
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Right now PredictIt has ... the senate at around 1 in 4.
Looking just now, I averaged Buy Yes and Sell Yes prices, summed the averages, and expected the result to be close to 100. Instead I got 118.5. What am I missing?
  #23  
Old 11-14-2017, 02:39 PM
adaher adaher is offline
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Means more people are betting on the yes sides than no sides of Democrats vs. Republicans. Which also means fans of the parties are pushing their odds up a little more than justified.
  #24  
Old 11-19-2017, 02:57 PM
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Nothing much will happen, as Trump voters in red states will stick to their guns. But when you get a presidential candidate, things get heated. More people turn up to vote. Trump failures will show up by 2020. a lot of stuff will happen by then.
  #25  
Old 11-19-2017, 03:24 PM
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ETA: I do note that you're complaining that the Democratic mainstream lost to Trump, which is fair, but you're stopping well short of saying what they should have done instead.
Before the election? Not run Hillary Clinton. After the election? Stop pretending that it was anyone's fault other than Hillary that Trump became president.

Centrist democrats humiliated themselves in 2016. Y'all need to develop a little humility, and stop sneering at the people who pointed out you were fucking this thing up over a year ago.
  #26  
Old 11-19-2017, 04:05 PM
John Mace John Mace is online now
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Who are these "purity ponies" you speak of? I am not aware of any group by that name. Can you provide examples of public figures who might identify themselves as "purity ponies"? Furthermore, can you explain how, empirically, you would know if these purity ponies were to quit sulking and take on some actual responsibility? What evidence would you require? Thanks in advance.
I think a purity pony is like a promiscuity girl, but without the promiscuity.
  #27  
Old 11-19-2017, 04:14 PM
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Centrist democrats humiliated themselves in 2016. Y'all need to develop a little humility, and stop sneering at the people who pointed out you were fucking this thing up over a year ago.
It's not centrists who lost, it's Hillary and the clueless who voted for her in the primary who humiliated themselves. Any other centrist who have wiped the floor with Trump. Hillary was uniquely the worst possible candidate to put on the ballot.
  #28  
Old 11-20-2017, 08:08 AM
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I don't think the centrist of leftist label had much to do with it. Voters of both parties now want an outsider to go to DC and "fix things" in DC. The belief is that once you are there a few years, you have been bought and paid for by industry lobbyists.
  #29  
Old 11-20-2017, 11:16 PM
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It's not centrists who lost, it's Hillary and the clueless who voted for her in the primary who humiliated themselves. Any other centrist who have wiped the floor with Trump. Hillary was uniquely the worst possible candidate to put on the ballot.
Yep. Clinton isn't the worst candidate in a vacuum, but against Trump it was the worst matchup imaginable.
  #30  
Old 11-24-2017, 02:25 AM
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A National Review writer makes a point that I find hard to refute. While the Republicans in control has been a shitshow, they can in fact run on the fact that conditions in the country have continued to get better:

Quote:
Republicans are going to face tough midterm elections in 2018, whether they pass tax reform on not. But they probably will be able to point to some improvements in the quality of life of Americans even without passing big bills: a more secure border and dramatic drops in illegal immigration, the elimination of the Islamic State as a state, an unemployment rate around four and a half percent, a stock market that has increased 28 percent since Election Day 2016, and a more accountable and better-performing Department of Veterans Affairs. (Right now, more than 30 percent of VA appointments are made in the private sector, and one of the long-term ideas on the table is merging the VA programs with TRICARE, the Pentagon’s insurance plan that allows active-duty military personnel to use private health-care providers.)

Read more at: http://www.nationalreview.com/corner...oving-country-.
We've never seen a shitshow this bad, so it's hard to predict if that's enough to cause a wave election. But normally, wave elections don't happen when things are going this well.
  #31  
Old 11-24-2017, 05:15 PM
gatorslap gatorslap is offline
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A National Review writer makes a point that I find hard to refute. While the Republicans in control has been a shitshow, they can in fact run on the fact that conditions in the country have continued to get better:



We've never seen a shitshow this bad, so it's hard to predict if that's enough to cause a wave election. But normally, wave elections don't happen when things are going this well.
Your link doesn't work, but anyway, that seems to be making a lot of assumptions. I don't believe the politics around illegal immigration has ever been correlated to the actual current rate of illegal immigration, for one thing. Also, I don't believe many would give credit to either Trump or Republicans generally for ISIS's decline.

The economy wasn't bad yet in 2006 and had improved a lot by 2014. 1994, too, the economy had seen a couple years of healthy recovery and was in pretty good shape. There'd need to be some kind of argument to distinguish 2018 from those.

