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  #51  
Old 02-06-2019, 11:10 AM
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I still expect (and hope) Northam will resign. Based on Herring's statement, and the different circumstances (he was younger and dressed as a rapper, rather than a klanner/slave) I would guess Herring will survive this, though I think it's likely this is his last political stop.

I really don't know about Fairfax -- that will depend on the investigation into the accusation against him that I presume is ongoing.
  #52  
Old 02-06-2019, 11:11 AM
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The identity of the Fairfax accuser has been widely reported since the accusations first came out (indeed, one of the initial reports showed a very recent screenshot of a social media post of hers lamenting that her attacker was about to get a big promotion).

Until she hired a lawyer, she was named mostly in partisan outlets (Washington Examiner, Huffington Post), but now you can find her information on places like NBC News. To the extent it matters to you, she appears to be an "accomplished and respected professional".
Thanks. I had only read the NYT piece.
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Old 02-06-2019, 11:11 AM
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No matter which side you are on, you have to admit that is funny...in in sad, all-you-can-do-is-laugh sort of way.
  #54  
Old 02-06-2019, 11:13 AM
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What's to stop either:

1) a) Northam resigns
b) Fairfax is sworn in as governor
c) Fairfax appoints a new (Dem) Lt Gov

or

1) a) Fairfax resigns
b) Northam appoints a new (Dem) Lt Gov

Either one of which would keep Cox from becoming governor even if all of Northam, Fairfax, and Herring ultimately resigned.
  #55  
Old 02-06-2019, 11:14 AM
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What's to stop either:

1) a) Northam resigns
b) Fairfax is sworn in as governor
c) Fairfax appoints a new (Dem) Lt Gov

or

1) a) Fairfax resigns
b) Northam appoints a new (Dem) Lt Gov

Either one of which would keep Cox from becoming governor even if all of Northam, Fairfax, and Herring ultimately resigned.
I'm not sure if LG can be appointed in VA if there's a vacancy.
  #56  
Old 02-06-2019, 11:15 AM
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I'm not getting that. It is clear he feels that it is a hit job, but as the story originated with a right wing site, I see his complaint more that he sees a coordinated effort by the right.

During the Kavanaugh hearings, republican senators pretty much explicitly said that they would start pushing those sorts of stories, and as they did not believe that what Ford said was true, that indicates that they have no desire to make sure that the stories that they push are true.
Yes, as Fretful Porpentine said, if you look at his quote our of context, that seems the reasonable interpretation: “Does anybody think it’s any coincidence that on the eve of my potentially being elevated, this uncorroborated smear comes up? You don’t have to be cynical, you don’t have to understand politics, to understand when someone’s trying to manipulate a process to harm someone’s character without any basis whatsoever.”

But he said that specifically in response to a question about whether he thought Northram was behind the story coming out. In that context, he's not exactly accusing Northram, but he's also definitely not saying "No, I think it was those other guys".
  #57  
Old 02-06-2019, 11:17 AM
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I'm not sure if LG can be appointed in VA if there's a vacancy.
If the new Lt Gov needs to be approved by the legislature, that's a problem.
  #58  
Old 02-06-2019, 11:18 AM
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I still expect (and hope) Northam will resign. Based on Herring's statement, and the different circumstances (he was younger and dressed as a rapper, rather than a klanner/slave) I would guess Herring will survive this, though I think it's likely this is his last political stop.

I really don't know about Fairfax -- that will depend on the investigation into the accusation against him that I presume is ongoing.
You say Herring could likely survive this, but in your opinion do you think he has a moral obligation to step down in light of his blackface admission?
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  #59  
Old 02-06-2019, 11:19 AM
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Originally Posted by RTFirefly View Post
What's to stop either:

1) a) Northam resigns
b) Fairfax is sworn in as governor
c) Fairfax appoints a new (Dem) Lt Gov

or

1) a) Fairfax resigns
b) Northam appoints a new (Dem) Lt Gov

Either one of which would keep Cox from becoming governor even if all of Northam, Fairfax, and Herring ultimately resigned.
Actually, I stand corrected (possibly) -- if this is correct: https://ballotpedia.org/Lieutenant_Governor_of_Virginia

then the governor can appoint a LG in a vacancy, and thus your plan would be possible.
  #60  
Old 02-06-2019, 11:20 AM
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You say Herring could likely survive this, but in your opinion do you think he has a moral obligation to step down in light of his blackface admission?
I don't know. Still thinking about it, and I want to see what else he and others in VA (most significantly black Democrats in VA) have to say about it. I'll say that so far he's handling it a lot better than Northam did, but it's early.
  #61  
Old 02-06-2019, 11:34 AM
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I'm white and I acknowledge that this may influence my views and that others may feel differently, but I can't get too up in arms about this. The racial awareness of 1980 wasn't anything like it is today. its not too surprising that he and his friends might not know better when they decided to dress up as rappers. There is no indication that the intent was to poke fun as African American's expense, and its no where near as inflammatory as an obvious minstrel characticture next to a white sheeted KKK member that is bringing down Northam.
  #62  
Old 02-06-2019, 12:01 PM
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Virginia is a weird place.

