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  #51  
Old 01-09-2019, 12:46 AM
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Lol, sure.
I'm going to agree with this. AIUI, her first bout of pancreatic cancer was only discovered during a 'regularly scheduled' whole body CAT scan. Is this a type of diagnostic screen that federal employees can typically expect as part of their compensation? If so, no wonder people love getting federal government jobs.

I mean, on paper, the Politburo members got the same care as the rest of the Party too.
  #52  
Old 01-09-2019, 10:43 AM
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Sam Stone, Kavanaugh's record shows that he thinks it's OK for employers to violate employee-protection laws, as long as they also broke the law by hiring them in the first place. And he's also on record as saying that it should be illegal to investigate the President, which is of course the reason why Trump picked him. That's not a "reasonable record".
  #53  
Old 01-09-2019, 11:46 AM
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Sam Stone, Kavanaugh's record shows that he thinks it's OK for employers to violate employee-protection laws, as long as they also broke the law by hiring them in the first place. And he's also on record as saying that it should be illegal to investigate the President, which is of course the reason why Trump picked him. That's not a "reasonable record".
Further, you could get into Kavanaugh's views about the (according to him) very broad powers the Executive Branch has when dealing with matters such as wartime detention of enemy combatants or of the Executive's power to conduct surveillance upon the domestic United States population. This post at ScotusBlog goes into Kavanaugh's jurisprudence while on the D.C. Circuit in great detail, and I would think would be a much better reason for the left, or civil libertarians, to dislike the appointment of Kavanaugh to the Court. http://www.scotusblog.com/2018/08/ju...ecurity-cases/
  #54  
Old 01-09-2019, 04:24 PM
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My best guess from the publicly available material is that she had a 50/50 chance to make it to January 3rd 2021. I think making it to Halloween of 2020 would be long enough to prevent Trump from naming her replacement, assuming he loses. I also think she has almost no chance of making it to January of 2025. None the less, having had surgery is actually a sign in her favor. Most surgeons would hesitate to perform such a major operation on someone her age if they didn’t think she had at least a fair chance of recovering.

Also, I agree with Sam Stone about Roberts, but not Gorsuch and Kavanaugh.

Last edited by FlikTheBlue; 01-09-2019 at 04:25 PM.
  #55  
Old 01-09-2019, 05:05 PM
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Kavanaugh is the big unknown, because we haven't heard a lot from him on the Supreme Court yet.

The history of Supreme Court appointments is that they often surprise people. Souter was supposed to be a solid conservative, as was Roberts. And other justices who were supposed to vote reliably left have sometimes joined the other side.

There's something about being on the highest court of the land, setting precedents that can change the country, which might cause otherwise partisan people to actually focus on the law and move more to the center.
  #56  
Old 01-09-2019, 08:54 PM
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What does it matter? Look at the Senate map in 2020, and it becomes obvious that the Democrats have practically no chance to take back the Senate. Even if she makes it that long, a hypothetical Dem president won't be naming her replacement. Cocaine Mitch will just leave it vacant until there is a Republican president. Maybe after she dies 8 justices will just become the new norm.

Last edited by pjacks; 01-09-2019 at 08:55 PM.
  #57  
Old 01-09-2019, 09:01 PM
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. . . Maybe after she dies 8 justices will just become the new norm.
That might work well, so long as Roberts is really the incubating liberal that some people here seem to believe.
  #58  
Old 01-10-2019, 10:09 AM
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What does it matter? Look at the Senate map in 2020, and it becomes obvious that the Democrats have practically no chance to take back the Senate. Even if she makes it that long, a hypothetical Dem president won't be naming her replacement. Cocaine Mitch will just leave it vacant until there is a Republican president. Maybe after she dies 8 justices will just become the new norm.
How do you figure that? I see only one likely R-to-D flip (AL), five R-held seats that look like plausible D pickups (CO, AZ, ME, IA, NC), and seventeen other states where Rs are playing defense; while none of the others look particularly likely to flip right now, it's a numbers game where the odds of something weird happening somewhere are fairly high when one party is defending that many seats. Basically, it's the reverse of the 2018 Senate map, and with a Democratic vice-president, the Ds would only need to net three seats to have a majority.
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  #59  
Old 01-10-2019, 10:34 AM
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How do you figure that? I see only one likely R-to-D flip (AL), five R-held seats that look like plausible D pickups (CO, AZ, ME, IA, NC), and seventeen other states where Rs are playing defense; while none of the others look particularly likely to flip right now, it's a numbers game where the odds of something weird happening somewhere are fairly high when one party is defending that many seats. Basically, it's the reverse of the 2018 Senate map, and with a Democratic vice-president, the Ds would only need to net three seats to have a majority.
The Senate Will Be Competitive Again In 2020, But Republicans Are Favored
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There will be at least 34 seats up for election in 2020,2 22 of which are currently held by Republicans and 12 of which are currently held by Democrats — a stark contrast to the 2018 cycle, when Democrats were on the hot seat. That said, to make the kind of gains they need, Democrats will have to overcome the partisan lean of some fairly red states, plus successfully defend two seats of their own in Republican territory.
If you look at the chart, 19 of those 34 seats up for election are +9R or more. 4 of the seats the Dems are defending are competitive ranging from +1.7R to +2.1D

