#1  
Old 10-12-2017, 12:42 PM
Aufgeblassen Aufgeblassen is offline
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How Is Your 401K Doing?

Mine has been on a tear since day after Election Day 2016!!!

Up 22.48% this year so far (w/NO contribution added). Thank you, Mr. Trump!
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  #2  
Old 10-12-2017, 12:55 PM
Colibri Colibri is offline
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Since the OP is seeking person experiences, let's move this to IMHO.

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  #3  
Old 10-12-2017, 01:07 PM
Aufgeblassen Aufgeblassen is offline
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By all means!
  #4  
Old 10-12-2017, 01:15 PM
Velocity Velocity is online now
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I was wondering if others were having the same. Mine used to creep up gradually for the past six years; but since the beginning of this year it's been absolutely roaring upwards at around 30% growth (contributions included), very unusual.
  #5  
Old 10-12-2017, 01:18 PM
BeepKillBeep BeepKillBeep is offline
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Originally Posted by Aufgeblassen View Post
Mine has been on a tear since day after Election Day 2016!!!

Up 22.48% this year so far (w/NO contribution added). Thank you, Mr. Trump!
Pretty sure you mean thanks Obama.

Sent from my SM-G930W8 using Tapatalk
  #6  
Old 10-12-2017, 01:19 PM
Voyager Voyager is offline
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Mine's been on a tear since election day 2012.
Of course it was on a tear right up to 2008 also.
  #7  
Old 10-12-2017, 01:20 PM
Ludovic Ludovic is online now
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Pretty sure you mean thanks Obama.
To be fair, several percent of that is probably in expectation of yuge tax cuts and deregulation which may or may not occur in the first case and may or may not to lead to profits in the second case.

Last edited by Ludovic; 10-12-2017 at 01:21 PM.
  #8  
Old 10-12-2017, 01:29 PM
Iggy Iggy is offline
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No 401K, but other investment accounts have been doing surprisingly well.

I help manage a small charitable trust and October is the time of year we re-balance the investments and make decisions about how big the charitable outlay we can support for the coming year. Looking like will be a nearly 10% increase on the outlay this year which is one of the largest year over year jumps we've had since the founding of the trust about 25 years ago.
  #9  
Old 10-12-2017, 01:45 PM
Velocity Velocity is online now
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What I'm concerned about is a potential big crash next year that could wipe much of the gains out.
  #10  
Old 10-12-2017, 01:51 PM
Dewey Finn Dewey Finn is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BeepKillBeep View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by Aufgeblassen View Post
Mine has been on a tear since day after Election Day 2016!!!

Up 22.48% this year so far (w/NO contribution added). Thank you, Mr. Trump!
Pretty sure you mean thanks Obama.

Sent from my SM-G930W8 using Tapatalk
I heard someone on the radio talking about the question of who gets credit or blame for the economy. He pointed out that making changes to it (given it's a seventeen-billion-dollar economy) is a little like trying to steer an aircraft carrier; you can't change direction on a dime.

But, yes, my investments are at an all-time high right now.
  #11  
Old 10-12-2017, 02:00 PM
Velocity Velocity is online now
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Originally Posted by Dewey Finn View Post
I heard someone on the radio talking about the question of who gets credit or blame for the economy. He pointed out that making changes to it (given it's a seventeen-billion-dollar economy) is a little like trying to steer an aircraft carrier; you can't change direction on a dime.

But, yes, my investments are at an all-time high right now.
17 Trillions, not billions, but yeah.


Unfortunately, the timing of the election cycles (4 or 8 year presidencies) often means that the guy who steers the aircraft carrier out of depression into prosperity gets blamed during all the years that there was depression, and once the carrier is actually headed in the direction of prosperity, the next POTUS gets the credit.

If that POTUS then wrecks the aircraft carrier, it might go back into the direction of recession........but not until the NEXT president has taken office!

