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  #1  
Old 08-28-2017, 03:44 PM
HurricaneDitka HurricaneDitka is online now
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What are the odds we see Senator Arpaio?

Washington Examiner: Joe Arpaio may challenge Jeff Flake for Arizona Senate seat

Quote:
After receiving President Trump's first pardon, Joe Arpaio's plans have gone from possible prison to book-writing, speeches and potentially another run for office in Arizona, with Sen. Jeff Flake's seat one opportunity he is eyeing.

The former Maricopa County sheriff told the Washington Examiner he's upset at negative reaction to the Friday pardon, and that he feels Republican politicians are insufficiently supportive of the president, who he calls a great man.

"I could run for mayor, I could run for legislator, I could run for Senate," Arpaio said Monday. One particular race, however, is likely to gain significant attention: the GOP primary next year facing Flake, R-Ariz., a forceful Trump critic.

"I'm sure getting a lot of people around the state asking me" to challenge Flake, said Arpaio, who served 24 years as sheriff before losing reelection in 2016. "All I'm saying is the door is open and we'll see what happens. I've got support. I know what support I have."
What do you think are the chances that

1) he runs for Senate?

2) he wins the GOP nomination?

3) he wins the general election?

I'd put #1 at the lowest probability, mostly because he's old as dirt, with #2 and #3 fairly plausible if he does run.
  #2  
Old 08-28-2017, 03:56 PM
Vinyl Turnip Vinyl Turnip is online now
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Sure, why not? Let's make this shit sandwich a party sub.
  #3  
Old 08-28-2017, 03:57 PM
Richard Parker Richard Parker is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HurricaneDitka View Post

1) he runs for Senate?

2) he wins the GOP nomination?

3) he wins the general election?

I'd put #1 at the lowest probability, mostly because he's old as dirt, with #2 and #3 fairly plausible if he does run.
Maricopa County was 47-44 Trump, but Arpaio lost 43-56. Maricopa is not the most blue country in AZ. It's closer to the median. He's also running against an incumbent Senator who won his last primary with 70% of the vote. Finally, he's currently asking the federal court to vacate his conviction because of the pardon, in part because of the effect of his conviction on other aspects of his life. So there's a chance this talk is just to bolster his legal standing. He is also 85 years old.

On the other hand, he has widespread name recognition among the law enforcement, Birthers, and White Nationalists, which has only increased with Trump's pardon. So he can probably raise money. And Jeff Flake is going to struggle more than usual in the primary with Trump opposing him. And Arizona is still a red state.

So all in all I'd put the odds this way (framed as overall likelihood, not contingent based on the prior event occurring):

1) 25% chance he runs

2) 8% chance he wins the nomination

3) 3% chance he wins the seat

What about you?
  #4  
Old 08-28-2017, 04:10 PM
HurricaneDitka HurricaneDitka is online now
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Maybe I'm doing my probabilities funky, but here's my WAG thinking:

1) 10% chance he runs

2) (assuming he does run) 25% chance he wins the Republican nomination

3) (assuming he wins the R nomination) 40% chance he wins the seat

Last edited by HurricaneDitka; 08-28-2017 at 04:10 PM.
  #5  
Old 08-28-2017, 04:16 PM
Rick Kitchen Rick Kitchen is offline
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Artile 1, Section 5 of the US Constitution: "Each House shall be the Judge of the Elections, Returns and Qualifications of its own Members". It will be fun to see how stand-up the Republicans in the Senate are as to whether to accept this slug as one of their own.
  #6  
Old 08-28-2017, 04:20 PM
HurricaneDitka HurricaneDitka is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rick Kitchen View Post
Artile 1, Section 5 of the US Constitution: "Each House shall be the Judge of the Elections, Returns and Qualifications of its own Members". It will be fun to see how stand-up the Republicans in the Senate are as to whether to accept this slug as one of their own.
If Arpaio were to run, defeat Flake, and win the general election, I imagine you'd see a significantly-cowed anti-Trump wing of the Republican party.
  #7  
Old 08-28-2017, 04:23 PM
Richard Parker Richard Parker is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HurricaneDitka View Post
Maybe I'm doing my probabilities funky, but here's my WAG thinking:

1) 10% chance he runs

2) (assuming he does run) 25% chance he wins the Republican nomination

3) (assuming he wins the R nomination) 40% chance he wins the seat
I think this means we basically agree, except that I put a higher chance that he runs.