My people are in the Northern Neck, down in between the Potomac and Rappahannock Rivers. Westmoreland County was the birthplace of Washington, Jefferson, Monroe...and Robert E Lee. My grandparents both worked at Stratford Hall, ancestral Lee home and a working plantation. I visited many times in my childhood.

But I was a White kid in the Southwest. What the fuck did I know? I wore a Virginia t-shirt to school in 6th grade. Great shirt, soft, light blue, fit me well. And had a Confederate Battle Flag on it.

I was called out by a classmate for wearing a racist symbol. (This when I was also a huge Dukes of Hazzard fan.) It hurt and I felt ashamed...but mostly I had to reconcile the idea that this shirt, this symbol, so perfectly acceptable in rural Virginia, was a symbol of hate elsewhere.

I never wore that shirt to school again. But if I had grown up in Virginia? Gone to school there? Continued to see it as merely a harmless symbol of "cultural heritage?" Especially given the broader cultural acceptance of racist nonsense in the 1980s as previously mentioned? Yeah, I could have continued wearing or doing stupid racist shit well into my 20s or beyond.

Doesn't mean it's not stupid racist shit.
  #63  
Old 02-06-2019, 12:10 PM
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Which senators said explicitly that they were going to start pushing those sorts of stories? I can think of some who lamented that those sorts of stories were being pushed, and that someone's reputation could be ruined by them, but that is not the same thing.

So, a few quotes from Republican Senators who said explicitly that they were going to start pushing stories about sexual assault. TIA.
If you didn't read the quotes the first time, then repeating them probably won't do you any good.

But, just in case you actually missed it during the Kavanaugh fiasco, Lindsey Graham said "Let me tell my Democratic friends, If this is the new norm, you’d better watch out for your nominees.”

Now, either he was acknowledging that Ford's allegations were true, and warning his democratic friends to make sure that they do not have credible allegations against them, or he was doubting Ford's testimony, and saying that the new normal would be false testimony against democrats.

Do you think that he believed Ford's testimony?

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Originally Posted by Thing Fish View Post
Yes, as Fretful Porpentine said, if you look at his quote our of context, that seems the reasonable interpretation: “Does anybody think it’s any coincidence that on the eve of my potentially being elevated, this uncorroborated smear comes up? You don’t have to be cynical, you don’t have to understand politics, to understand when someone’s trying to manipulate a process to harm someone’s character without any basis whatsoever.”

But he said that specifically in response to a question about whether he thought Northram was behind the story coming out. In that context, he's not exactly accusing Northram, but he's also definitely not saying "No, I think it was those other guys".
Considering that the smear came from the exact same media site as the one against the gov., I don't think that is what he is saying. I really think that you are reading too much into that, if you think that he is actually accusing the governor of smearing him. I mean, that would just be stupid, as the photo of the governor only surfaced "moments" before the allegations against him. How could the governor even have set that up so quickly?

OTOH, having them both coming from the same media site, does sound like someone trying to manipulate a process.

There is no means, nor motive for the governor to smear Fairfax, and there is no reason for Fairfax to think so.
  #64  
Old 02-06-2019, 12:17 PM
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It's a good thing Virginia didn't elect Ed Gillespie... There were rumors that he was prejudiced.

Virginia... Becoming the new Florida day by day.
  #65  
Old 02-06-2019, 12:21 PM
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Originally Posted by k9bfriender View Post
If you didn't read the quotes the first time, then repeating them probably won't do you any good.

But, just in case you actually missed it during the Kavanaugh fiasco, Lindsey Graham said "Let me tell my Democratic friends, If this is the new norm, you’d better watch out for your nominees.”
Do you have a cite for what you claimed? TIA.

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Old 02-06-2019, 12:44 PM
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Do you have a cite for what you claimed? TIA.

Regards,
Shodan
Sorry, I suppose I should have linked to an article that he said it in. Not that it would be that hard to find.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-polit...rett-kavanaugh

So, did you miss that the first time, or does repeating it not do you any good?

