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  #201  
Old 09-03-2019, 12:37 AM
Ellis Dee is offline
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Updated list for the new page:



1.01 Petey - Josh Jacobs, RB, Oak
1.02 Beef - David Montgomery, RB, Chi
1.03 Justin - Miles Sanders, RB, Phi
1.04 Overly - Darrell Henderson, RB, LAR
1.05 Justin - Kyler Murray, QB, Arz
1.06 Omni - Justice Hill, RB, Bal
1.07 Gaffer - N'Keal Harry, WR, NE
1.08 Retro - Darwin Thompson, RB, KC
1.09 RNATB - T.J. Hockenson, TE, Det
1.10 Hamlet - Devin Singletary, RB, Buf
1.11 dale - Tony Pollard, RB, Dal
1.12 dale - Damien Harris, RB, NE

2.01 Petey - D.K. Metcalf, WR, Sea
2.02 Beef - Deebo Samuel, WR, SF
2.03 Justin - A.J. Brown, WR, Ten
2.04 Overly - Alexander Mattison, RB, Min
2.05 Ellis - Daniel Jones, QB, NYG
2.06 Omni - J.J. Arcega-Whiteside, WR, Phi
2.07 Gaffer - Parris Campbell, WR, Ind
2.08 Retro - Miles Boykin, WR, Bal
2.09 RNATB - Mecole Hardman, WR, KC
2.10 Hamlet - Darren Waller, TE, Oak
2.11 RNATB - Noah Fant, TE, Den
2.12 Ellis - Marquise Brown, WR, Bal

3.01 Petey - Dwayne Haskins, QB, Was
3.02 Beef - Andy Isabella, WR, Arz
3.03 Ellis - Jalen Hurd, WR, SF
3.04 Overly - Will Grier, QB, Car
3.05 Jules - Justin Jackson, RB, LAC
3.06 Omni - Nick Foles, QB, Jax
3.07 Gaffer - Ryquell Armstead, RB, Jax
3.08 Retro - KeeSean Johnson, WR, Arz
3.09 Jules - Terry McLaurin, WR, Was
3.11 Jules - Preston Williams, WR, Mia
3.12 dale -

4.01 Petey -
4.02 Beef -
4.04 dale -
4.05 dale -
4.06 Omni -
4.07 Gaffer -
4.11 Jules -

5.06 Omni -
5.11 Jules -

6.06 Omni -
  #202  
Old 09-03-2019, 01:22 PM
Jules Andre is offline
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Trade to announce:

dalej42 gets:
Amari Cooper, WR, Dal
Ian Thomas, TE, Car

Jules Andre gets:
James Conner, RB, Pit
Pick 3.12

Pick coming up within 10-15 minutes.
  #203  
Old 09-03-2019, 01:49 PM
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3.12 - Hakeem Butler, WR, Ari

pm sent to Petey
  #204  
Old 09-03-2019, 02:24 PM
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So that I have each position:

4.01: Irv Smith, Jr., TE, Min


Sending PM to SenorBeef
  #205  
Old 09-03-2019, 05:23 PM
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4.02 Damion Willis WR CIN
  #206  
Old 09-03-2019, 06:53 PM
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4.04 Dallas D/ST
4.05 Cam Sims WR Washington Redskins. He’s worth a shot even though he’s on the practice squad.
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  #207  
Old 09-03-2019, 10:05 PM
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First off, I never got a PM so my sub 5 minute average on the clock is spoiled. Next, my pick.

4.06 WR Jakobi Meyers, WR, NE
  #208  
Old 09-04-2019, 12:28 AM
Jules Andre is offline
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Updating this list, but there's an important note: Beef actually has a pick at 5.02 for cutting Isaiah Crowell. This wasn't originally added because the cut wasn't really confirmed right away, but after we decided that it did have to happen, it wasn't added to the list.

1.01 Petey - Josh Jacobs, RB, Oak
1.02 Beef - David Montgomery, RB, Chi
1.03 Justin - Miles Sanders, RB, Phi
1.04 Overly - Darrell Henderson, RB, LAR
1.05 Justin - Kyler Murray, QB, Arz
1.06 Omni - Justice Hill, RB, Bal
1.07 Gaffer - N'Keal Harry, WR, NE
1.08 Retro - Darwin Thompson, RB, KC
1.09 RNATB - T.J. Hockenson, TE, Det
1.10 Hamlet - Devin Singletary, RB, Buf
1.11 dale - Tony Pollard, RB, Dal
1.12 dale - Damien Harris, RB, NE

2.01 Petey - D.K. Metcalf, WR, Sea
2.02 Beef - Deebo Samuel, WR, SF
2.03 Justin - A.J. Brown, WR, Ten
2.04 Overly - Alexander Mattison, RB, Min
2.05 Ellis - Daniel Jones, QB, NYG
2.06 Omni - J.J. Arcega-Whiteside, WR, Phi
2.07 Gaffer - Parris Campbell, WR, Ind
2.08 Retro - Miles Boykin, WR, Bal
2.09 RNATB - Mecole Hardman, WR, KC
2.10 Hamlet - Darren Waller, TE, Oak
2.11 RNATB - Noah Fant, TE, Den
2.12 Ellis - Marquise Brown, WR, Bal

3.01 Petey - Dwayne Haskins, QB, Was
3.02 Beef - Andy Isabella, WR, Arz
3.03 Ellis - Jalen Hurd, WR, SF
3.04 Overly - Will Grier, QB, Car
3.05 Jules - Justin Jackson, RB, LAC
3.06 Omni - Nick Foles, QB, Jax
3.07 Gaffer - Ryquell Armstead, RB, Jax
3.08 Retro - KeeSean Johnson, WR, Arz
3.09 Jules - Terry McLaurin, WR, Was
3.11 Jules - Preston Williams, WR, Mia
3.12 Jules - Hakeem Butler, WR, Ari

4.01 Petey - Irv Smith, Jr., TE, Min
4.02 Beef - Damion Willis, WR, Cin
4.04 dale - Dallas, DEF
4.05 dale - Cam Sims, WR, Was
4.06 Omni - Jakobi Meyers, WR, NE
4.07 Gaffer -
4.11 Jules -

5.02 Beef -
5.06 Omni -
5.11 Jules -

6.06 Omni -

Last edited by Jules Andre; 09-04-2019 at 12:28 AM.
  #209  
Old 09-04-2019, 01:26 AM
dalej42 is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Omniscient View Post
First off, I never got a PM so my sub 5 minute average on the clock is spoiled. Next, my pick.