Last edited by CarnalK; 01-10-2019 at 10:35 AM.
  #60  
Old 01-10-2019, 11:31 AM
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Though "practically no chance" overstates it, you can see how difficult it will be. If we give the Dems a +8 advantage, which is about what the 2018 "blue wave" was and where the generic congressional polling is at, and apply it to that 538 list then the Dems would pick up 4 seats but still lose Alabama. That would tie the Senate and make the VP's schedule a lot busier.

Last edited by CarnalK; 01-10-2019 at 11:32 AM.
  #61  
Old 01-10-2019, 12:26 PM
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Oh, I know; I don't mean to understate the difficulty, but "practically impossible" is a wild overstatement. It's a toss-up or a slight R lean, not a near-certainty.
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  #62  
Old 01-10-2019, 01:38 PM
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Trump has the funeral home on standby

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/...arture-1096102
  #63  
Old 01-10-2019, 03:35 PM
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Trump has the funeral home on standby

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/...arture-1096102
Your link says:

Quote:
The White House "is taking the temperature on possible short-list candidates, reaching out to key stakeholders, and just making sure that people are informed on the process," said a source familiar with those conversations, who spoke on background given the delicate nature of the subject. "They're doing it very quietly, of course, because the idea is not to be opportunistic, but just to be prepared so we aren't caught flat-footed."
That seems pretty reasonable and less vulture-like than your post.
  #64  
Old 01-10-2019, 07:03 PM
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You don't need the Senate to go Democratic if the President is a Democrat.

The problem then would be them trying to keep the seat vacant. But the President could hold off on signing bills until the office is filled. Hell, if they successfully push the narrative that the Republicans are the ones being obstinate by rejecting a good justice, then we could have a shutdown to enforce it. It would be the Republican's fault for not accepting any judges.

But we do need to try and hold on until then. If I were RBG, my living will would not let you take me off life support, period. I would expect my family to understand.
  #65  
Old 01-10-2019, 07:07 PM
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... If I were RBG, my living will would not let you take me off life support, period. I would expect my family to understand.
Yeah but that's you. Do you imagine she's that hell-bent on partisanship?
  #66  
Old 01-10-2019, 09:57 PM
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Do you imagine she's that hell-bent on partisanship?
Partisanship? Is that how you see it? After what McConnell did to Obama? (hint: it involved Gorsuch)

Now, that was partisan.

Were you being satirical?

Last edited by KarlGauss; 01-10-2019 at 10:00 PM.
  #67  
Old 01-10-2019, 10:21 PM
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Yeah but that's you. Do you imagine she's that hell-bent on partisanship?
You can't be fucking serious. After the shit that was pulled on Garland to get (the still entirely illegitimate) Gorsuch on the bench?

Yes, I expect RBG to be there like the bionic woman until Trump is not there to replace her.

Cut the crap.
  #68  
Old 01-10-2019, 10:56 PM
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Partisanship? Is that how you see it? After what McConnell did to Obama? (hint: it involved Gorsuch)

Now, that was partisan.

Were you being satirical?
I would see it as highly partisan for her to say "keep my body on artificial life support until Trump is no longer in office, then you can pull the plug", yes, not being satirical.

I doubt she'll do that, as she has repeatedly said she would not retire until she couldn't do the job "full steam" anymore (source).

And I expect much liberal wailing and gnashing of teeth when that day comes, which I suspect is not far off now.