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  #67  
Old 02-06-2019, 12:54 PM
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How do we start the investigation? He admitted that he had consensual sex with the woman. She says it was not. Unless this hotel has cameras in the room (I'm being silly) what next?
Not sure why people get so confused as to how investigations work when the person being investigated is a politician (or SCOTUS nominee).

Here's an answer for you: you investigate it exactly the same way you would investigate any other reported sexual assault. And if, after a REAL investigation, there's not sufficient proof of the assault, then the conclusion of your report is that "we were unable to find corroborating evidence of the sexual assault sufficient to bring this case to trial."

One of the words in my previous paragraph has been bolded, italicized, and underlined, because that's the key bit that Republicans proved they didn't get.
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  #68  
Old 02-06-2019, 01:02 PM
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538's Nathaniel Rakich:
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Imagine being a black Democrat in Virginia this week. I would feel so betrayed.
Which pretty much looks like how at least some of them are feeling.

And that's what's driving all this, what's making it a big deal.
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It's a good thing Virginia didn't elect Ed Gillespie... There were rumors that he was prejudiced.
You bet your ass he was, and he ran a campaign, in 2017, that amply demonstrated that.

The difference, of course, is expectations. We're pretty much used to the Republicans being the bad guys. We've priced it in; it's long since ceased to surprise us when they do stuff in the here and now that's much worse than what Northam and Herring did 35-40 years ago.

And they ARE the bad guys, for being the people who either do this shit routinely, or at least condone and tolerate it in their own. And as long as there are enough voters who tolerate them, this dichotomy will continue.

But Virginia's blacks weren't expecting this from their friends and allies, which is why they feel betrayed. They'd given up on Gillespie & Co. decades ago; no point in trying to change people who don't want to change, and have no reason to.

It's a real mess that this is happening right now. But with the apparent exceptions of Northam, Fairfax, and a few of their allies, nobody's dismissing any of this.

When the GOP starts tossing its racists, they'll have standing to comment. Until then, who gives a good goddamn what any Republican has to say about this?
  #69  
Old 02-06-2019, 01:07 PM
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Sorry, I suppose I should have linked to an article that he said it in. Not that it would be that hard to find.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-polit...rett-kavanaugh

So, did you miss that the first time, or does repeating it not do you any good?
The problem isn't that you didn't link, it is that the link doesn't establish what you claimed.
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During the Kavanaugh hearings, republican senators pretty much explicitly said that they would start pushing those sorts of stories
Your Graham quote doesn't say that.

Unless this is one of those paraphrases you said you didn't like. If it is, then you should be more careful in your phrasing.

Regards,
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  #70  
Old 02-06-2019, 01:14 PM
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The accuser, Vanessa Tyson, has put out a statement through her lawyers: https://twitter.com/sarahmccammon/st...23842745647104

It strikes me as credible (and horrifying).
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Old 02-06-2019, 01:17 PM
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The problem isn't that you didn't link, it is that the link doesn't establish what you claimed. Your Graham quote doesn't say that.
As I thought, showing it to you again doesn't help.

Unless you think that Graham believed Ford, and was just giving friendly advice to his colleagues, then he absolutely was indicating that he was expecting to see false allegations come out against democrats.

And here there are republicans pushing these sorts of stories. The only way you can say that his prediction was false is with a "no true scotsman" defense, and claim that these media outlets are not "real republicans." Otherwise, we have his prediction, and we have the results of his prediction.
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Unless this is one of those paraphrases you said you didn't like. If it is, then you should be more careful in your phrasing.

Regards,
Shodan
Nah, paraphrases that I don't like is when you use quotes around it and imply that it is something that someone other that you yourself said. I did nothing of the sort, as that would be extremely poor writing practices.
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Old 02-06-2019, 01:33 PM
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If you didn't read the quotes the first time, then repeating them probably won't do you any good.

But, just in case you actually missed it during the Kavanaugh fiasco, Lindsey Graham said "Let me tell my Democratic friends, If this is the new norm, you’d better watch out for your nominees.”

Now, either he was acknowledging that Ford's allegations were true, and warning his democratic friends to make sure that they do not have credible allegations against them, or he was doubting Ford's testimony, and saying that the new normal would be false testimony against democrats.

Do you think that he believed Ford's testimony?



Considering that the smear came from the exact same media site as the one against the gov., I don't think that is what he is saying. I really think that you are reading too much into that, if you think that he is actually accusing the governor of smearing him. I mean, that would just be stupid, as the photo of the governor only surfaced "moments" before the allegations against him. How could the governor even have set that up so quickly?

OTOH, having them both coming from the same media site, does sound like someone trying to manipulate a process.