4.06 WR Jakobi Meyers, WR, NE
Sorry, it completely skipped my mind. I had these picks plus had the He Hate Me draft while I was working. Glad to see we’ve made up pretty much all the time that was lost.
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  #210  
Old 09-04-2019, 02:25 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dalej42 View Post
Sorry, it completely skipped my mind. I had these picks plus had the He Hate Me draft while I was working. Glad to see we’ve made up pretty much all the time that was lost.
Well, that draft skipped my mind. Fuck me.
  #211  
Old 09-04-2019, 02:49 AM
Jules Andre is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Omniscient View Post
Well, that draft skipped my mind. Fuck me.
Wait, you skipped that draft and ended up with the team with the highest projected points?
  #212  
Old 09-04-2019, 07:16 AM
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I'm glad we'll get the draft done before the opener, but just in case I can't get to a computer to set my lineup on Thursday, I just wanted to make it known that I intend to start Aaron Jones and Jimmy Graham.
  #213  
Old 09-04-2019, 07:38 AM
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4.07 Dare Ogunbawale, RB, TB
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  #214  
Old 09-04-2019, 10:59 AM
Omniscient is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jules Andre View Post
Wait, you skipped that draft and ended up with the team with the highest projected points?
Yup....having decent keepers helped, but the autodrafter took Zeke, Bears D, Legatron, and Kittle plus backups at every position. Having the top 1 or 2 prospects at 4 different positions combined with no projected zero-point weeks due to byes is a good recipe for a high pre-season ranking. But we know those backup kickers and TEs are a poor investment in a keeper league.

Last edited by Omniscient; 09-04-2019 at 11:00 AM.
  #215  
Old 09-04-2019, 01:24 PM
Jules Andre is offline
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I'll go with the double stash

4.11 - Bryce Love, RB, Was

pm sent to Beef
  #216  
Old 09-04-2019, 02:09 PM
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5.02 Keke Coutee, WR, HOU

(dropped by Hamlet)

Jules has actually been updating the draft results as we go. I forgot about it. I should've mentioned it, since it's a good place to keep track and see who's still available. I didn't remember it until my last pick here and digging deep.
  #217  
Old 09-04-2019, 02:47 PM
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Rollin the dice on an IR stash.

5.06 Drew Lock, QB, Den
  #218  
Old 09-04-2019, 02:52 PM
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5.11 Devine Ozigbo, RB, Jax

Omni will finish us out with Mr Irrelevant 2019, and I'll have the results finalized and the waiver budget updated by this evening.
  #219  
Old 09-04-2019, 04:44 PM
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How about this......a starting RB on a likely playoff team as Mr. Irrelevant!

6.06 Mike Davis, RB Chi

Technically.
  #220  
Old 09-04-2019, 05:30 PM
Jules Andre is offline
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I think he was on a roster and retained
  #221  
Old 09-04-2019, 05:44 PM
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Yahoo shows him as available....let me know if I have to make a different pick.
  #222  
Old 09-04-2019, 05:51 PM
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He was kept by Retro. He was kept in round 19 on the link Beef posted. The players section of Yahoo doesn't seem to be updated for the draft results, likely because the draft hasn't been finalized.
  #223  
Old 09-04-2019, 05:58 PM
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Well that's very unhelpful of Yahoo.
  #224  
Old 09-04-2019, 06:37 PM
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Trying again.

6.06 Dexter Williams, RB, GB

Last edited by Omniscient; 09-04-2019 at 06:37 PM.
  #225  
Old 09-05-2019, 12:55 AM
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The draft has been entered and the season begun. Double check to make sure everything looks right. Make sure you put any players involved in the CHI/GB game tomorrow in starting positions.

Last edited by SenorBeef; 09-05-2019 at 12:56 AM.
  #226  
Old 09-05-2019, 02:20 AM
Ellis Dee is offline
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Nice, Beef, thanks much!

I went to check my roster just now and apparently all of yahoo is down, and has been for around 40 minutes. That's unsettling, though I would be shocked if it stayed down through kickoff.

I've agreed to a straight player swap with RNATB but will wait to let him post the details of the trade tomorrow (Thursday) to give him final confirmation.
  #227  
Old 09-05-2019, 05:15 AM
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I've set the FAAB dollars to add the additional $2 per place of finish (starting with 2nd place getting and extra $2, 3rd getting $4, etc.).

It's very important to set your rosters as soon as you can, especially if you have players on the Bears or Packers that you want to start.

I'll go through and do a team by team capsule going over the relative strength of each position group and the overall team rankings based on my preseason projections. I did this last year, which was a lot of fun for me. I hope other people enjoyed it, too. However, the team I picked to finish 12th, the New York Fanboys, won it all. So take it with a huge grain of salt.

For posterity, and because I strangely find it so, so interesting, here are the preseason Yahoo projections (through week 16):

1. HungryHungryHaruspex - 2236.97
2. Moridwon (Hamlet) - 2173.12
3. The Great Old Ones - 2049.31
4. New York Fanboys - 2022.18
5. Overly Sentimental - 1998.49
6. Ides of Martz - 1916.70
7. Nine Inch Neils - 1914.10
8. Exploding Pancakes - 1909.45
9. No Use For A Name - 1906.76
10. JB's Gusterrhoids - 1853.81
11. Isotopes - 1759.84
12. Warner's Brothers - 1757.33
  #228  
Old 09-05-2019, 07:29 AM
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Trade announcement!

RNATB gets David Njoku, TE-Cle.
Ellis gets TJ Hochenson, TE-Det.

Sent from my LG-H872 using Tapatalk
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  #229  
Old 09-08-2019, 08:21 AM
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Let's kick off the first full weekend of NFL football with team reviews and rankings, bitches!

Quick reminder on how these rankings are generated. I built an algorithm that blends together several pros' fantasy projections for the upcoming season, and then estimates future production with built-in, age-related decline. The numbers that are generated are done without my modification, editing, or manipulation.

The overall rating is a calculation of the fantasy production of each team's starters this season, and this should track fairly closely to Yahoo's season-long projected fantasy points.

Then each position group is broken down based on the projection of the total number of starters, plus one reserve. This makes it possible to have the best QB starter in the league, but rank low at the QB position if your top reserve is garbage.

Finally, "Youth" is calculated based on the total five-year fantasy projection for your starters only. This is where the age-related decline really comes into play.

One last note: In comparing this season with 2018, most teams scored in the same basic range. However, the bottom is lower (-3.0), and the top is much, much higher (+9.8). It looks like the age of parity from the past couple seasons has come to an end, and we are entering an age of a couple dominant teams with little challenge. It's worth mentioning that not one team had a rating above 78 last season, and the third place team this season is at 82.6. This is going to be a very top heavy season, and it would be a shock if the all-time scoring record was not broken this season by one of the top 3 teams.

We'll start with the 12th best team according to my ranking system. As a reminder, I had Ellis Dee here last season, so an early congratulations to our 2019 champion:

12. Warner's Brothers - dalej42 - 63.8 (2018: 70.5)
A return to the darkest corner of the cellar for a once surging franchise?

QB strength: 5th
Dale's roster is in dire need of a rebuild, which he has clearly scheduled for 2020. At QB, however, Dale is just fine. Wilson is still a top 5 option in dynasty, and Prescott could end up being the best reserve in this league. Rostering anyone else is probably a waste.

WR Strength: 12th
Losing Doug Baldwin hurt, but had Dale not traded for Amari Cooper, he would have fielded the worst WR group in the history of this league. Calvin Ridley could turn out to be an every-week flex start, but there's still a hole here. Dale will struggle every single week to find a flex to start.

RB Strength: 9th
Trading out of Gurley happened at probably the right time, but take it from someone who has experience doing so, it will suck to be on the other side of watching his games. He has at least 1-2 elite seasons left, right?

Speaking of trading out of a RB, I thought I had picked the right moment with Derrick Henry. And for 12 weeks, I was correct. Then he randomly decided to do everything he hadn't done for a few years. If he continues like his final month of 2018, Dale has a stud powering his RB group for a few years to come. I think that was a mirage, personally.

