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#151
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Can you try to take this discussion a little more seriously please? This is just ridiculous. |
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#152
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Last edited by Starving Artist; 09-21-2012 at 01:31 PM. |
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#153
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Your back must be sore, because you just carried those goalposts a really, really long way.
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#154
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SA, when you saw Star Wars, were you concerned about all those spaceship fights happening in the inner cities?
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#155
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What year or years would you consider to be " a more civilized time" for America?
Last edited by Enderw24; 09-21-2012 at 02:03 PM. |
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#156
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It isn't. I should have also quoted this line about your "illustration:"
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Because at this point it's no longer clear what 48 Hours is supposed to illustrate. |
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#157
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You know what? Scratch that request. I get that you think because your childhood was idellic and peaceful, you can extrapolate that to everyone, like you've done time and time again in thread after thread including this one. And I get that if it weren't for those goddamned hippies with their long hippie hair and goddamned hippie music all liberalling up the place, we'd still be living in a black and white Leave it to Beaver world and it would be perfect, thankyouverymuch.
You want to live in your little bubble? Go ahead. The rest of adults will be making informed decisions using facts. |
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#158
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Because they're the ones who published those stats I posted a day or two ago. As Ender implies, you use examples to illustrate data. OK, maybe not if 'you' is Starving Artist, but that's how it's supposed to work. Because otherwise, it's "here's an example of something whose actual incidence rate is something I don't care about." |
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#159
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The risk you run if you see television as actually descriptive of reality is that you end up with a very skewed, distorted, myopic worldview that is at odds with the reality that most everyone else is familiar with. The First 48 is not reality. It only depicts homicide investigation and only for entertainment purposes. It does not tell anything about the nationwide prevalence of homicide.
Did you think that the crime rate went down because Law and Order was cancelled? But yeah, I like to think back on those halcyon days when my pa and I went down to the fishing hole every week, him whistling that same old tune he always whistled for 23 seconds. I had these two old favorite rocks that I liked to pick up and throw into the water. We didn't have any drug problem to worry about, and no black people causing us problems. Heck, even the drunks were more endearing than problematic. (For some reason, thinking about SA and this new information about how he gauges reality, I'm reminded of the original premise of the HBO show "Dream On".) |
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#160
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Why don't I hear this kind of equivocation when 60 Minutes does an expose on some evangelist or corporation, or when only one Tea Partier out of hundreds is filmed carrying a sign with a racist message, or when Republican politician says his goal is to block Obama and suddenly that applies to every Republican in the country? It's disingenuous at the very least to try to dodge the very real circumstances illuminated by shows such as The First 48 by claiming they don't encompass all aspects of life. The important thing is that it shows that a very real problem that a lot of people are unhappy about does indeed exist. And, having watched Robert Blake interviewed on TV last night, that's the name of that tune! |
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#161
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Or we can just dismiss this nonsense as a tu quoque, and admit that anecdotes don't equate data, even if there are enough anecdotes to fill an entire television season with scary stories. |
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#162
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#163
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Right: statistics aren't all of reality, they're just a fact-based depiction of what is happening at a broad societal level. And The First 48 isn't all of reality either, it's a factual depiction of one crime intended to keep you watching TV for an hour. If someone is well informed of the statistics, they can make informed statements about general trends at a national or state level. If someone gets his information from The First 48, he can say the facts don't reflect "reality" and that people are living in fear of repeat violent offenders because there are lots of those on The First 48.
Quoting again: Quote:
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Last edited by Marley23; 09-21-2012 at 03:27 PM. |
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#164
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But I agree with you about how people think, and there is a reason for it, which we teach in our behavioral economics class. If you plot the perception of the occurrence of certain events with their actual occurrence rates, you get a big disconnect. For instance, most people think the murder rate is higher than the suicide rate, while the exact opposite is true. The reason is that people judge probabilities based on the availability of information on the event. Suicides are seldom reported in the news, murders are frequently reported, so people think murders are more common. The same is true of all sorts of natural disasters. Many local papers run snippets about juicy crimes far, far away, so it is not surprising that people think these things are more common than they are. When I was in elementary school in the glory days of the late '50s, lots of parents thought the juvenile delinquents (who were covered a lot in movies and the press) were a scourge that would overwhelm decent society. |
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#165
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#166
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He did sound out of touch on a sensitive issue. But better than sounding out of touch on every issue... |
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#167
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Good God, it's like arguing with a bowl of pudding.
