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  #151  
Old 08-23-2017, 01:45 PM
kenobi 65 kenobi 65 is online now
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Congress would be in the position of potentially prosecuting a president over something that wasn't really the initial impetus of the investigation.
Which is exactly what led to the impeachment of Bill Clinton. Ken Starr's investigation was originally into the details of the Whitewater land deal, but his scope was widened, and the impeachment was for perjury and obstruction of justice in regards to Paula Jones's sexual harassment lawsuit against Clinton.

Last edited by kenobi 65; 08-23-2017 at 01:45 PM.
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  #152  
Old 08-23-2017, 01:46 PM
Locrian Locrian is offline
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Now I think there's zero chance of resignation. The pubs may not like him or his 'tude, but they're getting the religious bills and other "historic" bills signed by the Tumor. And he gets free rides on a plane and to beep horns.
  #153  
Old 08-23-2017, 03:32 PM
asahi asahi is offline
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Which is exactly what led to the impeachment of Bill Clinton. Ken Starr's investigation was originally into the details of the Whitewater land deal, but his scope was widened, and the impeachment was for perjury and obstruction of justice in regards to Paula Jones's sexual harassment lawsuit against Clinton.
Yep, but it was the opposition party prosecuting congress, and in any case, Clinton prevailed.

I go back to what I've said before, which is that, despite what they teach in civics and con-law classes, a president is really forced out of office for basically one reason and one reason only: the country has to be in bad shape somehow. Maybe the economy sucks. Maybe the country's in the middle of an unpopular war. Maybe the country's just getting out of a civil war. Trump's race baiting might possibly qualify if we have more Charlottesvilles. But I don't think the results of Mueller's investigation by itself will do Trump in. Maybe the failure to appease his base plus a recession might do the trick.
  #154  
Old 08-23-2017, 04:44 PM
HMS Irruncible HMS Irruncible is offline
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I'm not sure if people are going to accept impeaching a president over crimes unrelated to his office or unrelated to winning the office.
Yeah, that would never happen. Certainly it would never happen to Bill Clinton.
  #155  
Old 08-23-2017, 08:40 PM
asahi asahi is offline
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Yeah, that would never happen. Certainly it would never happen to Bill Clinton.
Congress, as I recall, did pay a price in the mid-terms, losing seats that they probably should have won, which cost Gingrich his speakership. It wasn't Clinton who paid the price for his impeachment; it was everyone around him who did, including those who tried to prosecute it. George W Bush scavenged off the remains.
  #156  
Old 08-24-2017, 11:09 PM
Beckdawrek Beckdawrek is online now
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But ..then..theres that 'wall'thing..45s never die they just fade away!!
  #157  
Old 08-24-2017, 11:11 PM
Beckdawrek Beckdawrek is online now
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We just in big trouble..i don't see an easy way out..someone will cry!!
  #158  
Old 08-25-2017, 05:41 AM
Gyrate Gyrate is offline
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But ..then..theres that 'wall'thing..45s never die they just fade away!!
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We just in big trouble..i don't see an easy way out..someone will cry!!
I genuinely do not understand what you are trying to say here.
  #159  
Old 08-26-2017, 02:48 PM
Siam Sam Siam Sam is offline
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Donald Trump Will Resign and It Will Happen ‘Suddenly,’ Predicts Keith Olbermann

Again, if you're predicting a "resignation" on January 20 of 2021 or 2025, I will not consider that eligible for the prize.
  #160  
Old 08-26-2017, 03:24 PM
asahi asahi is offline
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Trump will only resign or be impeached if the country's mood sours to the point where his base cracks. That'll only happen if the base itself comes to the conclusion that Trump isn't making America great again. They'll probably laugh at whatever charges Mueller brings before congress and call it a conspiracy. When the Dow loses half its value, have stagflation, or get caught in some messy war that people blame the president for, then you'll see impeachment.
  #161  
Old 08-29-2017, 05:16 AM
Gyrate Gyrate is offline
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Trump will only resign or be impeached if the country's mood sours to the point where his base cracks. That'll only happen if the base itself comes to the conclusion that Trump isn't making America great again. They'll probably laugh at whatever charges Mueller brings before congress and call it a conspiracy. When the Dow loses half its value, have stagflation, or get caught in some messy war that people blame the president for, then you'll see impeachment.
More likely it will happen when the GOP in Congress do the political calculus and decide that the benefits of having President Pence outweigh the demerits of impeaching Trump. If booting Trump will earn them more votes than it loses, out will come the long knives. That doesn't necessarily require the hardcore base to crack; there are still votes in the middle-right to court and they are already starting to be disgusted with Trump.
  #162  
Old 08-29-2017, 06:17 AM
asahi asahi is offline
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More likely it will happen when the GOP in Congress do the political calculus and decide that the benefits of having President Pence outweigh the demerits of impeaching Trump. If booting Trump will earn them more votes than it loses, out will come the long knives. That doesn't necessarily require the hardcore base to crack; there are still votes in the middle-right to court and they are already starting to be disgusted with Trump.
I agree 100% - this is what it comes down to.