I could see him running just for vanity and fundraising purposes, or as a favor to Trump.
  #8  
Old 08-28-2017, 04:41 PM
Ambrosio Spinola Ambrosio Spinola is offline
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If he did throw his hat in a primary, I assume the big beneficiary would be Jeff Flake. Why? Kelli Ward is also challenging him, and I bet there's a big overlap between Ward and Arpaio voters.
  #9  
Old 08-28-2017, 04:50 PM
kenobi 65 kenobi 65 is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ambrosio Spinola View Post
If he did throw his hat in a primary, I assume the big beneficiary would be Jeff Flake. Why? Kelli Ward is also challenging him, and I bet there's a big overlap between Ward and Arpaio voters.
This seems likely to me, as well.

Mentioned in the Examiner article (and in the news coverage I heard this morning) is, of course, Arpaio's age. He'll turn 86 next June (parenthetically, he and Trump share a birthday). I see no reason for age, in and of itself, to be a determining factor in whether a candidate is capable of serving -- and, AFAICT, Arpaio suffers from no noteworthy health issues. OTOH, he's at an age where suffering from a significant health issue does become increasingly likely.
  #10  
Old 08-28-2017, 05:05 PM
Chronos Chronos is online now
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I'd put it at almost certain that he runs for something, as an ego trip and fundraising exercise if nothing else. The only reason it wouldn't be Senator is that he might not want to compete with Ward.

I don't see him winning, though, not even in the primary. A primary against an incumbent is always tough, and I don't think that Trump's endorsement is enough to overcome that.
  #11  
Old 08-28-2017, 05:05 PM
GIGObuster GIGObuster is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ambrosio Spinola View Post
If he did throw his hat in a primary, I assume the big beneficiary would be Jeff Flake. Why? Kelli Ward is also challenging him, and I bet there's a big overlap between Ward and Arpaio voters.
Based on the poll made before Arpaio was pardoned, the reality is that most Arizonas did not want that pardon, and based on the last election neither Arpaio.

So, I would indeed put better odds on him running than winning.
  #12  
Old 08-28-2017, 05:51 PM
Locrian Locrian is offline
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Trump backs Arpaio, obviously. I think he'll run 100%. Imagine the free late-nite tweets Orangeanus will throw at Flake.

Whether he'll win, no idea.
  #13  
Old 08-28-2017, 06:14 PM
Little Nemo Little Nemo is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ambrosio Spinola View Post
If he did throw his hat in a primary, I assume the big beneficiary would be Jeff Flake. Why? Kelli Ward is also challenging him, and I bet there's a big overlap between Ward and Arpaio voters.
I think this is a big factor. Flake already has an established challenger. Arpaio entering the race would most likely just split the anti-Flake vote and get Flake the nomination.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Locrian View Post
Trump backs Arpaio, obviously.
Trump's already announced he's supporting Ward. Granted, this is Trump; he might switch his endorsement. But endorsing two competing nominees is going to weaken the value of the endorsement.

Last edited by Little Nemo; 08-28-2017 at 06:16 PM.
  #14  
Old 08-28-2017, 07:12 PM
Sherrerd Sherrerd is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Locrian View Post
Trump backs Arpaio, obviously. I think he'll run 100%. Imagine the free late-nite tweets Orangeanus will throw at Flake.
Whether he'll win, no idea.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Little Nemo View Post
I think this is a big factor. Flake already has an established challenger. Arpaio entering the race would most likely just split the anti-Flake vote and get Flake the nomination.
Trump's already announced he's supporting Ward. Granted, this is Trump; he might switch his endorsement. But endorsing two competing nominees is going to weaken the value of the endorsement.
Either way--Trump sticks with Ward, or Trump switches to Arpaio--either way, Trump pisses off McConnell. Which is an ever-present goal for our "very good brain" guy.

