Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #51  
Old 06-07-2017, 11:12 PM
GIGObuster's Avatar
GIGObuster is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: Arizona
Posts: 29,314
Quote:
Originally Posted by Clothahump View Post
The problem is that we need a western wall, not just a southern wall. Libs are flooding into Texas from California, and they're gonna vote in Texas with the same stupidity that screwed California up.


I bet Texas would like that kind of stumble..

http://www.sacbee.com/news/business/...e83780667.html
Quote:
Michael said he thinks the state’s economy is still solid, “but I understand the warnings. … We’re connected to the global and national economy and there are risks there.”

For the time being, however, California’s economic growth has been undeniably strong when compared with the rest of the country. Last year California’s economy grew by 4.1 percent when adjusted for inflation, Asmundson said. The U.S. economy grew at a 2.4 percent rate.

“We’re doing a heck of a lot better than Texas,” Thornberg said, citing the state’s sometime rival for jobs.

As for the global rankings, the overall U.S. economy was No. 1 last year at $17.95 trillion. China was No. 2 at $10.98 trillion, followed by Japan, Germany and the United Kingdom.

California was next at $2.46 trillion. France dropped to No. 7, followed by India and Italy.

Brazil, gripped by a deep recession, tumbled all the way to 10th.
  #52  
Old 06-07-2017, 11:41 PM
GIGObuster's Avatar
GIGObuster is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: Arizona
Posts: 29,314
Quote:
Originally Posted by foolsguinea View Post
I don't buy the demographic tide argument. If the other side can see it coming, they can prepare for it. Most movement conservatives have not in fact chosen to appeal to latino voters. That doesn't mean they'll take defeat lying down. Apparently what's important to many conservatives is to exclude, to disenfranchise, and to remove latinos; that is a doable thing. War is the continuation of politics by other means.
Thing is that I expected that Texas would become blue eventually, but in a couple of decades. Unfortunately, for the Republicans, they decided to go full Pete Wilson and one should remember that while Wilson did win with a hateful agenda it was only a temporary gain. In less than a generation the Republicans lost California thanks in big part to that hate.

http://www.unz.com/runz/how-the-repu...alifornia-wsj/
Quote:
a populist and somewhat xenophobic crusade that eventually gave rise to Proposition 187, a 1994 ballot initiative. This controversial measure was intended to immediately expel some 300,000 young immigrant children — many of them American-born citizens — from California public schools if their parents lacked legal documentation.

Gov. Wilson, in an uphill re-election race against the terrible economic tide, had originally refused to support this extremist proposal and even tried to prevent it from reaching the ballot. But observing its enormous popularity, he ultimately chose to use it as the centerpiece of his gubernatorial campaign. Mr. Wilson spent millions on television spots showing gritty images of Mexicans dashing across the border, provoking the crudest stereotypes of dark-skinned hordes swarming into California for welfare and crime. With an electorate mired in recession and 85% white, Mr. Wilson’s wedge-issue strategy carried him to a landslide victory.

Proposition 187 was quickly ruled unconstitutional, and the political impact of Mr. Wilson’s harsh television commercials might soon have faded. But his political success inspired the newly elected Republican Congress to spend much of 1995 and 1996 repeatedly attacking the rights and benefits of both legal and illegal immigrants. For immigrants, the only means of defense was naturalization and registration, and they did both in unprecedented numbers, roughly doubling California’s Latino vote between 1992 and 1998. Most of these new voters regarded both Mr. Wilson and his Republican Party as their mortal foes.
What I see is that a lot of Hispanics in Texas were like Californians, willing to vote for republicans in very significant numbers. But, Republicans in power can not help but to use hate to win in the short term. Regardless if the long term is deadly to them thanks to the way they are winning in the short run.

It is like with an issue like climate change. The dumb "victories" the Republicans in power are claiming with their inaction on climate change will affect many in a generation of two. The difference with that is that the Republicans are actively now accelerating the change. What the Republicans in Texas are particularly doing now will turn Texas blue in less than a generation based on the dick moves that the Republican leaders made in California and the reaction they got, and not only from the Hispanics.

Last edited by GIGObuster; 06-07-2017 at 11:42 PM.
  #53  
Old 06-08-2017, 10:59 AM
Exapno Mapcase is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: NY but not NYC
Posts: 31,714
Quote:
Originally Posted by Clothahump View Post
The problem is that we need a western wall, not just a southern wall. Libs are flooding into Texas from California, and they're gonna vote in Texas with the same stupidity that screwed California up.
Wait: it's the California libs that almost pushed Dallas and Houston into bankruptcy? Is that why Houston's problems dated back to 2001? And that they got out of this jam by a move that would be illegal in California?

It's true that Californians used to move to Texas. It wasn't a flood, of course, but a trickle. But leave that aside. The important point is that the out-migration rate abruptly slowed after the libs took over. It made sense to leave California when the right was in charge; when Jerry Brown became governor the economic picture suddenly became bright. Out-migration was cut in half from 2012 to 2016. So don't worry about those libs. They aren't coming for you. I suspect that the migrants from California to Texas never were predominantly libs in the first place, but I don't live in your reality and I don't know what you consider libs. Our definitions are probably worlds apart.
  #54  
Old 06-15-2017, 09:49 AM
Hector_St_Clare is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Dec 2013
Posts: 3,664
Quote:
Originally Posted by AK84 View Post
There was a study posted on one of the threads after the Election which pointed out that the "demographic dividend" is unlikely to pan out since many second and third generation Latinos tend to consider themselves White.

And as Nate Silver pointed out, if White working class starts voting a group, then there is no combination of minority voters which can overcome that.
These are both very good points, but the other important consideration is that Latino fertility rates (as well as fertility rates in Latin America) are much lower than they used to be. The least fertile US jurisdiction, for example, isn't Rhode Island or Massachusetts, it's Puerto Rico, and Puerto Ricans in the mainland US are now less fertile than white people. Mexico now has a fertility rate just around replacement, and the estimates are that it will drop below the US fertility rate within a couple decades. All that means that the Latino share of the US population by, say, 2030 or 2040 is probably going to be smaller than we expected a decade ago.
  #55  
Old 08-13-2019, 11:21 AM
Elendil's Heir is offline
SDSAB
 
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: my Herkimer Battle Jitney
Posts: 86,235
Bumped.

Here's more on the topic: https://www.cnn.com/2019/08/13/polit...ins/index.html
  #56  
Old 08-13-2019, 01:01 PM
FlikTheBlue is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 1,843
I think 2020 is too early, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Texas go Democratic in 2024, especially if Trump wins in 2020. By that time I think enough Texans will be tired of the way Republicans govern now, and will be ready for a change. Unfortunately that would mean that we won’t get rid of our gerrymandered districts until after the 2030 census at the earliest. By that time I think Texas swinging blue would mean that the Republicans would have to fundamentally change their platform, because the party as is would never win national elections with a blue Texas.

Last edited by FlikTheBlue; 08-13-2019 at 01:03 PM.
Reply

Bookmarks

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is Off
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 02:23 PM.

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.7
Copyright ©2000 - 2019, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.

Send questions for Cecil Adams to: cecil@straightdope.com

Send comments about this website to: webmaster@straightdope.com

Terms of Use / Privacy Policy

Advertise on the Straight Dope!
(Your direct line to thousands of the smartest, hippest people on the planet, plus a few total dipsticks.)

Copyright © 2019 STM Reader, LLC.

 
Copyright © 2017