In other words, the 4-year terms of the presidency are perfectly timed so that a president can harvest unfair blame or credit.
  #12  
Old 10-12-2017, 02:04 PM
Dewey Finn Dewey Finn is offline
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Sorry. Yes, trillions.
  #13  
Old 10-12-2017, 02:07 PM
Chefguy Chefguy is offline
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Depleting nicely, thank you, as we have been drawing down on it for a few years now.
  #14  
Old 10-12-2017, 02:09 PM
TimeWinder TimeWinder is offline
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Originally Posted by Velocity View Post
What I'm concerned about is a potential big crash next year that could wipe much of the gains out.
Yep. Given the actual deranged behavior currently coming from the White House and Congress, uncertainty about virtually everything (war, Russians, impeachment, inability to produce law, alt-right activity, etc.), I don't understand how it's been doing so well this far. I expect the crash will be soon and hard, and have been taking gains out of the market in anticipation of it.
  #15  
Old 10-12-2017, 02:10 PM
FairyChatMom FairyChatMom is offline
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Originally Posted by Velocity View Post
What I'm concerned about is a potential big crash next year that could wipe much of the gains out.
This is what's worrying me. In my post-retirement job, I've managed to sock away some fun money for when I retire for reals, and while it's been doing well, it's mostly in very conservative funds. Still, I worry about losing much of it. I plan to work about another year, so we shall see...
  #16  
Old 10-12-2017, 02:14 PM
BeepKillBeep BeepKillBeep is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dewey Finn View Post
I heard someone on the radio talking about the question of who gets credit or blame for the economy. He pointed out that making changes to it (given it's a seventeen-billion-dollar economy) is a little like trying to steer an aircraft carrier; you can't change direction on a dime.

But, yes, my investments are at an all-time high right now.
What I've generally heard is that the Trump economy starts in October. So we'll see what happens. Of course, I'm not actually all that convinced that the president (Trump or otherwise) has that much of an impact barring special circumstances.
  #17  
Old 10-12-2017, 02:53 PM
4d3fect 4d3fect is offline
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Mine lost a good third of its market value in 2008ish.

Up a good bit recently but I've been balancing it out (less stock index funds, more bonds) in anticipation of retiring about 10 years out and future market corrections.

Blaming/crediting the guy on the hill for market conditions is misinformed and not useful.

Who knows? One good EMP/zombie apocalypse type event and all this would be rendered useless anyway.
  #18  
Old 10-12-2017, 03:04 PM
jasg jasg is online now
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Does anyone smell any irrational exuberance?
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  #19  
Old 10-12-2017, 03:15 PM
TriPolar TriPolar is online now
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Does anyone smell any irrational exuberance?
I don't think it's irrational, the stock market has been a on a steady climb for years. You could lose all the past year's gains in a simple correction, but if you've had money in for a while then you can feel pretty good that you won't lose too much. Something catastrophic could happen at any time. Some may feel we're closer to such circumstances than we should be, but there isn't much to do about that with retirement savings.

However, I do think it would be irrational to expect these kinds of returns to continue for very long.
  #20  
Old 10-12-2017, 03:42 PM
Hampshire Hampshire is online now
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I suppose if you feel certain a crash is looming around the corner you could slide all your money into bond funds and wait for the drop. Problem is no one knows when the drop will occur, how it will occur (all at once or in downward up/down steps), when the bottom has been reached, and how long it will stay there. And of course if the market keeps going up for another year before the drop you've missed out on all those gains.
I'll just probably stay pat and play the long game with the historical booms and crashes with the booms always coming back stronger than the crashes.
  #21  
Old 10-12-2017, 04:26 PM
Voyager Voyager is offline
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Originally Posted by Hampshire View Post
I suppose if you feel certain a crash is looming around the corner you could slide all your money into bond funds and wait for the drop. Problem is no one knows when the drop will occur, how it will occur (all at once or in downward up/down steps), when the bottom has been reached, and how long it will stay there. And of course if the market keeps going up for another year before the drop you've missed out on all those gains.
I'll just probably stay pat and play the long game with the historical booms and crashes with the booms always coming back stronger than the crashes.
Depends on when you need the money. If not for a while, crashes are excellent buying opportunities - as long as you have a job that is.