If James White slows down, Dale may set the all-time record for lowest team score over a season. The RB group is every bit as suspect as the WR group.

TE Strength: 12th
Dale traded for Ian Thomas, who will probably start for him next season and offers some elite athletic upside. For this season, this position is going to drag Dale down week to week, and I imagine he starts someone from the waiver wire most weeks.

Youth: 11th
Dale is very far behind the rest of the league for this season, but also being 11th in projected future production is a major concern. He is going to need to pitch a perfect game with his big 2020 draft to course correct this franchise.
  #230  
Old 09-08-2019, 08:25 AM
Jules Andre is offline
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11. JB's Gusterrhoids - Justin_Bailey - 68.7 (2018: 68.1)
When will the oldest team in the league finally break it down and rebuild?

QB strength: 6th
Drew Brees is obviously an elite option, though the Saints' transformation into a more running-based attack has finally come to fruition. Brees' production noticeably started to dip last season because of it. A new starter may be needed next season, and Justin wisely stocked up with Kyler Murray in reserve.

WR Strength: 6th
There's still a lot of production here, but it is likely that that both Edelman and Fitzgerald retire after this season. Justin badly needs a young WR1 for 2020, and it does not look like that guy is on this roster right now. As it stands, this ranking will nosedive next season.

RB Strength: 6th
This is a solid group, and the 6th place ranking is likely not very accurate. Few teams in this league go four deep at RB with starters, and when Miles Sanders takes over for Jordan Howard by week 11, this will be one of those teams. If Justin is going to outperform expectations this season, it will be on the strength of this group.

TE Strength: 6th
This group may be artificially inflated as Jimmy Graham (week 1 aside) is just barely start-worthy. There is not much else behind him, either.

Youth: 12th
This isn't even remotely close, either. My projections have Justin losing three starters next season, as well as a reserve RB (Frank Gore). These projections are always too aggressive about retiring players too early, but the end is near and Justin is in desperate need of an emergency rebuild. I just don't think the slow-motion rebuild is going to cut it.


10. Isotopes - Petey - 69.9 (2018: 71.6)
A top-heavy team that will climb quickly in the rankings, but is missing a few key pieces to truly compete.

QB strength: 11th
Aside from a rare few notable exceptions, people are generally underrating Lamar Jackson. There is no way this ranking is this low by next season when Jackson is a top 6 fantasy option. Haskins is a savvy reserve. I don't see any reason to roster 4 QBs when the future is set.

WR Strength: 8th
Mike Evans is a stud, and Cooper Kupp is one of my favorite receivers, but there is damn near nothing else beyond those two. I don't buy Metcalf's hype, but this team will need it to come to full bloom to have a chance.

RB Strength: 10th
Le'Veon and Josh Jacobs are a potentially potent 1-2, but what else is there? Peyton Barber is Just A Guy. There is literally nothing else on the roster behind that. Oh, wait, there's a FB.

TE Strength: 8th
Delanie Walker has a good season left, maybe two. Wise of Petey to draft an inevitable replacement, but Irv Smith Jr. has to really pop, really quickly, because Jack Doyle ain't it.

Youth: 9th
This team actually looks a lot better here than the ranking suggests. Having even a league-average option at TE for the next few seasons, plus a flex who projects to have a job next season, would put this team in the upper half of the league for future rankings.
  #231  
Old 09-08-2019, 08:28 AM
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9. Ides of Martz - Omniscient - 72.9 (2018: 69.7)
Andrew Luck's retirement really set this perenially-lurking-but-not-quite-competing team back

QB strength: 12th
Quarterbacks score so many points that punting this position really sabotages a team. Not that Omni is to blame, of course. I'm not sure the rest of the roster is set enough to support a win-now type of trade, so patience here is the only real option.

WR Strength: 3rd
For as long as I have been in the league, Omni has had a strong position here. It's no different this year, and Omni looks set to have a top-half ranking for as long as Julio Jones remains a top-3 dynasty player. So, years.

RB Strength: 12th
12th at QB and 12th at RB is how you end up in the bottom four of the league, despite studs elsewhere. Omni has the WR depth to acquire a good, consistent starting RB. It's just a matter of actually being open to trading, which is something Omni has not historically done. At least according to the trade logs, the last time Omni was involved in a trade was 08/26/2015.

TE Strength: 7th
Mark Andrews has a ton of buzz and hype this preseason, and he could carry this position for years if he fulfills his promise. I think he will, and Kyle Rudolph is a fantastic short-term reserve. It's the strength of the two that buoys this ranking.

Youth: 6th
This roster is relevant and constantly lurking around the playoffs, and will continue to do so for a while. I especially like the picks Omni made in this draft, so there's some potential down the road.


8. Exploding Pancakes - SenorBeef - 73.4 (2018: 74.5)
A once-mighty powerhouse brought well and truly low.

QB strength: 7th
Last season, Beef ranked 11th even with Rodgers because he had nothing in reserve. This season he has a couple good options, but neither has really delivered just yet. The Rodgers window could be open another seven years. It could close in two. I suspect that the eventual captain of Beef's squad is not currently on the roster.

WR Strength: 5th
In retrospect, it was a strange decision of mine to be so certain Lockett would be a top 12 WR, and then deal him for a short term championship run. While he will almost certainly regress from last season, he's a solid every-week starter.

The last time T.Y. Hilton was thrown to by a backup Colt, he had a terrible season. Now that AB is in New England, Josh Gordon won't see nearly as many targets, and Allen Robinson is still at the mercy of a potentially bad QB. This ranking could plummet by next season.

RB Strength: 11th
This ranking is an anchor dragging the squad down moreso than any other aspect of the team. Nick Chubb is every bit the stud that Beef thought he could be, but potential disaster looms after Kareem Hunt comes back. Say, by week 10, Chubb finds himself in a 50/50 timeshare. By that time, Jordan Howard will be on the short end of his own timeshare. And, while unlikely, Montgomery may continue to be the third option in a 3-way hydra of a timeshare, too. If this team has any playoff potential, it will officially die by that time.

TE Strength: 9th
Evan Engram is a top-5 option on his own, but there's nothing else behind him on this team, so the ranking suffers. Personally, I think Engram has suspect hands and has never risen to his vast opportunity, so 9th might end up being about right.

Youth: 7th
Rodgers, Hilton, and Gordon are all getting up in years at their respective positions. Even Lockett is about to start his age 27 season, so decline becomes more and more likely beyond this season. The cupboard isn't empty, but Beef will need this year's draft to pan out. There's a lot of potential there, so it could work out.
  #232  
Old 09-08-2019, 08:32 AM
Jules Andre is offline
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7. Nine Inch Neils - Really Not All That Bright - 73.9 (2018: 73.3)
Once the scariest team in the league, this roster epitomizes why dynasty is so fun.

QB strength: 3rd
It seems like Matt Ryan vascillates between being a fantasy stud and a disappointment year to year. As of right now? Stud. It does appear that we are in the middle of his peak, so there needs to be a plan for his replacement. I don't think Jameis is it, although he and Arians could be a perfect match for a couple years.

