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Old 02-20-2019, 10:09 AM
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Will Trump be the 2020 Republican candidate?


From my research, it's only happened once before that the eligible incumbent was not their party's candidate and this was because of the civil war.

Will it happen again?
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Old 02-20-2019, 10:27 AM
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Yes, because the GOP doesn't have the guts to allow a true primary challenger.
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Old 02-20-2019, 10:28 AM
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Huh? Lincoln was indeed renominated, and victorious, in 1864. Franklin Pierce is the only elected President who wanted to be renominated but wasn't, in 1856. Four other sitting Presidents - Tyler, Fillmore, A. Johnson, Arthur - who had succeeded to the office were not nominated for full terms.

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Old 02-20-2019, 10:28 AM
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Of course he will. Trump is the GOP and the GOP is Trump. There has been absolutely nothing in the last 2+ years to indicate that NOW FINALLY the GOP will try to distance themselves.
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Old 02-20-2019, 10:34 AM
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Ask again after Robert Mueller finishes up his work.
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Old 02-20-2019, 10:42 AM
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Ask again after Robert Mueller finishes up his work.
Unless Robert Mueller himself can put Trump in jail, Cheetohead will be the GOP nominee. There will be the traditional wringing of hands and the bowing of heads, but when it is all over they will fall in line and kiss The Ass Of Power.
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Old 02-20-2019, 10:48 AM
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Huh? Lincoln was indeed renominated, and victorious, in 1864. Franklin Pierce is the only elected President who wanted to be renominated but wasn't, in 1856. Four other sitting Presidents - Tyler, Fillmore, A. Johnson, Arthur - who had succeeded to the office were not nominated for full terms.
LBJ also dropped out after winning the NH primary in 1968 by a much smaller margin than he had expected, and Bobbie Kennedy announcing he was entering the race.
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Old 02-20-2019, 11:02 AM
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Will it happen again?
I hope Trump won't be their candidate. I'm disappointed the Republicans haven't deposed him now that he's beyond the two-year mark.
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Old 02-20-2019, 11:45 AM
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Yes.

And he will get reelected.

Nothing that Mueller comes up with will touch thump until he is out of office (for the second time). I hate this, but I believe this is what will happen.
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Old 02-20-2019, 01:16 PM
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Huh? Lincoln was indeed renominated, and victorious, in 1864. Franklin Pierce is the only elected President who wanted to be renominated but wasn't, in 1856. Four other sitting Presidents - Tyler, Fillmore, A. Johnson, Arthur - who had succeeded to the office were not nominated for full terms.
Sorry... Yes it was Pierce and it was a slavery issue not the civil war. But slavery did lead to the civil war so that's where my head was.
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Old 02-20-2019, 03:32 PM
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Thread relocated from IMHO to Elections.
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Old 02-20-2019, 03:57 PM
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Yes. Absent an explosive revelation form the Mueller investigation or untimely death, it will be Trump.

And for me personally, I think that Bill Weld is probably the best person in American politics today and I'd happily vote for him in the primary if I could, but his net support probably amounts to about 0.2% of the total electorate.
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Old 02-20-2019, 04:10 PM
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To the OP: Yes, unless he dies or leaves office.

Historically, I'm wondering if there was ever a case of a President who served two terms and wanted to run for a third (before that became impossible in the 1950s), but was "discouraged" from doing so by his party's leaders? I'm pretty sure there is no case of a President before FDR openly campaigning for a third term (except Teddy Roosevelt, kind of).

Last edited by Thing Fish; 02-20-2019 at 04:11 PM.
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Old 02-20-2019, 06:49 PM
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No Republicans adore Trump because he is implementing the policies they want.
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Old 02-20-2019, 07:03 PM
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I'ma gonna swim against this tide.

No, I don't think Trump will be the nominee. I believe the Mueller report will be so damaging, Congress will remove him and he will end his days either in prison or in exile in Saudi Arabia, if he can manage to squirt out of the country before they take Air Force One away from him.

I personally think Senate Republicans are at this point waiting for the report to give them the cover they need to do what must be done. Don't need 'em all. Just 22.
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Old 02-20-2019, 07:27 PM
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I'm leaning towards yes. Mainly because of what appears to be fellow Russian backers in the GOP besides Trump. If he goes down, then so do the rest. Maybe they need another 4-year delay.
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Old 02-20-2019, 07:50 PM
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Yes. Absent an explosive revelation form the Mueller investigation or untimely death, it will be Trump.