I'm not going to waste my time with addressing this silliness point by point; I'll take one bogus point among many and be done with it: Quote:
After that we can start looking at SA's plan for correcting this problem. I assume he has one, since he's kvetching about it to such a degree. And then finally, after that maybe we can figure out wt effing f any of this has to do with the national debt. Last edited by El_Kabong; 09-21-2012 at 04:40 PM. |
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#168
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#169
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Last edited by Really Not All That Bright; 09-21-2012 at 05:46 PM. |
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#170
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Well, we didn't do it alone. The Hell's Angels and the Communists did their bits as well. But we appreciate the sentiment. Hardly anyone ever actually thanks us.
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#171
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What Voyager said. I found an article to that effect, but he summarised rather neatly.
Also, I'm reminded of Being There. Ever thought of running for office Starving Artist? |
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#172
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Please note that in every case the "Best Year" occurred in the early sixties. Then note that , despite having fallen precipitously since its peak, a person is still roughly 172% more likely to be murdered than they were in the good old days - which, as we shall continue to see, are not a figment of my imagination after all. Next, note that if you are a woman you are 493% more likely to be raped today than in 1960. Next up is assault, where today you are 504% more likely to be violently attacked physically than you were in 1960. You are also 236% more likely to have your home broken into and some of your things stolen than you were in 1960. And you are about 224% more likely to have your car stolen than you were in 1960. So apart from murder, which has only nearly doubled, the other violent crime rates are the ones coming in around 500% higher! It's the non-violent categories of burglary and car theft that have only increased around 230%. Now take a look at the two graphs at the top right of this Wiki page. Note how the rate of every single category of violent and property crime skyrockets beginning in the late 1960's, with violent crime peaking in the early 90's and property crime peaking in 1980 and rebounding to almost the same level in 1990. Now, frankly I have no idea why crime rates have fallen like they have beginning in the 1990's. It might be due to three-strikes laws, mandatory sentencing, the bulk of the bad guys already in jail, who knows? But given the precipitous rise in every category of crime which the American public witnessed from the late sixties through the nineties, combined with rates today which are still roughly 2 to 5 times greater than they were during this country's more civilized and disciplined era, I think the American public's fear of crime is perfectly valid, and, given the information above, I doubt they would be much mollified by present day crime statistics. |
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#173
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#174
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Then we have 2010 with 14,748 murders out of a U.S. Population of 308,745,538. That is one American murdered out of every 20934. You thought you were making a good case for 1962 being half as murderous as big bad 2010, but simple mathematics reveals that your good old days were actually worse than 2010. The good old days is in fact a complete figment of your imagination (especially since you are white) Last edited by rogerbox; 09-23-2012 at 03:57 AM. |
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#176
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As for the ones that have risen significantly even on a per capita basis (rapes and assaults), I conjecture that a significant part of this increase is probably attributable to a lot larger percentage of such crimes being reported nowadays than they were back in 1960.
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#177
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#178
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At several points in the accompanying article it mentions crime rates indexed per hundred thousand, so, it being late and me freshly arrived home from a friend's birthday party where both beer and bourbon were at various times served, I utterly failed to pick up on the fact that the raw data had not been indexed per hundred thousand, which amusingly enough was my belief at the time. However, even I don't think, in the cold light of day, that there has ever been a time when the U.S. has been experiencing 15,000 murders per 100,000 citizens. Hopefully the message contained in the Wiki crime graphs I linked to still support my underlying thesis, but as I'm posting from an iPod right now I'll have to revisit them later. Again my apologies, and good catch, rogerbox. |
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#179
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Accepted, I've had many misunderstandings during late night postings too.
Considering there are VERY nearly twice as many Americans as in 1960 all the crimes would have to at least double in occurrances just to keep up. Murder did not, and I'm going to assume that rape got reported only a small percentage as often as they do now, because of decreased social stigma (but it's still a problem). In truth we'll never know what the true rate of rape was for those decades. |
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#180
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Also worth noting that many states had marital exemptions for rape. Funnily enough the Soviet Union was among the first countries to revoke them (wiki gives 1922 and 1960 as dates) and North Carolina one of the last US states to do so in 1993. Bit of a conundrum for a social conservative I suppose. Marital rape ought to be peachy and ending it is a feminist intrusion into a sacrament, but without its inclusion in rape figures we may be progressing as a species, despite liberal Hollywood's attempt to irrevocably destroy America.
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#181
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#182
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Hey there, how often does an SDMB avowed conservative actually apologize for being factually wrong? Less than 1% of their factual wrongness. I don't feel like hammering away at someone for doing the right thing.
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