WR Strength: 11th
Oh, how the mighty have fallen. Last season this ranking was 3rd, and it surprised me for being that low. Hopkins is still the most dominant receiver in the league, nothing new. But even though Chris Godwin is an uber popular breakout candidate, Tyreek Hill is gone, Marvin Jones aged five years in two seasons, and there is a whole lot of nothing beyond that. The long-time strength of this team, the unshakable foundation upon which the team was built, has shattered.

RB Strength: 5th
Bringing in Fournette was a huge and needed upgrade, and many think he will bounce back and finally return on his hype. Ingram is still going strong and found a solid landing spot. Phillip Lindsay was a great value as a FAAB add. This is a good mix of youth and production, but it would really help if Hunt came back and had a consistent role.

TE Strength: 11th
This ranking was also 3rd last season, and it was just as shocking for the opposite reason. I thought there was nothing worthwhile here last season, and that prediction bore fruit. This year there is a rookie TE and newly-acquired David Njoku. Njoku has tons of potential, but the targets may be lacking. Tons of long-term upside here, but not a lot you can count on this season.

Youth: 8th
This ranking is suppressed by Mark Ingram being old for a RB, and Matt Ryan beginning his decline within the next season or two. If Leonard Fournette doesn't make good on his third chance, and Chris Godwin isn't what everyone expects, things will go south for this roster quickly.


6. New York Fanboys - Ellis Dee - 73.9 (2018: 66.8)
The defending champion defied all expectation last season and still gets no respect.

QB strength: 4th
I am very disappointed that Ellis can drop Eli Manning and nobody says a single thing about it. Everyone in this league needs to wake up!

Baker is a top 5 dynasty QB and looks to carry Ellis to a competitive team for the decade. Big Ben doesn't have nearly as much time, but quietly keeps putting up top 3 fantasy finishes. He's the surefire Hall of Fame QB that Eli wishes he was. Mariota is a waste of a roster spot at this point.

WR Strength: 9th
The Jarvis Landry Experiment did not pan out, and he will slowly return diminished value year after year while having an absurdly low ceiling. Sterling Shepard is good, but the fit isn't. And while I like Dante Pettis, I am starting to think his team doesn't. A lot has to go right for this group to be even league average, and I just don't see it all happening. Certainly not this year.

RB Strength: 7th
Christian McCaffrey is an elite, dynasty-carrying beast. It was fortunate that he fell to 4th for you in that draft because I was an idiot.

Damien Williams was a fantastic find that catapulted your team to an unlikely championship, but his dynasty value was never as high as everyone claimed. The Chiefs drafting a runner, and signing a runner, was the nail in that coffin. Carlos Hyde was toast last season and probably won't be startable on a competitive roster. After that? Trenton Cannon. Decent prospect. Not saving this team this season. You really better hope for another Williams-level miracle in free agency.

TE Strength: 1st
When you have Travis Kelce, it doesn't really matter what else you have, you'll have the top-ranked unit. Moving Kelce was absolutely a mistake on my part, and I regret it now.

Youth: 5th
My own subjective analysis is that Ellis' team is a middling unit that will need lucky breaks to make the playoffs. It happened last season and couldn't have gone better. There is no denying that the starting lineup has more questions than answers. But between McCaffrey, Mayfield, and Kelce, there's a pretty youthful core group that could be built up into a perennial contender. It wouldn't be that hard to do, so Ellis is in a great spot.
  #233  
Old 09-08-2019, 08:37 AM
Jules Andre is offline
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5. No Use For A Name - RetroVertigo - 75.0 (2018: 77.5)
Every year this squad ranks highly, and every year some bullshit trips this team up.

QB strength: 8th
I think a lot of people would have said Tom Brady couldn't be counted on as a starter this season. Now that AB has signed, he'll probably be a top 3 finisher, yet again. Kurt Cousins is a really terrific reserve, but assuming Brady retires at some point in the next 10 years (maybe), I would not want to start Cousins every week.

WR Strength: 10th
Another season, another injury for A.J. Green. He's still a stud when he plays, but that is happening with decreasing frequency. Because of the missed time, his fantasy impact is more like a mid-tier WR instead of an elite one. Curtis Samuel is everyone's favorite sleeper pick, and combined with Westbrook, Sutton, and Fuller, there's a chance that this group jumps to a top-3 ranking in the league and doesn't leave for seven years. There is an absolute abundance of upside riches at this spot, and it would take an unprecedented disaster for none of these guys to pan out.

RB Strength: 2nd
For as long as I have been in the league, this has been the strongest RB group. Zeke, Dalvin, and MGIII each have top 5 potential, if they could all actually play at the same time. Even just two of them playing 16 games could make this team a playoff buzzsaw.

Outside of them, Retro might struggle to find spot start options until his RB Cerberus gets up to speed. Latavius Murray is a good fit for the Ingram role in New Orleans, but how much work will he get? Mike Davis is apparently the lead back in Chicago? How long does that last, and is he startable with 10 touches a game? Darwin Thompson was another guy who graced almost every sleeper list, but now he's buried on a depth chart that does not look forgiving. With the WRs being a season away from reliable productivity, there might need to be a move made here if MGIII is going to miss closer to 8 or 9 games.

TE Strength: 4th
I've never been a big fan of O.J. Howard, but Arians' system could work really well for him. He just doesn't see enough targets to deserve this ranking, to me; but, with Ebron in reserve, it makes sense.

Youth: 10th
The RBs are all young, which is all that matters for this team. What drags them down is that Brady can't be counted on even next season, and the WRs, while young as well, haven't proven it yet. This rating will shoot up next season if only a couple of the young WRs make a leap.


4. The Great Old Ones - Ol'Gaffer - 75.6 (2018: 77.7)
A scary good team that doesn't need much to win it all.

QB strength: 10th
Cam Newton, if actually healthy, is plenty good enough to carry this team to the title. He changed his throwing motion to protect his shoulder, but that is the type of muscle memory that can't be overwritten in a single offseason. If it works, great. If not, Matt Stafford is no longer a startable fantasy QB in a 12 team league.

WR Strength: 7th
Odell is the type of player who will compete for a #1 overall WR finish each season. There's Tyrell Williams, who just got hooked up by AB bailing on the Raiders; except, his fit with Derek Carr is pretty terrible. Robby Anderson is an upside deep threat who is worthy of a flex start, and Emmanuel Sanders may have another season as a useful flex player himself. Outside of that, there is not much that can be counted on this season. If this team is going to miss the playoffs, it would be because this group couldn't lock down the four starting spots.

RB Strength: 8th
Derrius Guice is going to get way more work than people projected, and combined with Kamara, this group is plenty good enough to contend. Ogunbowale was a savvy late-round pick, and LeSean McCoy probably has a few good starts left (if you know which ones they are in advance). The ranking isn't great, but this group will be fine.

TE Strength: 2nd
As an Eagles' fan, I obviously love Ertz. I do think he will not come close to last season's totals, but he's still a top option. Greg Olsen can't be counted on as a reserve if something happens to Ertz.

And if Gronk submarined my season last year and comes back as a dominant force again after I dropped him, I will actually set myself on fire.