There is no means, nor motive for the governor to smear Fairfax, and there is no reason for Fairfax to think so.
Jeez, dude, it's literally the first paragraph of the OP's link. You have a problem, take it up with the NYT.

Quote:
RICHMOND, Va. — Lt. Gov. Justin Fairfax of Virginia emphatically denied on Monday a woman’s claim that he sexually assaulted her in 2004, suggesting at one point that Gov. Ralph Northam’s supporters were trying to block his ascent to the governorship at a moment when Mr. Northam is besieged by demands that he resign over charges of racism.

“Does anybody think it’s any coincidence that on the eve of potentially my being elevated that that’s when this smear comes out?” Mr. Fairfax told reporters surrounding him in the rotunda of the state Capitol about whether he believes Mr. Northam, a fellow Democrat, was behind the accusation’s coming to light.
  #73  
Old 02-06-2019, 01:41 PM
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Jeez, dude, it's literally the first paragraph of the OP's link. You have a problem, take it up with the NYT.
I still don't understand how the quote in that NYT piece indicates Fairfax is blaming Northam. Blaming dirty politics, obviously. But nothing in Fairfax's words that I could see indicates he thinks Northam's team is responsible.
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Old 02-06-2019, 01:59 PM
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I still don't understand how the quote in that NYT piece indicates Fairfax is blaming Northam. Blaming dirty politics, obviously. But nothing in Fairfax's words that I could see indicates he thinks Northam's team is responsible.
Let me reorder the quote and the reported but not quoted question he was answering in the quote box above.

Mr. Fairfax told reporters surrounding him ...whether he believes Mr. Northam...was behind the accusation’s coming to light. “Does anybody think it’s any coincidence that on the eve of potentially my being elevated that that’s when this smear comes out?”

The quote in isolation could be pointing to other possible people out to get him. The question he was responding to points it right back at Northam.
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Old 02-06-2019, 02:03 PM
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But he wasn't asked "Do you think this is dirty politics?" He was asked "Do you think Northram is behind this?" If he doesn't think so, wouldn't he have said "No" before going on to criticize whoever did do it?
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Old 02-06-2019, 02:04 PM
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Let me reorder the quote and the reported but not quoted question he was answering in the quote box above.

Mr. Fairfax told reporters surrounding him ...whether he believes Mr. Northam...was behind the accusation’s coming to light. “Does anybody think it’s any coincidence that on the eve of potentially my being elevated that that’s when this smear comes out?”

The quote in isolation could be pointing to other possible people out to get him. The question he was responding to points it right back at Northam.
Okay, if that was the answer to a question about Northam's involvement, then I see what you mean -- but reading the article, that wasn't clear to me.

If politicians are graded on how they respond to scandals, then so far Northam and Fairfax get an F. Herring, at least, seems to have responded well.

Last edited by iiandyiiii; 02-06-2019 at 02:05 PM.
  #77  
Old 02-06-2019, 02:39 PM
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Jeez, dude, it's literally the first paragraph of the OP's link. You have a problem, take it up with the NYT.
I do not feel as thought the NYT sums up his answer correctly, but assuming they did, then fairfax needs to step down, because he's the stupidest fucker to ever hold an office.

He not only thinks that the governor thinks that smearing his lt governor will have any sort of impact on whether or not he stays in, he also thinks that the governor could have found this woman, and gotten her to give this statement to the same media outlet that attacked the governor, and do it in what, about a day?

Yeah, if he believes that the governor is behind this, then he is too stupid to live, much less hold office.

OTOH, there is a possibility that there is a misunderstanding with the question and response, that Fairfax, like all politicians, answered the question he wanted to answer, rather than the one he was asked.

Too stupid to live, or a misunderstanding, I can see how people would choose to think that he's that stupid, but I, for now at least, can give the benefit of the doubt, and say that I think he just wasn't answering the question that was asked. You are welcome to think that his IQ is well below room temperature.
  #78  
Old 02-06-2019, 03:01 PM
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The accuser, Vanessa Tyson, has put out a statement through her lawyers: https://twitter.com/sarahmccammon/st...23842745647104

It strikes me as credible (and horrifying).

Just read Tyson's statement. Holy shit. With more information, this looks like Fairfax should at the very least leave office, and possibly face prosecution.

