Straight Dope Message Board

[asahi]

Originally Posted by Snowboarder Bo

Well, Trump failed again, this time hilariously.Grace 1 is free to go; these aren't the droids they're looking for.That's right: Trump's diplomacy once again ceded the high ground to an adversary. I'm not sure, but I think he might be close to 100% with this move; is anyone keeping track?

Not to bring this up again -- okay, I'm bringing it up again...but this example demonstrates that Iran isn't just recklessly escalating for the purposes of dick measuring. They know what they're doing. They're playing hardball, and they're using counter-pressure, and it can work, provided they don't get carried away. 301

[XT]

Originally Posted by Euphonious Polemic

Not so much a win for Iran as it is simply a demonstration that the United States is becoming increasingly irrelevant on the world stage. Britain and Iran negotiated, Britain made a concession for internal political reasons, and the wishes of the United States were simply ignored.

While other countries enter into trade agreements, diplomatic discussions and other things that countries with actual functioning governments do, the US will just continue to ramble around from one crazy presidential tweet to the next, and be ignored.

The US is now the crazy relative at Thanksgiving dinner, who comes to the table with his underpants on his head, and tells everyone to look out for "those people". Everyone just looks the other way and continues to pass the potatoes.

Interesting. I see it more as an indication that Europe is becoming increasingly irrelevant. I mean, Iran has already 'partially' backed out of the agreement, has already passed the threshold limit that was set in the agreement Europe was trying to salvage, even while Europe was struggling to come up with a deal for Iran to stay in despite the US backing out. Iran thinks so highly of Europe and said deal that they essentially ignored it, since their besties Russia and China have their back. I think that's because Iran can do basic math and can see that if push comes to shove, the hundreds of billions in trade between the US and the EU (not to mention that whole NATO thingy) is going to mean more than the few 10's of billions of trade between Europe and Iran. Also, that because of both China and Russia, the US is far from the crazy irrelevant uncle you make us out to be wrt the Europeans.

Serious question. Do you think that the EU will continue to trade with Iran as they continue to increasingly breach the refinement limit? Or do you think that Iran will take the European lure and cut back their currently ramped up refinement? And what do you think the US will do in the first case? And what will the EU do in their own current economic straights if Trump decides to do something like what he's doing wrt China? It would hurt the US, no doubt, and probably kill Trump's re-election chances, if he even has one at this point, but it would REALLY hurt the EU for as long as Trump remains in power and probably for some time after that as the new administration tries to figure out how to unravel this mess and back us out of all the stuff he's done. 302

[Euphonious Polemic]

Originally Posted by XT

Serious question. Do you think that the EU will continue to trade with Iran as they continue to increasingly breach the refinement limit? Or do you think that Iran will take the European lure and cut back their currently ramped up refinement? And what do you think the US will do in the first case? And what will the EU do in their own current economic straights if Trump decides to do something like what he's doing wrt China? It would hurt the US, no doubt, and probably kill Trump's re-election chances, if he even has one at this point, but it would REALLY hurt the EU for as long as Trump remains in power and probably for some time after that as the new administration tries to figure out how to unravel this mess and back us out of all the stuff he's done.

That's quite a hard one. Certainly Boris was doing whatever it took to get his current Iranian problem solved whatever it took. The EU though... they may well put sanctions in place if Iran continues to refine uranium. They will want to send a message.
What will the US do? Who the hell knows? Trump is anything if unpredictable. The US may embrace Iran. They may threaten to nuke them into glass. Trump may try to get a personal meeting with Iran's leadership. He may call them insulting names. Who knows?

Yes, we'll have to wait until someone who has some actual ability with diplomacy to unravel this clusterfuck. 303

[Snowboarder Bo]

I'm sure someone in the current administration is pleased about this: Iran uses advanced centrifuges, threatens higher enrichment.

Iran on Saturday said it now uses arrays of advanced centrifuges prohibited by its 2015 nuclear deal and can enrich uranium “much more beyond” current levels to weapons-grade material, taking a third step away from the accord while warning Europe has little time to offer it new terms.

While insisting Iran doesn’t seek a nuclear weapon, the comments by Behrouz Kamalvandi of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran threatened pushing uranium enrichment far beyond levels ever reached in the country. Prior to the atomic deal, Iran only reached up to 20%, which itself still is only a short technical step away from weapons-grade levels of 90%.

Also:

Iran separately acknowledged Saturday it had seized another ship and detained 12 Filipino crewmembers, while satellite images suggested an Iranian oil tanker once held by Gibraltar was now off the coast of Syria despite Tehran promising its oil wouldn’t go there.

And there clearly is no good faith in the Trump administration regarding Iran:

In Paris, U.S. Defense Secretary Mark Esper said Iran’s announcement wasn’t a surprise.

“The Iranians are going to pursue what the Iranians have always intended to pursue,” Esper said at a news conference with his French counterpart, Florence Parly.

I read that as "secretly pursue a bomb", not "pursue their stated goals", a statement that I doubt will endear Mr. Esper to anyone in Iran.

A few relatively quiet weeks didn't indicate any settling of this dust-up, unfortunately. 304

[Snowboarder Bo]

UN atomic watchdog confirms Iran installing new centrifuges; in case there was any doubt.

The International Atomic Energy Agency reported its inspectors verified the installation of new centrifuges. The agency said all had been “prepared for testing” but none yet tested at the time of the Sept. 7-8 inspection.

Asked what the new centrifuges could mean to enhance Iran’s ability to enrich uranium, IAEA Acting Director General Cornel Feruta said “output is not a simple matter” but also it was “not for the agency to judge what these actions will bring.”

“We have made it very clear that the role of the agency is to report the facts to members of the JCPOA and also the board,” Feruta told reporters in Vienna.

305

[Snowboarder Bo]

Iran asks West to leave Persian Gulf in a bold foreign policy gambit:

[Iranian President Hassan] Rouhani spoke from a riser at the parade in Tehran, with uniformed officers from the country’s military and its paramilitary Revolutionary Guard beside him. The cleric later watched as marching soldiers carrying submachine guns and portable missile launchers drove past as part of “Holy Defense Week,” which marks the start of the Iran-Iraq war in 1980.

Rouhani said Iran was willing to “extend the hand of friendship and brotherhood” to Persian Gulf nations and was “even ready to forgive their past mistakes.”

“Those who want to link the region’s incidents to the Islamic Republic of Iran are lying like their past lies that have been revealed,” the president said. “If they are truthful and really seek security in the region, they must not send weapons, fighter jets, bombs and dangerous arms to the region.”

Rouhani added that the U.S. and Western nations should “distance” themselves from the region.

“Your presence has always been a calamity for this region and the farther you go from our region and our nations, the more security would come for our region,” he said.

He said Iran’s plan would focus on providing security in the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz and the Gulf of Oman “with help from regional countries.” Iran has boosted its naval cooperation with China, India, Oman, Pakistan, and Russia in recent years.

306

[Snowboarder Bo]

The UK now says Iran did it.

Also, Boris Johnson does more posturing while still having nothing of substance to contribute. 307