Youth: 4th
This is a very competitive roster with no real holes and only relative weaknesses. That it is also in the top third in projected performance over the next five years is pretty scary.
  #234  
Old 09-08-2019, 08:42 AM
Jules Andre is offline
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3. Overly Sentimental - Overly Sentimental - 82.6 (2018: 67.3)
Big trades sparked a huge turn around, and a new contender enters the fray

QB strength: 2nd
Deshaun Watson was doing Patrick Mahomes things before Mahomes was even starting. It's easy to forget that. Even without a GM, the Texans recognize that they have to do whatever it takes to protect Watson. As for Overly, he's set at this position for a decade. Even if Watson does get hurt again, Goff can fill in. I wouldn't want to start him for an entire season, but he can keep a playoff run alive.

WR Strength: 4th
The Antonio Brown thing could have gone a hundred different ways, and it very nearly hurt this team pretty badly. Without him, there's still Davante Adams (who is a top 5 dynasty WR), but then almost nothing else whatsoever. With Brown now in New England, Overly gets a boon that could very well lead him to having two of the top 5 WRs this season, and an eventual championship

RB Strength: 4th
This is where Overly's diligent work in the offseason has paid off. This position was barren and hopeless last season (12th ranking), but is suddenly bolstered and refreshed. Even if Gurley can't stay healthy, Overly shrewdly maneuvered his way into getting Gurley's heir to the offense. If Kerryon Johnson gets enough of the load this season, Overly has a huge advantage at RB over almost every other team in the league. Well managed.

TE Strength: 10th
If there's a position to punt, this is the one. Except... Overly has Kittle, so he isn't punting it. What hurts his ranking is that there is literally not one backup on the roster, and the first reserve is counted in the rankings. Overly will have to sacrifice a goat a week to the fantasy gods to keep Kittle healthy.

Youth: 2nd
Part of what really rockets this ranking is that Deshaun Watson is so valuable by himself. Even then, only four teams have a lower average years of experience amongst their starters than Overly's (4.0 years). I think Gurley won't last long enough to really count for Overly's future plans, but Henderson is there to pick up the slack. This team will be good for a long time, especially if they can find a WR to replace Antonio Brown when he inevitably forgets to take his feet out of a mud bath and they are encased in stone.


2. Moridwon - Hamlet - 85.7 (2018: 69.9)
Such an incredible roster top-to-bottom that Hamlet will struggle to find cuts to earn even two picks a year for the next five seasons.

QB strength: 1st
Hamlet backed into Mahomes and it turned his entire franchise around. It just goes to show that none of us know anything and this is all a crap shoot.

Mahomes is not going to throw for 50 TDs and 5,000 yards a year. His projections essentially say he will do that again and again and again, which he won't. But even 4,500 yards and 40 TDs is enough to get Hamlet to the title game every season.

WR Strength: 1st
In retrospect, more often than not the trades I have made in this league have seen me on the losing side. Even so, giving up JuJu Smith-Schuster for Peyton Barber and Geronimo Allison has to be one of the worst losses in the history of this league. Now, Hamlet has two of the top five, and three of the top ten, dynasty WRs in the league. In a sport shifting to a game built around the pass, this will be an ever-increasing advantage for Hamlet.

RB Strength: 3rd
This ranking would have been a little lower had I not foolishly given away Chris Carson for nothing. David Johnson is very likely to return to his top-5 ways this season, and Marlon Mack and Carson form a formidable trio that will give Hamlet an advantage in almost every week. There's even some young upside on the bench should any of those three falter, so this ranking likely won't get any lower for years to come.

TE Strength: 3rd
Jared Cook was a huge surprise last season, but he's not going to repeat those numbers. Even if he doesn't, Vance McDonald is a very popular sleeper pick, and Darren Waller's hype just got kicked into high gear. This position is a really good example of why Hamlet is consistently managing his team better than anyone else, and has done so for years.

Youth: 3rd
This team is going to be dominant for a long time, without needing to do anything. Hamlet could go afk for five years and come back to three championships and a top roster. But, before you do, remember that Varlos probably thought the same thing before he was Raptured away. Or snapped away. Or blipped, whatever.
  #235  
Old 09-08-2019, 08:45 AM
Jules Andre is offline
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1. HungryHungryHaruspex - Jules Andre - 87.5 (2018: 77.3)
The rich get richer. But it might all be a house of cards.

*Just a reminder that these numbers are based on projections I have no part of, and do not modify in any way.

QB strength: 9th
This was 5th last season, and I felt pretty confident with it. This season, I have far more doubts. If Wentz stays healthy and the Eagles' offense is as good as it is projected to be, I'll be fine. He's the 4th or 5th best dynasty QB for a reason. If he slips, I only have Garoppolo in reserve, and Jimmy GQ looked abysmal this preseason. I may have the highest rated team, but it'll be here where I win or lose.

WR Strength: 2nd
Nobody comes even remotely close to matching Hamlet's top three, but I may have the best top 4, even after trading away Amari Cooper. As it is, I have three of the top 13 dynasty WRs, and four of the top 16. But there is some lingering uncertainty here that gives me pause. Tyreek Hill finally gives me the potential to have someone finish as the overall WR1 (which he did in 2018); however, if Mahomes regresses, Hill will naturally follow.

The Brandin Cooks trade really worked out, but he's stuck in a very crowded Rams offense. Stefon Diggs is one of my favorite players; unfortunately, the Vikings want to run more, and that offense might not have enough volume to keep Diggs in the top 12. D.J. Moore looks to be the explosive home run threat I predicted, but can Cam stay healthy long enough to get Moore his touches?

Corey Davis is still someone I love to watch play because his film is still so incredibly good. I just hope he gets to play with a compentent QB before he loses a step, because the separation he can create is so, so pretty.

If I had to bet on one of the deep bench WRs actually developing into a WR1 in fantasy, I might bet on Terry McLaurin. I was thrilled to get him in the draft as late as I did. Between his outrageous speed, surprising technical chops, and history/rapport with his QB of the future, everything is lined up for him to turn into a stud.

RB Strength: 1st
This position is the reason my ranking is so high. My RB group is about 20% better than the second best group. That difference is the equivalent of getting to start an extra player that runs 150 times for 750 yards and 6 touchdowns over a season.

I bet the farm on Saquon and hit the jackpot, and with Mixon proving he is a elite runner even on a bad team, I have two of the top 5 dynasty RBs. But, like every other position, my team carries far more uncertainty than other contenders. It's generally not good to have a RB on a bad team, and I have the starting runner on three of the worst teams in football (counting Drake and the Dolphins).

James Conner is not someone I anticipated picking up, and he's not someone I am completely sold on. Then again, Yahoo projects him to finish as the #6 RB this season, so hopefully I can hitch my wagon to him and get a ride to the title.

Beyond the starters, Kenyan Drake is the best 4th RB in the league (as of right now) and a legitimate flex start in his own right. I always like to have one deep stash guy that acts as a lottery ticket, and I'm hoping Bryce Love is that guy. The speed will come back once he is healthy, but the opportunity might not be there for 3-4 years. And maybe only on another team. It'll be interesting to see if his game can translate, because it was not long ago that he was going to be every bit the rookie dynamo that Barkley was.

TE Strength: 5th
I finally get to see Hunter Henry take over as the starting TE on an offense that has historically been very friendly to that guy. I've said it before, but Henry is the next Jason Witten, and I'm excited to see him finally get to prove it. Then again, he's coming off an ACL injury and my only backup is not even a starter on his own team. So, this could go badly for me very easily.