Last edited by Left Hand of Dorkness; 02-06-2019 at 03:02 PM.
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Old 02-06-2019, 03:08 PM
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He not only thinks that the governor thinks that smearing his lt governor will have any sort of impact on whether or not he stays in, he also thinks that the governor could have found this woman, and gotten her to give this statement to the same media outlet that attacked the governor, and do it in what, about a day?
I don't think she gave a statement to the media outlet that broke the Northam story. According to her statement today (which is consistent with what I remember at the time), she posted a social media post about Northam's (expected) resignation and how it would cause her attacker to get a big promotion. That post generated "numerous inquiries from journalists" and (as she was deciding what to do) the media outlet posted that social media post and identifying information about her (At least that's how I read her statement today). Within hours (in the middle of night) Fairfax denied it and took some creative license with why the Washington Post didn't run the story back before the inauguration (i.e., her story has been floating around and Fairfax has been aware of it for some months). And, with that, the story took off.

I don't know if Fairfax is right to suggest that Northam or Mayor Stoney were behind it. But, it would not have taken much effort to see the social media post and send it to an outlet that (being partisan in nature) was likely to run with it.

Last edited by Falchion; 02-06-2019 at 03:09 PM.
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Old 02-06-2019, 03:13 PM
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I don't know if Fairfax is right to suggest that Northam or Mayor Stoney were behind it. But, it would not have taken much effort to see the social media post and send it to an outlet that (being partisan in nature) was likely to run with it.
Read the link from iiandyiiii's post above.

Not picking on you, but her statement is important enough that it should totally upend the conversation. It's very difficult to square her statement with any sort of shenanigans on Northam's or Stoney's or anyone else's part.
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Old 02-06-2019, 03:21 PM
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I don't think she gave a statement to the media outlet that broke the Northam story. According to her statement today (which is consistent with what I remember at the time), she posted a social media post about Northam's (expected) resignation and how it would cause her attacker to get a big promotion. That post generated "numerous inquiries from journalists" and (as she was deciding what to do) the media outlet posted that social media post and identifying information about her (At least that's how I read her statement today). Within hours (in the middle of night) Fairfax denied it and took some creative license with why the Washington Post didn't run the story back before the inauguration (i.e., her story has been floating around and Fairfax has been aware of it for some months). And, with that, the story took off.

I don't know if Fairfax is right to suggest that Northam or Mayor Stoney were behind it. But, it would not have taken much effort to see the social media post and send it to an outlet that (being partisan in nature) was likely to run with it.
I missed the edit window, but even looking at Fairfax's statement today he indicates that he shared the allegation with "a number of leaders in Richmond" when the allegation first surfaced prior to the inauguration. Assuming that's true, it's highly likely that Northam knew about the allegation before his own scandal broke.

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Read the link from iiandyiiii's post above.

Not picking on you, but her statement is important enough that it should totally upend the conversation. It's very difficult to square her statement with any sort of shenanigans on Northam's or Stoney's or anyone else's part.

What do you mean? I've read her statement. If your point is that we shouldn't talk about who fed her social media post (and any corroborating details) to the conservative website and should, instead, take in her story about the underlying events, that's fine (and certainly more important).

But the "shenanigans" that I think are being alleged is not that Northam or Stoney fabricated the story, but that they played a role in circulating the allegation to the press and getting it published. (By circulating the social media post in which she laments Fairfax's anticipated promotion and encouraging them to link that to him).

I don't feel "picked on", I just don't know what you're objecting to my doing.

Last edited by Falchion; 02-06-2019 at 03:22 PM.
  #82  
Old 02-06-2019, 03:27 PM
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The accuser, Vanessa Tyson, has put out a statement through her lawyers: https://twitter.com/sarahmccammon/st...23842745647104

It strikes me as credible (and horrifying).
Yeah, that sounds credible. I suspect this will result in more women coming forward. Luckily, she’s accusing a Democrat, so evil right-wingers won’t destroy her life the way they did for Dr. Ford.
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Old 02-06-2019, 03:28 PM
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It seems incredibly unlikely that a post like hers, in a context like this past weekend, wouldn't come to the attention of the media and the political world at large. Shenanigans unnecessary.
  #84  
Old 02-06-2019, 03:43 PM
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Offtopic, but factual falsehoods always bear correction.

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Originally Posted by BigT View Post
With Kavenaugh, we had Ford's account of the rape being told years before when his politics were not relevant, so we know it wasn't a political hitjob.
Untrue. Ford first made the claims in 2012, which is when Kavanaugh was first being discussed as likely SCOTUS nominee in the event of a Romney win. IOW, exactly as soon as his politics became relevant.

https://www.cnn.com/2012/09/30/polit...ist/index.html
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-u...83I18U20120419
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2.../holding-court

Quote:
There was that document that suddenly existed that had a lot of women saying he had not done anything, which was bizarre, and came out too quickly to have been gathered after the accusation was made public.
The process by which 65 women that knew him rushed to Kavanaugh's defense was widely reported at the time: friend-of-a-freind via phone, email, and facebook.