Trump genuinely believes he can take down McConnell. Trump thinks he'll wind up with a Senate that will be eager to fulfill his slightest whim.
  #15  
Old 08-28-2017, 08:06 PM
Ethilrist Ethilrist is offline
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Remember, you can't spell "crazy" without R-AZ!
  #16  
Old 08-28-2017, 10:35 PM
dalej42 dalej42 is online now
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He won't run for anything. He's a Sarah Palin and will make his money on the speaking and book writing circuit


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  #17  
Old 08-29-2017, 12:58 AM
cochrane cochrane is online now
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Originally Posted by Ethilrist View Post
Remember, you can't spell "crazy" without R-AZ!
LOL, so fucking true!
  #18  
Old 08-30-2017, 02:49 AM
Senegoid Senegoid is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kenobi 65 View Post
Mentioned in the Examiner article (and in the news coverage I heard this morning) is, of course, Arpaio's age. He'll turn 86 next June (parenthetically, he and Trump share a birthday). I see no reason for age, in and of itself, to be a determining factor in whether a candidate is capable of serving -- and, AFAICT, Arpaio suffers from no noteworthy health issues. OTOH, he's at an age where suffering from a significant health issue does become increasingly likely.
We had a post in some Arpaio thread a few years back -- sorry, can't find it now -- from a poster who had had some in-person encounters with him, and described him as being seemingly senile.
  #19  
Old 08-31-2017, 10:36 AM
Lance Turbo Lance Turbo is offline
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There's a related PreditIt market: Will Jeff Flake be re-elected to the U.S. Senate in Arizona in 2018?

The month of August has not been kind to Jeff Flake, but I don't see any reaction in the graph to Arpaio's pardon or subsequent rumblings about running for office.
  #20  
Old 08-31-2017, 11:41 AM
HurricaneDitka HurricaneDitka is online now
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Wow. $0.29. Ouch!

PredictIt is giving Flake WAY worse odds than Tester in Montana ($0.71), Donnelly in Indiana ($0.60), Heitkamp in North Dakota ($0.58), and McCaskill in Missouri ($0.51).
  #21  
Old 08-31-2017, 11:59 AM
iiandyiiii iiandyiiii is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HurricaneDitka View Post
Wow. $0.29. Ouch!

PredictIt is giving Flake WAY worse odds than Tester in Montana ($0.71), Donnelly in Indiana ($0.60), Heitkamp in North Dakota ($0.58), and McCaskill in Missouri ($0.51).
It's because Flake is a lot more likely to lose his primary than those others.
  #22  
Old 08-31-2017, 12:05 PM
Lance Turbo Lance Turbo is offline
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Even so, Tester No is a pretty good value at $0.29. That's about the same price as Stabenow No. Maybe I'm missing something, but in my mind those two things shouldn't be close.
  #23  
Old 08-31-2017, 12:13 PM
Loach Loach is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ambrosio Spinola View Post
If he did throw his hat in a primary, I assume the big beneficiary would be Jeff Flake. Why? Kelli Ward is also challenging him, and I bet there's a big overlap between Ward and Arpaio voters.
That sounds plausible.