Youth: 1st
I have the youngest team by far, averaging only 2.9 years in the league. My original plan was to build a young team with which I could open a 3-4 year window to win a title. My team is young enough that the window might be closer to 6-8 years. Then again, things change so fast in the NFL and fantasy football, and my roster has so much uncertainty, that I wouldn't be surprised if I didn't win a single title in that time.
  #236  
Old 09-08-2019, 11:29 AM
Ellis Dee is offline
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Too much, not enough time to read it all before kickoff! I love reading these rankings, and very much appreciate them.

Of course I went straight to my team, and my only quibble is that Daniel Jones didn't even merit a mention while Mariota did.
  #237  
Old 09-08-2019, 04:08 PM
Jules Andre is offline
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Originally Posted by Jules Andre View Post
Looks like it. The most baffling, improbable result of week 1 caused my defense to score the lowest possible score. Highest projected team score in the league, second lowest actual score. I see fantasy football hasn't changed.
That is from week one of last season. This happens over and over, week after week, year after year. God, do I hate fantasy football. Every season I forget why, and every season I am reminded.
  #238  
Old 09-08-2019, 08:02 PM
Ellis Dee is offline
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Apparently Baker Mayfield (9.75) sucks ass while Marcus Mariota (24.80) is the next Drew Brees. Who knew?

I was on the fence between starting the Jets or Browns DEF; yahoo projected them to score 11.50 and 11.57 respectively, and since they were both playing scrubs (Bills and Titans) I decided to let yahoo break the tie. BIG mistake; starting the Browns instead of the Jets cost me 27 points. Ouch!

Christian McCaffrey continues to be just a flat-out stud, scoring 37.90 on opening day. Too bad it was in a losing effort for my team, which was projected to win by double digits. (I'm now projected to lose by 24+.)

My new guys are looking solid:

28.70 Marquise Brown, WR, Bal
22.10 TJ Hockenson, TE, Det

Very nice! I should start these guys someday...

Last edited by Ellis Dee; 09-08-2019 at 08:04 PM.
  #239  
Old 09-08-2019, 08:11 PM
Hamlet is offline
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Originally Posted by Ellis Dee View Post
My new guys are looking solid:

28.70 Marquise Brown, WR, Bal
22.10 TJ Hockenson, TE, Det

Very nice! I should start these guys someday...
If you're like me, it is the fact you had them on the bench that made them score well. The second you start them, that scoring will disappear.
  #240  
Old 09-08-2019, 08:17 PM
Ellis Dee is offline
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100%
  #241  
Old 09-09-2019, 10:09 AM
Really Not All That Bright is offline
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Originally Posted by Really Not All That Bright View Post
Trade announcement!

RNATB gets David Njoku, TE-Cle.
Ellis gets TJ Hochenson, TE-Det.

Sent from my LG-H872 using Tapatalk
Oops. Though in my defense, I needed a TE who will produce this season since I can't rely on Reed, and I didn't think Hochenson or Fant would be immediately productive because rookie TEs rarely are.
__________________
This can only end in tears.
  #242  
Old 09-09-2019, 12:12 PM
RetroVertigo is offline
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1.08 Darwin Thompson RB KC
Like I said at the time a bit of a reach, but with the remaining RBs on the board I thought he had the most upside. In that offense he'll get his chances, but will he make the most of it seems to be the question. I was planning after the NFL draft at going WR here but I saw that after my top 3 RBs I have no depth (especially with Gordon holding out) so because of our tendency to go RB heavy I played right into that inclination.

2.08 Miles Boykin WR Bal
Well Brown had himself a day didn't he? Actually they both had a good start to the year. Boykin was my number 2 WR (from a skills standpoint), but because of the Ravens offense I probably wouldn't have taken him before some of the other WRs if I had an earlier pick, but I was happy to get him. Now we will see if that was just the product of a poor Miami D.

3.08 KeeSean Johnson WR Ari
I was happy to have him land here as he is most likely Fitzgerald's replacement and along side Kirk should have some good opportunities. I was a little worried during the 1st half with Murray's performance, but he seemed to settle down. He did have 5 balls batted down and I think his height will be an issue for him and could limit the WRs effectiveness.
  #243  
Old 09-09-2019, 12:32 PM
Omniscient is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jules Andre View Post
9. Ides of Martz - Omniscient - 72.9 (2018: 69.7)

WR Strength: 3rd
For as long as I have been in the league, Omni has had a strong position here. It's no different this year, and Omni looks set to have a top-half ranking for as long as Julio Jones remains a top-3 dynasty player. So, years.

8. Exploding Pancakes - SenorBeef - 73.4 (2018: 74.5)

WR Strength: 5th
In retrospect, it was a strange decision of mine to be so certain Lockett would be a top 12 WR, and then deal him for a short term championship run. While he will almost certainly regress from last season, he's a solid every-week starter.

The last time T.Y. Hilton was thrown to by a backup Colt, he had a terrible season. Now that AB is in New England, Josh Gordon won't see nearly as many targets, and Allen Robinson is still at the mercy of a potentially bad QB. This ranking could plummet by next season.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jules Andre View Post
3. Overly Sentimental - Overly Sentimental - 82.6 (2018: 67.3)
WR Strength: 4th
The Antonio Brown thing could have gone a hundred different ways, and it very nearly hurt this team pretty badly. Without him, there's still Davante Adams (who is a top 5 dynasty WR), but then almost nothing else whatsoever. With Brown now in New England, Overly gets a boon that could very well lead him to having two of the top 5 WRs this season, and an eventual championship


2. Moridwon - Hamlet - 85.7 (2018: 69.9)
WR Strength: 1st
In retrospect, more often than not the trades I have made in this league have seen me on the losing side. Even so, giving up JuJu Smith-Schuster for Peyton Barber and Geronimo Allison has to be one of the worst losses in the history of this league. Now, Hamlet has two of the top five, and three of the top ten, dynasty WRs in the league. In a sport shifting to a game built around the pass, this will be an ever-increasing advantage for Hamlet.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jules Andre View Post
1. HungryHungryHaruspex - Jules Andre - 87.5 (2018: 77.3)
WR Strength: 2nd
Nobody comes even remotely close to matching Hamlet's top three, but I may have the best top 4, even after trading away Amari Cooper. As it is, I have three of the top 13 dynasty WRs, and four of the top 16. But there is some lingering uncertainty here that gives me pause. Tyreek Hill finally gives me the potential to have someone finish as the overall WR1 (which he did in 2018); however, if Mahomes regresses, Hill will naturally follow.

The Brandin Cooks trade really worked out, but he's stuck in a very crowded Rams offense. Stefon Diggs is one of my favorite players; unfortunately, the Vikings want to run more, and that offense might not have enough volume to keep Diggs in the top 12. D.J. Moore looks to be the explosive home run threat I predicted, but can Cam stay healthy long enough to get Moore his touches?

Corey Davis is still someone I love to watch play because his film is still so incredibly good. I just hope he gets to play with a compentent QB before he loses a step, because the separation he can create is so, so pretty.

If I had to bet on one of the deep bench WRs actually developing into a WR1 in fantasy, I might bet on Terry McLaurin. I was thrilled to get him in the draft as late as I did. Between his outrageous speed, surprising technical chops, and history/rapport with his QB of the future, everything is lined up for him to turn into a stud.
Trying to reverse engineer this a bit for my own narcissistic reasons. Looking to understand how these are weighted on the "dynasty" aspects versus the winning this year as illustrated by these WR ranks.

