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  #451  
Old 09-18-2019, 01:07 PM
Emily Litella is offline
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Okay, congratulate yourselves, you've beaten me down. I'm giving up on Bernie and I'll vote for Biden or Warren in the primary.
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  #452  
Old 09-18-2019, 01:20 PM
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Okay, congratulate yourselves, you've beaten me down. I'm giving up on Bernie and I'll vote for Biden or Warren in the primary.
I say vote for who you like in the primary. But vote for one of these guys or whoever wins the nomination, for sure, no matter what, in the general election. THAT is the key. If you like Sanders and feel he's the best candidate, then vote for him in the primary.
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  #453  
Old 09-18-2019, 05:46 PM
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Is it not clear to Bernie supporters by this point that he has zero chance of getting a majority of delegates? Amy Klobuchar has a better chance of becoming the nominee than he does. He might have the highest floor of any of the candidates, maybe even higher than Biden, but he has the lowest ceiling.

ETA: Nor is there any chance someone is going to tap him as a running mate. The bitterness this virtually certain snub may engender could be a problem; however, if the VP slot is filled by someone who is not a white man, it will hopefully be seen as churlish to make much of a stink about it.
I agree that it seems unlikely he will go into the convention with a delegate majority, but that doesn't really matter as far as the calculus of who to support in the primary.

If the majority of primary voters support some non-Bernie candidate, then it doesn't really matter who I vote for.

If the majority can't agree on a candidate, then there will be a brokered convention. Even if it is unlikely that such a convention would actually nominate Sanders, the more votes he gets, the more influence he will have over the selection of the nominee.

This logic, of course, is true for any candidate, unless they are falling into that single digit range where they won't be earning any delegates at all, and I think that's highly unlikely to happen to Bernie.

As an aside, I don't think it's actually that far-fetched that a brokered convention might select Sanders. Like if it's 40% Biden, 40% Warren, and 20% Bernie, aren't the Biden and Warren camps both likely to prefer Bernie over the other, or over the alternative of picking someone who didn't even run, or ran and lost badly?
  #454  
Old 09-18-2019, 06:05 PM
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Why would you think that?
  #455  
Old 09-18-2019, 06:51 PM
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Why would you think that?
According to the running Morning Consult polling, Bernie is now leading second choice among both Warren and Biden supporters. That's new on the Warren side, Harris was leading for a while.
https://morningconsult.com/2020-democratic-primary/

But the numbers are pretty close. I personally think the hate-on a significant number of Dems have for Sanders will cancel out that advantage.

Last edited by CarnalK; 09-18-2019 at 06:53 PM.
  #456  
Old 09-18-2019, 07:28 PM
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Yes, definitely.

ETA: And not only do they start with hate for him, they would be watching him get the nomination despite coming in third place with 20% of the vote. They (we) will go apeshit if that happens.

Last edited by SlackerInc; 09-18-2019 at 07:30 PM.
  #457  
Old 09-18-2019, 07:35 PM
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IF there is no winner on the first vote then every delegate, including the 16% of them who are the superdelegates (also called "automatic delegates"), are free to vote however they want. They have no obligation to follow the marching orders of the candidate they were pledged to.

The odds of those superdelegate political insiders deciding to put their support behind even an institutional friendly favorite who was third in the polling, let alone Sanders, is on the smaller side I would guess. If (in that hypothetical) everyone else stayed put the choice of the supers as a group (assuming that at least 2/3s decided to act in concert) would decide.

In that hypothetical it is very possible that enough of Sanders' delegates would move to Warren, along with enough of the supers deciding that the majority were behind a more progressive choice so going to Warren even if they personally preferred Biden, to push her over .... but Sanders? I don't think so.
  #458  
Old 09-18-2019, 07:52 PM
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If my son, the Bernie superfan, and a friend from TNS who is also super into Bernie, are any indication then Bernie’s delegates will not be positively inclined to Warren. Not that they love Biden, but they seem to have a particular animus for Warren.

I don’t believe polls about the second choices of primary voters are all that relevant here, by the way. Delegates are going to be made up of the most ardent supporters.

Last edited by SlackerInc; 09-18-2019 at 07:53 PM.
  #459  
Old Yesterday, 03:01 PM
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Besides, your "question" is just silly wishcasting. Of course his chance of winning the nomination isn't zero; he's in third place. And despite your wish to project your own pathological hatred of Bernie onto the Democratic electorate, his unfavorables are basically identical to Biden's (Warren actually looks slightly better than both of them by that measure, and nobody else is anywhere near the three of them for net favorability).

Obviously, things have been going in the wrong direction for Bernie the last couple months, but there's no law of nature that says that couldn't change. Warren's numbers can't get much better, unless she finds a way to appeal to folks other than middle-class whites. Nate Silver's article on the state of the race today was depressing reading for a Bernie supporter, but he still concludes "I have Sanders as the third most likely Democrat to win the nomination". It's far too soon to count him out.
  #460  
Old Yesterday, 05:18 PM
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Besides, your "question" is just silly wishcasting. Of course his chance of winning the nomination isn't zero; he's in third place. And despite your wish to project your own pathological hatred of Bernie onto the Democratic electorate, his unfavorables are basically identical to Biden's (Warren actually looks slightly better than both of them by that measure, and nobody else is anywhere near the three of them for net favorability).

Obviously, things have been going in the wrong direction for Bernie the last couple months, but there's no law of nature that says that couldn't change. Warren's numbers can't get much better, unless she finds a way to appeal to folks other than middle-class whites. Nate Silver's article on the state of the race today was depressing reading for a Bernie supporter, but he still concludes "I have Sanders as the third most likely Democrat to win the nomination". It's far too soon to count him out.

Sure, cling to hope. Why not? But the reality is that the nominee is either going to be Biden, or people are going to decide that Biden isnít the safest choice after all and will pick someone else they like and whom they consider safe enough. That will never be Bernie. Too many Democrats either dislike him, or at minimum think heís too risky, even if they do like him.
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