https://apnews.com/1f7e47de5ce340f7b4cab8e92ef91cf0
https://www.weeklystandard.com/virgi...rett-kavanaugh
https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/6...anaugh-defense


If you were unaware of these well-reported facts, you may wish to consider broadening your news sources

Last edited by furt; 02-06-2019 at 03:45 PM.
  #85  
Old 02-06-2019, 03:54 PM
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Ford first made the claims in 2012, which is when Kavanaugh was first being discussed as likely SCOTUS nominee in the event of a Romney win. IOW, exactly as soon as his politics became relevant.
You mean “exactly as soon as his name began showing up in national news articles.”

If someone tried to rape me and then 30 years later his name started showing up in national news articles I would probably want to talk about it.
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  #86  
Old 02-06-2019, 04:16 PM
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If someone tried to rape me and then 30 years later his name started showing up in national news articles I would probably want to talk about it.
And if I was making the affirmative claim that Ford's motives were political, that would be a meaningful point. Instead, I was merely pointing out the inaccuracy of BigT's claim that such motives were impossible.

Last edited by furt; 02-06-2019 at 04:16 PM.
  #87  
Old 02-06-2019, 05:02 PM
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And if I was making the affirmative claim that Ford's motives were political, that would be a meaningful point. Instead, I was merely pointing out the inaccuracy of BigT's claim that such motives were impossible.
Fair point, I withdraw!
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According to the Anti-Defamation League, "In 2018, domestic extremists killed at least 50 people in the US, a sharp increase from the 37 extremist-related murders documented in 2017....every single extremist killing — from Pittsburgh to Parkland — had a link to right-wing extremism."
  #88  
Old 02-06-2019, 06:42 PM
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I’m going to go out on a limb here and say that a thorough investigation should happen before any decisions are made about possible resignations.
  #89  
Old 02-06-2019, 07:45 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DSeid View Post
Any bets on whether there's been any dirt dug up on him? Kirk Cox (R) apparently is the Speaker of the House of Delegates.
Well I wouldn't have bet he'd have offered up his own dirt!

But owning up to it on his own with a clear acknowledgement of having been ignorant that early in life, not realizing that dressing as a favorite band would offend others because he had, up to then been a product of a still functionally segregated community and unknowing, and have learned much since ... that more than survivable, it can be used as an object lesson for why that functional segregation, which still exists today in much of our country, is a problem that results in racist behaviors by those who do not even know that what they are doing is as hurtful and harmful as it is.

Not sure if Northam could have made that same sale (and too late now). Herring was 19 at the time. Northam was 26. We excuse more ignorance and stupid mistakes at 19 than at 26.
  #90  
Old 02-06-2019, 08:28 PM
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Originally Posted by iiandyiiii View Post
The accuser, Vanessa Tyson, has put out a statement through her lawyers: https://twitter.com/sarahmccammon/st...23842745647104

It strikes me as credible (and horrifying).
I know that we have done this before, but what about the story makes it "credible"? The fact that it is possible?

I've said this before, I know, but you seem to suggest that if an accuser's story does not violate some law of physics, then it is credible. What in your mind would be a detail in that narration that would make her story incredible?

I'm sure that any poster in this thread could write a piece of fiction that would be just as credible and possibly more horrifying than that story. It doesn't make it true.

Further, I'm not suggesting that her story is false. I'm just saying (again) that there is no way of knowing if that is true or if Fairfax's denial is true.
  #91  
Old 02-06-2019, 08:30 PM
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Quick question: Did Herring come out with this "disclosure" on his own out of a sense of honesty or was it ready to be revealed by someone?
  #92  
Old 02-06-2019, 08:38 PM
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There is no reporting that it was about to be revealed by someone so to our knowledge on his own. Now "out of a sense of honestly" or out of good sense that a picture of that is if not probable at least possible so likely would come out at some point and better to rip the scab off now? I'd guess the latter but I'm a cynic. Not that cynicism isn't usually justified though.
  #93  
Old 02-07-2019, 05:54 AM
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Quick question: Did Herring come out with this "disclosure" on his own out of a sense of honesty or was it ready to be revealed by someone?
According to this AP piece: "The attorney general issued the statement after rumors of a blackface photo of Herring had circulated at the Capitol for a day or more."
  #94  
Old 02-07-2019, 08:10 AM
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Ms. Tyson informed Rep. Bobby Scott of her allegations over a year ago.
Quote:
In a statement given to ABC News on Wednesday, Scott wrote, "Allegations of sexual assault need to be taken seriously. I have known Professor Tyson for approximately a decade and she is a friend. She deserves the opportunity to have her story heard.”
  #95  
Old 02-07-2019, 10:14 AM
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Originally Posted by UltraVires View Post
I know that we have done this before, but what about the story makes it "credible"? The fact that it is possible?