I think Senate Republicans are already worried. Not about the Senate in 2018, but about about the House and looking beyond that, the Senate in 2020. I guess they can take some relief in the fact that Democrats still don't seem to be putting up particularly organized and effective resistance at the moment. There's no credible leader, no spokesman for the party, and no message.
  #163  
Old 08-29-2017, 06:40 AM
BobLibDem BobLibDem is offline
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I see this path:

Mueller indicts Donald for money laundering, racketeering, corruption, and obstruction of justice. A replay of Nixon's Saturday Night Massacre ensues. Congress re-appoints Mueller. Donald pardons himself. The case goes to the Supreme Court, and on a 5-4 vote decides that presidents may not pardon themselves. Donald resigns and Pence pardons him. However, New York officials indict him on applicable state charges, he is tried and convicted and spends the rest of his life in prison.
  #164  
Old 08-29-2017, 06:47 AM
Gyrate Gyrate is offline
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I agree 100% - this is what it comes down to.

I think Senate Republicans are already worried. Not about the Senate in 2018, but about about the House and looking beyond that, the Senate in 2020. I guess they can take some relief in the fact that Democrats still don't seem to be putting up particularly organized and effective resistance at the moment. There's no credible leader, no spokesman for the party, and no message.
There is also the point that if they consider impeachment to be more or less inevitable it is in their own best interest to get it done and over with as early in the term as possible in order to limit the damage to the 2020 campaign(s).

BobLibDem: I doubt Trump will ever spend a night in jail. That doesn't mean there aren't some huge-ass fines in his future, though.
  #165  
Old 08-29-2017, 06:59 AM
asahi asahi is offline
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There is also the point that if they consider impeachment to be more or less inevitable it is in their own best interest to get it done and over with as early in the term as possible in order to limit the damage to the 2020 campaign(s).
Impeachment isn't inevitable; the Republicans control the congress, so nothing is inevitable. It would only be inevitable if they lost control of congress in 2018, and that's not going to happen. The Senate Republicans would probably pull the plug on Trump if they could, but impeachment starts in the House. And so far the party of Trump has held its ground. The intensity of its support is slipping, but it's still holding. Senator Jeff Flake probably is probably more worried about losing to a democrat than a primary opponent, but in the House, the threat of a primary challenger could be a real one, depending on the district.

That's why I think that the only thing that brings Trump down is some kind of national crisis or some kind of sudden change in national mood. Maybe the economy goes south, or maybe the war in Afghanistan gets really messy. Not that I want these things to happen obviously, but this is the only thing that brings Trump under the threat of an impeachment.

Last edited by asahi; 08-29-2017 at 07:01 AM.
  #166  
Old 08-29-2017, 09:18 AM
ThelmaLou ThelmaLou is offline
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Originally Posted by BobLibDem View Post
I see this path:

Mueller indicts Donald for money laundering, racketeering, corruption, and obstruction of justice. A replay of Nixon's Saturday Night Massacre ensues. Congress re-appoints Mueller. Donald pardons himself. The case goes to the Supreme Court, and on a 5-4 vote decides that presidents may not pardon themselves. Donald resigns and Pence pardons him. However, New York officials indict him on applicable state charges, he is tried and convicted and spends the rest of his life in prison.
Don't tease like that!

<sigh> The Orange One in an orange jumpsuit (size XXXXL). Sweet.
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