I've moved a lot of my gains into more stable dividend stocks. They'll go down, but as long as they produce cash I don't care. And of course you lose out on some gains - it is impossible to time the market, and silly to try. And of course you diversify.
  #22  
Old 10-12-2017, 04:29 PM
Voyager Voyager is offline
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Originally Posted by BeepKillBeep View Post
What I've generally heard is that the Trump economy starts in October. So we'll see what happens. Of course, I'm not actually all that convinced that the president (Trump or otherwise) has that much of an impact barring special circumstances.
Well, I think it is possible to argue that the Bush deregulation and unwillingness to do anything about what was clearly looking like a housing bubble driven by shady Wall Street practices contributed to the depth of the crash. Plus he was unlucky enough to still be in office when it happened.
  #23  
Old 10-12-2017, 07:16 PM
bobot bobot is offline
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Originally Posted by Aufgeblassen View Post
... Thank you, Mr. Trump!
Said all the marks that thought Trump would make them rich. Keep your eye on the long game. (Unless you're rich already, then I guess Trump The Elite is your guy after all.)
  #24  
Old 10-13-2017, 07:21 AM
spifflog spifflog is offline
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Well, I think it is possible to argue that the Bush deregulation and unwillingness to do anything about what was clearly looking like a housing bubble driven by shady Wall Street practices contributed to the depth of the crash. Plus he was unlucky enough to still be in office when it happened.
I'd argue you left Congress of the list. The Congress that forced Fanny Mae and Freddie Mac to make loans to low income folks that they knew weren't good lending risks.
  #25  
Old 10-13-2017, 07:55 AM
spifflog spifflog is offline
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More to the point, American workers and American business drive the American economy, not the President. Some times it's luck, sometimes it's timing, but largely, the President pay little part in the market as far as I can see.


If the market was tanking, Dems would blame Trump and Republicans would blame Obama. Or vice versa.
  #26  
Old 10-13-2017, 08:47 AM
Bill Door Bill Door is online now
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I have to say mine is doing pretty well, mainly due to the fact that the international stock index I'm in is beating hell out of the US stock market. If you're interested look at VTIAX (Vanguard Total International Stock Market Index) vs VTSAX (Vanguard Total Stock Market Index). The US index is down 50% relative to the global economy. Trump can't even beat the Europeans. Sad!
  #27  
Old 10-13-2017, 10:08 AM
jasg jasg is online now
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I have to say mine is doing pretty well, mainly due to the fact that the international stock index I'm in is beating hell out of the US stock market. If you're interested look at VTIAX (Vanguard Total International Stock Market Index) vs VTSAX (Vanguard Total Stock Market Index). The US index is down 50% relative to the global economy. Trump can't even beat the Europeans. Sad!
Me too - the bulk of my 401k is it three index funds - VITSX, VTSNX and VBTIX (even lower cost institutional versions of the funds you mention).

As far as exuberance goes, my tracking spreadsheet is looking a lot like the late '90s and 2006. So, I expect my market accounts to drop sometime in the future, but I have diversified and am living off some stable value funds. My plan is to do what I did in 2000 and 2008 - sit tight and hold on.
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  #28  
Old 10-13-2017, 12:07 PM
Dangerosa Dangerosa is offline
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It is beginning to feel like Rockefellers advice from the shoeshine boy....I think I'll go move a little money.
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  #29  
Old 10-13-2017, 12:24 PM
Dangerosa Dangerosa is offline
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Moved, what is left is in dividend stocks, some in the Vanguards S&P index fund, and the rest in handpicked stocks (mostly dividend). There is bond funds, and utilities EFTs and cash and international funds all in there too, but I dumped a stock mutual fund that wasn't great and higher risk. And I had to dump my Amazon stock for conflict of interest reasons a few months back - so I'm set to invest when it tanks.

(None of this is the 401k - thats a whole different portfolio that is sit and let ride. Nor is any of it for the kids college - with them the ages they are, that's all in bond funds).
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  #30  
Old 10-13-2017, 12:29 PM
Dangerosa Dangerosa is offline
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The shoeshine boy story: http://howtobuystocks.blogspot.com/2...hine-boys.html (its sometimes Joe Kennedy).

Also:

“Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful”

― Warren Buffett
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  #31  
Old 10-13-2017, 03:15 PM
Voyager Voyager is offline
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Originally Posted by spifflog View Post
I'd argue you left Congress of the list. The Congress that forced Fanny Mae and Freddie Mac to make loans to low income folks that they knew weren't good lending risks.
Cite? Because Congress forced banks to not discriminate, not to make bad loans. Banks and non-banks aggressively pursued bad credit risks, for reasons which are clear to anyone who has looked at the causes of the crash.

Now, Congress supporting deregulation is indeed a cause, so I'm happy to add Congress to the list.
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