I've said this before, I know, but you seem to suggest that if an accuser's story does not violate some law of physics, then it is credible. What in your mind would be a detail in that narration that would make her story incredible?

I'm sure that any poster in this thread could write a piece of fiction that would be just as credible and possibly more horrifying than that story. It doesn't make it true.

Further, I'm not suggesting that her story is false. I'm just saying (again) that there is no way of knowing if that is true or if Fairfax's denial is true.
Things that make the story credible:

1. Specific details are more credible than vague references.
2. The fact that the encounter was not denied.
3. The fact that the encounter was shared with another party well before it was known to the general public.
4. It does not appear that Tyson has a habit of making allegations.
5. It does not appear that Tyson will benefit from the sharing of the story.
6. The potential fallout that Tyson could suffer if it can be proved that the story is false.

None of these items make the story true but they do make it more credible.
  #96  
Old 02-07-2019, 10:51 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nars Glinley View Post
Things that make the story credible:

1. Specific details are more credible than vague references.
2. The fact that the encounter was not denied.
3. The fact that the encounter was shared with another party well before it was known to the general public.
4. It does not appear that Tyson has a habit of making allegations.
5. It does not appear that Tyson will benefit from the sharing of the story.
6. The potential fallout that Tyson could suffer if it can be proved that the story is false.

None of these items make the story true but they do make it more credible.
In addition to those i would add (I acknowledge that the 2nd and 3rd these are somewhat troubling in terms of what they say about legitimate accusations from more marginal victims, but I'll list them anyway) :
  • Same political party as the accused (making it less likely to be a political hit job)
  • Education level and stable employment level of accuser (less likely to be crazy)
  • Income level of accuser (less likely to be money grab)
__________________
According to the Anti-Defamation League, "In 2018, domestic extremists killed at least 50 people in the US, a sharp increase from the 37 extremist-related murders documented in 2017....every single extremist killing — from Pittsburgh to Parkland — had a link to right-wing extremism."
  #97  
Old 02-07-2019, 11:06 AM
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Originally Posted by Evil Economist View Post
In addition to those i would add (I acknowledge that the 2nd and 3rd these are somewhat troubling in terms of what they say about legitimate accusations from more marginal victims, but I'll list them anyway) :
  • Same political party as the accused (making it less likely to be a political hit job)
  • Education level and stable employment level of accuser (less likely to be crazy)
  • Income level of accuser (less likely to be money grab)
My complete and total WAG based upon nothing but observing human behavior is that #3 follows a bell curve.
  #98  
Old 02-07-2019, 03:37 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nars Glinley View Post
Things that make the story credible:

1. Specific details are more credible than vague references.
2. The fact that the encounter was not denied.
3. The fact that the encounter was shared with another party well before it was known to the general public.
4. It does not appear that Tyson has a habit of making allegations.
5. It does not appear that Tyson will benefit from the sharing of the story.
6. The potential fallout that Tyson could suffer if it can be proved that the story is false.

None of these items make the story true but they do make it more credible.
I'll comment briefly on each point. Again, I have no opinion of the veracity of her accusation, but in general:

1. I disagree. Every liar I know gives specific details. The bigger the liar, the more outlandish. Further, if she has created a false memory, these details are created along with it. I don't see the relevance of this at all one way or the other.

2. Not denied? He has denied it. He contends it was a consensual encounter. I'm not sure how that lends credibility to her story. Under this point, every date rape accusation would have greater credibility by default than a stranger rape accusation.

3. I agree. Contemporaneous allegations are probative. So much so that they used to be required by law in many states. Her accusations were not contemporaneous, but I would agree that the closer made in time to the event is probative evidence. In this case, I am unaware of when she first made the allegation.

4. Meh. The habit of making allegations would definitely be a negative for her credibility, but the lack thereof doesn't really point me in one direction or the other. Does every woman get one freebie for imprisoning a man?

5. Disputed. If this was 1975, I would agree. Today, she will be seen as a hero in some communities for her "courage" and "bravery" in "disclosing" her ordeal.

6. There is no such danger. Her allegations cannot be proven false anymore than they can be proven true. Some have mentioned the possibility of a diary or a journal entry, but such a thing is an investigator's dream. It never happens. Even if it did, that would be the first thing used for corroboration in a couple of hours. It doesn't require a lengthy investigation.