Here's the rosters:
1. Hamlet:
Michael Thomas, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Keenan Allen, Tyler Boyd, Mike Williams, Christian Kirk, Michael Gallup, Marquise Lee

2. Jules:
Tyreek Hill, Brandin Cooks, Stefon Diggs, DJ Moore, Anthony Miller, Albert Wilson, James Washington, Hakeem, Butler, Terry McLaurin, Preston Williams

3. Omni:
Julio Jones, Kenny Golladay, Golden Tate, Adam Thielen, Robert Woods, JJ Arcega-Whiteside, Jakobi Meyers

4. Overly:
Davante Adams, Sammy Watkins, Antonio Brown, Paul Richardson, DaVante Parker, Adam Humphries, Randall Cobb, John Ross

5. Beef:
TY Hilton, Tyler Lockett, Josh Gordon, Allen Robinson, Keke Coutee, Deebo Samuel, Andy Isabella, Damion Willis, Robert Foster, Antonio Callaway, Chris Conley

I bolded who I think are the top 4 since that the max you can start. Do those rankings pass the smell test? I wouldn't say that there's a clear outlier, but it's a little interesting how depth and age appear to influence things. Can't decide myself if I agree or disagree overall.

Hamlet is I think the most suspect ranking. Thomas and JJ make as good a 1-2 as any, but I don't think there's really much separation there either. Allen and Williams injury history (and River's age) pushes them down quite a lot in my mind but the SD offense has long been on my "stay away" list so maybe I'm too biased. Kirk is interesting but I can't say much for the depth and dynasty upside there.

Jules is crazy deep and I like the dynasty upside a lot, but I think my top 5 are quite a bit better. Depth is probably my biggest liability but if we're looking at 2019 prospects, I like my group a fair bit better.

Overly would have been a distant 5th before this weekends games in my mind, but with Brown's cozy landing spot and Watkins & Ross' big days, he's got a much stronger case in retrospect. That said, when these rankings were provided I probably would have agreed with the placement mostly on the backs of that Adams-Brown combo because the dynasty upside is shaky at best.

Beef's probably got both the weakest top 2 and the second weakest top 4 but he went really really hard on dynasty upside. Didn't seem to influence his ranking all that much.

Not sure what my overall point is, but this is interesting I think.

Last edited by Omniscient; 09-09-2019 at 12:33 PM.
  #244  
Old 09-10-2019, 02:17 AM
Overly Sentimental is offline
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Some postdraft and week 1 thoughts:
I'm really pleased I managed to pull off the Gurley trade as easily as I did. I think he's a transcendent talent, though I may have given up a shot at years 3-5 for years 1-2. It all just fell into place when I had m. Brown in the bench and knew I could get the new guy at 1.04. I was thinking I'd be able to start Gurley and Henderson most weeks and just vacuum it all up but browns tds yesterday will complicate that. I hope the Johnson's will be enough depth.
I was about to lose it when I couldn't move AB during his shenanigans, but now that he parlayed it into playing for the Pats (!!!) I'm about as happy as a pig in shit. It's clearly the best possible landing for him. TB may not be able to do it all anymore but he can still hit an open man, and nobody gets open better. Adams is the core of this corps for the next half decade, and I still feel like it's time to get in on Watkins, and to a lesser extent, Ross and Parker.
I consciously decided to forgo depth at TE because I feel like everybody outside the top 3-4 is replacement level.
Have to love my qb situation also. I'm higher on Watson than even Mahomes long-term, at least til I see the latter do it without Reid. I think Watson will be the anchor of this squad for as long I care to forecast, and Goff behind him is as good of a backup as you could hope for.
All in all, I'm thinking this can be a banner year with a couple good breaks, and I'm certainly more interested in this team than I was a year ago.
  #245  
Old 09-10-2019, 02:34 AM
Jules Andre is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Omniscient View Post
Trying to reverse engineer this a bit for my own narcissistic reasons. Looking to understand how these are weighted on the "dynasty" aspects versus the winning this year as illustrated by these WR ranks.
Thanks for responding! It's more fun when people engage, and especially to disagree. The team and positional rankings are just projected scoring for this season. Only the Youth ranking factors in how your starters are projected to do beyond this season.

Quote:
I bolded who I think are the top 4 since that the max you can start. Do those rankings pass the smell test? I wouldn't say that there's a clear outlier, but it's a little interesting how depth and age appear to influence things. Can't decide myself if I agree or disagree overall.
With the exception of TE, every positional ranking is your max number of starters plus one. So, for WRs, it counts every team's top five. This is because that 5th WR could see a start during bye weeks, depending on how a team's roster is constructed. For TE, it is just the top 2 because very few people would ever start 2 during the bye weeks to make a third relevant.

Quote:
Jules is crazy deep and I like the dynasty upside a lot, but I think my top 5 are quite a bit better. Depth is probably my biggest liability but if we're looking at 2019 prospects, I like my group a fair bit better.
If we just count the top four, which my ranking does not but I think you may have due to the bolding you chose (despite the number 5 in the quoted post), your top 4 are indeed better than mine. The difference is very slight, however. We're talking somewhere around 15-25 fantasy points over a season. However, Golden Tate being suspended means your 5th guy has a pretty depressed rating, which brought your ranking down. My 5th guy, Corey Davis, has had disappointing stats thus far in his career (and like everyone on my team, shit the bed week one), but still has an overall projection of a startable flex. He's high enough that he not only beats Golden Tate's projection, but makes up the slight difference from the top 4.

Quote:
Overly would have been a distant 5th before this weekends games in my mind, but with Brown's cozy landing spot and Watkins & Ross' big days, he's got a much stronger case in retrospect. That said, when these rankings were provided I probably would have agreed with the placement mostly on the backs of that Adams-Brown combo because the dynasty upside is shaky at best.

Beef's probably got both the weakest top 2 and the second weakest top 4 but he went really really hard on dynasty upside. Didn't seem to influence his ranking all that much.
Here's how each of the selected teams look at WR when you also include the projected scoring over the next five seasons (including this year). I've included the top 4 WRs, with the extra reserve WR in parentheses:

Ides of Martz: 193.4 (217.6)
Exploding Pancakes: 161.7 (188.3)
Overly Sentimental: 179.2 (205.6)
Moridwon: 210.9 (248)
HungryHungryHaruspex: 198.3 (234.3)

I think the only difference between us is that, while Julio Jones is still obviously elite, my projections have him starting his (slow) decline over the next five seasons. All of my guys are young enough to potentially grow, including my 5th guy. Golden Tate's age and production put him in sharp decline, and I am surprised my system has him lasting five years. That might actually be a glitch. You may take the second spot in both rankings if one of your other depth guys takes a leap. But, again, nobody comes close to Hamlet's group
  #246  
Old 09-10-2019, 08:55 AM
Hamlet is offline
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Nevermind

Last edited by Hamlet; 09-10-2019 at 08:56 AM. Reason: Ate my post
  #247  
Old 09-10-2019, 09:01 AM
Hamlet is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Omni
Hamlet is I think the most suspect ranking. Thomas and JJ make as good a 1-2 as any, but I don't think there's really much separation there either. Allen and Williams injury history (and River's age) pushes them down quite a lot in my mind but the SD offense has long been on my "stay away" list so maybe I'm too biased. Kirk is interesting but I can't say much for the depth and dynasty upside there.
Really. You can't say much for the depth and dynasty upside there? Wow, do we disagree. But who is surprised by that.