If, come election day 2018, the voters are angry about Obamacare repeal, net neutrality, and a tax cut for the rich / tax hike for some of the middle class (even if the Republicans fail to actually enact any of those), it won't do them much good to say "hey, the stock markets are doing well!"
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  #32  
Old 11-24-2017, 05:58 PM
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Yep. Clinton isn't the worst candidate in a vacuum, but against Trump it was the worst matchup imaginable.
Worst overall and in every case. The only way she had any chance at all was against a disgusting piece of shit like Trump. Any other republican and she wouldn't have been close to the utterly pointless overall vote total win she is so proud of. People seriously underestimate how much of Trump's vote, and continuing support he gets is people saying "Now don't you wish you had voted for Hillary" to remind them why they supported him.

Last edited by wolfman; 11-24-2017 at 06:01 PM.
  #33  
Old 01-08-2018, 10:19 PM
Elendil's Heir Elendil's Heir is online now
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Here's CNN on four scary numbers for Republicans in this year's midterms: http://www.cnn.com/2018/01/08/politi...ons/index.html
  #34  
Old 01-08-2018, 11:15 PM
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It's not centrists who lost, it's Hillary and the clueless who voted for her in the primary who humiliated themselves. Any other centrist who have wiped the floor with Trump. Hillary was uniquely the worst possible candidate to put on the ballot.
This is a complete fantasy. I hear it all the time from Bernie supporters, but they always seem to forget the fact that he was never exposed to the Republican shit-flinging machine. He'd've been marked as a Communist from the get-go.

It also took a concatenation of really rotten things happening to Hillary's campaign. One of them was that those 'purity ponies' were so butthurt that Bernie wasn't nominated that they pulled their votes to some degree. And Comey capped it all off. I'm convinced that, had he just kept his big mouth shut for a couple of weeks, we'd have President Hillary instead of the shitstain we're stuck with now.

The thing is, Bernie WASN'T nominated, and Bernie supporters couldn't get over it. So spare me how I, who actually did get off my ass and vote for the best and most viable candidate in the election, am to blame.
  #35  
Old 01-10-2018, 01:01 AM
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Couldn't find a gerrymandering or North Carolina thread...

A panel of federal judges struck down North Carolina’s congressional map on Tuesday, condemning it as unconstitutional because Republicans had drawn the map seeking a political advantage.

Quote:
The ruling was the first time that a federal court had blocked a congressional map because of a partisan gerrymander, and it instantly endangered Republican seats in the coming elections.
ETA: and a Maryland ruling to come - this time a Republican challenge to boundary drawing. Wisconsin is also a recent gerrymandering battleground.

Last edited by Guest-starring: Id!; 01-10-2018 at 01:04 AM.
  #36  
Old 01-10-2018, 08:21 AM
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ETA: and a Maryland ruling to come - this time a Republican challenge to boundary drawing. Wisconsin is also a recent gerrymandering battleground.
As a Marylander and a staunch Democrat I say Hear! Hear! Maryland's districts are a disgrace. Gerrymandering is bad no matter which side does it.
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Old 01-10-2018, 09:27 PM
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I heard one analysis that the Supremes took on the Maryland one while the Wisconsin one was still pending in order to release a ruling on both one against each side at the same time and that the Maryland case brought by Republicans may present a stronger case to come up with restrictions on gerrymandering (that of course have great potential to undo GOP gerrymandered advantages across the country).
  #38  
Old 01-10-2018, 10:31 PM
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It's not going to help much because they actually have to gerrymander by race to comply with the Civil Rights Act, which will add to the Republicans' natural geographical advantages. There is simply no way to draw districts "fairly" for partisan purposes without really weird shapes.
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Old 01-11-2018, 02:42 PM
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Bonk me if this has been posted elsewhere...(probably in Mueller pit thread). Can't believe I'm actually using the "b" word, but there's a bipartisan probe into election cyber-security, and a couple nights ago Judy Woodruff talked to the Madame Tussaud-like automaton James Lankford (Oklahoma - R) (manoMAN what a stuffed shirt that dude is) and the super-swell Amy Klobuchar (Minnesota - D) about their recent efforts on a bill proposing better sharing of information between state election officials, to designate a state representative to get any classified information, to provide for resources to scan for vulnerabilities, and to get the right election equipment.

Klobuchar went on to say that 42 states still have yet to upgrade their election equipment in over a decade, and that Russia knows it.

Lankford proferred that after an election, there should be an option to audit if there's sufficient reason to believe that some outside entity might have tampered in any way with the election, to find a means to verify if there was any cyber attack.

The crummy news is that not much cyber-security can get fully realised by November, but Lankford seems quite confident that by 2020 the DHS will have fully engaged with the states enough to ramp up electoral security. (whether I can take that at face value I guess is another question)

Kobluchar mentioned the need for money (and pronto) for screening for vulnerabilities in the states' existing equipment.

One of the challenges Lankford feels they're facing is that 12 states cannot audit elections, so if they got hacked, there's no mechanism in place to find that out.
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