Last edited by HurricaneDitka; 01-10-2019 at 10:56 PM.
  #69  
Old 01-10-2019, 11:08 PM
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I thought her lung cancer nodes were all completely removed, meaning that the lung cancer isn't an issue; not like it metastasized.


Furthermore, even if she goes into a coma, she can't be removed from office. Only outright death will do it, and with modern technology, she would most likely last at least until a Democrat becomes president.
It can take a while for a spread to happen or be detected; I'm still in the waiting period and getting checked still (I'm too young for cancer!). So thinking she's clear is probably premature.
  #70  
Old 01-11-2019, 02:12 AM
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Rachel Maddow interviewed the head of thoracic surgery at Mount Sinai Medical Center this evening (Thursday). While he's not her physician, he's very familiar with this type of surgery and overall he said he would anticipate a positive outcome. I didn't take notes, but here are some of the points he made:
  • While the surgery is relatively uncomplicated, it's still a major operation and involves a significant recuperation. So he's not at all surprised that she's not at the court, but would anticipate she'd be back within a month.
  • The fact that she was released after four days (and hasn't been readmitted) suggests no complications such as blood clots.
  • Colon cancer normally metastasizes to the liver before the lungs, and metastasis of pancreatic cancer would (again, normally) have shown up well before now. Granted that cancer is by its nature an aberrant disease, these are reassuring points.
As for her age, Maddow said at the end of the show that she raised the question during the final commercial break. His response was that he'd performed the same surgery on a 105-year-old patient (presumably with a good outcome).

"Past performance does not guarantee future results" and so on and so forth; still, reading too much into her absence from the Court is probably not warranted. He certainly didn't appear to think it is.
  #71  
Old 01-11-2019, 02:21 AM
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This is a ghoulish thread.
  #72  
Old 01-11-2019, 04:23 AM
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This is a ghoulish thread.
I was thinking the same. Obviously her position is valued greater than her wellbeing. Never mind if she doesn't do anything useful for the rest of her life, just - whatever you do - don't die, bitch! At least for the next year. After that you can go to hell.

There is something fundamentally rotten in our political system.
  #73  
Old 01-11-2019, 05:44 AM
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the idea of keeping someone alive purely for political reasons is really bad. I don't know what a Dr or hospital would think about that but I doubt they would be in favor of it.
  #74  
Old 01-11-2019, 06:07 AM
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What does it matter? Look at the Senate map in 2020, and it becomes obvious that the Democrats have practically no chance to take back the Senate. Even if she makes it that long, a hypothetical Dem president won't be naming her replacement. Cocaine Mitch will just leave it vacant until there is a Republican president. Maybe after she dies 8 justices will just become the new norm.
If the Democrats take the Presidency but not the Senate in 2020, and then there's an opening on the Court, maybe the seat just stays vacant until 2022. But if the Dems at least make some gains in the Senate in 2020, they should have a great opportunity to retake it in 2022.

I wouldn't say they have "practically no chance" in 2020, though. An uphill battle, sure.
  #75  
Old 01-11-2019, 07:09 AM
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A GoFundMe account would raise enough money to get her the level of care Queen Elizabeth II or the Pope get in short order.
The Pope? JP 2 had long-term problems due to bad treatment after he was shot, not least due to a transfusion with blood that was past its sell by date. He never had the same vigor again and for at least his last decade looked like a warmed-up zombie. It's amazing what he did, considering his health.

And JP 1 evidently did not get a proper checkout from the Vatican cardiologists. No conspiracies, just a dodgy ticker.
  #76  
Old 01-11-2019, 07:48 AM
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I think people pointing out how the surgery was a success, she doesn't need any further treatment for it, the same operation has been performed on a hundred and five year old, or whatever, are missing the forest for the trees. The reason people are, quite reasonably, speculating that she's on the way out, is that when an elderly person 1) begins falling, or 2) begins experiencing one medical problem after another in quick succession, that is usually a sign of the beginning of the end. And both those things have happened to Ginsburg.
  #77  
Old 01-11-2019, 07:52 AM
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It is, of course, in very bad taste to note that the 2019 Death Pool has yet to kick off.
  #78  
Old 01-11-2019, 08:49 AM
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Please let the poor women spend her last days in peace. She has earned it.
Start worrying about Breyer’s ticker.
  #79  
Old 01-11-2019, 10:00 AM
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It is, of course, in very bad taste to note that the 2019 Death Pool has yet to kick off.
Bad taste, bad schmaste - points is points.