Quote:
Originally Posted by kenobi 65 View Post

Mentioned in the Examiner article (and in the news coverage I heard this morning) is, of course, Arpaio's age. He'll turn 86 next June (parenthetically, he and Trump share a birthday). I see no reason for age, in and of itself, to be a determining factor in whether a candidate is capable of serving -- and, AFAICT, Arpaio suffers from no noteworthy health issues. OTOH, he's at an age where suffering from a significant health issue does become increasingly likely.
Well I disagree. 86 years old for a 6 year term is too old. If 86 is ok with you when does age becomes the major determining factor? 87? 90? 92?
  #24  
Old 08-31-2017, 12:33 PM
Chronos Chronos is online now
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Wait, are we sure he'd be running for Flake's seat? McCain is probably going to either die or retire before then, and while a replacement will be appointed by the governor, it's my understanding that the appointee will only serve until the next election (even if that wouldn't have been the end of the original term), with someone being elected to finish that term. So there's no reason he couldn't run for that seat, instead.
  #25  
Old 08-31-2017, 12:39 PM
Velocity Velocity is online now
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Near zero. He's too old, too unpopular and laden with political baggage. And I don't think he would even want to be a senator.
  #26  
Old 08-31-2017, 04:05 PM
beowulff beowulff is offline
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I very much doubt he will run.
Arpaio likes being the king of his little fiefdom. He will be only one of 50 as a Senator, which can’t be appealing.
  #27  
Old 08-31-2017, 04:29 PM
dalej42 dalej42 is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by beowulff View Post
I very much doubt he will run.
Arpaio likes being the king of his little fiefdom. He will be only one of 50 as a Senator, which can’t be appealing.
Well, he will be one of 100, should he get elected. Barack Obama didn't like the slow pace of the Senate and he was far younger than Arpaio.
  #28  
Old 09-01-2017, 10:52 AM
DummyGladHands DummyGladHands is offline
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Originally Posted by Senegoid View Post
We had a post in some Arpaio thread a few years back -- sorry, can't find it now -- from a poster who had had some in-person encounters with him, and described him as being seemingly senile.
I for one met him a couple time, and I know people in the Phoenix gov't who've had the dubious honor as well. Completely senile. His handlers earn their money.

I was at a luncheon honoring my company and others who'd raised funds for his kids' charity. Buffet luncheon. First he made fun of 2 guys uniforms shirts, following them around and pointing and menacing and kept approaching them until he'd backed them against the wall. The chairperson ran over and jumped between Joe (and his pistol tie clip) and the poor people and shouted until his handlers came over.

When the buffet lunch started, he picked up a serving spoon of something and ate a bite off the spoon, apparently decided he didn't care for it, spit it back on the spoon and put the spoon back in the dish.

Completely senile.
  #29  
Old 09-01-2017, 01:27 PM
Lance Turbo Lance Turbo is offline
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I missed another related PredictIt market...

Will Jeff Flake win the 2018 Arizona Republican Senate primary?

Flake is currently a whisker worse than 50/50.
  #30  
Old 09-01-2017, 01:29 PM
Marvin the Martian Marvin the Martian is online now
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This discussion just put a very bad thought into my head. Assume the Arizona Republicans convince him not to run, or if he loses the primary. He then decides to run for mayor of Fountain Hills (the town where he and I both live). He could win that and re-establish his own (albeit small) fiefdom, with me as one of his subjects (assuming he doesn't run all the registered Dems out of town).

That would suck big-time. At least for me.
  #31  
Old 09-01-2017, 01:48 PM
elucidator elucidator is offline
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Jolted Joe will be lucky if his personal fiefdom doesn't have bars. He no longer has any power to keep the hounds at bay. He is a fool to call any more attention to himself. Its not a coincidence that evil men are so frequently stupid. Half the time, they don't even know that they are.
  #32  
Old 09-01-2017, 11:52 PM
EddyTeddyFreddy EddyTeddyFreddy is offline
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Originally Posted by elucidator View Post
Its not a coincidence that evil men are so frequently stupid. Half the time, they don't even know that they are.
Don't know they're evil, or that they're stupid?

My money's on both.
  #33  
Old 09-02-2017, 10:32 PM
Senegoid Senegoid is offline
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Originally Posted by DummyGladHands View Post
I for one met him a couple time, and I know people in the Phoenix gov't who've had the dubious honor as well. Completely senile. His handlers earn their money.

[ Anecdote about the luncheon recounted here.]
Yes, that's the story! I remember it now. Didn't you also have a story about getting in an elevator with him and his goons?