And for me personally, I think that Bill Weld is probably the best person in American politics today and I'd happily vote for him in the primary if I could, but his net support probably amounts to about 0.2% of the total electorate.
Oh cheer up, he got almost 5% of the vote running for VP!

I doubt Trump can be beaten in the GOP primary, but I think a reasonable, qualified candidate could get 20-30% of the vote against him.
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Old 02-20-2019, 08:31 PM
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Trump has an 85% approval rating from the GOP. Why would he lose a primary?

Trump represents what a huge % of the GOP actually believe in. Conspiracy theories, neo-fascism and naked bigotry. Why would they abandon him?
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Old 02-20-2019, 08:33 PM
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Republicans are never going back to boring guys like Jeb Bush and Mitt Romney after the 2016 election where Trump's brash and confrontational style knocked all the mannered and practiced politicians off the stage like a bunch of bowling pins. The idea of anyone like Kasich gaining any kind of momentum in a primary is absurd. As I keep saying, it isn't just that Trump gets conservative policies enacted; it's that he generates "liberal tears" and endless outrage from the opposition, and that is just too, too much fun for Republicans to revel in. They are having a blast with this.

The Mueller investigation is the most overhyped thing since Y2K. At most, a few fall guys will go down, as fall guys are meant to do. I'd be happy to eat these words since nobody would enjoy watching Trump spectacularly crash and burn more than I, but I think the possibility is exceptionally remote.
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Old 02-20-2019, 10:59 PM
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Of course he will. Still, I'd love to see someone like Larry Hogan make a primary challenge (sorry Bill Weld, you're 20 years too late). Eventually Republicans are going to have to wake up from this Trump fever dream, and for the sake of our two-party system somebody needs to carry the torch for a sane GOP.
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Old 02-21-2019, 07:53 AM
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We're already past it being just "a few fall guys".
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Old 02-21-2019, 09:41 AM
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We're already past it being just "a few fall guys".
No, we are not. Anybody that isn't Trump is a "fall guy"...including his own family.
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Old 02-21-2019, 10:57 AM
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Trump will be the GOP candidate until/unless the GOP decides that Trump will certainly lose the general election and someone else has a better chance of winning. Unless something explosive comes out of the Mueller report (which I doubt) then Trump will have the best chance of winning among current Republican candidates.
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Old 02-21-2019, 10:58 AM
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Not even that. If he's still the President (not at all a safe assumption), then he'll be the nominee. They have no better idea.
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Old 02-21-2019, 11:14 AM
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They have no better idea.
There are many, many better candidates than Trump - Nikki Haley seems to be pre-eminent - but no one will stand against him. If there's even a sniff of impeachment Trump will be persuaded to resign for 'medical reasons' and PEnce will take over. Pence / Haley would be a powerful combination next year - Haley / Pence even more so.
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Old 02-21-2019, 11:18 AM
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Trump will dismiss anyone who tries to persuade him to resign, as long as he thinks there are any more deals to be made.
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Old 02-21-2019, 11:19 AM
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Historically, I'm wondering if there was ever a case of a President who served two terms and wanted to run for a third (before that became impossible in the 1950s), but was "discouraged" from doing so by his party's leaders? I'm pretty sure there is no case of a President before FDR openly campaigning for a third term (except Teddy Roosevelt, kind of).
Truman, arguably. He served more than half of the 1944-48 term after FDR died, was elected outright in 1948, and he was taken out in the primaries of 1952 with his popularity at a low point, mostly because of Korea and MacArthur.

The term limit rules didn't apply to him because he was president when they were ratified.
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Last edited by Bryan Ekers; 02-21-2019 at 11:20 AM.
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Old 02-21-2019, 12:41 PM
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Trump will be the GOP candidate until/unless the GOP decides that Trump will certainly lose the general election and someone else has a better chance of winning. Unless something explosive comes out of the Mueller report (which I doubt) then Trump will have the best chance of winning among current Republican candidates.
This. It's about getting elected. The worth of a candidate, policies that improve people's lives, principle, honesty, integrity-- all crap. GETTING ELECTED. That's what matters. If that means running the CFSG, the so be it. And if includes suppressing votes, tampering with ballots, redrawing voting districts, failing to count absentee ballots that are likely to be Democratic, fixing it so legitimately registered (Democratic) voters can't vote-- all of these things have been done and will continue to be done.
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Old 02-21-2019, 01:11 PM
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To the OP: Yes, unless he dies or leaves office.