---

As an aside, and I have experience in these cases, what seems to happen in a mismatch of expectations and poor communications. For example (and I'm not saying that it happened it this case), two people casually know each other. They find themselves in a situation where (almost invariably) alcohol is involved and they are in a setting where they will be undisturbed if they have sex (out of town, spouse/roommate is away, kids are a grandparents, etc).

After a few drinks kick in, they start flirting. One party has in mind that this will be a start of a beautiful relationship. The other party likes the other person well enough, but sees this as simply a one night stand.

Upon the entry of the house, apartment, or hotel room, one party is thinking that this will be a slow evening with a few drinks, soft music, and gentle love making, and tomorrow and next week they will keep seeing each other. The other party wants his dick sucked and becomes crude or begins foreplay in a manner that the other party does not desire.

At this instance, rarely does the woman say positively no and leave. She may suggest that they slow down, and the guy usually does back off, having (another) drink and listening to music. But it is obvious that he is just buying time and she sees that. But she feels somehow that she has to go through with sex.

So she does and at least to her, it was degrading. It was too rough, it was too quick, it was clear that she was just used for gratification. He rushes her out the door about 11 seconds after ejaculation. She leaves feeling horrified and very upset at the man.

After a while, she will read literature, talk to her friends and come to the conclusion that she did not want that, and that the man knew it, and through the help of these organizations, allege that it was a sexual assault when an honest assessment of the events show that it was not.

And unless we have a recording of these events, we can never find out what actually happened.
  #99  
Old 02-07-2019, 03:40 PM
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Do you honestly believe that such a scenario is common? Or likely? Because it looks like utter twaddle.
  #100  
Old 02-07-2019, 03:55 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by UltraVires View Post
I'll comment briefly on each point. Again, I have no opinion of the veracity of her accusation, but in general:

1. I disagree. Every liar I know gives specific details. The bigger the liar, the more outlandish. Further, if she has created a false memory, these details are created along with it. I don't see the relevance of this at all one way or the other.

2. Not denied? He has denied it. He contends it was a consensual encounter. I'm not sure how that lends credibility to her story. Under this point, every date rape accusation would have greater credibility by default than a stranger rape accusation.

3. I agree. Contemporaneous allegations are probative. So much so that they used to be required by law in many states. Her accusations were not contemporaneous, but I would agree that the closer made in time to the event is probative evidence. In this case, I am unaware of when she first made the allegation.

4. Meh. The habit of making allegations would definitely be a negative for her credibility, but the lack thereof doesn't really point me in one direction or the other. Does every woman get one freebie for imprisoning a man?

5. Disputed. If this was 1975, I would agree. Today, she will be seen as a hero in some communities for her "courage" and "bravery" in "disclosing" her ordeal.

6. There is no such danger. Her allegations cannot be proven false anymore than they can be proven true. Some have mentioned the possibility of a diary or a journal entry, but such a thing is an investigator's dream. It never happens. Even if it did, that would be the first thing used for corroboration in a couple of hours. It doesn't require a lengthy investigation.

---

As an aside, and I have experience in these cases, what seems to happen in a mismatch of expectations and poor communications. For example (and I'm not saying that it happened it this case), two people casually know each other. They find themselves in a situation where (almost invariably) alcohol is involved and they are in a setting where they will be undisturbed if they have sex (out of town, spouse/roommate is away, kids are a grandparents, etc).

After a few drinks kick in, they start flirting. One party has in mind that this will be a start of a beautiful relationship. The other party likes the other person well enough, but sees this as simply a one night stand.

Upon the entry of the house, apartment, or hotel room, one party is thinking that this will be a slow evening with a few drinks, soft music, and gentle love making, and tomorrow and next week they will keep seeing each other. The other party wants his dick sucked and becomes crude or begins foreplay in a manner that the other party does not desire.

At this instance, rarely does the woman say positively no and leave. She may suggest that they slow down, and the guy usually does back off, having (another) drink and listening to music. But it is obvious that he is just buying time and she sees that. But she feels somehow that she has to go through with sex.

So she does and at least to her, it was degrading. It was too rough, it was too quick, it was clear that she was just used for gratification. He rushes her out the door about 11 seconds after ejaculation. She leaves feeling horrified and very upset at the man.

After a while, she will read literature, talk to her friends and come to the conclusion that she did not want that, and that the man knew it, and through the help of these organizations, allege that it was a sexual assault when an honest assessment of the events show that it was not.

And unless we have a recording of these events, we can never find out what actually happened.
You know, I actually was willing to give the Fairfax side more benefit of the doubt.

Then I read this.

Now, I'm convinced he needs to go.
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