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  #80  
Old 01-11-2019, 11:39 AM
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https://twitter.com/scotusreporter/s...78155293405185

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BREAKING: No remaining signs of cancer for Justice Ginsburg, and no additional treatment required, Supreme Court says. She'll miss next week's arguments but continue to participate in cases from home
  #81  
Old 01-11-2019, 11:46 AM
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...1) begins falling, or 2) begins experiencing one medical problem after another in quick succession, that is usually a sign of the beginning of the end. .
What "quick succession"? The previous time she had a serious medical issue was 5 years ago when she had a coronary stent put in. And the cancer in her lung was discovered because she fractured a rib, otherwise it may not have been discovered for a while. 2 medical procedures in 5 years + cracked ribs is hardly a sign of imminent death.

Last edited by scr4; 01-11-2019 at 11:48 AM.
  #82  
Old 01-11-2019, 01:17 PM
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One thing that has yet to be mentioned (AFAIK) is that lung cancer in a woman without a significant smoking history is not the death sentence it used to be (assuming that RBG's primary is in the lung).

The most common lung cancer nowadays is what's called adenocarcinoma and, in about 70 to 80 percent of non-smoking women who get it, relatively benign 'chemotherapy' effects a complete remission if not cure.

I am referring to treatments such as described (in some detail) here.
  #83  
Old 01-12-2019, 08:23 AM
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First let me say I hope she recovers.

How much time, I think she was holding out for a Democrat president before she retires, with Trump in the office, she'll try to hold out until the election with the hopes the Democrats will take over the WH.

That said even at her age and with her health problems, she could stay on the bench for years. In my family the women generally get into their very late 90's or early 100's so without knowing her family history we could say 0 to 15 years.
  #84  
Old 01-12-2019, 10:35 AM
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There's a difference between the questions, "How long can Justice Ginsburg fulfill her duties as a Justice," and "How long before Justice Ginsburg's seat is vacant." AIUI, the answer to the first question is, "Now," so long as she cannot participate in the closed-session conferences with the other Justices. From her home, she may be able to listen to transcripts of oral argument, read the briefs, and draft opinions.
It's not the first time a Supreme Court Justice has worked from home. Chief Justice Rehnquist missed a bunch during cancer treatment in 2004 and 2005.
  #85  
Old 01-13-2019, 10:15 AM
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It's not the first time a Supreme Court Justice has worked from home. Chief Justice Rehnquist missed a bunch during cancer treatment in 2004 and 2005.
Doesn't mean it is right.

Is it fair to the parties who appear in front of the Supreme Court that Ginsberg isn't there to hear their oral arguments or does she already have her mind made up anyway?
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Old 01-13-2019, 10:34 AM
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It's not the first time a Supreme Court Justice has worked from home. Chief Justice Rehnquist missed a bunch during cancer treatment in 2004 and 2005.
And croaked pretty quickly after...
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Old 01-13-2019, 12:53 PM
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Doesn't mean it is right.

Is it fair to the parties who appear in front of the Supreme Court that Ginsberg isn't there to hear their oral arguments or does she already have her mind made up anyway?
You mean, it's not fair that the lawyer's piercing blue eyes are not part of the decision when RBG merely reads their oral arguments at home?
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Old 01-14-2019, 03:19 PM
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First let me say I hope she recovers.

How much time, I think she was holding out for a Democrat president before she retires, with Trump in the office, she'll try to hold out until the election with the hopes the Democrats will take over the WH.

That said even at her age and with her health problems, she could stay on the bench for years. In my family the women generally get into their very late 90's or early 100's so without knowing her family history we could say 0 to 15 years.
15 years would be a long shot. If I had to guess I'd say 1-5 years.

Would she be better off retiring or dying in office? Public service is a calling and if a doctor gives a patient just a few weeks or month to live the person in service should step down.

The Supreme Court has become too politized, and with RGB passing, the waters will reach a boil, which is why I think she should step down if she knows she won't live to 2020.