Even now that I have a few key words to search for and your user name, I still can't find your original post with a Google search.
  #34  
Old 09-07-2017, 09:48 PM
Wesley Clark Wesley Clark is offline
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Sure, why not? Let's make this shit sandwich a party sub.
I laughed way too hard at this. Trump, Arpaio, Kid Rock. Apt metaphor.
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  #35  
Old 09-07-2017, 10:21 PM
eschereal eschereal is online now
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To transplant a post from another thread,
Quote:
Originally Posted by buzzfeed
Arpaio's lawyers filed court papers on Monday arguing that because Trump issued the pardon before Arpaio was sentenced and a final judgment was entered — and, as a result, before Arpaio could appeal his conviction and before the US Supreme Court ruled on an earlier challenge that Arpaio filed related to his trial — the court is "obligated" to vacate his conviction.
Which sounds wrong to me. However,

Quote:
A Justice Department spokesperson said they are "reviewing the motion."
That is troubling. Accepting a pardon constitutes an admission of guilt. Not sure that vacating the ruling would change the fact that he admitted guilt.
  #36  
Old 09-11-2017, 09:27 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kenobi 65 View Post
This seems likely to me, as well.

Mentioned in the Examiner article (and in the news coverage I heard this morning) is, of course, Arpaio's age. He'll turn 86 next June (parenthetically, he and Trump share a birthday). I see no reason for age, in and of itself, to be a determining factor in whether a candidate is capable of serving -- and, AFAICT, Arpaio suffers from no noteworthy health issues. OTOH, he's at an age where suffering from a significant health issue does become increasingly likely.
Let's not forget the amount of tax-payer money that was spent on his behalf. Seems like a challenger could make hay with that.
  #37  
Old 09-19-2017, 01:06 AM
actualliberalnotoneofthose actualliberalnotoneofthose is offline
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I guess this is the Revenge of the RINOs or something. Sometimes I have a hard time believing that the Trump admin isn't a vast leftwing conspiracy aimed at dismantling the GOP.
  #38  
Old 10-01-2017, 03:42 AM
anomalous1 anomalous1 is offline
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Originally Posted by EddyTeddyFreddy View Post
Don't know they're evil, or that they're stupid?

My money's on both.
Truly evil people are smart. He's just an idiot and asshole. Anyone who puts pink underwear on inmates to belittle them, is immature and a total asshole for being so petty.. He is/was/forever will be an arrogant, egotistical P.O.S. Even if pardoned, that is a big [pink] stain on the history pages that will haunt him and his family forever, if he didn't have the foresight to think of that, it makes him a moron.


Someone should do a study on recidivism rates of the inmates in "tent city", my money is on a high rate with an increase in violence due to the way they were treated while being there.


This is coming from a libertarian (conservative leaning).
  #39  
Old 10-21-2017, 10:12 PM
beowulff beowulff is offline
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Recent update:
http://edition.cnn.com/2017/10/20/us...ied/index.html
  #40  
Old 10-21-2017, 11:02 PM
Little Nemo Little Nemo is offline
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Originally Posted by actualliberalnotoneofthose View Post
I guess this is the Revenge of the RINOs or something. Sometimes I have a hard time believing that the Trump admin isn't a vast leftwing conspiracy aimed at dismantling the GOP.
RINOS? There aren't any RINOS in these races. These primary battles are being fought between people who are 100% right wing and people who are 105% right wing. When you start claiming that Roy Moore isn't conservative enough for you, that's a sign you've gone off the deep end.
  #41  
Old 10-25-2017, 09:14 AM
FlikTheBlue FlikTheBlue is offline
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Looks like Kelli Ward has the Republican nomination for Flake’s seat wrapped up at this point. I think the only way Arpaio ever becomes senator is with McCain’s current seat, which I think is unlikely.
  #42  
Old 10-25-2017, 04:01 PM
Lance Turbo Lance Turbo is offline
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Originally Posted by FlikTheBlue View Post
Looks like Kelli Ward has the Republican nomination for Flake’s seat wrapped up at this point. I think the only way Arpaio ever becomes senator is with McCain’s current seat, which I think is unlikely.
I think Flake dropping out actually hurt Ward's chances for the nomination. It was looking like she'd beat Flake easily but now there's a lot of time for new challengers to crop up. Maybe someone more moderate than Ward. Maybe someone Trumpier. Maybe even both.

Plus Ward may still end up with McCain's seat.
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