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#1




Pepsi Contest: Win a Billion Dollars
Yep, a real contest.
Check the payment schedule: "The Policy shall provide for payment of the One Billion Dollar Prize over 40 years pursuant to the following payment schedule: $5 million per year for each of years 1 through 20; $10 million per year for each of years 21 through 39 and a lump sum payment of $710 million in year 40 (the "40Year Payment Schedule"). " http://billionsweeps.yahoo.com/billi...tic/rules.html What are the odds? 
#2




Try non existant.
I mean first off you've got a 1 in a million chance of being selected for the game show... then you've got a 1 in a million chance of randomly selecting the billion dollar 6 digit number. 1000000X1000000 = 1,000,000,000,000 Wouldn't that be a 1 in a TRILLION occurance? 
#3




Of living long enough to collect it that final $710m payment? Depends on how old the winner is, among various and soundry other variables.
Of actually winning the prize? About zero for me, as I don't drink flat Coke. 
#4




You have to be a 'legal United States resident'.
Bummer.
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#5




CRorex wrote
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Poor Berkshire Hathaway if someone actually wins. The odds of the thing actually paying off to anyone is 1/1,000 (assuming they get the full 1,000 entrants). 1/1,000 is pretty low, but it's far from impossible. I'm guessing Enki hit it on the head. They're counting on you dying before you get the bulk of it. 
#6




By the way, as the NPV of the Billion Dollars is really only $250m, (and that's not even including the idea that you could die and not collect the bulk of it), and since the odds are 1/1,000 that they'll give it away, their "average" payout will be $250,000 on that billion dollars. So the million dollar prize is actually a substantially larger piece of the prize package.
I wonder what WB is paying to cover the event. Also, as it's in Orlando I wouldn't be surprised if this thing is held at Disney World, and if so no doubt Disney is paying them as well. I wonder if Pepsi could even make money on this giveaway. 
#7




Bill H., the odds of winning a million dollars is 1/1000 once you've made the show. The odds of winning the billion dollars is 1/1,000,000. Multiple each of those numbers by the number of total entries, and you've got something close to 0.
I think I'll go hit on Natalie Portman. My chances look really good to me right now. 
#8




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The odds of SOMEONE winning something from the last 1,000 contestants is 100%.... someone will get 1 million dollars. There are 1,000,000 combinations of a 6 digit number (09 = 10 6 columns so 10^6). There will be 1,000 distinct numbers. Or .1% of the total combinations. The collective odds of SOMEONE picking the 1 billion dollar number  is 1:1000 Assuming that everyone in the country enters the contest: lets say since it's easier to work with300 million people (which is allowable under the rules) that you will be one of the 1000 people selected is 1:300000. Assuming that everyone has the same number of entries... Probably you'll have only maybe 100 million people responding and if 80% of them enter 300 entries 15% enter 200 times 4% enter 100 times and 1% enter 10 times you've got 27 billion 410 million entries... and if you enter once you've got a 1000 in 27,410,000,000 chance of being selected... or a 1:27 million chance After you get to the game show, you've got a 1:1000 chance of winning 1 million dollars. Or a 1:27 BILLION chance of winning with the second example. Or 1:3 million chance using the first example. The odds of winning 1 billion dollars would be 1000 times greater. Or 1:27 TRILLION and 1:3 BILLION We haven't even looked at the odds of GETTING a game piece yet, those need to be factored in which makes things ever chancier. You're better off hoping to win 15$. As for the payment schedual. It LOOKS as if they are using the same interest scheme the state lottos use. I mean think of how much money they'll make from the sale of pepsi products... They'll simply use the interest from what they sold to pay people off 
#9




The marketing guru behind this is a friggin genius. I mean, you tell people you're giving away $1 billion, but make it so difficult that you know you'll never have to pay up.
Oh, Pepsi will make money on this contest. Why else would they do it? They're a corporation, not philanthropists. Happy 


#10




Munch wrote
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By the way, I'm sure you meant divide by the number of entrants. 
#11




CRorex wrote
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Nothing to sneeze at mind you. But $120m is a very different number from the $650m you'd get from winning lotto. 
#12




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#13




The rule set doesn't say one way or another. Perhaps by not saying they're obligated to pay it out. Perhaps the actual contract says differently. I dunno.

#14




Didn't youse guys read the rules? You can opt for a onetime $250,000,000 payoff. So now I'm pretty much assured of winning, I think.
I have to go order some catalogs now... 
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