Older people only have a certain amount of comebacks in them, and the older you are, the less chance you have of beating an illness.
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Old 01-14-2019, 04:08 PM
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Is it fair to the parties who appear in front of the Supreme Court that Ginsberg isn't there to hear their oral arguments or does she already have her mind made up anyway?
(post shortened)

The oral arguments before the Supremes is one of the final stages of reaching a decision. All Supremes have access to the original trial transcript, any appellate court decisions, amicus curiae (friend of the court) briefs, research done by the Supremes's clerks, as well as having had numerous closed door discussions with the other Supremes.

Questions asked during the limited time allowed for oral arguments may simply be made to satisfy a justice's curiosity, or may be instrumental in making a final decision. How much the Supremes actually rely on the oral arguments to make their decision is one of the great mysteries of life. They ain't talkin' but there are plenty of pundits who will gladly tell everyone what they think the Supremes are thinking.
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Old 01-17-2019, 11:04 PM
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Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg cancels 2 upcoming events

Not necessarily surprising considering she's still recovering from major surgery and her age. But still another data point.
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Old 01-18-2019, 04:29 AM
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Is it fair to the parties who appear in front of the Supreme Court that Ginsberg isn't there to hear their oral arguments
Surely all she has to do in such cases is to recuse herself and not vote?
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Old 01-18-2019, 07:56 AM
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Surely all she has to do in such cases is to recuse herself and not vote?
She doesn't have to recuse herself. She is supposedly reading transcripts of oral arguments from home, and no doubt her clerks are doing the same research they always would.

She's gonna hang onto her seat until
  1. Trump is no longer President, or
  2. she dies.
Whichever comes first.

As long as she doesn't appear in public, it becomes easier to maintain that she is still a functioning member of the Court, and doesn't need to be removed and replaced. The other Justices are likely to play along - they don't want to embarrass a colleague.

If some abortion case or the equivalent comes before the Court, everybody knows how she will rule. Her senior clerk will write the opinion, she will review and sign it, and it ultimately won't make that much difference.

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Old 01-18-2019, 03:12 PM
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Please let the poor women spend her last days in peace. She has earned it.
Start worrying about Breyer’s ticker.

He's 80. Ginsberg is 85 with three cancers treatments in different areas.

If RBG can't serve to her standards, should retire. Often the worst thing for an older and sick person to do is to over commit to work shortly after surgery. In this case, they took out a piece of her lung
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Old 01-18-2019, 03:13 PM
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I'm sure she appreciates the advice.
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  #95  
Old 01-18-2019, 03:55 PM
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The latest rumor is that Ginsburg has contracted pneumonia. No major news outlet has confirmed it, but it wouldn't be a surprise either.
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Old 01-18-2019, 05:04 PM
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This website claims that her pneumonia will cause her to retire before the end of this month. (warning, super right-wing website)

https://www.smobserved.com/story/201...2019/3658.html
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Old 01-19-2019, 01:12 AM
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Is it fair to the parties who appear in front of the Supreme Court that Ginsberg isn't there to hear their oral arguments or does she already have her mind made up anyway?
Justice Thomas famously never asks questions questions during oral arguments. He could do the same exact job he's doing now by reading everything after the fact since he's not going to contribute. I don't think that's any more or less "unfair" just because he's warming a chair.
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Old 01-21-2019, 09:21 AM
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I'm optimistic.

As Flyer points out she has a statistically average 6.8 years left. However, that average includes very sick 85 year olds. Setting aside the cancer, she is unusually healthy for an 85 year old. Plus, as CarnalK points out, she has unusually good access to health care. She also has an unusually big motive to stay healthy and survive, which I think is known to tend to extend life.

So, what about the cancer? She is currently not known to have any. Obviously she is in some kind of higher risk category, but she appeared to have had slow cancers. It's easy to anticipate that her overall cancer story may have a dim outlook for 10, 20 or 30 years from now. But it's not all that common for somebody who is being closely studied for cancer and not known to currently have it to die from it in two years, or even six.
  #99  
Old 01-21-2019, 10:14 AM
HurricaneDitka is online now
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Fox got antsy: https://thehill.com/homenews/media/4...nsburg-is-dead
  #100  
Old 01-21-2019, 10:41 AM
RTFirefly is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HurricaneDitka View Post
Obviously any news org has prepackaged obits of prominent people that are basically ready to go at a moment's notice. Fox follows this practice as well. It's probably easy to goof up and put it on the air momentarily. It's more amusing when Fox does it with someone like Ginsburg because it comes across as wishful thinking.

Last edited by RTFirefly; 01-21-2019 at 10:41 AM.
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