Historically, I'm wondering if there was ever a case of a President who served two terms and wanted to run for a third (before that became impossible in the 1950s), but was "discouraged" from doing so by his party's leaders? I'm pretty sure there is no case of a President before FDR openly campaigning for a third term (except Teddy Roosevelt, kind of).
Ulysses S. Grant was a candidate for the 1880 Republican nomination, which would have given him a (nonconsecutive) third term if he had won the nomination and the election. As for the "discouraged by party leaders" part, some of them favored him and some of them didn't (partly because of the no-third-term tradition, partly because they simply preferred Blaine or Sherman*) with not enough of the former to prevail.

*James Garfield eventually got the nomination as a dark-horse compromise candidate chosen to break the deadlock between the main contenders.
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Last edited by Steve MB; 02-21-2019 at 01:14 PM.
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Old 02-22-2019, 09:30 AM
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Of course he will. Trump is the GOP and the GOP is Trump. There has been absolutely nothing in the last 2+ years to indicate that NOW FINALLY the GOP will try to distance themselves.
I'm going with this one, and have been continuously stunned since the 2016 election.
I for the life of me cannot understand how the GOP has just plain fallen to their knees at Trumps feet and seem to worship him. Lindsey Graham is the absolute best example of this. I swear, he stops by the White House every morning to lick Trump's boots clean.
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Old 02-22-2019, 10:04 AM
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I think it depends on the economy, and also, the timing. But Trump already has by some estimates a record pre-convention campaign donation haul. I don't think any candidate contemplating a primary challenge would contest him expecting to win; it would be strictly a matter of principle.

Keep your eye on Larry Hogan, Governor of Maryland.
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Old 02-22-2019, 10:31 AM
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There are many, many better candidates than Trump - Nikki Haley seems to be pre-eminent - but no one will stand against him. If there's even a sniff of impeachment Trump will be persuaded to resign for 'medical reasons' and PEnce will take over. Pence / Haley would be a powerful combination next year - Haley / Pence even more so.
Yeah, no. Nothing and no one could convince Trump to resign. The whole "Even if Trump gets elected, he'll decide it's too hard, then resign" claims 2 years ago were laughable. In his mind, he's never failed at anything, and resigning would be the most public and blatant admission of failure possible.
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Old 02-22-2019, 11:58 AM
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The only way Trump doesn't run is if he understands that he stands a high chance of defeat (better to leave on his own terms than to suffer an actual loss,) or he is too fatigued to go on (he's no spring chicken and the presidency is a grueling job.)
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Old 02-22-2019, 01:21 PM
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Ask again after Robert Mueller finishes up his work.
He still might run, but in a different sense of the word...
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Old 02-22-2019, 03:15 PM
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He still might run, but in a different sense of the word...
<snapping fingers and pointing at jasg...>

Good one.
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Old 02-22-2019, 03:28 PM
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Yeah, no. Nothing and no one could convince Trump to resign. The whole "Even if Trump gets elected, he'll decide it's too hard, then resign" claims 2 years ago were laughable. In his mind, he's never failed at anything, and resigning would be the most public and blatant admission of failure possible.
That, and the longer he remains President, the longer he can (probably) stay out of prison.
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Old 02-25-2019, 10:05 AM
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The only way Trump doesn't run is if he understands that he stands a high chance of defeat (better to leave on his own terms than to suffer an actual loss,) or he is too fatigued to go on (he's no spring chicken and the presidency is a grueling job.)
You're assuming he puts any effort into actually carrying out his duties.
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Old 02-25-2019, 02:53 PM
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I'ma gonna swim against this tide.

No, I don't think Trump will be the nominee. I believe the Mueller report will be so damaging, Congress will remove him and he will end his days either in prison or in exile in Saudi Arabia, if he can manage to squirt out of the country before they take Air Force One away from him.

I personally think Senate Republicans are at this point waiting for the report to give them the cover they need to do what must be done. Don't need 'em all. Just 22.
I hope you're correct.

I also think that should Trump survive to stand for election in 2020, he will be trounced by a historic margin. He caught lightning in a bottle once. It won't happen again, and he and his family and cronies have too much baggage for him to get elected again.
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