Thomas and Smith Schuster are top 5 dynasty WR's, Allen is #10, Boyd was the #20 scoring WR last year and will soon be the #1 on his team, Gallup just went off for almost 20 points, and Kirk has a ton of potential. Yes, Mike Williams is injured and Marquise Lee is hot garbage so far, but I'd put my top 2, top 3, top 4, top 5, or top 6 against yours over the next few years anyday.
  #248  
Old 09-10-2019, 09:40 AM
Justin_Bailey is offline
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Here's the full draft for bookkeeping purposes.

1.01 Petey - Josh Jacobs, RB, Oak
1.02 Beef - David Montgomery, RB, Chi
1.03 Justin - Miles Sanders, RB, Phi
1.04 Overly - Darrell Henderson, RB, LAR
1.05 Justin - Kyler Murray, QB, Arz
1.06 Omni - Justice Hill, RB, Bal
1.07 Gaffer - N'Keal Harry, WR, NE
1.08 Retro - Darwin Thompson, RB, KC
1.09 RNATB - T.J. Hockenson, TE, Det
1.10 Hamlet - Devin Singletary, RB, Buf
1.11 dale - Tony Pollard, RB, Dal
1.12 dale - Damien Harris, RB, NE

2.01 Petey - D.K. Metcalf, WR, Sea
2.02 Beef - Deebo Samuel, WR, SF
2.03 Justin - A.J. Brown, WR, Ten
2.04 Overly - Alexander Mattison, RB, Min
2.05 Ellis - Daniel Jones, QB, NYG
2.06 Omni - J.J. Arcega-Whiteside, WR, Phi
2.07 Gaffer - Parris Campbell, WR, Ind
2.08 Retro - Miles Boykin, WR, Bal
2.09 RNATB - Mecole Hardman, WR, KC
2.10 Hamlet - Darren Waller, TE, Oak
2.11 RNATB - Noah Fant, TE, Den
2.12 Ellis - Marquise Brown, WR, Bal

3.01 Petey - Dwayne Haskins, QB, Was
3.02 Beef - Andy Isabella, WR, Arz
3.03 Ellis - Jalen Hurd, WR, SF
3.04 Overly - Will Grier, QB, Car
3.05 Jules - Justin Jackson, RB, LAC
3.06 Omni - Nick Foles, QB, Jax
3.07 Gaffer - Ryquell Armstead, RB, Jax
3.08 Retro - KeeSean Johnson, WR, Arz
3.09 Jules - Terry McLaurin, WR, Was
3.11 Jules - Preston Williams, WR, Mia
3.12 Jules - Hakeem Butler, WR, Ari

4.01 Petey - Irv Smith, Jr., TE, Min
4.02 Beef - Damion Willis, WR, Cin
4.04 dale - Dallas, DEF
4.05 dale - Cam Sims, WR, Was
4.06 Omni - Jakobi Meyers, WR, NE
4.07 Gaffer - Dare Ogunbawale, RB, TB
4.11 Jules - Bryce Love, RB, Was

5.02 Beef - Keke Coutee, WR, HOU
5.06 Omni - Drew Lock, QB, Den
5.11 Jules - Devine Ozigbo, RB, Jax

6.06 Omni - Dexter Williams, RB, GB
  #249  
Old 09-10-2019, 09:48 AM
Justin_Bailey is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jules Andre View Post
11. JB's Gusterrhoids - Justin_Bailey - 68.7 (2018: 68.1)
When will the oldest team in the league finally break it down and rebuild?

QB strength: 6th
Drew Brees is obviously an elite option, though the Saints' transformation into a more running-based attack has finally come to fruition. Brees' production noticeably started to dip last season because of it. A new starter may be needed next season, and Justin wisely stocked up with Kyler Murray in reserve.

WR Strength: 6th
There's still a lot of production here, but it is likely that that both Edelman and Fitzgerald retire after this season. Justin badly needs a young WR1 for 2020, and it does not look like that guy is on this roster right now. As it stands, this ranking will nosedive next season.

RB Strength: 6th
This is a solid group, and the 6th place ranking is likely not very accurate. Few teams in this league go four deep at RB with starters, and when Miles Sanders takes over for Jordan Howard by week 11, this will be one of those teams. If Justin is going to outperform expectations this season, it will be on the strength of this group.

TE Strength: 6th
This group may be artificially inflated as Jimmy Graham (week 1 aside) is just barely start-worthy. There is not much else behind him, either.

Youth: 12th
This isn't even remotely close, either. My projections have Justin losing three starters next season, as well as a reserve RB (Frank Gore). These projections are always too aggressive about retiring players too early, but the end is near and Justin is in desperate need of an emergency rebuild. I just don't think the slow-motion rebuild is going to cut it.
This actually seems like a fair assessment.

I'm very happy with the Murray pick and I was thrilled that dale and I were able to work out a trade to make it happen. That might handicap me in 2020, but he seems like the real deal (though I would not be surprised if he goes back to baseball in the next 3-4 years).

That would certainly fit a pattern as every time I try to get younger my draft just seems to go sideways. Zay Jones was the BPA at WR at my pick two years ago and while he's not quite a bust yet, he's not the instant #1 that he was projected as either. And last year, I went all-in on Royce Freeman and that's currently looking like a mistake, but who knows.

Maybe Miles Sanders and AJ Brown will turn my streak around. I like Brown and I think Corey Davis is a bust, so I'm hopeful he'll be a regular contributor sooner rather than later to offset Fitzgerald and Edelman retiring (and probably DeSean Jackson before too long as well).
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  #250  
Old 09-10-2019, 11:39 AM
Omniscient is offline
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Location: Chicago, IL, USA
Posts: 17,560
Who does your data tag as Hamlet's #5?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jules Andre View Post
Here's how each of the selected teams look at WR when you also include the projected scoring over the next five seasons (including this year). I've included the top 4 WRs, with the extra reserve WR in parentheses:

Ides of Martz: 193.4 (217.6)
Exploding Pancakes: 161.7 (188.3)
Overly Sentimental: 179.2 (205.6)
Moridwon: 210.9 (248)
HungryHungryHaruspex: 198.3 (234.3)
This probably highlights a inherent challenge with that type of projection. Any team's top 5 in year 1 will be different than their top 5 in year 5 (and in most years in between).

Quote:
I think the only difference between us is that, while Julio Jones is still obviously elite, my projections have him starting his (slow) decline over the next five seasons. All of my guys are young enough to potentially grow, including my 5th guy. Golden Tate's age and production put him in sharp decline, and I am surprised my system has him lasting five years. That might actually be a glitch. You may take the second spot in both rankings if one of your other depth guys takes a leap. But, again, nobody comes close to Hamlet's group
I do largely expect that Tate's days are numbered, frankly I wouldn't be shocked if I'm dropping him in 2 years. But I think Corey Davis is and always has been fools gold, but if the "expert" rankings still like him that easily explains the disconnect.

Last edited by Omniscient; 09-10-2019 at 11:39 AM.
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